Prediction 2019 "Hypothetical Trade, FA, random player you wish we could get" thread..

[hk89]

Here it is....

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It could be worse. Essendon second bottom of the draft pick ladder despite being in desperate need of more quality players after another humiliating finals departure (and apparently good odds to lose one of their few elite (if injury prone) players during the trade period.

 

[Platten44]

No what? Like I said, they are taking a long term view. The audience being higher when non-Sydney teams make the final is exactly what they want to fix in the long term, and why they wouldn't necessarily be unhappy with GWS making the GF, despite the short term negative impact on viewer numbers. The best way to build the size of the TV viewing market in NSW and QLD is to have as many successful teams in those states as possible. It has taken generations to build the Vic teams up to the supporter base sizes they have now. Sydney people that are not already interested in football are not going to suddenly become interested in AFL overnight because GWS is in the GF. I'd imagine GWS supporter numbers are up over 5 years ago. I'm sure they'd love to have a high rating GF every year, and they probably wouldn't enjoy GWS getting smashed, but they'd be pretty happy they've finally got one of the two recent expansion teams into a GF , and would probably see the short term impact on viewing numbers as a necessary evil.

More people watched the GF in Sydney when it was Collingwood v Geelong, Hawthorn v Freo/WC and Richmond v Adelaide than they did for Richmond v GWS

 

[Ned Ryerson]

No what? Like I said, they are taking a long term view. The audience being higher when non-Sydney teams make the final is exactly what they want to fix in the long term, and why they wouldn't necessarily be unhappy with GWS making the GF, despite the short term negative impact on viewer numbers. The best way to build the size of the TV viewing market in NSW and QLD is to have as many successful teams in those states as possible. It has taken generations to build the Vic teams up to the supporter base sizes they have now. Sydney people that are not already interested in football are not going to suddenly become interested in AFL overnight because GWS is in the GF. I'd imagine GWS supporter numbers are up over 5 years ago. I'm sure they'd love to have a high rating GF every year, and they probably wouldn't enjoy GWS getting smashed, but they'd be pretty happy they've finally got one of the two recent expansion teams into a GF , and would probably see the short term impact on viewing numbers as a necessary evil.

The Swans have been in Sydney for almost 40 years and can only generate decent interest when they poach a great goal-kicking forward from a Victorian club. This experiment will.not.work. The AFL are throwing resources at something that is doomed to fail because they are pig-headed arrogant campaigners.

 

[Hawk Dork]

The Swans have been in Sydney for almost 40 years and can only generate decent interest when they poach a great goal-kicking forward from a Victorian club. This experiment will.not.work. The AFL are throwing resources at something that is doomed to fail because they are pig-headed arrogant campaigners.

and now with 2 more obvious love child charities they will piss off even more "real" fans as talent gets wasted and diluted and in GillWS' case stockpiled in the NEAFL ready to be traded for even more early picks

 

[sven_inc]

I dont think any of this is really worth getting too upset about tbh.

Pick 1 hurts if only because it guarantees Anderson heads up there. Unless we trade up to get him, him going to GC is probably our best chance to get him later down the track. Almost impossible if he went to the Dees etc.

The other draft picks dont worry me too much. Pick 20ish this year and pick 11 in 2020 would be good for us to target in some way if we are to trade with GC.

The rest I'm fine with as well.

Good luck to them, but I think most people are over reacting. Hopefully having extra picks makes them more likely to trade them away.

 

[matsta1975]

I’m not sure he meets with Clarko if we were “never” a chance.

I met Megan Gale and Rebecca Gibney at different stages did that mean I was actually a chance?

 

[Steven Tyler]

I dont think any of this is really worth getting too upset about tbh.

Pick 1 hurts if only because it guarantees Anderson heads up there. Unless we trade up to get him, him going to GC is probably our best chance to get him later down the track. Almost impossible if he went to the Dees etc.

The other draft picks dont worry me too much. Pick 20ish this year and pick 11 in 2020 would be good for us to target in some way if we are to trade with GC.

The rest I'm fine with as well.

Good luck to them, but I think most people are over reacting. Hopefully having extra picks makes them more likely to trade them away.

Anderson would probably ask for a trade to Richmond if he does leave, seeing as he barracks for them!

