2015 Wooden Spoon Predictions

[go you pups]

Your also expecting 80+ goals out of Cameri or Stringer this season which is just pie in the sky type stuff while Boyd will attract some attention I doubt he will be the sole focus with his poor showing to date.

Considering they kicked 63 together last year with barely any help from Jones (our supposedly great key forward) and Stringer only played a dozen games as a forward as he spent time down back and had a month in the VFL playing midfield but still kicked 26, 80 between them is definitely doable if they keep fit.

Keep on hating mate.

 

[Adam H]

Considering they kicked 63 together last year with barely any help from Jones (our supposedly great key forward) and Stringer only played a dozen games as a forward as he spent time down back and had a month in the VFL playing midfield but still kicked 26, 80 between them is definitely doable if they keep fit.

Keep on hating mate.

It was posted that each would average four goals a game on the third forward.

 

[doggies ftw]

Those guys may not have been taking us anywhere but to call them all deadwood is selling them very short.
Our off-season list changes will undoubtedly hurt us in the short term.

I think its fair enough to call Jones and Tutt deadwood (along with Young, Howard, Austin etc) maybe a bit harsh on Cooney and Higgins as they can still offer something (although I'd expect very little from Coons from now on tbh) but I have absolutely no problem with losing them. They hurt the team as much as they helped it to be honest, Coons might rip open a game every 8 weeks but his lack of two way running just kills ya, don't even get me started on Higgins (although in saying that he could probably offer a bit to a good team and might be a decent pick up for Norf).

Long term were obviously better off but I honestly don't think losing those 4 will have a big impact on the team short term either. We'll get more out of Boyd and possibly even Redpath than we got out of Jones last year (10 games/12 goals). Biggs looks set to step in at HB and I doubt he will offer us that much less than what Higgins did, and probably a lot more defensively. We will lose the match winning ability of Coons but will get a lot more consistency from the younger mids stepping up into his place not to mention if you take out his very few, very good games he had a poor year and Tutt is just a very expendable outside runner. Griff obviously a huge loss but what can ya do.

 

[go you pups]

It was posted that each would average four goals a game on the third forward.

Not saying it will happen every week, but one of them kicking a few every 2-3 weeks is likely if Boyd takes a bit of pressure off one of them allowing them to have a favourable match up or both of them continue to improve their forward craft.

Crameri kicked 4 goals in a game 4 times last year and multiple goals another 6 times, so 10 for the year but he had a dry patch in the middle of the year when he didn't have Stringer with him and Jones was a liability.

Stringer from round 15 onwards kicked 4 goals in a game 3 times and had a 5 goal game against Essendon, in total 6 games of multiple goals from his last 9 games when he played as a permanent forward.

 

[Adam H]

Not saying it will happen every week, but one of them kicking a few every 2-3 weeks is likely if Boyd takes a bit of pressure off one of them allowing them to have a favourable match up or both of them continue to improve their forward craft.

Crameri kicked 4 goals in a game 4 times last year and multiple goals another 6 times, so 10 for the year but he had a dry patch in the middle of the year when he didn't have Stringer with him and Jones was a liability.

Stringer from round 15 onwards kicked 4 goals in a game 3 times and had a 5 goal game against Essendon, in total 6 games of multiple goals from his last 9 games when he played as a permanent forward.

Having Boyd won't change who Crameri gets due to the different players required to counter the different styles. If the WB played StKilda with or without Boyd our 1st choice FB still wouldn't go to Crameri.

 

[ManOfClay]

Wouldn't really matter which defenders go where when we play St Kilda. Jake Stringer will just have to tear their defense apart again.

What was it - four goals last time with three of them coming after he brushed aside tackles from St Kilda's more experienced defenders?

 

[Adam H]

Wouldn't really matter which defenders go where when we play St Kilda. Jake Stringer will just have to tear their defense apart again.

What was it - four goals last time with three of them coming after he brushed aside tackles from St Kilda's more experienced defenders?

Yep played well against our depleted defence but credit it to him. Looking forward to a fit Fisher Gilbert Roberton and Geary this season along with the return of Webster and Wright.

