AFL 2018 - AFL Finals Week 1

[footy75]

I think the Tigers have played so well the last few weeks. The best ive seen in years for a premiership contender. No nerves just win when required, most of that team can get almost twice as good and probably will.
Similar to Hawks 2013 and 2014 just waited all year for finals

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Thats what im thinking..

i expect the tigers to go up a notch now.

 

[footy75]

I rekon the Giants are good value here. They controlled most of the game vs Sydney in Rnd 22. Swans exploded in the last quarter because the Giants were down multiple rotations, one of those players being Davis which also allowed for Franklin to get off the leash. Kelly will also be playing this time around, with the possible inclusions of Deledio and Greene.

**** thats a hard game to pick... who knows

 

[footy75]

West Coast 1.70 mmmmm

u wont find 1.70 now.

good value for eagles in perth... a lot of people are bullish on the pies. but Eagles in perth... hard to beat.

 

[Prochard123]

Can everyone post their prediction on most possessions (which player, and how many) for:

1. Hawks vs Rich
2. Pies vs Eagles
3. Sydney vs GWS
4. Geelong vs Melbourne

 

[chrisdon16]

MEL/GEE - o168.5 ($1.91 Topbetta)

 

[demon_fanatic]

MEL/GEE - o168.5 ($1.91 Topbetta)

Can't see it..must have been pulled,got $1.87 168.5 tab it's alread174.5 b365..if it goes up a couple more points good middle chance!

 

[chrisdon16]

Can't see it..must have been pulled,got $1.87 168.5 tab it's alread174.5 b365..if it goes up a couple more points good middle chance!

They pulled it. Still 167.5 at Lad, 170.5 at Beteasy.

 

[PP34]

Think the Pies will get the job done. They are hurting with some injuries to their defence but I think their midfield will get the job done, particularly with Gaff and Nic Nat not there.

Tigers Hawks could be close, but I still like Richmond to blow the game out somwhat in the last. But would not be surprised at all if Clarko has them right in the game at the death.

Can’t go against the Cats in a big final with all their experience. Seen with Richmond, the Dogs and Carlton that they struggled in their first finals outings with young sides. Watching the Dees the last two seasons and they’ve got all the signs of being a team that may not cope well in a tough first September outing.

Giants will really benefit from the week off. Injuries hurt them recently. Before the Crows game they were probably the form team of the competition then injuries struck and left them missing top 4. Stopping Buddy will be big.

 

[Prochard123]

Think the Pies will get the job done. They are hurting with some injuries to their defence but I think their midfield will get the job done, particularly with Gaff and Nic Nat not there.

Tigers Hawks could be close, but I still like Richmond to blow the game out somwhat in the last. But would not be surprised at all if Clarko has them right in the game at the death.

Can’t go against the Cats in a big final with all their experience. Seen with Richmond, the Dogs and Carlton that they struggled in their first finals outings with young sides. Watching the Dees the last two seasons and they’ve got all the signs of being a team that may not cope well in a tough first September outing.

Giants will really benefit from the week off. Injuries hurt them recently. Before the Crows game they were probably the form team of the competition then injuries struck and left them missing top 4. Stopping Buddy will be big.

By the sound of it if Treloar/Goldsack (critical)/Reid/WHE/Moore are not 100% fit, we will rest them and go all out in our second chance.

I think If we get Treloar + Goldsack + Moore back, and WHE plays, we will probably smash West Coast by 30+ points.

But for this week, West Coast by 12.

 

[mookieb]

By the sound of it if Treloar/Goldsack (critical)/Reid/WHE/Moore are not 100% fit, we will rest them and go all out in our second chance.

I think If we get Treloar + Goldsack + Moore back, and WHE plays, we will probably smash West Coast by 30+ points.

But for this week, West Coast by 12.

What makes you think that WC could get done by 30+ points at home? How many times has this happened in Perth. Plus WC smashed Coll at the MCG couple of months ago.

