22 Unusual Suspect - Will get right back and run on into mid field ish, but he still won't get in the same TV frame as the winner.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)
- Thread starter sethlad
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- Oct 16, 2008
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Precedence.
Agree with above, doesn't stay and living on past achievements.
Agree with above, doesn't stay and living on past achievements.
23 Zabeelionaire - Ouch barrier, as he'd been ticking along well. Some sort of top 6 chance if he snags back to last then picks his way along the rail for 2200m.
- Oct 16, 2008
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Unusual Suspect.
Will run the trip unlike a few others and will beat a few home. Will be very fortunate to get in the prize money again though.
Will run the trip unlike a few others and will beat a few home. Will be very fortunate to get in the prize money again though.
24 Kelinni - In form and last start winners usually gets you a long way going into a Melb Cup. Has the boss on board and rating him a hell of a lot higher than the horse that beat him in the Metrop. based on him being trained by a bloke that actually knows what he's doing. He'll be in my tri for the minor possies.
- Oct 16, 2008
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Zabeelionaire.
The weight advantage has been cancelled out by the barrier. Just a very vanilla horse though, he will round a few up in the last 200 metres and sneak into the Top 10 but won't figure as a winning chance.
The weight advantage has been cancelled out by the barrier. Just a very vanilla horse though, he will round a few up in the last 200 metres and sneak into the Top 10 but won't figure as a winning chance.
- Oct 16, 2008
- 10,658
- 6,375
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Kelinni - Winning form is good form, Boss is a plus and will relish the distance but can't see him near the top 5.
Like:
Red Cadeaux because he's missed the handicapper this year.
Potting:
Dunaden because I think Americain beats him home (may still finish second in that case).
Green Moon & Lights Of Heaven as I don't think they'll stay and believe they're unders, despite not really being among the favoured runners.
Red Cadeaux because he's missed the handicapper this year.
Potting:
Dunaden because I think Americain beats him home (may still finish second in that case).
Green Moon & Lights Of Heaven as I don't think they'll stay and believe they're unders, despite not really being among the favoured runners.
- Oct 16, 2008
- 10,658
- 6,375
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Like - Red Cadeaux. Would be Americain if not for the hoof problems.
Potting - Dunaden. More of 2400m horse, weight swing to Red Cadeaux and Americain (who are 3200m horse imo) will be too large to overcome.
Potting - Dunaden. More of 2400m horse, weight swing to Red Cadeaux and Americain (who are 3200m horse imo) will be too large to overcome.
toxic
Hall of Famer
Mt Athos to beat MQFP then fiorente running into 3rd, = a lazy 2K tri, good luck to all on a very very tuff days punting
- Oct 16, 2008
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Looks good and we seem to agree.
Amercain gets a 4.5kg weight swing off Dunaden from last year. That is a **** load given how Americain seems to be travelling well on the CC run.
toxic
Hall of Famer
Ps - thanx for your work Seth, much enjoyed
Chris3Judd
Debutant
My trifecta is
Red Cadeaux
Mt Athos
Kellini
Will load up big on Americain if rain comes down
Red Cadeaux
Mt Athos
Kellini
Will load up big on Americain if rain comes down
Like -
MQFP and Gallileo's Choice EW. Big discrepancy in the market between MQFP and Mt Athos; even Luca keeps saying how even they are. I think MQFP could look the winner at some stage, but perhaps lacks the turn of foot to really boot away and win, and may be overrun late by something classier. Still, could easily feature in the money. There's also a sense of timing about Gallileo's Choice, and in Weld and Cumani there's 2 trainers aware of the type of horse needed to win. If it's wet all the better for GC, but either should give a good sight regardless.
Also like Red Cadeux, but has already been given a strong case by others.
Potting -
Tom Waterhouse. Never seen a bloke get so many favourites rolled. Anything he gives a big push to, sack immediately - no horse can carry that weight. Think he said it was 'clear cut' between Green Moon, Dunaden and Fiorente. GM already carrying some of mine, so this wasn't a good sign.
MQFP and Gallileo's Choice EW. Big discrepancy in the market between MQFP and Mt Athos; even Luca keeps saying how even they are. I think MQFP could look the winner at some stage, but perhaps lacks the turn of foot to really boot away and win, and may be overrun late by something classier. Still, could easily feature in the money. There's also a sense of timing about Gallileo's Choice, and in Weld and Cumani there's 2 trainers aware of the type of horse needed to win. If it's wet all the better for GC, but either should give a good sight regardless.
Also like Red Cadeux, but has already been given a strong case by others.
Potting -
Tom Waterhouse. Never seen a bloke get so many favourites rolled. Anything he gives a big push to, sack immediately - no horse can carry that weight. Think he said it was 'clear cut' between Green Moon, Dunaden and Fiorente. GM already carrying some of mine, so this wasn't a good sign.
Like -
Galileo's Choice, Mt. Athos & Ethiopia. The first 2 are just winners. In good winning form, albeit in possible class query races. Trainers who know what they are doing bringing horses here. Have a feeling about Galileo's Choice. Admittedly, said feelings in previous years have just got me 3rds with Mahler and Mouriliyan.
