2017 Ladder Predictions

[Dez!]

You would be used to low standards, being a Melbourne supporter and all

Ah the mark of a beaten man, throwing jabs at the club someone supports when they have nothing else going for them.

 

[dylan93]

Post JLT Prediction:

1. Sydney
2. GWS (Premiers)
3. Adelaide
4. Western Bulldogs
5. West Coast
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. St. Kilda
--------------------
9. Hawthorn
10. Collingwood
11. Fremantle
12. Port Adelaide
13. Gold Coast
14. Essendon
15. Richmond
16. North Melbourne
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane

2017 Finals:

Week 1 - Qualifying / Elimination Finals:
Sydney def. Western Bulldogs
West Coast def. St. Kilda
Geelong def. Melbourne
GWS def. Adelaide

Week 2 - Semi Finals:
Western Bulldogs def. West Coast
Adelaide def. Geelong

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals:
Sydney def. Adelaide
GWS def. Western Bulldogs

Week 4 - Grand Final:
Sydney def by. GWS

Premiers: GWS (Win by 17 points)
Brownlow: Patrick Dangerfield (GEEL)
Coleman: Tom Lynch (GCS)
Norm Smith: Heath Shaw (GWS)
Rising Star: Sam Powell-Pepper (PORT)

 

[Roovolution]

Now that's just plain wrong.

Anyway, I'm tired of filling up this thread with my trash so if you don't think White is best 22 then ok, it's all hypothetical since he doesn't even play for Melbourne. I just think he's much better than given credit for and his 2016 was half decent. Those who refer to him as a hack and so on are most likely coming from people who don't even watch Collingwood games.

When he's hot he's decent but then he just disappears

 

[Chaisa]

What's this graph based on? Has to be wrong if it's 2016 stats?

JLT series I believe.

 

[ManOfClay]

Should be fixed now:

I'm surprised it isn't spun to make port the best given they've now won a preseason match.

A pretty graph and obviously great for the stat nerds but a stupid concept. You don't need to meet certain statistical parameters to win a flag, you just need to be the best team when it counts

 

[The Plowking]

No he's really average. Have watched closely since the last time a collingwood supporter tried to talk him up.


2016 was a big improvement for him but he's only getting mercy praise. Collingwood would upgrade him tomorrow if someone was on the market.

Calling him 'decent' is hardly talking him up.
Its no secret we require another key forward.
But White plays his role ok and im not sure said gun key forward would be taking Jesse's role.
Past Crucial mistakes burn hard in the memory and are not easily forgotten.
They overshadow any good he does.
Barely put a foot wrong last season.

 

[SuperSteele22]

I'm surprised it isn't spun to make port the best given they've now won a preseason match.

A pretty graph and obviously great for the stat nerds but a stupid concept. You don't need to meet certain statistical parameters to win a flag, you just need to be the best team when it counts

Precisely this.

Flogs like Kingy and Healy can give all the stats and graphs they want but at the end of the day it's the side with the heart and grunt that's going to prevail.

Take last year for example. Sydney were arguably the most complete side across the duration of the season but with 10 minutes to go in a grand final the game was up for grabs, one team grabbed it and the other didn't - and because of that a cup was held aloft. No amount of stats can justify or predict that sort of thing.

 

[BigVic]

My not-so biased ladder predictions after the JLT preseason series

1. GWS Giants
2. Sydney Swans
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Adelaide
5. Melbourne
6. St Kilda
7. West Coast
8. Essendon
----------
9. Geelong
10. Collingwood
11. Hawthorn
12. Gold Coast
13. Fremantle
14. North Melbourne
15. Port Adelaide
16. Richmond
17. Brisbane Lions
18. Carlton

 

[blueiris]

My not-so biased ladder predictions after the JLT preseason series

1. GWS Giants
2. Sydney Swans
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Adelaide
5. Melbourne
6. St Kilda
7. West Coast
8. Essendon
----------
9. Geelong
10. Collingwood
11. Hawthorn
12. Gold Coast
13. Port Adelaide
14. North Melbourne
15. Port Adelaide
16. Richmond
17. Brisbane Lions
18. Carlton

You've got Port twice being Lions have they're first pick really interested in which one is the real Port Adelaide

 

[jakefooty23]

trolling a bloke with well documented issues with mental illness.

you're ******* pathetic.

Trolling? It's the truth, not trolling.

 

[saintscott]

Our midfields aren't debatable - ours is clearly superior. No discussion. Pendlebury, Treloar both established A graders - Wells, Sidebottom and Adams B at worst.

Your back line is better I'll give you that. Rance and Grimes I rate, and it's a lot more stable than our back line which needs time and development. Ramsay and Maynard are works in the making. They will be brilliant.

Our forward line is better but; the only match-up that you win is Riewoldt > Moore
Edwards + Griffiths + Caddy + Rioli + Riewoldt + Lloyd = 146 goals in their last played season (122 games total)
Moore + Fasolo + Elliott + Sidebottom + Mayne + White = 142 goals in their last played season (107 games total)
1.2 goals a game for Richmond's forward six on average vs. 1.33 per game at Collingwood.