Moore has done little, although as a backman I feel he offers far more. WHE has played all year. Goldsack has been a borderline player filling a few roles over the last couple of years. Treloar is a gun but don't think he's in the frame for this week.

I think Coll would have a cracking team if all players were fully fit. Their form the last third of the season wasn't outstanding, but I attribute much of this to injuries. If they get a few players back with the week refresh they might do a WB, but I feel GWS would be a better option for a team to get some players back and go on a massive run.

 

[NonPhixion]

What makes you think that WC could get done by 30+ points at home? How many times has this happened in Perth. Plus WC smashed Coll at the MCG couple of months ago.

Moore has done little, although as a backman I feel he offers far more. WHE has played all year. Goldsack has been a borderline player filling a few roles over the last couple of years. Treloar is a gun but don't think he's in the frame for this week.

I think Coll would have a cracking team if all players were fully fit. Their form the last third of the season wasn't outstanding, but I attribute much of this to injuries. If they get a few players back with the week refresh they might do a WB, but I feel GWS would be a better option for a team to get some players back and go on a massive run.

Bit of food for thought here. But I rekon if it rains on Sat night in Perth we are a massive chance to win, and id go as far as saying we should be favourites too. In the dry, Darling and Kennedy will cause havoc to our short Backline. The rain should negate there impact and may make our smaller forward line more dangerous, because Eagles create a lot of play off Half-Back from Hurn and McGovern intercept marking. More so, the Eagles play a high Kick and mark game which is harder to execute in the wet conditions, while the Pies tend to use more handballs through traffic to transition the footy. If there is rain throughout the game, Pies will win. Bookmark it.

 

[maskmcgee]

Besteasy $2 favourites on all games.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Besteasy $2 favourites on all games.

Nrl one with Syd Roosters is value

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[TryAnHit]

How is the gary ayes medal worked out on games played? If a side plays 4 matches do all 4 matches count for votes? Or a max of 3?

 

[iluvparis]

Nrl one with Syd Roosters is value

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They are all value

 

[Prochard123]

What makes you think that WC could get done by 30+ points at home? How many times has this happened in Perth. Plus WC smashed Coll at the MCG couple of months ago.

Moore has done little, although as a backman I feel he offers far more. WHE has played all year. Goldsack has been a borderline player filling a few roles over the last couple of years. Treloar is a gun but don't think he's in the frame for this week.

I think Coll would have a cracking team if all players were fully fit. Their form the last third of the season wasn't outstanding, but I attribute much of this to injuries. If they get a few players back with the week refresh they might do a WB, but I feel GWS would be a better option for a team to get some players back and go on a massive run.

If you watch our previous game, you’d see that we had control over the games for about the first half and a bit.

Difference between then and now
1. Our number one inside mid is back (treloar)
2. No Naitanui
3. JJk underdone
4. No gaff

Before, WC held their own with their best midfielder, best ruck playing, now not only are they no longer in the picture, we also have the + in treloar.

Grundy, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Phillips, Adams probably is even with

Naitanui, gaff, shuey, yeo, redden

But

Grundy, treloar, Sidebottom, Phillips, Adams pendlebury

Will absolutely hammer

Lycett, yeo, shuey, redden, sheed

Goldsack looms as an ideal match up against Darling too...

If we get Treloar, Goldsack, Moore back and it rains it will get ugly for WC, we travel well anyways

If we have none of them and still have Madgen on JJk and Langdon on Darling then WC better hope these fmtwo forwards can carry the entire squad.

 

[mookieb]

If you watch our previous game, you’d see that we had control over the games for about the first half and a bit.

Difference between then and now
1. Our number one inside mid is back (treloar)
2. No Naitanui
3. JJk underdone
4. No gaff

Before, WC held their own with their best midfielder, best ruck playing, now not only are they no longer in the picture, we also have the + in treloar.

