2014 rising star

[craffles]

2 years of dominating SANFL plus the opportunities available at Brisbane leave the $21 on offer for Aish to win it too good to pass up.

 

[AFLOnline]

2 years of dominating SANFL plus the opportunities available at Brisbane leave the $21 on offer for Aish to win it too good to pass up.

I'm not sure aish 'dominated' the sanfl this season. mind you he was only 17 half the season, getting tagged and carrying shoulder injuries..

I'm not sure it translates to dominating in the afl in his first season though. I'm positive he will be a gun player, but it's gonna take a bit longer than his first year.

 

[eth-dog]

Aish, Scharenberg, Daniher, Martin, Kelly, Garlett, Salem, McDonald, Billings and Bontempelli spring to mind

 

[kenneje]

Alex Woodward

He is going to get a fair chunk of gametime this year to give Mitchell, Sewell and co a rest. Obviously not a favourite, but he's my smokey.

 

[mehow2g]

With GCS likely to get top 8 my money is on Jack Martin.

 

[Lefthanded]

Is Grundy going to be Collingwoods starting ruck?

Haven't seen a first year ruckman do what Grundy done this year.
Probably the best young ruck we've seen come through in a long time.

Definitely will be. Witts and Hudson only other starting rucks on the list and Grundy is ahead of both.

 

[Lefthanded]

Sam Lloyd or Nathan Gordan

Both are too old to be eligible.

Is brad mckenzie still eligible?

No he's played too many games

possiblities for us are curren (think he will still be eligible, if he is he would be a good chance) dunstan or acres.

Curren is too old to be eligible

 

[Lefthanded]

odds are up

Jack Martin $7.00
Brodie Grundy $10.00
Mitchell Grigg $12.00
Jake Stringer $12.00
Joe Daniher $14.00
Jed Anderson $14.00
Jessie Hogan $14.00
James Aish $21.00
Jack Billings $21.00
Thomas Boyd $21.00

scharenberg $31, Garlett $34, Bontempelli, Sheed, Taylor $41

Great to see an informed and unbiased view.

I'm not doubting the talent of Daniher, Hogan or Boyd but think they and likes of KK & Bontempelli need more development before they can compete for what is essentially a midfielders award (not unlike the Brownlow)

Grundy is in a similar boat to the big 3 forwards in that he will be competing against the best players in his position (as opposed to midfielders who don't draw opposition best player as it goes to Ablett's, O'Meara's, Pendlebury, Selwood etc) but has already shown potential in 2013 and is now getting a preseason after previously being injured coming into this year. Would thus love him to win and if he improves on this year will be the winner in my eyes regardless of the official results.

Like the chances of Aish or Sheed as ready to go players.
Would love McDonald or Scharenberg or similar to win so it's not a mid.

What a great game we have with so much exciting young talent!

 

[Igloo]

I'll stick with us and say Hrovat.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Jack Martin. Looks like a Nat Fyfe/Stephen Hill cross.

Campbell Brown described him as Cyril Rioli but with 10 more possessions a game.

 

[MaddAdam]

Of the last ten winners, only two have been KPPs and one of them was Jared Rivers in 2004. The very, very clear evidence is that it is midfielders or guys who get a lot of the ball (Heppell off half back in his first year) who have the best chance.

Obviously, and fairly logically, guys who are ready to play physically have a far better chance. In this regard, guys who have experience playing against men at a high level competition will have an advantage.

Also the reality is those that make an impact very early in the season tend to establish themselves in the judges minds, so a good Rd 1 - 10 is vital. Then there's a few intangibles, like the structure of the team you're recruited to, where they are in their "window", if opportunity presents itself, maybe the bloke ahead of you gets injured and you get a run and so on.

But using the metrics that we have, you'd think blokes like James Aish and Luke McDonald, both of whom have experience playing on men, both are at teams where they are likely to get games early, both are names already well known and can get a lot of the footy would be looking good on paper at this very early stage.

