Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[The King!]

I just found a stat that essentially defines why we are not a top side. Admittedly it isn't an obscure stat, but it does show the problem and that is inside 50's in relation to our opposition

1. Melbourne (12.3)
2. Richmond (10.2)
3. Hawthorn (6.7)
4. Collingwood (4.5)
5. West Coast (2.3)
6. Essendon (1.6)
7. Geelong (1.2)
8. Port Adelaide (0.8)
9. GWS (0.8)
10. Adelaide (0.5)
11. North Melbourne (-0.5)
12. Western Bulldogs (-1.9)
13. St Kilda (-2.1)
14. Brisbane (-4.2)
15. Sydney (-5.7)
16. Fremantle (-6.8)
17. Carlton (-10.2)
18. Gold Coast (-13.8)

We are the only team in the top 8 in 2018 that was in the red when it came to inside 50's. It is clearly such an important stat and a stat where we are stuck with some of the worst teams in the competition.

fortunately we have one of the best players in the game, he can add 2-3 wins with his brilliance

 

[caesar88]

I reckon Buddy will benefit massively from the new hands in the back interpretation just quietly...

That means we can go to him even more then! Something to look forward to

 

[swansfan51]

Good points.

What are some reasonable targets for forwards not named Buddy?

Reid - 1.25 goals per game
HayCart - 1.75 gpg
Ronke - 1.5 gpg
Papley - 1.5 gpg

We'd want 2.0 gpg from Menzel if recruited.

Only 39 players in the entire league went at 1.5 goals per game in 2018. Having Franklin and 1 other would be an improvement

 

[RUNVS]

Only 39 players in the entire league went at 1.5 goals per game in 2018. Having Franklin and 1 other would be an improvement

The annoying thing is I think Hayward can do it, I think he is a marking sort of small/medium forward, but Longmire refuses to play him as a proper forward, instead trying to inject him into the midfield. I don't doubt though that if given the chance Hayward can be a 35+ goal a year forward.

 

[RUNVS]

Also randomly did we ever find out what was exactly wrong with Buddy for most of 2018, and if he had surgery after the season in order to get it repaired?

 

[RobbieK]

The annoying thing is I think Hayward can do it, I think he is a marking sort of small/medium forward, but Longmire refuses to play him as a proper forward, instead trying to inject him into the midfield. I don't doubt though that if given the chance Hayward can be a 35+ goal a year forward.

Is this actually true? Or is it that Hayward is a young player who is still building their tank for AFL football and can go missing at times as a result of inexperience and fitness? And that at times we weren't generating a lot of inside 50s this year and so there was a limit to the opportunities he had?

No, no, it must be that Longmire is conaciously and willfully refusing to play him as a forward... Apart from the fact that that was where he played basically all season.

 

[RUNVS]

Is this actually true? Or is it that Hayward is a young player who is still building their tank for AFL football and can go missing at times as a result of inexperience and fitness? And that at times we weren't generating a lot of inside 50s this year and so there was a limit to the opportunities he had?

No, no, it must be that Longmire is conaciously and willfully refusing to play him as a forward... Apart from the fact that that was where he played basically all season.

Hayward seemed to be spending a lot of time in the midfield in 2018. I remember often thinking "what the hell are you doing there" a lot when he touched the ball somewhere in the middle of the ground.

 

[RobbieK]

Hayward seemed to be spending a lot of time in the midfield in 2018. I remember often thinking "what the hell are you doing there" a lot when he touched the ball somewhere in the middle of the ground.

I would like to see his heat map and possession maps if someone had access to them?

But the reality is that there aren't any small forwards who spend all of their time inside 50 in 2018. Teams have structures that bring midfielders into defence and forwards in to the midfield when on defence and then shift to push midfielders forward and defenders in to midfield when transitioning forwards. There are times when only one or two players from a team are inside attacking 50. That doesn't mean that only two players are being played as forwards, it means that the other forwards have moved up the ground to help with the transition.

