Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[SilentHunter_]

I don't see any reason we cant and shouldn't win a flag next year

You do realise Longmire is still our head coach right?

 

[The Gong]

FB : Smith - Melican - Rampe
HB : McVeigh - Aliir - Lloyd
C: Jones - Parker - Florent
HF: Heeney - Franklin - Menzel
FF: Papley - Reid - Ronke
Fol: Sinclair - Kennedy - Mills

IC: Hewett - Clarke - Dawson - Hayward

That's my best crack at it at the moment. It's actually getting hard to leave some players out so we can't be that bad off. O'Riordan and Thurlow could either get a run down back as McVeigh or Smith wind down. Hewett and Clarke to rotate through the mids. Dawson to play wing or high half forward off the bench and Hayward to rotate through the forwards.

 

[TheMase]

FB : Smith - Melican - Rampe
HB : McVeigh - Aliir - Lloyd
C: Jones - Parker - Florent
HF: Heeney - Franklin - Menzel
FF: Papley - Reid - Ronke
Fol: Sinclair - Kennedy - Mills

IC: Hewett - Clarke - Dawson - Hayward

That's my best crack at it at the moment. It's actually getting hard to leave some players out so we can't be that bad off. O'Riordan and Thurlow could either get a run down back as McVeigh or Smith wind down. Hewett and Clarke to rotate through the mids. Dawson to play wing or high half forward off the bench and Hayward to rotate through the forwards.

Who would you have relieving Sinclair in the ruck? Looking at the lineup it would have to be Reid (which I am ok with if his body can handle it, he is tall enough and has a long enough reach to counter the new ruck rules - see below).

With the ruck rule changes re grabbing the ball in the ruck not constituting prior opportunity it will likely see an end to the undersized ‘make a contest’ ruckman (like Towers). They will become exposed as their taller opponent can just grab the ball with their significant height and size advantage and offload to their mids.

 

[The Gong]

Who would you have relieving Sinclair in the ruck? Looking at the lineup it would have to be Reid (which I am ok with if his body can handle it, he is tall enough and has a long enough reach to counter the new ruck rules - see below).

With the ruck rule changes re grabbing the ball in the ruck not constituting prior opportunity it will likely see an end to the undersized ‘make a contest’ ruckman (like Towers). They will become exposed as their taller opponent can just grab the ball with their significant height and size advantage and offload to their mids.

I was indeed thinking Reid. I mentioned in another post that they may revert back to a two ruck line-up but I was waiting to see what commentary came from the coaches on that one. I still think mobility is the overarching trend which is why I went Sinclair over Naismith and why I don't think they'll want too many talls in the side to go two dedicated ruckmen. If it does go that way then I'd probably bring Naismith in for an unlucky Dawson and you'd have the resting ruckman at FF while Reid is on the bench. Naismith is the better tap ruckman but Sinclair was competitive enough and offered so much more around the ground.

 

[caesar88]

Assuming Menzel is selected in the 22 until he gives a reason to not be... I can't see how Menzel can fit in a forward line with all three of our young smaller Swans in Hayward, Papley and Ronke. Only way is if all of Buddy, Reid and Sinclair aren't playing but as if they wouldn't be? (Though Reid could realistically be injured.)

 

[RobbieK]

Assuming Menzel is selected in the 22 until he gives a reason to not be... I can't see how Menzel can fit in a forward line with all three of our young smaller Swans in Hayward, Papley and Ronke. Only way is if all of Buddy, Reid and Sinclair aren't playing but as if they wouldn't be? (Though Reid could realistically be injured.)

He can fit in a forward line with them if you factor in Papley, Ronke and Hayward spending time rotating through the midfield group too.