 

[Holy Rioli]

If we went back in time and did the first round of those drafts over again, realistically the absolute latest in the round that the Geelong picks would go would be (their actual pick in brackets):

Tenace (7): 11
Varcoe (15): 11
Selwood (7): 1
Taylor (17): 3
Brown (15): 18
Menzel (17): 9 (knee injuries and all)
Smedts (15): 13 (Guthrie went pick 23 - which was also in the first round - and would go top 10 as well if 2010 was re-done, incidentally)

You post this stuff be prepared for some real world non geelong biased feedback!

Tenace - delisted already but fair enough dud draft year for all clubs

Varcoe - 115 games in 9 years of footy? Played 14 games and kicked 8 goals as a mid-fwd would not go # 11 if that draft was held again.

Selwood - Yep should have been # 1

Taylor - I have him at #4 behind cotchin, dangerfield and Rioli

Mitch Brown would now go at pick 18? I have him at 48-60 after reviewing the 2008 draft, if you include rookie draft probably 60-75th best talent available out of that draft year. Mostly injury free and can't get a look in this year. Will probably be delisted this time next year. Did have a decent VFL final series - probably saved him from being delisted this year.

Menzel - could have been a great pick 17 hope the kid makes a comeback at some point, but even in hindsight no club would have given up pick 9 for what he has been able to return so far because of his knees

Smedts - I have him at a very generous 25 after reviewing the 2010 draft pool. Probably will play another mediocre year in the VFL next year. Wouldn't surprise me if delisted 12 months from now.

 

[MaddAdam]

Jesus, must this turn into a Hawthorn v Geelong blue? I even managed to be complimentary about Heppell.

 

[Wargreymon90]

You post this stuff be prepared for some real world non geelong biased feedback!

Tenace - delisted already but fair enough dud draft year for all clubs

Varcoe - 115 games in 9 years of footy? Played 14 games and kicked 8 goals as a mid-fwd would not go # 11 if that draft was held again.

Selwood - Yep should have been # 1

Taylor - I have him at #4 behind cotchin, dangerfield and Rioli

Mitch Brown would now go at pick 18? I have him at 48-60 after reviewing the 2008 draft, if you include rookie draft probably 60-75th best talent available out of that draft year. Mostly injury free and can't get a look in this year. Will probably be delisted this time next year. Did have a decent VFL final series - probably saved him from being delisted this year.

Menzel - could have been a great pick 17 hope the kid makes a comeback at some point, but even in hindsight no club would have given up pick 9 for what he has been able to return so far because of his knees

Smedts - I have him at a very generous 25 after reviewing the 2010 draft pool. Probably will play another mediocre year in the VFL next year. Wouldn't surprise me if delisted 12 months from now.

Taylor behind rioli?

Probably the dumbest thing that has ever been said on this website

 

[B4Bear]

Close the poll.

We all 'know' that with North's awesome midfield Luke McDonald has it in the bag.

 

[Shupe]

Aish, Scharenberg, Daniher, Martin, Kelly, Garlett, Salem, McDonald, Billings and Bontempelli spring to mind

Really going out on a limb there!

 

[Tiger71]

Taylor behind rioli?

Probably the dumbest thing that has ever been said on this website

No the worst said would be that Heppell is chock full of courage and loves the hard stuff

 

[Sunny_]

Gold Coast teenager Jack Martin favourite to win 2014 AFL Rising Star Award.

GOLD Coast wonder kid Jack Martin has been installed as the early favourite to win next year's AFL Rising Star Award.

Martin, the first pick in last year's 17-year-old mini-draft, is set to follow in the footsteps of this year's winner teammate Jaeger O'Meara.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

You post this stuff be prepared for some real world non geelong biased feedback!

Tenace - delisted already but fair enough dud draft year for all clubs

Varcoe - 115 games in 9 years of footy? Played 14 games and kicked 8 goals as a mid-fwd would not go # 11 if that draft was held again.

