Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[BunjiMac]

Obv its not pick 2... but we finished bottom so that's the bonus we get... hes worth a 1st round compo... If we won the flag... that would be pick 19 and no one would complain. You wouldn't see sides going hes worth a 2nd round compo 37.....

Its the exact same logic

That's an excellent and accurate point.

Alot of this is coming from people that don't want us to get pick 2.

 

[Thetrader15]

Sorry I'll translate, I forgot my audience

Brad has had 1 good season, if the Crows offered Band 1 compo for a guy who can't get on the park, what would your thoughts be on that?

I'm assuming limited.

Let's just say I'd rate him above both Zac Williams and Joe Daniher.

I have him in the same territory as Dylan Shiel. It's not about how good the player is, it's the contract he gets. This is a chess game, not a player ranking.

If we were in the top 4, then I'd be all for going after him with a band 1 compo rather than giving up a first round pick or more.

 

[Scorpus]

That's an excellent and accurate point.

Alot of this is coming from people that don't want us to get pick 2.

Would you be happy giving a midfielder who's never made the AA team a contract large enough to be in the top 5% of players in the AFL?

I'd be pretty concerned if our club was linked with bringing in a player like that. So I don't think first round compensation is necessarily his fair value.

However I think that is what it will come down to for a club to actually get him. They will have to pay Brad well over market value

 

[Betts are off]

I don't think he's worth a first round compensation pick personally because I don't see him as a player worthy of a top 5% contract.

The only reason he'd get that is a club paying overs to get him without spending draft picks

Exactly. And you know which clubs absolutely love not using draft picks to get best 22 players and will gladly pay overs to do so? ALL CLUBS! All clubs in every sport ever!

Bottom line is his value as a trade target doesn't matter, because he's not a trade target, he's a FA. FA's have their own set of rules, and it show's low integrity for a AFL journalist to try and align a trade value to a FA. It was completely superfluous to his circumstance and intentionally misleading of Cal to suggest it as Brad's baseline value.

 

[Kezza86]

Sorry I'll translate, I forgot my audience

Brad has had 1 good season, if the Crows offered Band 1 compo for a guy who can't get on the park, what would your thoughts be on that?

I'm assuming limited.

Brad had more than 1 good season.

 

[thebirdman 24]

Pick 2 for a injury prone player who has never been AA team or squad is a no brainer.

I would even a mid first if we had too just to create some space in that midfield which is full of the same type of player.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Scorpus]

Exactly. And you know which clubs absolutely love not using draft picks to get best 22 players and will gladly pay overs to do so? ALL CLUBS! All clubs in every sport ever!

Bottom line is his value as a trade target doesn't matter, because he's not a trade target, he's a FA. FA's have their own set of rules, and it show's low integrity for a AFL journalist to try and align a trade value to a FA. It was completely superfluous to his circumstance and intentionally misleading of Cal to suggest it as Brad's baseline value.

Well if we match his FA offer because it's not large enough, it will become a trade deal. It's pretty obvious that's what Twomey was referring to, given it's super clear there's no mechanism for Brad to get a late first under the compensation system.

If it becomes another Dangerfield situation, where we wouldn't be satisfied with the compensation pick (eg pick 19) and want to get more value, I don't think he was that far off with his trade value. A pick around 10 is more appropriate

I also don't think it's that unreasonable to suggest Brad's value under the compensation pick system is closer to end of 1st than it is pick 2

 

[fabs33]

Was James Frawley worth pick 3?

 

[StonesThrow]

So I'm kind of excited about the idea of having 6-8 picks in the first 3 rounds, depending on free agency, but I can't help but notice Adelaide's record in the national draft has kinda been below par since Matt Rendell left. Matt Crouch and Tom Doedee are the only genuinely good players in 9 years of drafting. A few others have shown good signs but still in the maybe category. Really hope they nail this draft. That's a hell of a lot of duds though...

2012 - Sam Siggins, Rory Atkins
2013 - Matt Crouch, Riley Knight
2014 - Jake Lever, Mitch McGovern, Harrison Wigg, Harry Dear
2015 - Wayne Milera, Tom Doedee
2016 - Jordan Gallucci, Myles Poholke, Elliott Himmelberg, Matthew Signorello, Ben Davis
2017 - Darcy Fogarty, Andrew McPherson
2018 - Chayce Jones, Ned McHenry, Will Hamill, Lachlan Sholl
2019 - Fischer McAsey, Harry Schoenberg, Josh Worrell, Ronin O'Connor, Lachlan Gollant

I know this probably won't alter your opinion, but i've gone down a bit of a rabbit hole and had a look at some clubs drafting during this period to compare.

I'll preface this by saying that there are a huge amount of variables that go into overall success on the field. This is purely looking at draft selections and how those players have turned out (so far at least).

Putting numbers to picks helps with perspective and although determining if players are best 22 can be subjective, it gives some idea of how things have worked out.