I would expect a half forward like Hayward to be picking up at least as many possessions if not more on the wing or outside of the 50 as they do inside 50.

 

[RUNVS]

I would like to see his heat map and possession maps if someone had access to them?

But the reality is that there aren't any small forwards who spend all of their time inside 50 in 2018. Teams have structures that bring midfielders into defence and forwards in to the midfield when on defence and then shift to push midfielders forward and defenders in to midfield when transitioning forwards. There are times when only one or two players from a team are inside attacking 50. That doesn't mean that only two players are being played as forwards, it means that the other forwards have moved up the ground to help with the transition.

I would expect a half forward like Hayward to be picking up at least as many possessions if not more on the wing or outside of the 50 as they do inside 50.

Oh I agree that no small forward spends all their time in the forward 50 but Hayward's goal kicking stats went down slightly in 2018 compared to 2017 but his disposal count went up about 4 disposals, indicating he was spending more time up the ground than he did in 2017.

 

[RobbieK]

Oh I agree that no small forward spends all their time in the forward 50 but Hayward's goal kicking stats went down slightly in 2018 compared to 2017 but his disposal count went up about 4 disposals, indicating he was spending more time up the ground than he did in 2017.

Without the stats on where the possessions actually we're I don't know if you can make that assumption.

Hayward played 6 more games in 2018 and scored 6 more goals than he did in 2017... Which is not really going down, it is about what you would expect for a player who averages just over a goal a game. On such a small sample size I don't think you can say that his output as a goal kicker dropped in any sort of meaningful way, let alone that it happened due to intentional coaching decisions.

 

[MartinLifts130]

Hey guys so from what I've seen Heeney has been playing a decent bit of his 2018 season up forward, do you guys expect him to get more midfield time next year?

 

[RobbieK]

Hey guys so from what I've seen Heeney has been playing a decent bit of his 2018 season up forward, do you guys expect him to get more midfield time next year?

I think we all hope so, same for Mills.

 

[bungee]

Hey guys so from what I've seen Heeney has been playing a decent bit of his 2018 season up forward, do you guys expect him to get more midfield time next year?

That's Horse's fault. Horse will always play him where he can do least damage. That's his way. Heeney will start as sub this year

 

[bungee]

Some very interesting stats there:
I wonder what the Jones critics thinks of his efficiency which is pretty good.
I thought that O'Riordan might be better but I suppose it would be a small sample size for him.
No surprises with Jack, Kennedy and Hannebery.

I'm a Jones critic and I think his disposal efficiency is just fine. It's his decision making that he needs to improve. Gets caught with it too often and can be too predictable. Needs to improve his vision and awareness. Maybe get a nice side step into his game. Watch Jack take off. He always shuffles a quick side step or two to i) shake pursuers and ii) give better vision of his surroundings. Jones will be a great player. I only criticise him because he can be frustrating but he will improve.

 

[bungee]

I felt like we were pretty diabolical really, the only reason I never panicked this season is because I was clinging to some kind of hope that we’d get better as the year went on (we didn’t.)

We won enough games to make the eight, but that’s because we more than any other club in the comp seem to have this inherent Alexa inside the players heads that tells them there is no hole too great to climb out of. That’s one thing Horse has been great at, is instilling that belief into our players. Because over the last two years in particular we have won so many games we had no right winning.

I also have a clear view of the bigger picture, which is that this is simply not our time. We had our time, arguably squandered it, and now we need to get to work on our next opportunity. 2020 onwards....

We won a premiership under Horse that we had no right to win. Those wins are the best kind. Before Horse I know but Nick Davis coming to save us in the most completely no-right-to-win game ever was perhaps the best win I ever saw (outside of 2005 GF) because all hope had gone for the night (along with half the Swans fans). It was just un-fracking-believeable. I ended up in a huge bear hug dancing in glee with the couple next to me. The joy in that crowd was wild abandon, amplified all the more by the pure despair of our opposition who'd just lost the unloseable. We'd been complete shit all night but we won. It doesn't get any better than that. Ask anyone which was the better feeling, that game against Geelong or the 110 point thrashing some years later. Belief isn't a poor substitute for effort or talent. Belief is everything.

