2018 AFL Crowds & Ratings thread

[JayJ20]

Showdowns and Derby's are usually very good games to watch.

Should be stand alone, on the national stage, free to air, and built up as the game of the week

Thursday or Friday night is an absolute no brainer imo

I don't know about you, but I can't remember the last interesting derby. The showdown is streets ahead.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I don't know about you, but I can't remember the last interesting derby. The showdown is streets ahead.

Even when they are blow outs, I tend to find they have more intensity than the usual games (and by intensity I'm not talk gaff sort of stuff)

 

[Billy ray]

I wonder though if there is a tacit agreement between the AFL and the WAFL/SANFL not to fixture on these days in those states as the state league generally hold major fixtures of their own on these days.

Perhaps. But im thinking of Sunday night games if the monday is a holiday not necessarily a game on the monday which would have limited tv audience.

 

[Fozdog]

Channel 7would inhibert Sunday night games. They’d not want anything up against their Master Chef.

 

[Billy ray]

Channel 7would inhibert Sunday night games. They’d not want anything up against their Master Chef.

Fox game then

 

[Gigantor]

Interesing that the ratings have improved.
State of the game: Ratings ease AFL's concerns

The AFL has told the clubs that their broadcast audience, down for much of 2018 in a slump arguably tied to the state of the game, has lifted over the past three to four weeks.

In a change that might reflect the improved quality of games over the past month, the AFL gave a presentation to club chief executives in which they were told that the television audiences – and the numbers of people viewing games on tablets and phones — had increased during recent weeks.

The rise in ratings and in the viewership on devices in the past few weeks follows a season-long debate about the look of the game and potential rule changes, with the improved ratings coinciding with a push-back against the more radical potential changes, such as starting positions at all stoppages – which appears to have been put on the back-burner for 2019 as the AFL pushes more incremental changes.

The AFL gave the clubs details of the broadcast numbers – including for mobiles and tablets – and discussed the long-term outlook for broadcasting.

It would be nice to get a handle on those mobile and tablet numbers, and know where it sits compared to the other football codes.

 

[Rezza Tiger]

Is 60K still a reasonable estimate for the Hawks v Cats game on Saturday? Weather forecast very ordinary with 3-10mm rain and possible hail.

 

[dave10]

Is 60K still a reasonable estimate for the Hawks v Cats game on Saturday? Weather forecast very ordinary with 3-10mm rain and possible hail.

If the weather is poor it may struggle to get there. Maybe mid 50’s. It’s not really the blockbuster it was 5 years ago so it’s not going to be the enormous crowd it once was. Anything close to 60,000 is a good crowd.

 

[Cmarsh]

Interesing that the ratings have improved.
State of the game: Ratings ease AFL's concerns

The AFL has told the clubs that their broadcast audience, down for much of 2018 in a slump arguably tied to the state of the game, has lifted over the past three to four weeks.

In a change that might reflect the improved quality of games over the past month, the AFL gave a presentation to club chief executives in which they were told that the television audiences – and the numbers of people viewing games on tablets and phones — had increased during recent weeks.

The rise in ratings and in the viewership on devices in the past few weeks follows a season-long debate about the look of the game and potential rule changes, with the improved ratings coinciding with a push-back against the more radical potential changes, such as starting positions at all stoppages – which appears to have been put on the back-burner for 2019 as the AFL pushes more incremental changes.

The AFL gave the clubs details of the broadcast numbers – including for mobiles and tablets – and discussed the long-term outlook for broadcasting.

The clubs were told that the 2019 fixture would remain in the same format as this year’s version, with two byes and a ‘‘weighted’’ schedule in which the teams that play twice are decided by ladder position, with the 18 teams divided into three groups of six.

The AFL’s football boss Steve Hocking also told the clubs about the proposed rule changes such as the ‘‘six-six-six’’ format at centre bounces and the enlarged goal square – changes that will be trialled this weekend again in the VFL game between the Northern Blues – Carlton’s reserves team – and Coburg.

Just wondering what Roy Masters has to say about this? Anything?

 

[kaypee]

Just wondering what Roy Masters has to say about this? Anything?

he'll say something like the AFL corruptly did something to once again thwart league because the afl is corrupt and the figures are all lies. have i told you about the kieran jack thing? and the Giants are the AFL's Waterloo. The Suns its Vietnam...... repeat until the end of the page

 

[legend166]

I also know that when you do the fixture half a year in advance you cant predict all factors, including form slides and big injury lists. Then there are other factors around public holiday events and byes, plus the AFL believing that sides like Carlton have a large enough support base to warrant the tv time.