I've done this for around 10 clubs so far but have chosen a few of interest other than ours. Obviously Richmond is the benchmark. Carlton are a club who have had one of the best non-expansion ND draft hands in this time and West Coast have had a very similar draft hand to us during this time and have performed pretty well on field.






These tables look at the median ND pick during these years only considering the first 4 picks of any year. Some clubs have good draft hands but the median is still skewed by having lots of later picks as well (Brisbane). Hence I only chose the first 4 picks to measure as this is around the average number of picks a club uses per year.

I removed 2019 as imo this is way too early to judge a draft year. You could even make this case against 2018, but I've left that in anyway.

Best 22 is all of the players that I believe are in the current best 22 of that club slected in the ND. I have also added Best 22 from the ND + RD selections to show how some teams have built teams outside of the ND. Finally I've added Best 22 from the ND + RD + players who have left the club who I believe would still be in the 22. This last one shows the impact of players leaving a club. These decisions are subjective and others might disagreeon some of the calls.

Red means an entire draft hasn't plucked one best 22 player. Green means players drafted from both ND and RD who would be best 22 for that club regardless of where they are now.

** Some players who have left that I haven't said would be best 22 for the club they were drafted to may have gone on to be best 22 for their current club.
*** There are obviously differences in quality of players in each best 22
**** I'll add names once I've finished every club



You can draw your own conclusions about ND calls, but for me:

Adelaide: Draft reasonably well in the ND but have lacked access to the elite talent. 2012 was stastically going to be difficult but it hurts the club that we didn't discover a couple of smokies like other drafts. 2016 was also looking disasterous if it hadn't been for the promise of Himm. We can at least salvage something from it. Losing our best 22 2014 picks has also hurt (yes I still rate Gov injury free). Injuries have also had an impact on the 2015 class, who have otherwise shown to be good picks when injury free. Only having Matt Crouch from the 2012-13-14 NDs has created a real hole in our list.

I think 2017-18 could be very telling for the club, which hasn't played out yet.

Richmond: Do similar to us in the ND with similar picks. Their rookie picks have been their strength and they have kept this entire group (ND + RD) together (minus Butler). Not to mention all the other things to do really well.

Carlton: Stuffed two drafts entirely and apart from Cripps and 2015, have been quite poor. Haven't nailed a rookie pick either. 2015 will hold them in reasonable stead.

West Coast: Very similar draft hands to us and I'd argue they have done worse. Hard to tell with 2018. They also haven't tapped the rookie draft at all.


I'll upload the whole lot when they're finished.

 

[1990crow]

Was James Frawley worth pick 3?

Checks team.
Victorian.





Yes.

 

[Betts are off]

Well if we match his FA offer because it's not large enough, it will become a trade deal. It's pretty obvious that's what Twomey was referring to, given it's super clear there's no mechanism for Brad to get a late first under the compensation system.

If it becomes another Dangerfield situation, where we wouldn't be satisfied with the compensation pick (eg pick 19) and want to get more value, I don't think he was that far off with his trade value. A pick around 10 is more appropriate

I also don't think it's that unreasonable to suggest Brad's value under the compensation pick system is closer to end of 1st than it is pick 2

There's your problem mate. This couldn't be further from the Dangerfield situation. Brad's not forcing a move, and he can't walk via the PSD. We are seeing if we get overs (and I agree 2 is overs, but getting overs is the entire point) for a player in FA, playing by the FA rules, and if not we maintain the luxury of matching bids to keep him. End of story.

If we were to 'force a trade' we would be actively forcing Brad out, which by all accounts is not what either party wants! So if there is no indication that Brad wants to go, or that we want to force him out, then it is unreasonable for a AFL journalist to assign baseline a trade value to a FA whose has publicly stated he has no intention of actively seeking a trade!

 

[crow2crow]

Was James Frawley worth pick 3?

exactly. there are no herbs and spices

it’s just the salary if it hits band 1 you get band 1. for us band 1 is pick 2 and why brad unfortunately is in this situation. like brown, brad had an offer which was rescinded when covid19 hit.

power is back in the hands of clubs.

 

[crow2crow]

There's your problem mate. This couldn't be further from the Dangerfield situation. Brad's not forcing a move, and he can't walk via the PSD. We are seeing if we get overs (and I agree 2 is overs, but getting overs is the entire point) for a player in FA, playing by the FA rules, and if not we maintain the luxury of matching bids to keep him. End of story.

If we were to 'force a trade' we would be actively forcing Brad out, which by all accounts is not what either party wants! So if there is no indication that Brad wants to go, or that we want to force him out, then it is unreasonable for a AFL journalist to assign baseline a trade value to a FA whose has publicly stated he has no intention of actively seeking a trade!

very well written well done

 

[Thetrader15]

There's your problem mate. This couldn't be further from the Dangerfield situation. Brad's not forcing a move, and he can't walk via the PSD. We are seeing if we get overs (and I agree 2 is overs, but getting overs is the entire point) for a player in FA, playing by the FA rules, and if not we maintain the luxury of matching bids to keep him. End of story.