I expect our forward line to function a fair bit differently in 2019. Naismith coming in to the team will release Sinclair to spend more time forward where he poses as a strong marking option. I suspect we will start to see Buddy slow down a bit and spend more time in the forward line, assisted by Reid coming in to the team to do more of the link up work on the wing that Buddy was having to do himself. Menzel creates another smart marking target deep in the forward 50. The tall marking options open up better opportunities for Papley and Ronke to do their best work crumbing the packs. With opposition defences stretched more by the increased marking options in our forward line it probably frees up Hayward to have more of an impact against a lesser/smaller defender too.

Just need to sort out getting our hands on the ball first out of the centre (through Naismith's tap work and Heeney, Mills, Jones and hopefully Clarke and Dawson all stepping up to take on more midfield responsibility alongside the established Kennedy and Parker) and continue to run a tight and miserly defence, where we have good options for both talls (Aliir, Melican and Grundy) and mediums/smalls (Rampe, Smith, McVeigh, Lloyd, O'Riordan).

I've already named more than 22 players and haven't mentioned the likes of Hewett, Cunningham, Florent, McCartin, Jack, Thurlow... I really feel like there is a lot to like about this list and it's potential for performance in 2019, but also continued improvement in to the 2020s. We will lose a few players over the next few years but it feels like other than Buddy and Kennedy the replacements for them are already in the squad and are already contributing.

 

[Tedeski]

He can fit in a forward line with them if you factor in Papley, Ronke and Hayward spending time rotating through the midfield group too.

I expect our forward line to function a fair bit differently in 2019. Naismith coming in to the team will release Sinclair to spend more time forward where he poses as a strong marking option. I suspect we will start to see Buddy slow down a bit and spend more time in the forward line, assisted by Reid coming in to the team to do more of the link up work on the wing that Buddy was having to do himself. Menzel creates another smart marking target deep in the forward 50. The tall marking options open up better opportunities for Papley and Ronke to do their best work crumbing the packs. With opposition defences stretched more by the increased marking options in our forward line it probably frees up Hayward to have more of an impact against a lesser/smaller defender too.

Just need to sort out getting our hands on the ball first out of the centre (through Naismith's tap work and Heeney, Mills, Jones and hopefully Clarke and Dawson all stepping up to take on more midfield responsibility alongside the established Kennedy and Parker) and continue to run a tight and miserly defence, where we have good options for both talls (Aliir, Melican and Grundy) and mediums/smalls (Rampe, Smith, McVeigh, Lloyd, O'Riordan).

I've already named more than 22 players and haven't mentioned the likes of Hewett, Cunningham, Florent, McCartin, Jack, Thurlow... I really feel like there is a lot to like about this list and it's potential for performance in 2019, but also continued improvement in to the 2020s. We will lose a few players over the next few years but it feels like other than Buddy and Kennedy the replacements for them are already in the squad and are already contributing.

Good post Robbie.
What this also creates is depth in our list. We have been very thin of late so once again we will have a real battle for spots.

 

[Caj]

From a bloke who had a number of opportunities to put it on the line when his side was a chance and didn't.

There's a reason some of these blokes are commentating and not coaching.

Doesn't mean he's wrong though

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Doesn't mean he's wrong though

No. That's correct. It doesn't. But the fact that Jeffers posted the article in 2 threads without accompanying comment warrants the rebuttal that Dal Santo is no doyen when it comes to winning premierships.

Addressing the opinion piece itself, it's merely another collection of analysis free and evidence free cliches with no insight as to how those cliches lead to his conclusion.

 

[BloodySwan]

Doesn't mean he's wrong though

He's not wrong but Dal Santo has never been a part of a successful team

 

[Caj]

No. That's correct. It doesn't. But the fact that Jeffers posted the article in 2 threads without accompanying comment warrants the rebuttal that Dal Santo is no doyen when it comes to winning premierships.

Addressing the opinion piece itself, it's merely another collection of analysis free and evidence free cliches with no insight as to how those cliches lead to his conclusion.

