Prediction 2017 Ladder (Bumped - two rounds to go)

[Vdubs]

The game where Geelong was almost overrun and won because Smith missed a shot after the siren? Not so convincing.

Win
Final
Post bye
Hawks

 

[David the Cat]

The game where Geelong was almost overrun and won because Smith missed a shot after the siren? Not so convincing.

If's and buts don't count .....look at the scoreboard.

 

[Landgraft]

I've expected us to lose the QF all along but I'm not sure why Adelaide hold so much fear for people. They're gettable at AO and anything but a foregone conclusion.

 

[fpm84]

I've expected us to lose the QF all along but I'm not sure why Adelaide hold so much fear for people. They're gettable at AO and anything but a foregone conclusion.

Yep. Adelaide in Adelaide would suit me just fine.

A little bit of overreaction here based on our last loss to them. Dangerfield on one leg, Selwood and Hawkins ill and Stewart and Scooter rusty after a month out (both have worked their way back into good form since).

 

[Ashb23]

We beat Hawthorn in our most recent post- bye finals, and I am relieved.
Besides, we actually need that bye this year.

Yeah, I wish I could forget that prelim final loss as well, but it happened

 

[JohnZ]

Looking at the Ladder Predictor, we can meet Sydney in the Prelim two ways:

1) Port, Sydney and GWS win both games, We beat Pies
2) Geelong, Sydney win both games, Port wins one (lower % than Sydney)

So basically if Port lose v Bulldogs, we should tank v GWS

Adelaide there doesn't scare me, we had an off night where the ball didn't bounce our way, but we've played well there in the past. Would love to finish 2nd and host GWS though, a KP final against those pretenders would be good fun to watch.

 

[Dawn to Dark]

Here's our best possible and most plausible outcome for the rest of the year

1st - Adelaide: 66 Points - (Beat Sydney at AO, Lose to West Coast at Subiaco)
2nd - Geelong: 62 Points - (Beat Collingwood at MCG, Beat GWS at KP)
3rd - GWS: 60 Points - (Beat West Coast at Spotless, Lose to Geelong at KP)
4th - Richmond: 56 Points - (Beat Fremantle at Subiaco, Lose to St Kilda at the MCG)
5th - Sydney: 52 Points (Best Percentage) - (Lose to Adelaide at AO, Beat Carlton at SCG
6th - Port Adelaide: 52 Points - (Lose to Bulldogs at Ballarat, Beat Gold Coast at AO)
7th - Melbourne: 52 Points (Beat Brisbane at the MCG, Beat Collingwood at the MCG)
8th - Western Bulldogs: 52 Points (Beat Port at Ballarat, Beat Hawks at Etihad)

Anyone's guess for finals but it would look like

Adelaide VS Richmond @AO
Geelong VS GWS @KP

Sydney VS Western Bulldogs @SCG
Port Adelaide VS Melbourne @AO

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

Has it been confirmed that it will be played at KP if Geelong finish 2nd and GWS finish 3rd? That would be an excellent result if so, especially since it would be likely in that scenario that we would have just beaten them there a fortnight earlier.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Has it been confirmed that it will be played at KP if Geelong finish 2nd and GWS finish 3rd? That would be an excellent result if so, especially since it would be likely in that scenario that we would have just beaten them there a fortnight earlier.

Its not confirmed but its likely-if they are 2nd and we are 3rd they will host us at spotless which has a lower crowd capacity than KP so we should be allowed the same hosting right if we are 2nd.

 

[Zuta]

In the Addy today they said that it would be unlikely as the AFL have to meet there obligations with the MCG. I thought they got rid of that rule however and therefore it shouldn't matter if there isn't a game in Melbourne for week 1 of the finals.

 

[Ashb23]

It is

In the Addy today they said that it would be unlikely as the AFL have to meet there obligations with the MCG. I thought they got rid of that rule however and therefore it shouldn't matter if there isn't a game in Melbourne for week 1 of the finals.

probably more for series ticket holders (do they still have those?) and AFL members.

 

[JohnZ]

We all know the AFL will shaft us when it comes to HOME finals, but it wouldn't be unexpected that 35,000 watch a Geelong v GWS final at the MCG. From a selfish point of view as an AFL member, I get cheaper finals tickets at the G compared to KP, but Id' prefer it to be played at KP. Much better atmosphere.

 

[catempire]

Avoiding the Swans scenario:

 

[catempire]

Unfortunately I see this as more likely:

 

[Mr Meow]

Unfortunately I see this as more likely:

View attachment 406399

View attachment 406400

I'd still rather the Swans have two chances to be upset and possibly face them in a prelim, than a scenario where we could lose a QF then play them with a likely chance to go out in straight sets. It's probably a 50/50 chance we face them at some point either way.

 

[fpm84]

As per the Herald-Sun today:

If we finish 2nd (beat GWS) and Richmond finish 4th (by beating St Kilda but not by enough to overtake GWS on percentage), our home qualifying final will be the only week one final in Victoria and increasingly likely to be played at the MCG instead of Simonds.

However:

If we finish 2nd (beat GWS) and Richmond miss the top 4 (lose to St Kilda by any margin - will be overtaken by Sydney and/or Port Adelaide), Richmond will finish 5th/6th and earn an MCG elimination final meaning our qualifying final could be played in Geelong.

Clearly the best results for us this weekend are for us to beat GWS and St Kilda to beat Richmond.

 

[Munich]

So if we finish 3rd, and Rich finish 4th, still no finals in Melb...

Geelong should be demanding we play at KP if we're hosting GWS.

The MCG rule is bullshit, there have been more than enough finals played there over the past years, to fill the quota.

 

[Zuta]

If this is anything to go by we wont be getting our first final at Simonds:

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Finals-Ticket-Prices-2017.pdf

I think that if Richmond lose this week and have a final at the MCG we should 100% have a final at Simonds. They cant use the excuse of contract obligations then!

 

[kickazz]

AFL want a final at spotless so will rig the umpiring this Saturday.

 

[fpm84]

AFL want a final at spotless so will rig the umpiring this Saturday.

They'll get one.... a semi-final after we beat GWS in week one.