 

[ManOfClay]

Gilbert played that game, as did fisher. Remember him running through fisher near the 50 before doing the same to gwilt for one goal and then shaking off Gilbert for another

 

[Adam H]

Gilbert played that game, as did fisher. Remember him running through fisher near the 50 before doing the same to gwilt for one goal and then shaking off Gilbert for another

Like I said a fit Fisher and Gilbert only back after massive injury concerns so yes I will be glad there back fit.

 

[aussierulesrules]

All this talk that WB only lost Griffen of note is pretty silly, because Higgins played 20 games last year (and averaged 20 possies per game and played well enough to warrant a good contract from a top 4 club, despite his injury history), Cooney played 18 and even Gia (even though he had the green jacket in most of them) played 15, so not only do they lose their experience, leadership and a bunch of skill and speed (attributes that their team haven't been known for having an abundance of in recent times), but that is taking out a chunk of their team that now need to be replaced by others that were deemed only VFL worthy last year, or who were just drafted, and who have a fraction of their experience. Plus their tags now go directly to the likes of Macrae. Then you've also got the fact that 3 of the top 7 in their B&F are all turning 33yo this year, which puts them right into the age "danger zone", on top of someone else from the top 3 of the B&F now being gone altogether.

Of course they have lots of young talent coming through, some of it very high quality indeed, but there is a just a huge chasm in the 24-33yo age bracket and that makes them susceptible to injuries, so as I've been saying, I think injuries will play a huge part in who finishes bottom, just as they did last year. We sure as shit weren't looking like coming last 6 rounds into last season (and in the end we still only got there on percentage), but then we started to get crunched by injuries to key personnel and, combined with an increasingly more difficult draw as the season wore on, our season fell off a cliff, which just shows how easily it can happen when you have a really young list and your depth is really inexperienced.

Doesn't mean it will happen to them this year, but they are at huge risk of it given their lack of experience now, which is why I see them as a legit strong chance to finish bottom if things don't go as they would hope.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I think where we both are in our rebuilds has more to do with the input of our young players than what experience we each have left.

The Saints (somewhat more willingly) have recently parted with Goddard, Dal Santo, McEvoy & Stanley so our recent purge is really only bringing us into line with your mob experience-wise.

I think our young guys are a little more ready to take the load than yours.

I agree with your bottom point to a fair degree, as you of course started getting your really top end young talent a draft or so earlier than we did, so understandably they are likely to be ready to make a really strong impact sooner than ours, but as far as your other points go I think it's going to be a lot closer than some who haven't had a really good look at our respective lists would realise.

I'd suggest that because of how many injuries we've had this past couple of years that those who don't follow us closely don't realise that we still have 7 on our list who have played multiple grand finals (plus Savage, who played one for Hawthorn), plus we also have another 3 who were here in the grand final years, and played at times in those seasons under Lyon and who have all played at least one final- but who didn't get to play in those GF's- in Jack Steven, David Armitage and Jarryn Geary, plus Dylan Roberton, who played a couple of finals at a young age under Ross Lyon at Freo.

So we have 12 on our list who have finals experience compared to 7 on yours and those on our list have played a combined 26 grand finals and 113 finals, compared to zero GF's and just the 51 finals for the 7 on yours, so as far as experience goes, I'd suggest we actually still have a considerable amount more of it, which is why I could easily enough see us finishing higher, if we turn around our injury run of the past couple of seasons and are more used to the way Richo wants us to play and so-on (which we are hearing is the case with the young ones in particular- the older ones played that sort of manic-defensive footy under Lyon, so it would be like putting on an old pair of shoes for them).

It could be an interesting "race" and of course we have an easier draw this year than we did last year. Last year, in spite of the fact we finished bottom 4 the year before, we didn't play ANY of the previous year's bottom 4 twice for the season, whereas I think this year we play at least 2 of last year's bottom 4 twice, because we've now been down the bottom for two years and the AFL want to make it easier on us as far as the draw goes (you guys were in this position last year- coming off two consecutive years down the bottom- and from memory you got to play at least two of the previous year's bottom 4 twice, which would have helped you rise up the ladder a bit).

 

[ManOfClay]

Like I said a fit Fisher and Gilbert only back after massive injury concerns so yes I will be glad there back fit.

Speaks volumes of St Kilda's list that there were no guys able to replace these clearly unfit players

 

[Marley10]

I'd have to say St Kilda. Only one I can see win it unless another team has a bad year.

Why does Carlton have so much votes? Did I miss something in the off-season? I thought they finished the year off quite well.

