Prediction 2019 "Hypothetical Trade, FA, random player you wish we could get" thread..

[Pessimistic]

Your A graders are a legitimate stretch mate..

Which group?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I don't think you can say that unless you know how much its worth to have any kind of market at all in NSW/QLD. I suspect the millions they are dumping on expansion clubs is a drop in the ocean compared to the value of the northern states to the TV rights deal.


NRL is also largely serving two states that together have more people than the rest of the states combined. The $'s on the table for the AFL if they can expand further into that market is huge. As you've pointed out they haven't got very far thus far, and as a result they'd see it as a massive growth opportunity.

I'd suggest that had a lot to do with people turning off their TVs when it turned into a massacre. Their low supporter base was probably a small part of the problem. It wasn't great TV viewing no matter which state you lived in, most of the viewers by the end were probably Richmond fans and some masochists.
I don't disagree with that. my point is that the AFL are in for the long haul, and will not be giving up now just as their latest love child is getting close to tasting success.

Its not about 2 out of 18 its about 13 million potential TV viewers. You think the 8 million potential viewers in NSW and the 5 million in QLD collectively add only 10% to the TV rights valuation? I very much doubt that. It certainly wouldn't be the 50%+ their population share would suggest, because of the poor market penetration, but the AFL will keep at it, and I can see why.

The ~$300M that both GWS and Gold Coast will cost the AFL in this time is about 12% of the value of the TV rights deal. This isn't including the ratings hit any game featuring these two teams will endure as well as the gate takings for each interstate game that features them. I don't doubt having 18 teams means more revenue overall for the TV deal - but I guarantee if the AFL had instead brought in another SA and WA franchise instead that you'd be bringing more in with regard to viewers and overall revenue without blowing $50M a year.

And the populations of NSW and Qld wouldn't mean a thing when advertisers and TV networks are aware that the vast majority of them won't be watching. Beijing has a population of ~21M - do you think we should plonk a team there and throw $25M down the drain trying to make it work while grass roots footy in Australia is beyond neglected all because some people might watch the game?

The AFL is ignoring all logic here to try and pants the NRL and it is failing miserably.

 

[RoughysMullet]

Our offseason thus far in a nutshell...
Greenwood : “Hey Gill, I’m leaving Adelaide and want to cash in.
I’d like a massive contract to Gold Coast please - spud Brandon Ellis got one - I’m just as good”
Gill : “Hi Hugh - we have other priorities at the moment - you’re 27 and in and out of the side at Adelaide”
Greenwood : “Hawks have offered me a deal - think I’ll go there. You don’t want that do you Gill?”
Gill :

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Haha they were linked by some random bloke that called up Trade Radio.

 

[MJA33]

Haha they were linked by some random bloke that called up Trade Radio.

Exactly, no insight was just a callers thoughts. Then Dwayne Russell said that if he went there he would be straight away named captain hahaha funniest thing I heard all day.

 

[Braidz]

Pick 2 for Breust and pick 10? Thoughts. Maybe some later round picks added in

 

[Guerrahappyteam]

Lol. It wouldn't be a trade period without a Punky rumour.

 

[Yardie]

Pick 2 for Breust and pick 10? Thoughts. Maybe some later round picks added in

Shiel was worth two first rounders. Drop the pick 10 at a minimum.

 

[kazzooka]

Pick 2 for Breust and pick 10? Thoughts. Maybe some later round picks added in

Nup, bruest for pick 1 and we upgrade our second pick too.

 

[RoughysMullet]

Would do it for Noah

 

[Aramis]

Would do it for Noah

They gave pick 2 for Lachie f***ing Weller....
Breust would demand at least pick 2 plus an upgrade in late 1st round or early 2nd.

I would find it hard to say no to this.... feels like it COULD be a Croad/McPharlin to Fremantle scenario brewing....

In saying that, it wont happen and the club probably wouldn't trade him for that offer. Also, one more thing, pick 1 and 2 are absolutely locked away and staying at the Suns.. the AFL have completely stage-managed Anderson and Rowell to the Suns. Would cause absolute hysterics if they traded one away, thats even IF they are allowed to.

 

[WWSD]

Breust isn’t going anywhere. He’s already turned down offers from Gill Coast Suns and Gill Western Sydney about 20 times.