You can't predict form slides, yes. But that's not what the AFL are doing. Their major problem is they try and predict form jumps. It's pretty rare for a previously top 8 team to just completely stink and become bottom 4, so if you get a form slide, it's not the end of the world if they still have a few Friday night games because they'll still be competitive. But if you're taking a flyer on a bottom 4 team becoming good and they still stink just as much then you're in trouble.

 

[Tassieboy]

If the weather is poor it may struggle to get there. Maybe mid 50’s. It’s not really the blockbuster it was 5 years ago so it’s not going to be the enormous crowd it once was. Anything close to 60,000 is a good crowd.

55K is the updated estimate.

 

[magic_johnson!]

I think 55k would be pretty disappointing, still be hoping for high 50s even in the rain.

 

[Our Game]

I think 55k would be pretty disappointing, still be hoping for high 50s even in the rain.

The weather will determine the size of the crowd 55,000 plus would be a good crowd.

 

[Hawkk]

Re the Hawks v Cats crowd the lowest since 2007 is 55,802 for the round 19 2015 fixture between Hawthorn (14-4) and Geelong (9-8-1). The average home and away attendance for the fixture is 70,802 over the past decade but this game will likely be ravaged by weather (despite strong ticket sales in be AFL members - slightly ahead of Hawks v Dons which drew ~ 68,853)

Hawthorn have been extremely unlucky with weather this season (or perhaps lucky in past seasons). Of the 6 MCG home games 3 have been weather affected (Melbourne, Sydney and Geelong) and that Adelaide fixture drew a dreadful crowd which coincided with the soccer.

The result is that despite a much improved season (2018 - 12/7, 2017 - 8/1/10) Hawthorn’s home games against Sydney (2018 - 32,784, 2017 - 52,181), Adelaide (2018 - 26,693, 2017 - 37,420) and Geelong (2018 - 73,389, 55,000 est, 2017 - 62,430, 70,345) are much lower then past seasons.

It’s a winter sport but those numbers are way down on what should be expected

The positive out of the round is that Melbourne’s match against Sydney has been revised up from 46,000 to 49,000 meaning Melbourne is an outside shot at breaking their largest crowd against a non Victorian club (Melbourne v Sydney in round 21, 1998 - 52,614).

The disappointing crowd last week was probably a byproduct of Melbourne fans prioritising the Sydney and GWS fixtures. Football fans are quite perceptive like that

 

[dave10]

Re the Hawks v Cats crowd the lowest since 2007 is 55,802 for the round 19 2015 fixture between Hawthorn (14-4) and Geelong (9-8-1). The average home and away attendance for the fixture is 70,802 over the past decade but this game will likely be ravaged by weather (despite strong ticket sales in be AFL members - slightly ahead of Hawks v Dons which drew ~ 68,853)

Hawthorn have been extremely unlucky with weather this season (or perhaps lucky in past seasons). Of the 6 MCG home games 3 have been weather affected (Melbourne, Sydney and Geelong) and that Adelaide fixture drew a dreadful crowd which coincided with the soccer.

The result is that despite a much improved season (2018 - 12/7, 2017 - 8/1/10) Hawthorn’s home games against Sydney (2018 - 32,784, 2017 - 52,181), Adelaide (2018 - 26,693, 2017 - 37,420) and Geelong (2018 - 73,389, 55,000 est, 2017 - 62,430, 70,345) are much lower then past seasons.

It’s a winter sport but those numbers are way down on what should be expected

The positive out of the round is that Melbourne’s match against Sydney has been revised up from 46,000 to 49,000 meaning Melbourne is an outside shot at breaking their largest crowd against a non Victorian club (Melbourne v Sydney in round 21, 1998 - 52,614).

The disappointing crowd last week was probably a byproduct of Melbourne fans prioritising the Sydney and GWS fixtures. Football fans are quite perceptive like that

This match was predicted by the MCG to draw 60,000 on Monday, now lowered with weather factored in to 55,000. The AFL members reflects neutral attendees rather than raw rank and file demand.

60,000 is what it would’ve drawn on a nice day. This isn’t the top of the table clash of yesteryear.

 

[Rezza Tiger]

I could swear the MCG "attendance predictor" reads this thread. They always seem to revise their estimates in line with estimations on here maybe just coincidence?

 

[Hawkk]

This match was predicted by the MCG to draw 60,000 on Monday, now lowered with weather factored in to 55,000. The AFL members reflects neutral attendees rather than raw rank and file demand.

60,000 is what it would’ve drawn on a nice day. This isn’t the top of the table clash of yesteryear.