 

[bungee]

I would just like for once to have isolation for our forwards. Watching the grand final this year was depressing, seeing how often it was just a contest between one forward and one defender, and the open goal was there. Just an abundance of time and space for the Stephenson and Liam Ryan types to look spectacular. We just don’t have that and never really have. Our forward line only has two modes: vacant, and congested.

The midfielders are Buddy-centric. Horse has never been able to break this cycle. They just bomb it in the air with the reassurance that having a GOAT on the receiving end will somehow make it work, even if he has two opponents on him. That reliance on Buddy then spreads throughout the entire forward group. The smalls don’t lead to create better targets because it will never come in low and hard to them. And when they do get an opportunity, a lot of the time it’s ‘where’s Bud for the giveaway handpass?’

It’s rampant in our side. This is why I actually get kind of excited when Bud’s not playing (for the team, not for Buddy himself). Because we’ll never have a functioning forward line as long as it’s “Buddy featuring..” How can we expect these young guns in our forward line, all capable of tearing a game apart, to grow and accept a greater responsibility within a game if the message basically being sold to them from within is that they basically need to get out of the GOAT’s way??

So the entire forward structure revolves around Buddy. If he drifts up the ground, the rest are sucked up as though they have to leave the forward 50 open for Buddy to do what he does best. And when Buddy is stationed inside 50, there’s no space because no one else is leading and breaking away from the pack that inevitably forms around Buddy.

It’s maddening for the other forwards, and it would definitely be maddening for Buddy himself. I just feel these forwards are so super talented, they really all could be anything, but they’re being coached wrong. They’ve entered into this toxic superstar cult of a forward line that almost seems to be encouraged from the coaching staff. Horse & co can say it’s not just about Buddy, but everything we do on a weekly basis with Buddy tells me they have basically accepted Buddy is not just a cog in the machine (as he was in 2013) but he is the machine. Everyone around him either needs to get on board or flounder.

I know someone will respond to this with some kind of stat or counter-theory to suggest that I’m wrong about this, but I can’t be wrong. This is my opinion based off what my eyes have seen going back to round 1, 2014. Believed it ever since, only now we’re in a new generation of Swans. That means a new crop of young midfielders and young forwards who are being lured into being a supporting cast for their champion forward, like we’re back in the 80s or something.

This is completely wrong. How can you say our forward line didn't function in 2014 ? We dominated the H&A. It wasn't our forward structure that let us down in the GF. Similarly in 2016. We made the GF and would have won it but for a bit of bad luck with feet getting tangled and the AFL's umpiring. 2015 was an injury year. 2017 was very strong after our ridiculous 0-6 start.

This year we had one young kid and no other tall with Buddy, who himself was injured but still a huge presence. Is it any wonder players look for Buddy ? Imagine this. You have only one player left who is going to kick a bag (not relying on Ronke). Is it any wonder players looked for Buddy ? Wait until it's Buddy, Reid, Sinclair and MCartin keeping the opposition defenders manning up one on one , our smaller forwards feasting on the crumbs of aerial contests and guys like Hayward and Parker leading into the spaces. Buddy is a superstar but he's not toxic. He carried our forward line because he had to. No Tippet, Reid or Naismith.

 

[bungee]

The trick is to copy and paste from one that someone else has done (checking that no one pointed out any misses in subsequent post) and then cut and paste from that. If there any players left from the original paste then you forgotten him .

footywire sydney swans player list

 

[bungee]

A few more thoughts taking another look at the team heading into 2019

Forward line

Despite our issues with scoring I think we had a decent mix up forward with Buddy and McCartin along with Papley, Ronke and Hayward as the smart speedy smalls accompanying them. The only thing I'd like to see change next year is for Reid to return and stay deep to help us maintain a forward structure. McCartin should be a third tall leading up as he's still too raw to be taking the opposition's second defender each week. However, that is dependent on Reid actually being fit which is a long shot these days.