Selwood - Yep should have been # 1

Taylor - I have him at #4 behind cotchin, dangerfield and Rioli

Mitch Brown would now go at pick 18? I have him at 48-60 after reviewing the 2008 draft, if you include rookie draft probably 60-75th best talent available out of that draft year. Mostly injury free and can't get a look in this year. Will probably be delisted this time next year. Did have a decent VFL final series - probably saved him from being delisted this year.

Menzel - could have been a great pick 17 hope the kid makes a comeback at some point, but even in hindsight no club would have given up pick 9 for what he has been able to return so far because of his knees

Smedts - I have him at a very generous 25 after reviewing the 2010 draft pool. Probably will play another mediocre year in the VFL next year. Wouldn't surprise me if delisted 12 months from now.

Again, it was an exercise in comparing the first round picks from each draft. Which was what was being debated in the first place.

If you want to start dragging the later rounds into it, it doesn't exactly help your argument, because that means players like West/Stokes (2005), Motlop/T.Hunt (2008), Duncan/Christensen/Vardy/Podsiadly (2009) and Guthrie/Horlin-Smith/Walker/J.Simpkin (2010) are added to the discussion. You can't have it both ways. Your choices are to compare apples with apples in one of two ways:

1. Geelong's FRPs v other clubs' FRPs
2. Geelong's draft years collectively v other clubs' draft years collectively

And, I mean, 'Rioli over Taylor' is probably all that needs to be said as a rebuttal (I guess I'll let the neutrals do that for me). But anyway...

Varcoe: has played in two senior premierships. He debuted in 2007 and has had ongoing injury problems, including missing all of 2012 and a fair chunk of 2013. But he's played in two senior premierships (and was one of Geelong's best in the 2011 win). I don't think it's even possible to be a 'miss' if you've managed that, even if you were a top five pick. And at 25 years old, he's still easily on pace to crack 200 senior games. So, not a great start there.

Brown: Yep, I'd put him 18th out of the first round players from that year. Of which there are 18. And I'd suggest the jury is still out there, especially with regards to Brown v Blease and Brown v Cordy. He was solid in his AFL appearances in 2013 and was runner-up in the VFL best and fairest.

Menzel: I guess we'll see. Like I said, I put Morabito ahead of him, even though he has practically the same injury concerns and has arguably shown less at AFL level than Menzel (who would have been a walk-up start in the 2011 grand final team, had he not done his ACL in the QF).

Smedts: You are kidding yourself. It's only a matter of time before he makes a serious impact.

 

[eth-dog]

Really going out on a limb there!

Not all selections have to be out of the box

No the worst said would be that Heppell is chock full of courage and loves the hard stuff

Naww, you're just mad that you took Conca (who'll be a reasonable player in a good midfield) ahead of clearly the best performed player of that draft in Heppell.

 

[cotter101]

2 years of dominating SANFL plus the opportunities available at Brisbane leave the $21 on offer for Aish to win it too good to pass up.

Didn't really dominate the SANFL this year due to injuries and getting tagged, but he still averaged 17 disposals a match whilst spending some time down back and up forward. But I don't think he will play more than 10 games next year unless one of Hanley, Mayes or Rich gets injured for the whole year. Unless his form in the NEAFL literally demands a spot, I just can't see him playing that much in the seniors.

That's the only reason I won't put too much money on him. But I'll probably just throw a lazy $20 or so on him or one of our other boys.

 

[The Bomb]

Close the poll.

We all 'know' that with North's awesome midfield Luke McDonald has it in the bag.

Needs to find more of the footy 17 poss a game will not get it done in 2014.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Apeness

 

[Tiger71]

Not all selections have to be out of the box


Naww, you're just mad that you took Conca (who'll be a reasonable player in a good midfield) ahead of clearly the best performed player of that draft in Heppell.

I believe your missing the M in your nick mate

 

[eth-dog]

I believe your missing the M in your nick mate

Wow! That's only the 500,000,000,000,000,000 time I've heard that this year