 

[Rhayader]

Greenwood heading to the Suns, according to Mitch Cleary (?) and Barrett on Trade Radio

 

[BobDay]

I think this is actually good news for clubs who are smart about trading.... which we are.
Apart from the priority pick all the other picks seem to be aimed at allowing the Sun's to trade in players from other clubs.
In effect it gives the Suns more collateral to trade with. That may open opportunities for us.
Go Hawks

 

[Sixpence]

I met Megan Gale and Rebecca Gibney at different stages did that mean I was actually a chance?

Did you meet with them to discuss a possible relationship? If not, it's not the same thing.

 

[hk89]

The Swans have been in Sydney for almost 40 years and can only generate decent interest when they poach a great goal-kicking forward from a Victorian club. This experiment will.not.work.

2.5 billion dollars in TV rights says the experiment is working, and the AFL are greedy to see how much better it can work if more people in the non-traditional AFL states get on board. How much less do you think the TV rights would be worth if there was actually nobody watching in NSW and QLD? How much more if they start watching in the same numbers the Victorians do? League is almost non-existant outside those states, and more people watched NRL than AFL last year (on TV I mean - going to the grounds is a different story).

 

[hk89]

The Swans have been in Sydney for almost 40 years and can only generate decent interest when they poach a great goal-kicking forward from a Victorian club. This experiment will.not.work.

2.5 billion dollars in TV rights says the experiment is working, and the AFL are greedy to see how much better it can work if more people in the non-traditional AFL states get on board. How much less do you think the TV rights would be worth if there was actually nobody watching in NSW and QLD? How much more if they start watching in the same numbers the Victorians do? League is almost non-existant outside those states, and more people watched NRL than AFL last year (on TV I mean - going to the grounds is a different story).

 

[Blackhawk42]

Big Boy to Geelong.
Kelly to West Coast.
Gaff to Hawthorn.

 

[flinchfree]

Big Boy to Geelong.
Kelly to West Coast.
Gaff to Hawthorn.

That's good.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

2.5 billion dollars in TV rights says the experiment is working, and the AFL are greedy to see how much better it can work if more people in the non-traditional AFL states get on board. How much less do you think the TV rights would be worth if there was actually nobody watching in NSW and QLD? How much more if they start watching in the same numbers the Victorians do? League is almost non-existant outside those states, and more people watched NRL than AFL last year (on TV I mean - going to the grounds is a different story).

Iron Chef repeats used to out-rate the Brisbane Lions games on Saturday nights. The growth of the game in these markets is severely outstripped by the money that is spent.

The TV rights were worth more in an expanded competition because there was an extra game per fortnight. The NRL TV deal is roughly comparable based on a $ per game measure (particularly as NRL is shorter games and less advertising revenue available in them) - all of this without the NRL having teams in SA or WA.

Being that GWS delivered the lowest rating grand final nationally in almost 2 decades - I would suggest that the experiment is failing massively. The only meaningful national coverage that GWS got was due to memes - outside of that nobody outside a couple of thousand of people in western Sydney actually gave a ****. Expansion was utterly botched by the AFL. The same pig-headed AFL that said Tassie wasn't feasible because of commercial reasons - while the AFL dumps $50M a year on expansion teams who a couple of thousand of people actually care about.

Expansion into NRL territories was a futile attempt to win fans in NRL regions where AFL will always play third fiddle to rugby codes and soccer. If the Swans have barely made it work in 40 years in Sydney - why on earth did the AFL think it was going to work in markets far more unkind to the code?

And for the amount differential in the TV rights deal on 16 teams vs 18 teams - I guarantee you it is negated entirely by the cost of the two franchises over the life of the deal - so this is an absolute zero sum game.

 

[hk89]

More people watched the GF in Sydney when it was Collingwood v Geelong, Hawthorn v Freo/WC and Richmond v Adelaide than they did for Richmond v GWS

Yes. That's my point. Its an underdeveloped market, and a lot of those watching in Sydney are probably ex-pats from football states. The AFL is very keen to develop it further in NSW/QLD , because its a massive TV viewing market that they don't have an awfully large share of (more people watch NRL on TV than AFL at a national level). They'll see GWS in the GF as a good thing, despite the negative impact that had on GF ratings this year.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Yes. That's my point. Its an underdeveloped market, and a lot of those watching in Sydney are probably ex-pats from football states. The AFL is very keen to develop it further in NSW/QLD , because its a massive TV viewing market that they don't have an awfully large share of (more people watch NRL on TV than AFL at a national level). They'll see GWS in the GF as a good thing, despite the negative impact that had on GF ratings this year.