With Parker and Heeney rotating through there throughout games, I see our forward line being quite effective and dangerous if they actually stay in the forward half of the ground.

Ruck

Nothing much changes in terms of the ruck arrangement, Sinclair is clearly number 1 and has shown himself to have the durability to go the entire season. Naismith is the second choice and a better tap ruck but he needs to show himself to be dominant in that aspect or improve him marking ability to challenge Sinclair.

Midfield

This was the root of all our problems in 2018. The midfield was very inconsistent and the weakest its been in a number of years. We spent a lot of games being henned in our backline because the midfield were beaten, forcing the forwards to come up the ground to hunt the ball and end up leaving us with no structure. We got rid of Hanners and Robinson over the off season and brought in Clarke which isn't a significant immediate upgrade. Our depth in terms of inside midfielders is quite ordinary in my view with Kennedy getting a year older and Jack being on his last legs and spending less time in the middle in recent seasons. Most of our draft points will be spent on getting Blakey so this year we won't be expecting too much elite midfield talent coming to us through the draft.

The only we're going to improve is if there's a significant jump in the output of one of our young mids; Heeney being the obvious candidate, Hewett could be pleasant surprise as well. Mills and Dawson coming into the middle and having a big impact is another possibility. Lloyd come up the ground onto the wing to give us a bit more run and drive going forward like Hanners use to do for us. If we do manage to win our fair share on the inside we have enough speed and skill to win more games than we lose.

However at this moment my expectation is that the midfield will perform similarly to this year and we'd spend more time than not in defence.

Defence

A miserly back 6/7 has long been our trademark, our defenders are very good at shutting down their own opponents but that only takes you so far in games. When it comes to transitioning from defence we sucked this year. Coupled with inconsistent midfield performances and low scores are no surprise. There hasn't been great improvements in the midfield over the offseason so our transition is going to need to improve in order to get a better result next year.

One way to rectify that in 2019 I see is freeing up is moving Rampe to a third tall role and freeing him up to get more rebounds with his penetrating kick ala 2016, however that would require us to trust Aliir on a opposition key forward and he tends to play a bit loose. Jones, O'Riordan, Stoddart and Thurlow all have a bit of dash as well as Cunningham who played in parts down back so we actually do have a few options in this area. Whether our transition actually improves will be dependent on how willing the coaches are prepared to take risks in our ball movement out of defence.



It's very difficult to say how we'll go next year because the season outcome will be highly dependent on how the core of youngsters we've blooded from 2016-18 have developed. Given we have more reliance on youth in the coming year I expect to see some inconsistency throughout the season; some great wins along with some absolutely shocking losses like this year.
The first SCG game will be very telling in terms of how our fortunes will go. It'll be interesting to see if we get put on the back foot and teams are setting up a zone across our half back line how we create counterattacking opportunities. If we lose games in the same fashion as a lot of 2018 SCG games it would be sign that we're missing finals next year.
I'll be watch Thurlow with great interest, with his size, speed and kicking if he can get himself established in our 22 he should produce some exciting performances

Good job

Would prefer Naismith as no. 1 ruck. Sinclair playing forward.

Grundy first option too.

Reid can help break a zone with his marking.

Winning the HO to advantage will make a huge difference at the SCG.

Plenty of pressure for spots if the team stays reasonably fit

 

[Skeparovic]

I initially forgot him and then edited him back in, in place of Cunningham who is very stiff to miss

For now I've gone with who is officially on our list at this point in time, but Blakey will add to our forward depth. But I don't expect him to have a massive impact on our 2019 season as forwards take some time.

2018 AFL NAB Rising Star winner Jaidyn Stephenson tends to dispute your bolded assertion (as could Blakey in 2019), however for KPF your assertion generally rings true.