Ethiopia, while on a completely different prep to his AJC Derby, I believe, just takes a while to get wound up. Is a true stayer, grits it out, and is 4th up, as he was when he won the Derby.
Potting -
At my own peril, Dunaden and Americain. Not that I don't think they can't win, but I am worried about the weight. Saw that over the last 30 years, the only horse to win with more than 56(.5?) kg is Makybe Diva. Think they are slightly too short, as good as they are. They won't be having my money, but wouldn't be surprised to see either win.
Lights of Heaven. Had, in my opinion, one of the best runs of the race in the Caulfield Cup and got beaten. Think the 2400 is more her go as well, and the CC was her race. This isn't.
Galileo's Choice, Mt. Athos & Ethiopia. The first 2 are just winners. In good winning form, albeit in possible class query races. Trainers who know what they are doing bringing horses here. Have a feeling about Galileo's Choice. Admittedly, said feelings in previous years have just got me 3rds with Mahler and Mouriliyan.
Ethiopia, while on a completely different prep to his AJC Derby, I believe, just takes a while to get wound up. Is a true stayer, grits it out, and is 4th up, as he was when he won the Derby.
Potting -
At my own peril, Dunaden and Americain. Not that I don't think they can't win, but I am worried about the weight. Saw that over the last 30 years, the only horse to win with more than 56(.5?) kg is Makybe Diva. Think they are slightly too short, as good as they are. They won't be having my money, but wouldn't be surprised to see either win.
Lights of Heaven. Had, in my opinion, one of the best runs of the race in the Caulfield Cup and got beaten. Think the 2400 is more her go as well, and the CC was her race. This isn't.
Fantastic. Thankyou again.
1. Dunaden - Possible star of Australian racing when we look back on it in a few years time, weight doesn't concern me and he's just a winner and I can't leave him out.
2. Americain - He's a star, the weight isnt the worry but the good track might be. I can't have him on top and I can't leave him out completely.
3. Jakkalberry- I can't put him in on what I've seen.
4. Red Cadeaux- 100 odd day break is a concern and although in well of basically a win last year he's had a totally different prep. Again, I don't want to back him and I don't want to leave him out.
5. Winchester - Cant really pot him completely but not convinced he's top 4 material so he has to be left out.
6. Voila Ici - nah
7. Cavalryman - best form as a 2&3 yo so have to leave out.
8. Mt Athos - I know nussink! I'm going to leave it out purely at the price and the unknown, he could very well win, but he can win without my money.
9. Sanagas - I was really into him a few weeks back, nothing has happened to dissuade me from having a small EW. He just strikes me as being wrong place wrong time so far and I think he finally gets a race where he can do something. Wether he is classy enough to have a real impact I'm not sure but at the price I don't mind finding out.
10. Ethiopia - just not sure he's seasoned enough right now. I'm happy enough to leave him out but he's going to be very good. Just not sure right now is his time.
11. Fiorente- Got a bit excited by his win over Joshua tree and red Cadeaux but I've definately calmed and in the hands of Gai Thedestroyer I'm also going to pass.
12. Galileo's Choice- This is my man. Galileo's Choice. Won 6 of his last 8, the 2 defeats coming over the hurdles with 70kg+. Hasn't carried less than 61kg in his last 8 starts. Gets thrown in here with 53.5. Won't know himself. Dermot Weld has two winners in the cup from only 4 runners (thnx Seth) (vintage crop, media puzzle both 10 years apart and it's been 10 yrs since his last one) he brings the right horse at the right time.
Be back with the last 12 I need to take a breath!
2. Americain - He's a star, the weight isnt the worry but the good track might be. I can't have him on top and I can't leave him out completely.
3. Jakkalberry- I can't put him in on what I've seen.
4. Red Cadeaux- 100 odd day break is a concern and although in well of basically a win last year he's had a totally different prep. Again, I don't want to back him and I don't want to leave him out.
5. Winchester - Cant really pot him completely but not convinced he's top 4 material so he has to be left out.
6. Voila Ici - nah
7. Cavalryman - best form as a 2&3 yo so have to leave out.
8. Mt Athos - I know nussink! I'm going to leave it out purely at the price and the unknown, he could very well win, but he can win without my money.
9. Sanagas - I was really into him a few weeks back, nothing has happened to dissuade me from having a small EW. He just strikes me as being wrong place wrong time so far and I think he finally gets a race where he can do something. Wether he is classy enough to have a real impact I'm not sure but at the price I don't mind finding out.
10. Ethiopia - just not sure he's seasoned enough right now. I'm happy enough to leave him out but he's going to be very good. Just not sure right now is his time.
11. Fiorente- Got a bit excited by his win over Joshua tree and red Cadeaux but I've definately calmed and in the hands of Gai Thedestroyer I'm also going to pass.
12. Galileo's Choice- This is my man. Galileo's Choice. Won 6 of his last 8, the 2 defeats coming over the hurdles with 70kg+. Hasn't carried less than 61kg in his last 8 starts. Gets thrown in here with 53.5. Won't know himself. Dermot Weld has two winners in the cup from only 4 runners (thnx Seth) (vintage crop, media puzzle both 10 years apart and it's been 10 yrs since his last one) he brings the right horse at the right time.