 

[Rev08]

Club desperately needs another classy small forward. We're not about to trade the one we already have.

 

[HeHateMe]

You dont trade a gun unless it's a 2 for 1.

Hypothetically we'd want more then GC are prepared to offer so it wont happen.

 

[Bugs1977]

Pick 2 for Breust and pick 10? Thoughts. Maybe some later round picks added in

If it was going to happen which I doubt then it wouldn't be for pick 10 and Bruest. It would be Bruest + 2nd rounder. We'd then have to try and trade in another 2nd rounder to secure Finn.

 

[Sixpence]

Pick 2 for Breust and pick 10? Thoughts. Maybe some later round picks added in

 

[col44]

Top 2 picks will not be traded. No point even considering anyone we have because we couldn't satisfy GC.
The GC assistance package was smart and required. GC need every opportunity to be successful. It's been acknowledged they stuffed It at the start this is a take 2. GWS have it right. They trade out good players that want to leave and get well compensated for it, which continues that cycle.
It is super important that club clocks turn in and out of the premiership window. Where the low drawing clubs will find it very hard is through the intro of free agency. While a player gets over market value at smaller clubs and under market at the big clubs, free agency will see it become the EPL. Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, WCE, Adelaide and Geelong, will likely feature in the top half of the ladder for many years to come.

 

[TylerDurden]

Top 2 picks will not be traded. No point even considering anyone we have because we couldn't satisfy GC.
The GC assistance package was smart and required. GC need every opportunity to be successful. It's been acknowledged they stuffed It at the start this is a take 2. GWS have it right. They trade out good players that want to leave and get well compensated for it, which continues that cycle.
It is super important that club clocks turn in and out of the premiership window. Where the low drawing clubs will find it very hard is through the intro of free agency. While a player gets over market value at smaller clubs and under market at the big clubs, free agency will see it become the EPL. Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, WCE, Adelaide and Geelong, will likely feature in the top half of the ladder for many years to come.

Correct. Breust won't be traded and neither will picks 1 or 2. Gil has cast them in iron. 4 year deals each. Bango.

 

[Hawkie_McHawkHawk]

Top 2 picks will not be traded. No point even considering anyone we have because we couldn't satisfy GC.
The GC assistance package was smart and required. GC need every opportunity to be successful. It's been acknowledged they stuffed It at the start this is a take 2. GWS have it right. They trade out good players that want to leave and get well compensated for it, which continues that cycle.
It is super important that club clocks turn in and out of the premiership window. Where the low drawing clubs will find it very hard is through the intro of free agency. While a player gets over market value at smaller clubs and under market at the big clubs, free agency will see it become the EPL. Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, WCE, Adelaide and Geelong, will likely feature in the top half of the ladder for many years to come.

I don’t disagree with anything you said, really. It’s just that I the AFL shouldn’t expect fans of other clubs to give a shit if their $$$ projects are failing or not. On a personal level I feel for the Suns but their soulless corporate existence means I and many others have zero sympathy, and bloody oath I’m going to complain every time the AFL stack the decks to try and force the outcome they want when it’s so crudely and shamelessly for dollars. They are caretakers of this sport as well as a business, people shouldn’t forget that.

 

[eastley]

I agree with the package supplied to GCS, but at same time, has the culture changed to really get the best out of players and so forth? Or are they just going to be players who move else where in a couple of years?

 

[Rev08]

And to think there were people on here advocating for us to tank for Anderson.

Glad there are wiser heads running the club than some on here.

 

[Mojo]

I agree with the package supplied to GCS, but at same time, has the culture changed to really get the best out of players and so forth? Or are they just going to be players who move else where in a couple of years?

Have to get a lot of things right for a successful culture. This package just ticks a few of those boxes.

 

[Aramis]

Have to get a lot of things right for a successful culture. This package just ticks a few of those boxes.

I would argue it does the opposite, it creates a culture that permeates bailouts and handouts... not hard-fought and earnt success, not character inducing hardship.

It's that same culture that Melbourne stank of for years.

Its desperation and no one wants to play for a club thats way more into you than you are into them.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

This thread is going to be insanely interesting reading over the next 3 weeks, let's all just sit back and enjoy the ride.