2015 Wooden Spoon Predictions

[TedDougChris]

Western Bulldogs for me, it's hard to see them improve after trading Griffin, Cooney, Higgins, Jones & Tutt. Plus sacking the coach doesn't look too good either.

However, they looked to have their priorities in order and are building a strong team for the future. Tom Boyd could turn out to be a real positive for the club.

Our performances will be in the hands of our younger brigade. As it was last year. If they improve and the older guys stay on the park - we'll be ok.

If they stagnate, or we suffer injuries - it'll be a bloody horrible year.

 

[SickQwon]

I do think we will be near the bottom, but you can't really include Jones and Tutt as big outs. Griffen is a huge out, he is the only one I see having a massive effect.

Higgins was ok last year, but we've had him injured for most of his career and had to cover him anyway.

Cooney played more bad games than good last year. The main effect him leaving will have is taggers. Instead of tagging Cooney, teams will target Macrae, which he will probably struggle with. Hope Coons kills it at Essendon, a lot of dogs supporters still love him.

Jones and Tutt though... both were basically VFL players. They shouldn't have any effect at all.

Although they are VFL players, they still have a few years of development in the system. Not necessarily big losses but a few years of experience holds some value to their name.

Tutt came 3rd in Carlton's 3km time trial. Either shows where he's at or shows where Carlton's at.

 

[TedDougChris]

Tutt came 3rd in Carlton's 3km time trial. Either shows where he's at or shows where Carlton's at.

Tutt is a great worker, both with and without the ball. Good speed and endurance, just needs to slow slightly before delivering the football IMO - he tends to rush and spray it a little. His style of play suits a side with a dominant KPF option - as he isn't pinpoint with his disposal - and a Hawkins type is able to manhandle the opposition out of the way and take the grab.

Which is slightly ironic as he's just left the Dogs as we've finally got one of those forwards.... Albeit a young version....

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Can't wait to return to this thread at the end of the year

 

[Murraj1966]

A lot of people seem to think the Dogs with all the changes, a lot of people want to see it be Carlton but I don't think they're quite there yet, and of course there's us Melbourne and GWS hanging around as well.

I would assume St Kilda will be last or second last but at this stage there is no guaranteed spoon team and remember early last season Brisbane were a lock for the spoon until they got going later

 

[JackFlash]

It's the Saints or Pies for me, depending on the Essendon situation of course.

 

[IllBeTheJudge]

As much as I hope Carlton never win another game ever again, I reckon it will be between St Kilda and Bulldogs. Going with the Dogs

 

[kreglze]

Pretty much toss up between Melbourne and St Kilda.

 

[Dogsman16]

Still surprised at the number of posters saying we will end up with the spoon. Whilst our off-season has been catastrophic and we only managed to win 7 games its important to remember we lost 6 games by 13 points or less, thats with a pretty inflexable game plan, disharmony amongst the playing group and an appalling match day selection committee whos decisions were baffling at the best of times. Griffen no question is a massive loss but the other 4 players we lost really didn't have good seasons at all and are replaceable. Biggs virtually replaces Higgins (whom several sydney fans suggested he was stiff not to get more game time at the swans and I think our young players will cover Cooney's loss and griffens loss to a degree.

I don't think we will nessacarily end up with a better win/lose ratio but with our young age demographic I think we should be able to match a 7/8 win season like we have in previous seasons.

 

[TBOW]

A lot of people seem to think the Dogs with all the changes, a lot of people want to see it be Carlton but I don't think they're quite there yet, and of course there's us Melbourne and GWS hanging around as well.

I would assume St Kilda will be last or second last but at this stage there is no guaranteed spoon team and remember early last season Brisbane were a lock for the spoon until they got going later

Yeah, as much as I'm enjoying some of the banter on this thread Carlton don't deserve to be figuring so prominently.

They are in a completely different phase to the dogs & saints & won't be last unless they have a catastrophic season.

If the thread was predicting the spooners for 2017 it would be a different story....

