2015 Wooden Spoon Predictions

[aussierulesrules]

I cant belive the expectation on Hogan. Yes he dominated VFL 2 years ago but so has Liam Mcbean.
I highly doubt he will make that much differnce to Melbourne.

If he plays most or all games, he bloody well could. Liam Mcbean is a "stick-figure", who supposedly doesn't exactly love the physical side of the game, whereas Hogan is a big, strong, aggressive, competitive, extremely talented "beast", with an epic tank, who has now had 3 AFL preseasons, and, as you said, dominated in the VFL- despite being a year younger than anyone else playing in the comp at the time. Liam McBean wasn't dominating VFL footy at the same age, he was playing school and/or TAC Cup U18's footy and not even dominating there (hence being picked in the 30's).

Hogan looked ready to play two years ago, when we got a glimpse of him in the 2013 NAB Cup and since then has won a VFL best and fairest and done the best part of two more full AFL preseasons. He would be a lot fitter and I dare say even stronger now and even hungrier to play. He is likely to be as ready to make a big immediate impact as anyone his size has been in the past decade or more. It's extremely rare for someone as big and strong as him to have such a huge tank at such a young age and that is what will set him apart from most his size who enter the comp at that sort of age.

He will be 20yo this year. Lance Franklin kicked 73 goals at 20yo, Matthew Lloyd 70 and Lance Whitnall kicked 55. Johnno Brown took 150+ marks and kicked 38 goals. Nick Riewoldt won our B&F for the season when he was just 19yo! There is every chance that Hogan has a similar sort of ability and elite potential as that lot had or have, so just like they did for their respective teams, it won't surprise me in the least if he makes a significant difference to Melbourne at just 20yo.

Petracca could also of course be a telling addition to their forward line this year. He has genuinely dominated games of footy up forward and of course will be strong enough to more than hold his own from the get-go at AFL level and provide immediate headaches to opposition defences, with his strength in both the air and at ground level.

Yes Frawley will be a loss, but he is about the only one and if you asked a team whether they would rather have Frawley, or Hogan, Petracca, La Moomba, Garlett, Frost, Newton, Brayshaw and Stretch, I think I know which way they'd be leaning, just quietly!

 

[ManOfClay]

You could make almost the exact same argument for Jack Redpath that you are making for Hogan. Leading VFL goalkicker, big, strong, competitive.

But has done nothing at AFL level yet.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I don't think some on here quite understand the level of talent Hogan has though, especially when they start comparing him to the likes of McBean and Redpath. He wasn't one of only two taken in that mini-draft, ahead of say Josh Kelly, just for laughs. He is an "elite talent", like a Boyd, O'Meara, Kelly, Billings, B Crouch, Bontempelli, McCartin, Martin, etc. He is levels of talent above the likes of McBean and Redpath (who sure as shit wasn't dominating senior VFL footy at the age of 18 like Hogan was!)

 

[ManOfClay]

That wasn't the point. Sure, Hogan has better junior form and arguably more talent than those guys etc but he hasn't played an AFL game.

He's spoken about as a dead-set rolled gold certainty to be a great. Like Boyd was too. And we've all seen how that has gone so far (in being that it's too early to tell, although some are right off him just because he hasn't dominated after nine games).

People just never learn.

 

[BluStreak]

At least they are not paying a $1m a year for him.

 

[ManOfClay]

At least they are not paying a $1m a year for him.

They are paying over 500K though for a player yet to even debut. Nice shot at Boyd too, still bitter he isn't at Carlton?

 

[ManOfClay]

Back to the spoon predictions though: St Kilda, us, Melbourne, GWS and Carlton are all potential bottom four teams. Raffle it off.

 

[TaylorMade]

Saints for mine.

Pies / Blues a good chance to enter bottom 4.

 

[BluStreak]

They are paying over 500K though for a player yet to even debut. Nice shot at Boyd too, still bitter he isn't at Carlton?

Yes but Boyd has not delivered and Hogan, Boyd, Danhawhateverhisnameis were all touted has having the same levels of potential.
As for Boyd not being at Carlton, yeah I would have like him there but no way at that price. That is a club killer.