Its also what many other expert commentators have said about the Swans in 2018, along with half of the posters on this board

 

[The Gong]

He's not wrong but Dal Santo has never been a part of a successful team

Excuse my french but he got within a bee's dick of being a premiership player in what was a very good squad.

It's not just Dal Santo that's saying it any way. It's right across the footy media and they're probably right. Horse and the rest of the club have acknowledged we need more run through the middle and to kick more goals. They've also acknowledged the inexperience in our squad which has been conveniently ignored by the footy media. I'm expecting a more attacking brand of footy next year and would be disappointed if we don't get it considering the commentary coming from the club. I'm not expecting Horse to do a 180 on his defense first philosophy but I would expect a bigger focus on the fundamentals of getting the ball through the midfield quickly and giving our forwards a chance.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Its also what many other expert commentators have said about the Swans in 2018, along with half of the posters on this board

I don't dispute that there are many commentators in the media, and commenters on this board, who have expressed analysis free and evidence free cliches regarding the Swans performances and chances of winning a flag into the future, just as they have in the past, most notably in 2005.

The truth is, if the Swans kick a higher score in most games than their opposition we'll make finals. If we can continue to do that, we'll make the Grand Final. If we do it in the Grand Final, we'll win.

There are many factors that come into our chances of achieving this. I very much doubt that "dash and dare" in and of themselves, will be the determining factors from 2018 to 2019.

 

[BloodySwan]

Excuse my french but he got within a bee's dick of being a premiership player in what was a very good squad.

It's not just Dal Santo that's saying it any way. It's right across the footy media and they're probably right. Horse and the rest of the club have acknowledged we need more run through the middle and to kick more goals. They've also acknowledged the inexperience in our squad which has been conveniently ignored by the footy media. I'm expecting a more attacking brand of footy next year and would be disappointed if we don't get it considering the commentary coming from the club. I'm not expecting Horse to do a 180 on his defense first philosophy but I would expect a bigger focus on the fundamentals of getting the ball through the midfield quickly and giving our forwards a chance.

Longmire was FF but injured when the Kanga's won in 96, he played in their 99 premiership, he was assistant coach to the Swans in 05 & 06 and has coached us to 3 Grand Finals with 1 flag. Horse has been a part of many successful teams. I don't disagree with many of the comments coming out and I believe we will improve next year but I trust Horse to know how teams win Premierships. He's shown a number of times he can be a part of success

 

[The Gong]

Longmire was FF but injured when the Kanga's won in 96, he played in their 99 premiership, he was assistant coach to the Swans in 05 & 06 and has coached us to 3 Grand Finals with 1 flag. Horse has been a part of many successful teams. I don't disagree with many of the comments coming out and I believe we will improve next year but I trust Horse to know how teams win Premierships. He's shown a number of times he can be a part of success

All which I fully agree with. I'm in the Pro-Longmire camp and have written many posts on here defending him from the constant barrage of negativity.

 

[Tedeski]

For those of you that are fretting & getting spooked by what the general media is saying, have a read of this article by Paul Roos in April 2011. I remember it well from around the time we were copping it as a team, for similar reasons after Barry Hall moved on. For me, I've heard & read this all before regarding our game plan but our fundamentals as a club haven't changed, or as Harley said, every team has their own DNA.
I know many won't buy it so just ignore it & save yourself some energy responding but for those that feel as I do & remember the same stuff being regurgitated now as it was back when Vlad said our game plan wouldn't win a p'ship, prior to our 2005 P'ship, then it is a good read.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...6027acd34?sv=fc8d7e7daa56d27a8fe852444513f3f8

I think we are going to win the 2019 premiership folks.
Edit.
I meant to add this extract that I like.
"You have an obligation to all your key stakeholders to put in place a game plan that will win a premiership. If you have players who can't implement it, then they need to be replaced, even if it takes time."

 

[swansfan51]

Good post Robbie.
What this also creates is depth in our list. We have been very thin of late so once again we will have a real battle for spots.