Grundy, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Phillips, Adams probably is even with

Naitanui, gaff, shuey, yeo, redden

But

Grundy, treloar, Sidebottom, Phillips, Adams pendlebury

Will absolutely hammer

Lycett, yeo, shuey, redden, sheed

Goldsack looms as an ideal match up against Darling too...

If we get Treloar, Goldsack, Moore back and it rains it will get ugly for WC, we travel well anyways

If we have none of them and still have Madgen on JJk and Langdon on Darling then WC better hope these fmtwo forwards can carry the entire squad.

I looked at the teams and it's interesting because WC should have a massive matchup advantage with Kennedy and Darling if they play on Magden and Langdon, but Coll is well clear in the midfield with far more depth and class. While NonPhixion did make some good comments about Coll having an advantage in the wet, Melb gave a blueprint for how to beat a weakened WC in the dry - simply smash them out of the middle.

However, you also have the fact WC has a massive HGA.

I wouldn't be banking on calling JJK underdone while pushing the case for Goldsack and Treloar to be influential.

I just put a small bet on WC -5.5 earlier but might middle it if leaks out a bit more and then just hit some promo's.

Both teams tailed of towards the end of the season and injuries / suspensions mounted so the teams announcement will be vital although it seems like Treloar isn't likely for this week.

 

[Prochard123]

I looked at the teams and it's interesting because WC should have a massive matchup advantage with Kennedy and Darling if they play on Magden and Langdon, but Coll is well clear in the midfield with far more depth and class. While NonPhixion did make some good comments about Coll having an advantage in the wet, Melb gave a blueprint for how to beat a weakened WC in the dry - simply smash them out of the middle.

However, you also have the fact WC has a massive HGA.

I wouldn't be banking on calling JJK underdone while pushing the case for Goldsack and Treloar to be influential.

I just put a small bet on WC -5.5 earlier but might middle it if leaks out a bit more and then just hit some promo's.

Both teams tailed of towards the end of the season and injuries / suspensions mounted so the teams announcement will be vital although it seems like Treloar isn't likely for this week.

I suspect treloar, Moore, Goldsack all won’t be named this week as it sounds like we are going all out with our second chance.

That’s why I’m staying away from this game, Collingwood full strength will demolish west coast without gaff and Naitanui is what I’m saying.

But Collingwood certainly is not full strength without any of Moore/treloar/Goldsack/dunn/elliot

 

[Sabbathen]

If you watch our previous game, you’d see that we had control over the games for about the first half and a bit.

Difference between then and now
1. Our number one inside mid is back (treloar)
2. No Naitanui
3. JJk underdone
4. No gaff

Before, WC held their own with their best midfielder, best ruck playing, now not only are they no longer in the picture, we also have the + in treloar.

Grundy, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Phillips, Adams probably is even with

Naitanui, gaff, shuey, yeo, redden

But

Grundy, treloar, Sidebottom, Phillips, Adams pendlebury

Will absolutely hammer

Lycett, yeo, shuey, redden, sheed

Goldsack looms as an ideal match up against Darling too...

If we get Treloar, Goldsack, Moore back and it rains it will get ugly for WC, we travel well anyways

If we have none of them and still have Madgen on JJk and Langdon on Darling then WC better hope these fmtwo forwards can carry the entire squad.

You know that was Kennedy’s first game back after missing the previous 4 and Darling’s first after missing the previous 6 right? The under done theory didnt hold much weight then. Naitanui also went down halfway through the second quarter and yet the Eagles kicked clear and owned the second half without him.

 

[mookieb]

I find lines seem much harder come finals so don't have huge leans on most games, but expect Rich with a near full strength squad to accelerate late against the Hawks.

Melb / Geel will be fascinating. Inexperience vs experience, Melb's better on the MCG, both teams gathered a bit of form towards the end of the season. Not sure i'd feel comfortable backing either team.

