Unofficial Preview 2020 Draft Discussion

[Roby]

You don’t know though. ‘Could be the next’ is such a hype line just to get casuals excited about the draft.

It's just a comparison, it's not say this is what will happen. It's a comparison to offer a player you've seen play many times to one you've never seen play.

 

[Bugs1977]

If you knew you were getting either Nick Riewoldt or Greg Willams at age 18 which one would you pick?

I’d go with the 18 year old Diesel. I’d then make him change his name to Samuel L Mitchell

 

[Stratton24]

How many AFL players actually play like the player they are compared to prior to being drafted? Scrimshaw/Birchall is the only one I can think of.

 

[Hawkas1988]

If you knew you were getting either Nick Riewoldt or Greg Willams at age 18 which one would you pick?

God we would be laughing if we ended up with a Nick Riewoldt or Greg Williams with this pick. Please be so.

Sent from my SM-G977B using Tapatalk

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Just want to point out that when Essendon were offering North Melbourne one first rounder as part of a deal for pick 2 they were only trading for an increased chance at getting McDonald. If Adelaide took McDonald then Essendon have done a trade and missed their target. Where as if they live trade with us on the night when it's our pick and McDonald is still available then they aren't trading for a chance any more, they are trading for a certainty.

That's worth a lot more in relative terms. Two first rounders would be very fair. But because it's Dodo I'd want us to turn the screws. At least make him say "pretty please".

Essendon wouldn't be looking to trade as soon as McDonald is off the table.

 

[Bardo State]

Surely there is absolutely no way we can look past McDonald if he slides to 4. He's already beating men 1 on 1 at 85kg. In contests, working up at the ball and working back to goal. He can kick them from anywhere. Top that off with no major injuries this year and exposed 2020 form.

Talk of vanilla is nonsense when you're kicking consistent goals in the WAFL as an 18 year old.

I won't be thrilled if we trade away that pick for some much more speculative selections (which is how I see Cox and Perkins).

 

[WWSD]

Our key position stocks is the worst in the league. If McDonald or Grainger-Barrass slide to pick 4, you have to pick them everyday of the week.

 

[WWSD]

It would be funny if North Melbourne select Hollands with pick 2.

 

[HolyRioli]

Last time we selected a KPF with pick 5 from Perth FC it worked out ok for us

just sayin’

 

[On Topic]

How many AFL players actually play like the player they are compared to prior to being drafted? Scrimshaw/Birchall is the only one I can think of.

They never are that accurate are they. I find it’s more of a loose comparison to a trait/position they play.

 

[On Topic]

It would be funny if North Melbourne select Hollands with pick 2.

You’d think they would take McDonald based on talent, availability and needs but Hollands would be a great choice at pick 2.

I’d love to get Hollands at 4 as well but I’m getting this nagging feeling that there’s a good chance that he will turn out to be another Cam Rayner. Quality player but not quiet worth a top 5 pick.

 

[HolyRioli]

If North aren't as bullish on McDonald, they'll take Hollands as his offering is unique compared to the rest of the draft class, and then target a KPP with their current pick 11.

 

[triple treat]

Trade 4 and 24 to North for 11 and next years 1st. Take the best tall with 11, then we get Downie and hopefully have 1 3rd rounder left to get a late gem

 

[Roby]

McDonald is not slow. He can still get quicker.

20m sprint is just that, a 20m sprint (which btw is separates them by a monk of an eye over 20 meters)

McDonald has better acceleration than Riewoldt.

 

[MrPremiership]

This. On what earth would we trade out a gun KPF for some other picks??
Take the kid and run. Next years draft is all mids at the top end. We wont get another chance like this. And if Dodo comes late, then bend him over. Hard.

McDonald and Lewis. Forward line sorted for a decade

 

[toomanysquibs]

McDonald has better acceleration than Riewoldt.

The clock doesn’t lie, and there’s a reason they measure it over 20m. Are you suggesting McDonald held back on this?