Garlett wasn't playing for a fair chunk, Robinson pretty much spent the year suspended, and Waite was his usually inconsistent Waite. I don't see how St Kilda or Bulldogs have enough improvement to overtake them this year.

 

[Adam H]

Speaks volumes of St Kilda's list that there were no guys able to replace these clearly unfit players

Hilarious. Fisher Gilbert were given late games as our injury list was close to the worst in the AFL.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

We've still got Boyd. Both of them.

Griffen and Cooney were the only two that finished their year in the AFL who left us. Tutt played 20 odd games over 5 years for us while Jones and Higgins were largely VFL players last year.

While I don't think the dogs are going to win the spoon, let's not rewrite history.

Higgins played 20 games at AFL level in 2014.

 

[ManOfClay]

While I don't think the dogs are going to win the spoon, let's not rewrite history.

Higgins played 20 games at AFL level.

Sorry. Jones was largely a VFL player while Higgins found himself playing VFL at times

 

[TBOW]

I agree with your bottom point to a fair degree, as you of course started getting your really top end young talent a draft or so earlier than we did, so understandably they are likely to be ready to make a really strong impact sooner than ours, but as far as your other points go I think it's going to be a lot closer than some who haven't had a really good look at our respective lists would realise.

I'd suggest that because of how many injuries we've had this past couple of years that those who don't follow us closely don't realise that we still have 7 on our list who have played multiple grand finals (plus Savage, who played one for Hawthorn), plus we also have another 3 who were here in the grand final years, and played at times in those seasons under Lyon and who have all played at least one final- but who didn't get to play in those GF's- in Jack Steven, David Armitage and Jarryn Geary, plus Dylan Roberton, who played a couple of finals under Ross Lyon at Freo.

So we have 12 on our list who have finals experience compared to 7 on yours and those on our list have played a combined 26 grand finals and 113 finals, compared to zero GF's and just the 51 finals for the 7 on yours, so as far as experience goes, I'd suggest we actually still have a considerable amount more of it, which is why I could easily enough see us finishing higher, if we turn around our injury run of the past couple of seasons and are more used to the way Richo wants us to play and so-on (which we are hearing is the case with the young ones in particular- the older ones played that sort of manic-defensive footy under Lyon, so it would be like putting on an old pair of shoes for them).

It could be an interesting "race" and of course we have an easier draw this year than we did last year. Last year, in spite of the fact we finished bottom 4 the year before, we didn't play ANY of the previous year's bottom 4 twice for the season, whereas I think this year we play at least 2 of last year's bottom 4 twice, because we've now been down the bottom for two years and the AFL want to make it easier on us as far as the draw goes (you guys were in this position last year- coming off two consecutive years down the bottom- and from memory you got to play at least two of the previous year's bottom 4 twice, which would have helped you rise up the ladder a bit).

To be honest I just don't see guys like Farren Ray & Sam Fisher making a huge impact in a struggling team. They're the kind of players that are great when you're flying but don't impact a game enough when the going is tough.

I guess we'll find out.

(Also- cheeky counting the drawn grandfinal as 2)

 

[Adam H]

Sorry. Jones was largely a VFL player while Higgins found himself playing VFL at times

Got rid of Jones yet kept Grant Cordy and Redpath. Odd.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Sorry. Jones was largely a VFL player while Higgins found himself playing VFL at times

Once, for two games.

 

[Adam H]

To be honest I just don't see guys like Farren Ray & Sam Fisher making a huge impact in a struggling team. They're the kind of players that are great when you're flying but don't impact a game enough when the going is tough.

I guess we'll find out.

(Also- cheeky counting the drawn grandfinal as 2)

Ray maybe but Fisher is one of the better defenders in the AFL. He showed is class albeit underdone in his few games last season.

 

[ManOfClay]

Once, for two games.

So what I said was essentially correct (the second time).

 

[Periphery]

(Also- cheeky counting the drawn grandfinal as 2)

Why wouldn't it? Two games were played and playing more games creates more experience.

 

[TBOW]

Why wouldn't it? Two games were played and playing more games creates more experience.

Yeah but St.Kilda only turned up for one...

 

[Periphery]

Yeah but St.Kilda only turned up for one...

Better than turning up for none.

 

[TBOW]

Better than turning up for none.

Touche