With both teams having injuries i'd be leaning to WC but keen to see final teams. Line is leaking out close to a bet on Coll if they get some players in.

The game I like the most is Syd / GWS. GWS were in cracking form late before some injuries and a blowout in their final game. They were comfortably controlling Syd until injuries and they should have some serious talent come in with Greene, Williams and a few others. In my view they have clearly the better team, so assuming Davis holds Buddy then +6.5 is good value for a game I expect them to win.

 

[Prochard123]

You know that was Kennedy’s first game back after missing the previous 4 and Darling’s first after missing the previous 6 right? The under done theory didnt hold much weight then. Naitanui also went down halfway through the second quarter and yet the Eagles kicked clear and owned the second half without him.

We lose many second halfs, Nic Nat kept you in the game for the first half. Kennedy was fit when he played

 

[NonPhixion]

I find lines seem much harder come finals so don't have huge leans on most games, but expect Rich with a near full strength squad to accelerate late against the Hawks.

Melb / Geel will be fascinating. Inexperience vs experience, Melb's better on the MCG, both teams gathered a bit of form towards the end of the season. Not sure i'd feel comfortable backing either team.

With both teams having injuries i'd be leaning to WC but keen to see final teams. Line is leaking out close to a bet on Coll if they get some players in.

The game I like the most is Syd / GWS. GWS were in cracking form late before some injuries and a blowout in their final game. They were comfortably controlling Syd until injuries and they should have some serious talent come in with Greene, Williams and a few others. In my view they have clearly the better team, so assuming Davis holds Buddy then +6.5 is good value for a game I expect them to win.

Yeh I completely agree about GWS.

You know that was Kennedy’s first game back after missing the previous 4 and Darling’s first after missing the previous 6 right? The under done theory didnt hold much weight then. Naitanui also went down halfway through the second quarter and yet the Eagles kicked clear and owned the second half without him.

Good point. But its also important to note that Mason Cox didn't play last time around. While on the stat sheet he doesn't appear to have a heavy influence, he is critical to our structure. He always brings the ball to ground. Last time McGovern and Hurn were able to easily intercept everything, taking 23 marks between them. I doubt that happens when Cox is in the contest. Cox also pinch hits in the Ruck to take the Heat off Grundy, which is also probably why Grundy didn't fully capitalise last time when Nic Nat went down.

 

[chrisdon16]

Agree on the GWS consensus.

GWS +5.5 (Pointsbet $1.95)

 

[Sabbathen]

Yeh I completely agree about GWS.

Good point. But its also important to note that Mason Cox didn't play last time around. While on the stat sheet he doesn't appear to have a heavy influence, he is critical to our structure. He always brings the ball to ground. Last time McGovern and Hurn were able to easily intercept everything, taking 23 marks between them. I doubt that happens when Cox is in the contest. Cox also pinch hits in the Ruck to take the Heat off Grundy, which is also probably why Grundy didn't fully capitalise last time when Nic Nat went down.

Ditto Tom Barrass then, he is equally critical to West Coast's structure and was out injured. We can sit here and talk all day about who wasn't playing.
At the end of the day, an away win of 35 points between two top 4 sides is a fairly comprehensive beating.

 

[mookieb]

Yeh I completely agree about GWS.

Good point. But its also important to note that Mason Cox didn't play last time around. While on the stat sheet he doesn't appear to have a heavy influence, he is critical to our structure. He always brings the ball to ground. Last time McGovern and Hurn were able to easily intercept everything, taking 23 marks between them. I doubt that happens when Cox is in the contest. Cox also pinch hits in the Ruck to take the Heat off Grundy, which is also probably why Grundy didn't fully capitalise last time when Nic Nat went down.

Looks like Moore and Reid out of contention but Howe and Treloar likely. Coll will have a definite advantage through the middle and that's even if Treloar doesn't play.

Griffen, Delidio, De Boer, Corr, Taylor and Williams available for GWS. Some good quality in that lot.