 

[PieLebo87]

Hopefully Essendon. But I think Collingwood's going to be the surprise package down the bottom of the ladder. It's hard to notice how bad they are given how delusional their supporters are, and they haven't improved their list over the off-season.

lols

 

[Giant Pete]

Still surprised at the number of posters saying we will end up with the spoon. Whilst our off-season has been catastrophic and we only managed to win 7 games its important to remember we lost 6 games by 13 points or less, thats with a pretty inflexable game plan, disharmony amongst the playing group and an appalling match day selection committee whos decisions were baffling at the best of times. Griffen no question is a massive loss but the other 4 players we lost really didn't have good seasons at all and are replaceable. Biggs virtually replaces Higgins (whom several sydney fans suggested he was stiff not to get more game time at the swans and I think our young players will cover Cooney's loss and griffens loss to a degree.

I don't think we will nessacarily end up with a better win/lose ratio but with our young age demographic I think we should be able to match a 7/8 win season like we have in previous seasons.

Your young mids copping the tags now... I think it'll be another long season for you.

 

[Mofra]

You're young mids copping the tags now... I think it'll be another long season for you.

Libba was tagged on occasion last year - Macrae may be the one who suffers with extra attention as he's already one of our best accumulators (finished 2nd in out B&F) but was rarely tagged (Libba & Griff copped it).

We really need Bonti to spend ore time in the middle, Hrovat's injury-free pre-season means he should get more gametime and Jong has really lifted too. Offsets some (but not all) of Griffen's loss which is huge.

 

[Dogsman16]

Libba was tagged on occasion last year - Macrae may be the one who suffers with extra attention as he's already one of our best accumulators (finished 2nd in out B&F) but was rarely tagged (Libba & Griff copped it).

We really need Bonti to spend ore time in the middle, Hrovat's injury-free pre-season means he should get more gametime and Jong has really lifted too. Offsets some (but not all) of Griffen's loss which is huge.

I reckon the person who could offset Griffen's loss more than any (if he has a good season) is big will. Doesn't have the injury concerns of last season and if he has a season close to his 2013 it will take away a large chunk of griffens loss almost just as much as if our youngsters improve in the way we believe they will.

 

[carnthedons]

Libba was tagged on occasion last year - Macrae may be the one who suffers with extra attention as he's already one of our best accumulators (finished 2nd in out B&F) but was rarely tagged (Libba & Griff copped it).

We really need Bonti to spend ore time in the middle, Hrovat's injury-free pre-season means he should get more gametime and Jong has really lifted too. Offsets some (but not all) of Griffen's loss which is huge.

If I'm coaching against the dogs it's gotta be Macrae or the Bont getting the tag. Libba's inside work is fantastic but I don't think you'll get as much impact on the outcome by tagging him as you would one the more outside types. Griffen leaving means one of those young guys is gonna get more heat I reckon, will be interesting to see how they deal with it. Heppell for us started to cop more attention and had up and down games because of it (see Wallis going off injured in our last meeting)

 

[Mofra]

If I'm coaching against the dogs it's gotta be Macrae or the Bont getting the tag. Libba's inside work is fantastic but I don't think you'll get as much impact on the outcome by tagging him as you would one the more outside types. Griffen leaving means one of those young guys is gonna get more heat I reckon, will be interesting to see how they deal with it. Heppell for us started to cop more attention and had up and down games because of it (see Wallis going off injured in our last meeting)

Fair point, although Libba was 9th in the competition or effective long kicks in 2014 - if he gets it, the ball is put to our advantage.

Macrae is the most obvious of the more 'outside' types to get the tag - any 19 year old who can manages 43 possies & 2 goals in a game knows how to play.

 

[Forward Press]

Fair point, although Libba was 9th in the competition or effective long kicks in 2014 - if he gets it, the ball is put to our advantage.

Macrae is the most obvious of the more 'outside' types to get the tag - any 19 year old who can manages 43 possies & 2 goals in a game knows how to play.

If you want to look at it another way, when Ablett left everyone said Selwood would get more heat but he actually improved his output and had more of an impact on games. You won't get Ryan Crowley tagging you every game - I'm tipping Macrae to have a belter of a year and to be a future gun of the game before too long. Even better than Bontempelli, Libba, Wallis etc.