Be back with the last 12 I need to take a breath!
13. Glencadam Gold - don't think he gets the trip so no.
14. Green Moon- again, think the trip is an issue. He's certainly good enough but have to leave him out.
15. Maluckyday- I have some (very loose) ties with the stable in sydney so maybe I have a bit if a soft spot for him. I thought the Geelong Cup was amazing. I mean the race was a complete farce and the last 100 and how the hell he picked up and got home was staggering. Is he in 2010 form? Who knows, he's certainly found his price but I'm loathed to leave him out of the top 5 because weve seen how damaging he can be over 3200m.
16. Mourayan- I know I'm going to offend him but he's an honest plodder. Top 10 would b a great result, I think he should be closer to $61 than $20. No.
17. My Quest For Peace- the Caulfield run was really good, the leaders were swamped the rest of the top 5 from memory finished towards the tail and he was the only one that stuck on along with lights of heaven who I think was maybe 6th at the 400m? So it was a good run I was really impressed with the tactical speed shown and he should find himself another good spot here. I can't have him on top but 3rd-4th wouldn't shock.
18. Niwot - He had his chance, I can't see him challenging.
19. Tac De Boistron- If he came into this without a run and it was pouring I'd probably be jumping over old lady's to get more on but the fact is I've seen him and I was near on disgusted. Not the horses fault, circumstance etc..but It was horrible and i just dont think they win cups off runs like that. I backed him early on so if he does win yay but with a dry track here I can't see him in it at all.
20. Lights Of Heaven - hard to put the pen through but think there is probably 6 in front, will have to throw in a trifecta somewhere but...I don't know I just look and beige screams at me in this for some reason. I just can't get excited about her chances and I really want to...
21. Precedence- No
22. Not even typing its name, I have somehow gained a deep hatred for this horse for even being in the field haha.
23. Zabeelionaire- hmmmph I really don't know. Not hopeless not up the top. Top 12? Won't be in multiples.
24. Kelinni - was a nice enough win in the Lexus but meets the big boys here so it's a no.
Numbers to come.
14. Green Moon- again, think the trip is an issue. He's certainly good enough but have to leave him out.
15. Maluckyday- I have some (very loose) ties with the stable in sydney so maybe I have a bit if a soft spot for him. I thought the Geelong Cup was amazing. I mean the race was a complete farce and the last 100 and how the hell he picked up and got home was staggering. Is he in 2010 form? Who knows, he's certainly found his price but I'm loathed to leave him out of the top 5 because weve seen how damaging he can be over 3200m.
16. Mourayan- I know I'm going to offend him but he's an honest plodder. Top 10 would b a great result, I think he should be closer to $61 than $20. No.
17. My Quest For Peace- the Caulfield run was really good, the leaders were swamped the rest of the top 5 from memory finished towards the tail and he was the only one that stuck on along with lights of heaven who I think was maybe 6th at the 400m? So it was a good run I was really impressed with the tactical speed shown and he should find himself another good spot here. I can't have him on top but 3rd-4th wouldn't shock.
18. Niwot - He had his chance, I can't see him challenging.
19. Tac De Boistron- If he came into this without a run and it was pouring I'd probably be jumping over old lady's to get more on but the fact is I've seen him and I was near on disgusted. Not the horses fault, circumstance etc..but It was horrible and i just dont think they win cups off runs like that. I backed him early on so if he does win yay but with a dry track here I can't see him in it at all.
20. Lights Of Heaven - hard to put the pen through but think there is probably 6 in front, will have to throw in a trifecta somewhere but...I don't know I just look and beige screams at me in this for some reason. I just can't get excited about her chances and I really want to...
21. Precedence- No
22. Not even typing its name, I have somehow gained a deep hatred for this horse for even being in the field haha.
23. Zabeelionaire- hmmmph I really don't know. Not hopeless not up the top. Top 12? Won't be in multiples.
24. Kelinni - was a nice enough win in the Lexus but meets the big boys here so it's a no.
Numbers to come.
- Oct 8, 2007
- 13,812
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- FLO-RIDA , PITBULL ,SEAN PAUL
top 6 ;
Mount Athos
Red Cadeaux
Galileo`s Choice
Americain
Dunaden
Cavalryman
Best local;
Kelinni
Mount Athos
Red Cadeaux
Galileo`s Choice
Americain
Dunaden
Cavalryman
Best local;
Kelinni
- Jul 3, 2001
- 22,494
- 9,429
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- Other Teams
- Heat, Victory, Man Utd, Redskins
Like: Ethiopia, Red Cadeaux, Dunaden, Mt Athos
Worries/would not suprise: Galileos Choice, Green Moon
Small chances who would surprise: Americain, Mourayan, Kelinni, Lights of Heaven
Potting: The rest
Worries/would not suprise: Galileos Choice, Green Moon
Small chances who would surprise: Americain, Mourayan, Kelinni, Lights of Heaven
Potting: The rest
- Status
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