Awaiting egg on face but I think it seems rather clear cut - Rich, Gee, WC and GWS.
AFL 2018 - AFL Finals Week 1
- Thread starter balmainforever
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Seems like history says this weekends finals games won't be close. Ave win margins in EF is 34 points and 30 points for QF.
EF's also tend to be very high scoring - if they were considered a "round" scores would be the third highest behind round 1 and 23 (stats taken from The Trend Bettor on twitter).
Makes me think that Rich will win comfortably. I also have a feeling either Melb or Geel will win easily as well (either Melb can't handle the pressure or Melb midfield dominate). Can't decide which. Perhaps also GWS put Syd to the sword?
Melb vs Geel might well be a shootout.
EF's also tend to be very high scoring - if they were considered a "round" scores would be the third highest behind round 1 and 23 (stats taken from The Trend Bettor on twitter).
Makes me think that Rich will win comfortably. I also have a feeling either Melb or Geel will win easily as well (either Melb can't handle the pressure or Melb midfield dominate). Can't decide which. Perhaps also GWS put Syd to the sword?
Melb vs Geel might well be a shootout.
There has only been two years of a bye between finals though.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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Yes and 6 out of 8 matches in that time have been beltings
yeh i got on the dees cats at 168.5 and am pretty confident... if the cats fall behind they tend to revert to the all out risky kicks down the centre which opens up the game greatly... if the dees lose we normally concede big scores especially at MCG.. i guess it could just slide under around 160 if the match is real close all night and goalkicking is bad, but i really doubt it given the fine weather and the free flowing footy both teams generally seem to have played. I think the value is lost though with total at 173.5 but still be leaning overs quite confidently.
EDIT: i finally got promo banned from pointsbet, its like a kick in the guts and a cut into the income/profits when this happens haha.. i was probably silly emailing them about a few bonus bets owed or something i dont know but I had been betting enough other stuff and not solely betting on promo races and afl/nrl but the year or so run I had is over
does anyone have any tips on how to avoid bans i heard its wise not to pull out your winnings too often as you can get flagged as a profitable account??? would once a month withdraw be ok? thanks guys, really need to keep my account at b365 and sportsbet alive!! I will wait a while and set up a bogus pointsbet account on a new phone under my mates name soon but not just yet haha...
EDIT: i finally got promo banned from pointsbet, its like a kick in the guts and a cut into the income/profits when this happens haha.. i was probably silly emailing them about a few bonus bets owed or something i dont know but I had been betting enough other stuff and not solely betting on promo races and afl/nrl but the year or so run I had is over
does anyone have any tips on how to avoid bans i heard its wise not to pull out your winnings too often as you can get flagged as a profitable account??? would once a month withdraw be ok? thanks guys, really need to keep my account at b365 and sportsbet alive!! I will wait a while and set up a bogus pointsbet account on a new phone under my mates name soon but not just yet haha...
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chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Don't touch promos
If you're not even going to bet promos then what does it matter if you get promo banned
SportsBet are paying $20.75 for Richmond H-H and Roughead 3+ goals
Roughy slotted 4 the last time they met and he has always been a big game player so I am on that.
Roughy slotted 4 the last time they met and he has always been a big game player so I am on that.
- Mar 27, 2018
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Anyone else liking the unders tomorrow? Heavy rain forecasted. 154.5 seems pretty high imo
I have a totally unconfirmed theory that it's better to have a lot of horse racing bets on your account as I assume they think you can't beat the margins or you'll end up turning into a degenerate.yeh i got on the dees cats at 168.5 and am pretty confident... if the cats fall behind they tend to revert to the all out risky kicks down the centre which opens up the game greatly... if the dees lose we normally concede big scores especially at MCG.. i guess it could just slide under around 160 if the match is real close all night and goalkicking is bad, but i really doubt it given the fine weather and the free flowing footy both teams generally seem to have played. I think the value is lost though with total at 173.5 but still be leaning overs quite confidently.
EDIT: i finally got promo banned from pointsbet, its like a kick in the guts and a cut into the income/profits when this happens haha.. i was probably silly emailing them about a few bonus bets owed or something i dont know but I had been betting enough other stuff and not solely betting on promo races and afl/nrl but the year or so run I had is over
While some bookies have promo banned or limited me quickly Crownbet, Sportsbet and Bet365 have all given me a good run (SB have promo banned me and CB only promo banned me with the merge). I have done exceptionally well on Bet365 yet alot of time I withdraw they send me $20 in bet credits. My missus had an account that was used sparingly yet they promo banned that account for some unknown reason. I do alot of horse racing on these accounts.
Horse racing is actually quite profitable for me as I rotate my way through all the cash boost, money back and bonus bets back promotions and tail some good tipsters.
I have a new account with Pointsbet but I don't think anyone can do well there and not get promo banned. It's strange - they offer exceptionally generous promo's but if you use these promo's then you can banned pretty quickly.
I have never received a bonus from b365, wouldn't call myself a consistently winning punter with them either.
Such a silly response I was clearly asking how to try and fly under the radar whilst still making some guaranteed cash off promos.
Thx mookie yeh I probably don't do enough normal horse race bets so they could see I was doing the full $50 or $100 on to the money back races..yeh b365 have been great I get the 20 loyalty credits every week and do maybe 50-60 percent of their cash back races but do almost all of my normal bets there too, I think youd have to be winning huge or blatantly only betting the cash back races to be banned, bet 365 has so many customers do they have Australia traders to keep an eye on our accounts?
Hawks brought in 3 talls wow ...gonna be wet...late change I rekn ceglar goes out, I also like $1.78 highest half 2nd..think it'll be cagey as early as Hawks try to keep ball plus the weather seems more ugly late arvo early evening so if it is damp it might be more of a factor early
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- Oct 8, 2009
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They’re a bunch of campaigners. I’ve done no more promo bets than I have at other agencies, won a few but also lost the odd promo bet and they’re threatening me with promo bans.yeh i got on the dees cats at 168.5 and am pretty confident... if the cats fall behind they tend to revert to the all out risky kicks down the centre which opens up the game greatly... if the dees lose we normally concede big scores especially at MCG.. i guess it could just slide under around 160 if the match is real close all night and goalkicking is bad, but i really doubt it given the fine weather and the free flowing footy both teams generally seem to have played. I think the value is lost though with total at 173.5 but still be leaning overs quite confidently.
EDIT: i finally got promo banned from pointsbet, its like a kick in the guts and a cut into the income/profits when this happens haha.. i was probably silly emailing them about a few bonus bets owed or something i dont know but I had been betting enough other stuff and not solely betting on promo races and afl/nrl but the year or so run I had is over
Their normal markets are shithouse so I don’t know what they expect.
Haha what they sent you a warning!!?? What did they say lol that's rare
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Hawthorn +16.5 ($1.95 Pointsbet, Beteasy)
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Wasn't that silly. As soon as you start betting promos they'll keep an eye on you, no chance of flying under the radar.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Looks clear for most of the game
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- Mar 17, 2015
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Ladbrokes promo pretty average. Max $20 Dusty/Mitchell 60+ Touches combined. $3
Silly bet?
Silly bet?
- Banned
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Wouldn't you take the $2 on Richmond over this?
Looking at the Hawks' year can't seem them getting close TBH.
Middle it on Ned’s, who are offering $2 Lines
- Banned
- #100
$2 lines dunno, I was referring to the BetEasy $2 favs promo.