I’m just stating that a mid 50,000 attendance would be on lower rung of expectations (as would 60,000) based on a decade of demonstrated attendances. In terms of rank or file the game has traditionally recorded a high level of attendance amongst Hawthorn members, the general public and afl membership (hence the large Hawks/Cats and Hawks/Swans crowds since 2007).

The game for what it’s worth hasn’t been a regular top of the table fixture in the return fixture since at least 2014 (in 2016 we didn’t play each other in a return fixture)

Hawthorn’s home MCG attendances (weather affected or not) have been 10,000 / 20,000 down on last years attendances despite a much improved season on the field (certainly no b2b 86 pt beltings, goalless halves or 1-4 starts to the season).

I don’t understand how an out of contention Hawthorn (2 games out of the 8) drew 52,000 plus to the mid winter fixture against the Swans last season whilst we could make the top 4 this season and still only draw three half decent MCG attendances for the year (Geel, Rich, Ess)

 

[Rabman]

37,483 at the Docklands.

 

[Our Game]

37,483 at the Docklands.

Didnt look like too many Saints fans bothered to turn up and you couldnt blame them.In the circumstances about what you would expect.

 

[dave10]

Didnt look like too many Saints fans bothered to turn up and you couldnt blame them.In the circumstances about what you would expect.

I’m not going to be hard on the Saints fans, I saw first hand tonight why they didn’t turn up and with good reason.. but to your point, I don’t think I’m being too unkind to suggest they probably only had 4-5,000 of their fans there tonight.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Very good turnout in all of the circumstances for Essendon.

 

[McCrann]

1. 2008 - Average (36,996). Total of 6,511,255.
2. 2010 - Average (36,908). Total of 6,495,814.
3. 2007 - Average (36,793). Total of 6,475,521.
4. 2009 - Average (36,195). Total of 6,370,401.
5. 2005 - Average (35,703). Total of 6,283,788.
6. 2006 - Average (35,250). Total of 6,204,056.
7. 2011 - Average (34,893). Total of 6,525,071.
8. 2018 - Average (34,837). Total so far of 6,270,730. On track for 6,897,803 (New Record if achieved).
9. 1998 - Average (34,768). Total of 6,119,164.
10. 2017 - Average (34,010). Total of 6,734,062. Current Record.

Compiled from this page.
https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/summary.html


Round 21 Crowds
Bombers v Saints. 37,483... Almost bang on required average to beat 2006 crowd averages. Definitely line-ball.
Hawks v Cats. 59,529. Total so far. 97,012. Average so far. 48,506. On target.
Suns v Tigers. 18,102. Total so far. 115,104. Average so far. 38,371. Just below target to hit 7 million spectators.
Power v Eagles. 32,534. Total so far. 147,648. Average so far. 36,912. On target to beat 2011 crowd averages.
Pies v Lions. 33,390. Total so far. 181,038. Average so far. 36,207. On target to beat 2011 crowd averages.
Giants v Crows. 13,249. Total so far. 194,287. Average so far. 32,381. On target for a new record.
Kangas v Dogs. 27,031. Total so far. 221,318. Average so far. 31,617. On target for a new record.
Demons v Swans. 51,424. Total so far. 272,742. Average so far. 34,093. On target to beat 1998 crowd averages.
Dockers v Blues. 40,028. Round total: 312,770. Round Average: 34,752. On target to beat 1998 crowd averages.

Projected Round Crowd. 315K. Average per match of 35K. Below the required rate to break all of the below crowd records. Approximately on track to break the 2011 Crowds Average.

Well, the crowds this round hit the mark and were pretty much as predicted.

18 Matches to go.
For a new Record Crowds must Average: 25,741 (Will do easily).
To beat 1998 Crowds must Average: 34,074. (Should do easily).
To beat 2011 Crowds must Average (Gold Coast introduced to competition): 35,454 (Should do).
To beat 2006 Crowds must Average: 39,380 (Slipping away from possibility...).
To exceed 7 million Spectators Crowds must Average: 40,515 (Needs an 80,000+ crowd for Tigers v Bombers!).

Certainly won't threaten the Top 5 Crowd Averages. Maybe in 2019.

 

[dave10]

Very good turnout in all of the circumstances for Essendon.

It was a little larger than I expected... Pity about all the injuries (likely suspensions) to key personel in the end as it basically has us highly vulnerable for next week and a likely flogging. I doubt the Essendon people will turn up in large numbers next week with finals realistically gone and a team struggling to get to the finish line in a physical sense. Sorry Tiger army

 

[Tassieboy]

What crowd for Collingwood and Brisbane? 40k?