 

[Davo-27]

Everyone was so excited by Phillips but Logan doesn’t seem to be getting the same love. A tall forward who kicks goals, has good hands and a huge work rate... yes please!

i dont think anyone thought it was possible that he would slide to us.

it depends on what we are after, a Full Forward or a Midfielder?, i would take the Full Forward, because were not likely to get access to another good tall, but if we get Will Phillips, then we get a mid that wins poss and provides run which we so desperately need as well. (both our mid and forward line are patch worked atm and need a real fix, an injection of talent)

 

[Bugs1977]

i dont think anyone thought it was possible that he would slide to us.

If it was to happen (McDonald sliding to us) what are your thoughts Davo? Take him and run or offer 4 + 24 to the * for picks 6 + 8?

 

[Judd2Sewell]

McDonald is not slow. He can still get quicker.

20m sprint is just that, a 20m sprint (which btw is separates them by a monk of an eye over 20 meters)

McDonald has better acceleration than Riewoldt.

Not according to their respective 20 second times noted in the post above yours. But really it's a negligible different.

 

[HawkInExile]

Damn, I really want the draft to be tomorrow so we can get all over and done with to end all the speculation lol

It's definitely been great reading all the analysis and different thoughts that people have put forward. It's good that we all don't agree and challenge each others opinions.

I'm for one would be super happy to grab McDonald/DGB or Thilthorpe with our pick 4.

I think Phillips will be a solid AFL player, he just doesn't excite me though. Just my opinion.

 

[Dewnior]

I live for this sh*t.

Just saw an Essendon supporter on twitter tell him he has no idea and is way off the mark this year.

Like mate ... he works full time on this and only this.

Why would * select Campbell with their third pick when they could select him with their first and make $tains pay more for him? Doesn't make any sense.

 

[Dewnior]

I’d go with the 18 year old Diesel.

Yeah, but then you'd have to deal with him wanting to f&$k off to one of our competitors after 2 years for more coin.

 

[toomanysquibs]

i dont think anyone thought it was possible that he would slide to us.

I'd never even looked at him since I'd very much bought into the idea he was going to go number one.

At a guess there's still a chance he can go at any of those top pics.

The most overwhelming feeling I have since seeing Cal's phantom draft , and actually taking the 4 mins it took to watch McDonald's highlights, was what in the $#%# has been behind a claim I've heard repeated on our board a few times that he "marks the ball on his chest and not out in front"?

I just can't see how four minutes of him marking at the apex of his leap, at full stretch, and taking the ball in his hands on the lead somehow equates to him being a problem because 'he marks it on his chest'.

I realise we're all looking for deficiencies and abilities that might help us judge a talent better, but that is way out there imo.

I'm more curious about how his 20m sprint compares to Josh Kennedy at WC. He's being compared to Kennedy a lot here, but Kennedy is super slick at finding space on the lead with acceleration off the mark. Does McDonald have this same attribute? If so he seems a pretty sure bet, becuase he's clearly got a footballer's brain.

If not, as good a footballer as Mc Donald looks at the lower levels, he might get eaten up by the closing speed and close marking of AFL defenders.

I read in here just now that a tenth of a second in 20m sprint times doesn't amount to much in real world performance. That tenth of a second is absolutely pivotal for a leading player because it indicates explosive running ability. The first five-ten metres might be more important at stoppages, but as a forward your lead is going to be smack bang on that 20m a lot of the time. You may be in motion when you lead as well, but you still need the ability to rev your engine to max as quickly as possible to break away from AFL defenders.

It's more important for a defender to be quick since they react to their opponent and ball carrier, but every tenth of a second can be the difference in a player having half a meter of space, or no separation at all. No coincidence that JUH is sub 2.9 for 20 meters and able to mark on the lead the way he does at NAB level.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

(AFL site predraft write up from 2000)
Riewoldt
Is an excellent overhead mark and has a great work ethic continually presenting himself across half forward. Also shows great courage in contests. Won All Australian honours in AFL U18’s this year representing Queensland and played in the premiership side with Southport this year finishing runner up in the best and fairest. His Draft Camp results confirmed his athletic potential with a 2.92sec for 20m putting him in the top bracket for pace and his running vertical leap of 81cm also in the top rankings. His 13.11 beep result was also impressive along with his skill work where his overhead marking shone like a beacon.