This is why none of them are working in the private sector because this kind of stupidity would see them sacked.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Every president needs to stand up to this rubbish and call it out. We need Eddie and Kennett to lead the charge.

 

[tige19]

Cam Ellis Yoleman signing a 4 year deal at the Lions, they are already elite in contested footy, they are about to get a whole lot better... I am not sure why we never had a crack at CEY, he is a decent stoppage player and a very good support for your starting mids, would be a massive upgrade on Howe/Cousins as the support acts.

 

[TylerDurden]

Cam Ellis Yoleman signing a 4 year deal at the Lions, they are already elite in contested footy, they are about to get a whole lot better... I am not sure why we never had a crack at CEY, he is a decent stoppage player and a very good support for your starting mids, would be a massive upgrade on Howe/Cousins as the support acts.

Couldn't get a game in that Crows side. Not sold.

 

[hk89]

Iron Chef repeats used to out-rate the Brisbane Lions games on Saturday nights. The growth of the game in these markets is severely outstripped by the money that is spent.

I don't think you can say that unless you know how much its worth to have any kind of market at all in NSW/QLD. I suspect the millions they are dumping on expansion clubs is a drop in the ocean compared to the value of the northern states to the TV rights deal.

The TV rights were worth more in an expanded competition because there was an extra game per fortnight. The NRL TV deal is roughly comparable based on a $ per game measure (particularly as NRL is shorter games and less advertising revenue available in them) - all of this without the NRL having teams in SA or WA.

NRL is also largely serving two states that together have more people than the rest of the states combined. The $'s on the table for the AFL if they can expand further into that market is huge. As you've pointed out they haven't got very far thus far, and as a result they'd see it as a massive growth opportunity.

Being that GWS delivered the lowest rating grand final nationally in almost 2 decades - I would suggest that the experiment is failing massively.

I'd suggest that had a lot to do with people turning off their TVs when it turned into a massacre. Their low supporter base was probably a small part of the problem. It wasn't great TV viewing no matter which state you lived in, most of the viewers by the end were probably Richmond fans and some masochists.

The only meaningful national coverage that GWS got was due to memes - outside of that nobody outside a couple of thousand of people in western Sydney actually gave a fu**. Expansion was utterly botched by the AFL.

I don't disagree with that. my point is that the AFL are in for the long haul, and will not be giving up now just as their latest love child is getting close to tasting success.

Expansion into NRL territories was a futile attempt to win fans in NRL regions where AFL will always play third fiddle to rugby codes and soccer. If the Swans have barely made it work in 40 years in Sydney - why on earth did the AFL think it was going to work in markets far more unkind to the code?

And for the amount differential in the TV rights deal on 16 teams vs 18 teams - I guarantee you it is negated entirely by the cost of the two franchises over the life of the deal - so this is an absolute zero sum game.

Its not about 2 out of 18 its about 13 million potential TV viewers. You think the 8 million potential viewers in NSW and the 5 million in QLD collectively add only 10% to the TV rights valuation? I very much doubt that. It certainly wouldn't be the 50%+ their population share would suggest, because of the poor market penetration, but the AFL will keep at it, and I can see why.

 

[hk89]

This is why none of them are working in the private sector because this kind of stupidity would see them sacked.

The private sector can rarely afford to take a 50-100 year view on their undertakings. When you're an evil dictatorship, you can more easily afford to take a long view, because you don't lose your job when the short term looks ugly (as it did on the weekend).

 

[Platten44]

Cam Ellis Yoleman signing a 4 year deal at the Lions, they are already elite in contested footy, they are about to get a whole lot better... I am not sure why we never had a crack at CEY, he is a decent stoppage player and a very good support for your starting mids, would be a massive upgrade on Howe/Cousins as the support acts.

He played 39 games in 8 years - think about that..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
You don't need to be good at maths to work that one out!

 

[Steven Tyler]

Cam Ellis Yoleman signing a 4 year deal at the Lions, they are already elite in contested footy, they are about to get a whole lot better... I am not sure why we never had a crack at CEY, he is a decent stoppage player and a very good support for your starting mids, would be a massive upgrade on Howe/Cousins as the support acts.

You are massively overrating him

There is a reason he was on the rookie list at the all conquering Crows

 

[Nastyfish]

Couldn't get a game in that Crows side. Not sold.

Poor disposal, looks out of control half the time.