As to Jones; of course he is going to be talked up at his new club, dah.
Where he succeeds or not is up to him now. He has his second chance. I dont have a crystal ball so will wait and see.
However, at Carlton he will play the 2nd or 3rd forward role not the prime forward role that WB had him in.
If you recall when he played beside B Hall for you he did very well. But since then you have played him as the #1 forward.

 

[ManOfClay]

If you recall when he played beside B Hall for you he did very well. But since then you have played him as the #1 forward.

People are very rosy-eyed looking back on that. He kicked 19 goals that year, hardly playing very well. Jones is one of the very few players in the league to jump ship to a team where he gets the prestige of being third bannana. The truly competitive players want to be number one, Jones is meekly saying he wants the other guys to have the pressure.

As for your remarks regarding Boyd: I'd have thought salary cap cheating and all that would have more cause to be a club killer. But if you want to call signing a player on a million bucks a club killer then I await your suggestion as to who I should follow now.

 

[TedDougChris]

You ripper we're winning the flag!

This post deserves more likes than I can give it....

 

[TedDougChris]

At least they are not paying a $1m a year for him.

To be fair, neither are we yet.....

 

[BluStreak]

People are very rosy-eyed looking back on that. He kicked 19 goals that year, hardly playing very well. Jones is one of the very few players in the league to jump ship to a team where he gets the prestige of being third bannana. The truly competitive players want to be number one, Jones is meekly saying he wants the other guys to have the pressure.

As for your remarks regarding Boyd: I'd have thought salary cap cheating and all that would have more cause to be a club killer. But if you want to call signing a player on a million bucks a club killer then I await your suggestion as to who I should follow now.

Try the other western suburb team. ooh wait they cheated as well. How about Melbourne. They got penalised for not cheating.

You have a list of young 'stars' that will be going "yeah but you paid Tom $$$$ per year what about me" at their contract negotiations. Good Luck with that.

 

[Hawker55]

I cant belive the expectation on Hogan. Yes he dominated VFL 2 years ago but so has Liam Mcbean.
I highly doubt he will make that much differnce to Melbourne.
Loosing Frawley shouldnt be overlooked. He is a massive loss and they will struggle to cover him.
Melbournes midfield finally has some depth but without a foward line or defence its useless.
I wouldnt be surprised to see them in the bottom 2 again this year.

The Demons love a messiah, always have.

 

[ManOfClay]

You have a list of young 'stars' that will be going "yeah but you paid Tom $$$$ per year what about me" at their contract negotiations. Good Luck with that.

Very simplified way of looking at it, and a theory that has been debunked many a time.

Regardless, most of our young stars aren't out of contract until 2017 anyway.

 

[yyou]

The Demons love a messiah, always have.

Messiah doesn't sit quite well with demons
Saints seem to work for the Messiah.

 

[aussierulesrules]

That wasn't the point. Sure, Hogan has better junior form and arguably more talent than those guys etc but he hasn't played an AFL game.

He's spoken about as a dead-set rolled gold certainty to be a great. Like Boyd was too. And we've all seen how that has gone so far (in being that it's too early to tell, although some are right off him just because he hasn't dominated after nine games).

People just never learn.

People never learn? So does that mean that those who are tipping Hogan to be extremely good are wrong, hence having "never learned"? I would have thought we'd have to wait until a fair way into his career to be able to tell if they're predictions are off the mark and as such they haven't learned. If they prove to be correct, perhaps it isn't them who "haven't learned".

As for Boyd v Hogan, and why some like me are tipping Hogan to make an immediate impact, where Boyd for instance hasn't, there is a big difference there. That big difference is the evidence at hand and that evidence is that while Boyd was playing against "kids", Hogan was at the same time and same age playing senior VFL footy and doing so well there that he won his club's B&F, which was an incredible effort. The following year, Boyd was far less dominant in the far, far weaker NEAFL, so it was no great surprise that he didn't show much at senior AFL level either.