McDonald

(from draft central)
"He does tend to rely on taking the ball on his chest a little, a trait which may see him come undone a touch under the pressure and pace of AFL football"
"McDonald tests well in the power tests such as the 20-metre sprint (3.029 seconds) and vertical leap (82cm), but is not massively explosive."

Similarities:
(From draft central)
"One of the main assets which sets McDonald apart is his endurance, something which has seen him draw comparisons to Nick Riewoldt. A preseason yo-yo test score of 21.3 and 2km time of 6:33 at the national combine suggest he is elite in that department, especially for a player of his size."

____________
I don't see how he has the potential to be the next Riewoldt when he literally shares one trait with him. Riewoldt was a different beast altogether, speed/endurance mix, super skilled and some of the best natural mitts in AFL history. McDonald has elite endurance. This is an empirical fact. He doesn't have elite overhead marking i.e. DGB or Henry or Sicily types- he is decent some of the time but uses his chest way too much. He rarely takes pack marks and relies on space i50 and good body-positioning one-on-one to protect the dangerous area.

If anyone watched Hawthorn's uber defensive game plan of kick it long down the line to a ruck and/or/then repeatedly bomb it into the 50 so TOB could spoil to our non-existent crumbers, where is all the "space" where McDonald is going to lead into to take chest marks? Or the dangerous space out the back left by virtue of our quick ball movement. The reality of an AFL zone defense is very different from a massive WAFL ground where a lotta the blokes look like human fridges. What's he going to do with McGovern, Andrews, Moore etc, these types, sitting in the space he wants to lead into?

Those who say I have a "bias" - implicit in a bias is that it is prejudiced or unfair, I would call my position analytical and critical - in that, I have considered what he does well, what he doesn't and how that package projects to fit within the modern game. In no way shape or form am I being contrarian because I have it in for him or some rubbish. An opinion among many others, but in a few years we will likely see only 3 or so from the Top 10 actually become very good/guns at AFL level. The strike rate his astoundingly poor. Look back at these

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
View attachment 1024303 View attachment 1024306View attachment 1024307View attachment 1024308View attachment 1024310

For KPP's

2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Weitering (tick) Schace (bust) Francis (bust) Weideman (average) McKay (too early)	McCartin (Bust) Marchbank (bust) Wright (Bust) Moore (Tick)	Boyd (avg) the others aren't genuine Kpp's	Plowman (Bust) Stringer (avg) Daniher (tick pre injury)	Patton (bust) Buntine? is he kpp? (Bust) Haynes (tick) Tomlinson (bust)

That's five drafts of top 10 KPP players who should by now have developed into mature AFL players. The strike rate for a GUN is 23% and that is generously including Daniher because of pre-injury.

The moral of the story and what I said when I first came on here, is all pre-draft stuff is blowing smoke, pipe-dream and fantasy land type stuff. But the cold hard facts are out of JUH, Thilthorpe, McDonald, DGB, Reid, Cox - there is likely one gun (maybe two), a couple of solid afl players and some abosute dead set spuds.

So based on this fact, when I watched the minimal footage of the players I have, I said to myself "where are the red flags" and for mine McDonald has a boatload - average to above average explosiveness, not fantastic above his head, not a fluid mover and slow/awkward field kicking (yes it can be effective), overperformed against lesser than AFL competition. Jackson Ross kicked 20 odd as well in a VFL season and he has the body of a draftee.

Anyway, that's my final word on McDonald and we will see how it all plays out. But like I said, if he is in B&G I hope I am wrong and I will cheer for the kid to become great.

cryptor I highlighted those traits in the previous post because they confirm my thinking about McDonald - he lacks superlatives - Endurance aside. If I was looking for something in a modern KPF endurance would be great, but I think great hands would be better. Not sure how you could call this a 'bias'? - as I said - you could put that description next to TOB and you would not be wrong. He also works hard, presents and kicks it pretty straight and long.

Read you all post draft

Yeah KPP in drafts have a substantially higher bust % than mids at the top end it seems.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

Should we land gun forward McDonald, you just know he will be our next CHB for the next ten years.