 

[Forward Press]

This. Get on him in your preferred fantasy footy comp for 2015.

I didn't jump on last year.

Great pick-up by the Dogs. Ryan who?

 

[King Cold]

Have the bookies set odds for the wooden spoon yet?

 

[youngbear]

Have the bookies set odds for the wooden spoon yet?

They don't do Wooden Spoon markets anymore, because of Essendon. It's called least wins...

This is SportsBet's at the moment:

 

[Gavin Excell]

They don't do Wooden Spoon markets anymore, because of Essendon. It's called least wins...

This is SportsBet's at the moment:

View attachment 104332

Gee West Coast at $50s tasty

 

[ferrisb]

Things would have to go horribly badly for them this year for Carlton to get the spoon. Unless Mick has completely lost it, he ought to be able to extract a decent output from that group if they don't get crunched by injuries, especially now that he will have more the sort of team he has been wanting, including personalities-wise. That said, it's not necessarily that easy to see where the goals are coming from. Don't see too many teams having sleepless nights worrying about how to stop their forward line. I'm guessing Walker will be switched there, Henderson played there a lot and Menzel needed to kick 40 goals, if they are to threaten to make the finals.

I think some still think it's 2011 or 2012 when talking about our young group, but we started rebuilding our list way back in 2011 and now have 30 on our lists who are under 24yo, with a big chunk of them having come from the first 3 rounds of the last 4 drafts and others having been traded in who also cost us picks in that range, so something would have to be horribly wrong if we didn't have a lot of young talent there! The fact we just re-signed an AFL record 19 of them and upgraded all 4 off our rookie list probably tells a bit of a story as well.

I drew up a comparison recently just to show how our 23yo and under group (who have played a combined total of 522 AFL games) compared with Carlton's (237 games total), when some were suggesting that theirs was better than ours, but when you look at the cold hard numbers and facts, I don't think even Gillo would go on with that sort of argument!:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/carlton-2015.1084087/page-25#post-36509488

They look to have us well covered in the 24-30yo age bracket though, which is why they really ought to finish higher than us this year, all things being equal, and might even make the 8.

Carlton close to topping this poll, with many citing our lack of quality youth... But Aussie's post seems more plausible to me.

Our lack of youth actually suggests we might be ok this year. BUT admittedly we look like we could struggle in 2-3 years.

St Kilda could have the opposite trajectory.

 

[hutchy31]

They don't do Wooden Spoon markets anymore, because of Essendon. It's called least wins...

This is SportsBet's at the moment:

View attachment 104332

There's an approach taken by many Scots before every world cup - bet on England to win it and if they do then use the money for a long holiday to get away from the media nightmare that would be the jingoistic English press.

Using that rationale, I may chuck a couple of hundred on the dogs for the spoon so I can go somewhere without papers and internet, and far away from Damian Barrett so I'm not tempted to do something I'll end up in the big house for...

 

[Gavin Excell]

There's an approach taken by many Scots before every world cup - bet on England to win it and if they do then use the money for a long holiday to get away from the media nightmare that would be the jingoistic English press.

Using that rationale, I may chuck a couple of hundred on the dogs for the spoon so I can go somewhere without papers and internet, and far away from Damian Barrett so I'm not tempted to do something I'll end up in the big house for...

only an idiot puts money of England to win the World Cup. Even for reasons outlined above

They are miles off top tier

 

[aussierulesrules]

Carlton close to topping this poll, with many citing our lack of quality youth... But Aussie's post seems more plausible to me.

Our lack of youth actually suggests we might be ok this year. BUT admittedly we look like we could struggle in 2-3 years.

St Kilda could have the opposite trajectory.

I think it's fair to say that you guys are gambling on landing a very big fish or two through FA or a trade in the next couple of seasons, so that you can get that really high-end talent that way, rather than by dropping down the ladder and getting it through the draft, like say we or WB have in recent years, so your fate looks to me like it will largely be dependent on whether you do land them or not.

If you do then you could be back in business, but if not then you may be in the position where you have to concede that you need to go the "full rebuild" route, like we did a year and half ago when us trying to rebuild without bottoming out didn't work out for us.