Who would you tip to perform better at senior AFL level, someone who was killing it at senior VFL level at the age of 18, or someone a good 2-3 inches taller and over 200cm (who tend to take longer) who performed far less well, in a far weaker competition, despite by that stage being a year older? I'd be going with the shorter one with the significantly better form in the significantly stronger competition at a younger age and who has the required attributes to be able to translate that form to AFL level (eg. huge tank- so important in today's footy, a beastly build, aggressiveness/competitiveness and genuine elite footy ability and smarts).

He's now had 3 AFL PRESEASONS and a full year of senior VFL footy, looks to have elite ability and pretty much all the attributes that are required to perform at a very high level in his role at AFL level. I don't think it's exactly going out on a limb to tip that he is going to make a significant difference to his team immediately. He's not someone straight out of school, super-skinny, really tall, or really lacking in endurance.

You didn't see me tipping that Boyd would come out and make a big immediate impact in his first season at AFL level and you also don't see me tipping that McCartin will come out and make a significant impact in his first or even 2nd AFL season, but you do with Hogan, because he is a completely different case. Neither of the other two have Hogan's enormous tank, neither of the other two are as immediately capable of playing both the lead-far-and-wide role and also the stay-at-home role and neither of the other two had had 3 AFL preseasons and a full year of dominant senior VFL footy leading into their first AFL season. Hogan has though and that is why I'm very confident that he will be able to make a far greater impact in his first season than either of the other two for instance did or will make in theirs (assuming McCartin debuts this year).

Apparently I never learn though, so I guess you've looked into your crystal ball and seen that that isn't going to be the case. Too bad for him then.

 

[ManOfClay]

Tip Hogan to be extremely good, that's fine. Don't spend half a thread writing essays on why that's the case though. Writing 300 words just repeating yourself ad nauseum doesn't make your opinion any stronger.

I think Hogan has the tools to be very good too. However a lot of players have had these tools and not been able to put it together at AFL level so I'm going to keep my hand from my penis for now.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'll do what I want, as I've told you before and continue to do, but thanks. Nice fence sitting by you though. Don't hurt yourself going too far out on a limb there, as per usual.

Nice gillo impression there too, someone shoots down your argument (in this case why Boyd- who you brought up- and Hogan are completely different cases) and you spit the dummy and/or have a sook.

 

[ManOfClay]

I'll do what I want, as I've told you before and continue to do, but thanks. Nice fence sitting by you though. Don't hurt yourself going too far out on a limb there, as per usual.

Nice gillo impression there too, someone shoots down your argument (in this case why Boyd- who you brought up- and Hogan are completely different cases) and you spit the dummy and/or have a sook.

Why are you so upset?

 

[SickQwon]

Why are you so upset?

Haha XD U mad bro??? XDddd

 

[ManOfClay]

Genuinely don't understand why someone not cheerleading for a player is such a cause for nastiness.

 

[Persevering Saint]

People are very rosy-eyed looking back on that. He kicked 19 goals that year, hardly playing very well. Jones is one of the very few players in the league to jump ship to a team where he gets the prestige of being third banana. The truly competitive players want to be number one, Jones is meekly saying he wants the other guys to have the pressure.

As for your remarks regarding Boyd: I'd have thought salary cap cheating and all that would have more cause to be a club killer. But if you want to call signing a player on a million bucks a club killer then I await your suggestion as to who I should follow now.

Damn that line made me laugh. Awesome quip.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Tip Hogan to be extremely good, that's fine. Don't spend half a thread writing essays on why that's the case though. Writing 300 words just repeating yourself ad nauseum doesn't make your opinion any stronger.

I think Hogan has the tools to be very good too. However a lot of players have had these tools and not been able to put it together at AFL level so I'm going to keep my hand from my penis for now.

To be fair, though, aussierulesrules usually writes 300 word essay posts. This isn't anything different.

 

[ManOfClay]

Damn that line made me laugh. Awesome quip.

And what's more, he's jumped to a shit team to be third in line.

I mean, for example Jack Gunston similarly left a mid-table Adelaide to be third tall behind Buddy and Roughead. LJ is a third string behind two guys whose combined goal tally for season 2014 was less than 50. Most AFL players would hate to be seen behind Lachie Henderson and Levi Casboult in the pecking order. Not our Liam.