 

[MartinLifts130]

That's Horse's fault. Horse will always play him where he can do least damage. That's his way. Heeney will start as sub this year

thanks, how much do u reckon he played forward this year, was it 50-50 mid-fwd?

 

[bungee]

thanks, how much do u reckon he played forward this year, was it 50-50 mid-fwd?

No idea mate. This year was a bit patched together due to injuries. He was even used down back a bit to shore up a narrow lead. Heeney can play just about anywhere on the ground, so I guess he went where he was needed most.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I've just done a selection exercise off the top of my head. Having selected the side, I have to check who I forgot. The brackets are players not first selected but seem designated.

Smith (O'Riordan) Grundy (Melican) Rampe
Lloyd (Ling) Allir McVeigh (Thurlow)
Florent Kennedy Blakey
Hayward Reid Franklin
Hewett McCartin Papley
Naismith Parker Heeney

Sinclair Mills Dawson Jack

Forgot: Jones Ronke Clarke (These would be selected before the designated bracketed players).

Depth: Fox Cameron Cunningham Rose (These I omitted from the best 22 consciously)

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I've just done a selection exercise off the top of my head. Having selected the side, I have to check who I forgot. The brackets are players not first selected but seem designated.

Smith (O'Riordan) Grundy (Melican) Rampe
Lloyd (Ling) Allir McVeigh (Thurlow)
Florent Kennedy Blakey
Hayward Reid Franklin
Hewett McCartin Papley
Naismith Parker Heeney

Sinclair Mills Dawson Jack

Forgot: Jones Ronke Clarke (These would be selected before the designated bracketed players).

Depth: Fox Cameron Cunningham Rose (These I omitted from the best 22 consciously)

Pretty good, although q bit top heavy.

Into your team I'd bring in COR, Ronke and Jones and omit Smith, Sinkers and Jack.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Pretty good, although q bit top heavy.

Into your team I'd bring in COR, Ronke and Jones and omit Smith, Sinkers and Jack.

I reckon Smith has credit yet, but he is in the category of players with brackets next to him.

I'm running a theory of playing Buddy small(er). As coach, I DO NOT want him to be a marking target, at least not a primary one. I want him roaming up around the centre square, with Reid and Sinclair/McCartin being the primary go to's.

I want the opposition coach to wonder who to match up with who. The way it's set up, you have 2 talls plus Buddy. We would have to (if we were the opposition) sacrifice Rampe to play on Buddy and that would hurt.

But if the outcome is that it's too top heavy, then McCartin out, Sinclair to full forward, and Jones in. Respect for heritage gives Jack first crack but I've no beef with Ronke replacing him soon if his form doesn't stack up.

Blakey is in because I was hearing they would have liked him in last year. But noting he is a first year player, that spot could just as easily be taken by Clarke.

 

[TheMase]

This will probably change by the start of next year but thought I’d give it a go.

I’ve done this on the basis that I reckon Clarke and Thurlow will put themselves in line for senior selection.

I have “retired” (break glass in case of emergency) McVeigh, Jack and Grundy. Smith I think will still add some value but COR is probably in line to replace him at some point. That isn’t to say those guys won’t play senior footy, I would just prioritise others.

Smith Melican Rampe
Lloyd Allir Thurlow
Florent Kennedy Jones
Heeney Reid Franklin
Ronke Sinclair Papley
Naismith Parker Hewett

Mills Clarke Cunningham Hayward

E: Dawson Blakey McCartin Cameron (ruck cover)

Parker and Heeney to alternate through the forward line.

Mills and Clarke midfield rotation with Kennedy, Hewett potentially Jones and Florent etc

Cunningham to relieve the wingers / small backs

Hayward to give forward relief

Others
O’Riordan
Ling
Fox
Rose
Grundy
Jack
McVeigh

If we go with one ruck one of Sinclair and Naismith to drop out and one of McCartin and Blakey to come in.

I’d expect Dawson to play a fair bit of footy this year. There will no doubt be injuries so I suspect he will be in the team most of the year.