I'll concede you have the best forward of the pair in Riewoldt, he'll likely slot around 20 more goals than Moore, however

Elliott = Lloyd (both kicked 35 goals in their more recent season, I'll keep it even until Elliott plays more footy)
Fasolo > Rioli
White > Griffiths
Sidebottom > Caddy
Chris Mayne > Shane Edwards (forward impact)

Not sure about fasolo over rioli. Watched rioli up close a couple of times last year and think he will be an out and out GUN. Maybe fasolo has him now but expect that to change this year

 

[00Stinger]

My not-so biased ladder predictions after the JLT preseason series

1. GWS Giants
2. Sydney Swans
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Adelaide
5. Melbourne
6. St Kilda
7. West Coast
8. Essendon
----------
9. Geelong
10. Collingwood
11. Hawthorn
12. Gold Coast
13. Fremantle
14. North Melbourne
15. Port Adelaide
16. Richmond
17. Brisbane Lions
18. Carlton

Melbourne above West Coast, what is your theory there?

 

[adammania9]

Not sure about fasolo over rioli. Watched rioli up close a couple of times last year and think he will be an out and out GUN. Maybe fasolo has him now but expect that to change this year

Fasolo averaged more than 2 goals a game last year; 22 games would have seen 47 goals. He's a very good footballer.

 

[adammania9]

Ah the mark of a beaten man, throwing jabs at the club someone supports when they have nothing else going for them.

Yeah sounds about right*

*Jesse White would be best 22 at Melbourne

 

[sverik25]

I went through the fixture and assigned what I thought was the probability of each team winning each match, in a squiggle-like method, from 0.05 to 0.95. This was the ladder I came out with, after rounding to whole wins.

1. GWS 17-5
2. Sydney 16-6
3. Western Bulldogs 15-7
4. Adelaide 14-8
5. West Coast 13-9
6. Geelong 13-9
7. Melbourne 12-10
8. Hawthorn 12-10

9. St Kilda 12-10
10. Port Adelaide 11-11
11. Gold Coast 10-12
12. Collingwood 9-13
13. Richmond 9-13
14. Fremantle 9-13
15. Essendon 8-14
16. North Melbourne 8-14
17. Brisbane 5-17
18. Carlton 5-17

It probably slightly underestimates the number of wins the top teams will receive and overestimates the number of wins the bottom teams will receive, but I'm pretty happy with the ranking. Hawthorn pipped St Kilda for 8th spot by 0.15 wins.

 

[drazah]

I did the ladder predictor and pretty surprised by how much the fixture actually affects the ladder prediction. I had:

How'd you do that? The 2017 ladder predictor isn't up yet.

 

[drazah]

Should be fixed now:

So literally every team has a sub-standard attack? I think you've stuffed it up lol.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Should be fixed now:

Please take into account the different rules.

Lets use Melbourne as the example

Super GOals - Reduce the 3 points per Super Goal
Game 1 - Now 92 vs 80 (defence better by 6 points)
Game 2 - Still 116 vs 82
Game 3 - Now 67 vs 95 (offence worse by 3 points)

Now we need to take into account different time on rules
A rough estimate based on everything would be to times scores in games 1 and 2 by 1.2

This gives us
Week 1 - 110 vs 96
Week 2 - 139 vs 98

Then you also have to take into account lesser intent. Which means higher defensive intensity
Basing my new adjusted pre-season scores to match regular season scoring (last year) it's just a simple deduction of 3

So. For this would mean Melbourne's offence goes from 93 to 102 (Adequate offence) and its defence goes from 88 to 93 (Inadequate defence)

My point: Your stats and point is irrelevant (and your melbourne defence is still wrong. It should be right where you have Geelong right now and thats before adjustments)

 

[Dez!]

Yeah sounds about right*

*Jesse White would be best 22 at Melbourne

Still incorrect.

 

[Milanista28]

trolling a bloke with well documented issues with mental illness.

you're ******* pathetic.

How outraged are you right now?

 

[Milanista28]

Throughout the JLT we looked awesome and diabolical, Could be a snapshot of our year.

Our best is easily in finals contention our worst is bottom 4, I still have zero idea on how to place us.

 

[drazah]

Here

Dammit I just made my own in the last 20 minutes haha.

 

[00Stinger]

A final ladder predictor after going through the full fixture and now the JLT series is done.

1. SYDNEY 18-4
2. ADELAIDE 16-6
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS 16-6
4. GSW 15-7
5. WEST COAST 15-7
6. MELBOURNE 15-7
7. ST KILDA 14-8
8. GEELONG 11-11
9. Collingwood 10-11
10. Hawthorn 10-11
11. Fremantle 10-11
12. Gold Coast 9-13
13. Port Adelaide 8-14
14. Brisbane 7-15
15. Richmond 7-15
16. North Melbourne 7-15
17. Essendon 7-15
18. Carlton 3-19

I think the only guarantee is Carlton finish last

 

[jakefooty23]

How outraged are you right now?

I dunno if he's outraged at the comment by Adammania or the fact that Carlton ripped Richmond off in the Yarran deal.

 

[Super Hans]

My finals pre season predictions:

1 - Sydney
2 - GWS
3 - Western Bulldogs
4 - West Coast
5 - Geelong
6 - Hawthorn
7 - Adelaide
8 - Essendon

9 - St Kilda
10 - Melbourne
11 - Collingwood
12 - Fremantle
13 - Port Adelaide
14 - North Melbourne
15 - Richmond
16 - Gold Coast
17 - Brisbane
18 - Carlton