If we were to 'force a trade' we would be actively forcing Brad out, which by all accounts is not what either party wants! So if there is no indication that Brad wants to go, or that we want to force him out, then it is unreasonable for a AFL journalist to assign baseline a trade value to a FA whose has publicly stated he has no intention of actively seeking a trade!

Exactly.

"Brad, here's the offer, just below band 1. If you can get another offer above that, good luck, it's been fun and we'll give you a lift to the airport"

 

[GROTTO]

Exactly.

"Brad, here's the offer, just below band 1. If you can get another offer above that, good luck, it's been fun and we'll give you a lift to the airport"

I have a sneaking suspicion, you wont be driving him to the airport but across to the feral part of town.

 

[crow2crow]

I have a sneaking suspicion, you wont be driving him to the airport but across to the feral part of town.

yeh but he can drive wines to the airport on the way through

 

[Scorpus]

There's your problem mate. This couldn't be further from the Dangerfield situation. Brad's not forcing a move, and he can't walk via the PSD. We are seeing if we get overs (and I agree 2 is overs, but getting overs is the entire point) for a player in FA, playing by the FA rules, and if not we maintain the luxury of matching bids to keep him. End of story.

If we were to 'force a trade' we would be actively forcing Brad out, which by all accounts is not what either party wants! So if there is no indication that Brad wants to go, or that we want to force him out, then it is unreasonable for a AFL journalist to assign baseline a trade value to a FA whose has publicly stated he has no intention of actively seeking a trade!

I think you are missing the important middle ground where Brad is offered a contract larger than what we are willing to offer, but not large enough for band 1 compensation

Are we really going to keep Brad on a 5 year deal at $650k? That's probably not enough for pick 2 and it doesn't sound like we're super keen to dish out that sort of contract for him

 

[Scorpus]

Exactly.

"Brad, here's the offer, just below band 1. If you can get another offer above that, good luck, it's been fun and we'll give you a lift to the airport"

An offer just below band 1 is a very sizable contract. If we have that on the table he'd sign with us and not consider other offers if he has no intention of leaving

 

[Shaz2012]

Unfort I don’t think we should assume we get pick 2

I’d call that a 50/50 proposition maybe at best

Yeah, one of those big footy fantasy scenarios that NEVER pan out . Darcy Fogarty the exception.

 

[Murray2503]

I think we need to wait and see how the trade period plays out. If a team loses some top line mids they will come knocking for brad. It's just going to take some time. I think we can safely assume that no club has offered Brad what he and his manager think he is worth. He will have to drop his price especially with the cap reduction about to occur. We may just end up matching and working out a trade for brad if it's the best deal we will get. If we do get around pick 11-13 for him we may need to bundle another pick to trade into the top 10. Surely the AFL can tell us where we stand in regards to compo once we know the contract Brad has been offered.

 

[crow2crow]

I think you are missing the important middle ground where Brad is offered a contract larger than what we are willing to offer, but not large enough for band 1 compensation

Are we really going to keep Brad on a 5 year deal at $650k? That's probably not enough for pick 2 and it doesn't sound like we're super keen to dish out that sort of contract for him

he will get an offer of 650 come on. have you seen some of the offers for complete spuds let alone brad even if he is injured for 1/3 of games.

 

[Betts are off]

I think you are missing the important middle ground where Brad is offered a contract larger than what we are willing to offer, but not large enough for band 1 compensation

Are we really going to keep Brad on a 5 year deal at $650k? That's probably not enough for pick 2 and it doesn't sound like we're super keen to dish out that sort of contract for him

I think that point can not exist if we are serious about executing a plan like this!

Either we buckle or the AFL buckles. The moment we concede that there is a middle ground, we've already lost!

 

[Scorpus]

he will get an offer of 650 come on. have you seen some of the offers for complete spuds let alone brad even if he is injured for 1/3 of games.

$650k isn't enough. Even $700-750k might not be enough for band 1.

We're talking BIG contract to get into the top 5%. $800k+ over 5+ years

 

[crow2crow]

I think we need to wait and see how the trade period plays out. If a team loses some top line mids they will come knocking for brad. It's just going to take some time. I think we can safely assume that no club has offered Brad what he and his manager think he is worth. He will have to drop his price especially with the cap reduction about to occur. We may just end up matching and working out a trade for brad if it's the best deal we will get. If we do get around pick 11-13 for him we may need to bundle another pick to trade into the top 10. Surely the AFL can tell us where we stand in regards to compo once we know the contract Brad has been offered.

there won’t be a trade
his attraction is being the only A grade mid in this draft you don’t need to sell the pick farm to get
everyone stop stressing. he may well stay. my only worry is they then pick a tall with pick 1 and we lose hollands

 

[Scorpus]

I think that point can not exist if we are serious about executing a plan like this!

Either we buckle or the AFL buckles. The moment we concede that there is a middle ground, we've already lost!

Well we can't push someone out who wants to stay while simultaneously offering him a contract he'd be happy to accept