Out: Hannebery, Rohan, Newman, Robinson, Towers, Marsh
In: Menzel, Thurlow, Clarke, draftees

Doesn't that leave us in a very similar position for depth?

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Out: Hannebery, Rohan, Newman, Robinson, Towers, Marsh
In: Menzel, Thurlow, Clarke, draftees

Doesn't that leave us in a very similar position for depth?

You forgot Foote and AJ. Still, of the outs only Hanners (just) was best 22. Newman would be an emergency.

The others provided limited depth.

 

[Caj]

I don't dispute that there are many commentators in the media, and commenters on this board, who have expressed analysis free and evidence free cliches regarding the Swans performances and chances of winning a flag into the future, just as they have in the past, most notably in 2005.

The truth is, if the Swans kick a higher score in most games than their opposition we'll make finals. If we can continue to do that, we'll make the Grand Final. If we do it in the Grand Final, we'll win.

There are many factors that come into our chances of achieving this. I very much doubt that "dash and dare" in and of themselves, will be the determining factors from 2018 to 2019.

That's all well and good Bruce, but as they say in investment disclaimers, "past performance is not an indicator of future prospects". Just because we've been written off in the past and succeeded, doesn't mean it will happen again. We've also been written off in the past, and have failed dismally

For whatever reason (and injuries is the excuse most commonly thrown up), we played the style of football in 2018 that led to Malthouse being labelled past it and getting sacked from Carlton 5 years earlier. It was clear from early in the season that we were not going to win a premiership playing that brand of football, and it resulted in our most humiliating defeat in the last 15 years.

I haven't heard anybody suggest that all out attack is the way to go, my view (and the feeling I get from most on here) is that the balance towards defence is wrong and that we need to attack more directly rather than hug the boundary, giving our forwards no hope as they are outnumbered by the time the ball gets there.

I don't think it takes a genius to see that, and I don't get why Nick Dal Santo is being bagged for calling out what he sees. David King and Dermott Brereton are multiple premiership players and have said exactly the same thing (waits for the "but they're just morons" calls).

 

[Caj]

I meant to add this extract that I like.
"You have an obligation to all your key stakeholders to put in place a game plan that will win a premiership. If you have players who can't implement it, then they need to be replaced, even if it takes time."

Or you can do what Al Clarkson does and adapt your game plan that best suits the strengths of the squad at your disposal.

How he got that list in to a top 4 spot this season was remarkable

 

[Tedeski]

Out: Hannebery, Rohan, Newman, Robinson, Towers, Marsh
In: Menzel, Thurlow, Clarke, draftees

Doesn't that leave us in a very similar position for depth?

Depth quality up forward will improve IMO.

 

[Tedeski]

Or you can do what Al Clarkson does and adapt your game plan that best suits the strengths of the squad at your disposal.

How he got that list in to a top 4 spot this season was remarkable

Out in straight sets twice in the last 3 years.
Lost their last 4 finals, all at the MCG in fact.

They still have their main players there & added the great Tom Mitchell & JOM. What do you see wrong with his list? No one wants to leave them & every one wants to go to them. Doesn't that make list management a little easier when you get the pick of the crop?

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

It would seem a number of us no longer see KJ as best 22. Interested to hear the alternative case.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Out in straight sets twice in the last 3 years.
Lost their last 4 finals, all at the MCG in fact.

They still have their main players there & added the great Tom Mitchell & JOM. What do you see wrong with his list? No one wants to leave them & every one wants to go to them. Doesn't that make list management a little easier when you get the pick of the crop?

Dawks had a soft draw in 2018. Still they made the eight in a good year for them. Snarko's coffee habits may have helped.

 

[Tedeski]

It would seem a number of us no longer see KJ as best 22. Interested to hear the alternative case.

It will be healthy for our team that he has to fight for a spot. I still think he was one of our better players in the back end of the year. He is definitely a role player for the coaches & no doubt they rate that above all else.