Analysis 2020 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[RUNVS]

Okay. I did this thread last year and thought it was pretty successful. This thread is not about trade rumours or things like that, but rather it is more encompassing, making assumptions of the way trades are going to go and trying to figure out how our best 22 will or should go with those changes, not to mention seeing the flaws in our 2019 team and using this thread as a discussion for what direction our list, gameplan and best 22 should go for the 2020 season so the Swans can shoot back up the ladder.

So to start off, this was our team for round 23 against St Kilda

B: T.McCartin, D.Rampe, L.Melican
HB: J.Lloyd, C.Mills, J.McVeigh
C: O.Florent, L.Parker, G.Hewett
HF: J.Dawson, L.Franklin, N.Blakey
F: T.Papley, A.Aliir, I.Heeney
FOLL: S.Reid, J.Kennedy, K.Jack
I/C: R.Fox, D.Menzel, J.Rowbottom, B.Ronke
EMG: H.McLean, R.Clarke, J.Rose, J.Bell

Now this team is not entirely reflective of our best team as we did bring in Jack and McVeigh for farewell games. It also has Aliir playing in entirely the wrong position because we had no rucks.

So, and I am making assumptions here but I am assuming we are going to lose Papley and Jones, while also picking up Daniher. This is the immediate replacements we need

B: T.McCartin, D.Rampe, L.Melican
HB: J.Lloyd, C.Mills, XXXX
C: O.Florent, L.Parker, G.Hewett
HF: J.Dawson, L.Franklin, N.Blakey
F: XXXX, A.Aliir, I.Heeney
FOLL: S.Reid, J.Kennedy, XXXX
I/C: R.Fox, D.Menzel, J.Rowbottom, B.Ronke
EMG: H.McLean, R.Clarke, J.Rose, J.Bell

This is what I think our best 22 should be

B: T.McCartin, D.Rampe, L.Melican
HB: J.Lloyd, A.Aliir, H.Cunningham
C: O.Florent, I.Heeney, G.Hewett
HF: J.Dawson, L.Franklin, N.Blakey
F: B.Ronke, J.Daniher, L.Parker
FOLL: Naismith, J.Kennedy, C.Mills
I/C: S.Reid, D.Menzel, J.Rowbottom, W.Hayward
EMG: R.Clarke, C.Riordan, J.Bell, J.Thurlow, R.Fox, C.Sinclair


As much as I would love McCartin to be up forward I don't think we can fit him into the forward line with Buddy, Daniher, Reid and possibly Blakely in there, and as a result he needs to go to defence.

McCartin, Aliir and Melican do have the potential to be a good defensive combination as all three are mobile. Aliir is an attacking weapon out of defence, McCartin is a very good reader of the ball and a strong mark, also reasonably big bodied for his age. Melican had some difficulty in 2019 but I think he can improve. We also have Maibaum as well if the Swans don't delist him. He was looking very promising in 2019 before doing his ACL.

Midfield though, and I am going to sound like a broken record here but we desperately need Mills and Heeney as full time midfielders. With McCartin going into defence we also really don't need Mills back there, as McCartin can do the job. We also need Hewett to no longer be used as a tagger and start being played as a proper ball winning midfielder as he proved a few times in 2019 that he can do it. Having Kennedy, Mills, Heeney, Parker and Rowbottom as our main midfielders would help a lot. We also have Clarke in the emergencies who I think can play a midfield role as well.

Ruck was tough, but I went with Naismith over Sinclair for the only reason that Naismith is a better tap ruckman. I really want Sinclair in the side as I think he would be perfect in the 65/35 forward/ruck role but our forward line is so tall as it is I can't fit Sinclair in it, not without us having the tallest forward line in history.

With that in mind though, our forward line is always going to be super tall with or without Sinclair in there, and as a result we are going to need our midfielders to deliver the ball a lot better than the last few years as we will need one of Buddy, Daniher, Reid, Blakey etc to out and out mark the ball. If the ball hits the ground I don't think we will be creating many forward 50 stoppages.

So what do you think? What do you think our best 22 should be in 2020 (from what we know or are guessing based on trade rumours) and how do you think our team should change in 2020 to improve on a rather poor 2019?

 

[S120]

I know that speculating about the side at this point in time is useless, but it's so much fun so why not. Let me dream.

I'm going to assume that Jones and Papley leave and we get Daniher without any other senior-calibre players. I reckon we probably will get another one or two (Bennell, Bailey Williams?) but who knows who they'll be at this point.

Rampe - McCartin - O'Riordan
Dawson - Aliir - Mills
Blakey - Hewett - Lloyd
Heeney - Franklin - Hayward
Reid - Daniher - Parker
Sinclair - Kennedy - Florent

Rowbottom - Cunningham - Wicks - Ronke

Defensive group:
- Rampe, McCartin, Aliir as the tall defenders
- Cunningham takes the best small forward
- Dawson, Mills, O'Riordan take the rest of the smalls/mediums, and are good interceptors and can handle the rebounding out of defence. In fact throw in Cunningham, Rampe and Aliir and we've got a good deal of athleticism and run out of defence with some good disposal.

Midfield group:
- Sinclair is questionable (I really hope we find another ruck who can compete for the spot here, Archie Smith or Ivan Soldo would be great)
- Reid to be 2nd ruck to whoever our first ruck is
- Kennedy, Parker, Hewett, Florent, Rowbottom handle the majority of inside minutes with Heeney splitting time forward and middle
- Blakey and Lloyd are our two main wingmen in this side. I'd love to see Lloyd pushed out of defence where I think he has become stifled

Forward group:
- Franklin plays up at CHF, Daniher deep for the most part, Reid needs to play an important role on the third best defender
- Heeney, Hayward playing across HF and rotating deep
- Wicks is a bit of a bolt from the blue, but if we lose Papley we desperately need a quick, tackling small forward. Wicks fits the bill there with Ronke

I like the balance of this side. Our inside midfield rotation is still shallow though.

 

[RUNVS]

Midfield group:
- Sinclair is questionable (I really hope we find another ruck who can compete for the spot here, Archie Smith or Ivan Soldo would be great)
- Reid to be 2nd ruck to whoever our first ruck is
- Kennedy, Parker, Hewett, Florent, Rowbottom handle the majority of inside minutes with Heeney splitting time forward and middle
- Blakey and Lloyd are our two main wingmen in this side. I'd love to see Lloyd pushed out of defence where I think he has become stifled

Out of interest what would you do with Hewett? Up until now he has been a really good tagger but I think he proved in parts this year that he is capable of a lot more than that.

I wonder if Hewett becomes a proper mid if we could have Clarke as the tagger, as Clarke did that job in parts in 2019 as well and he seemed reasonably adept at it.

 

[S120]

Out of interest what would you do with Hewett? Up until now he has been a really good tagger but I think he proved in parts this year that he is capable of a lot more than that.

I wonder if Hewett becomes a proper mid if we could have Clarke as the tagger, as Clarke did that job in parts in 2019 as well and he seemed reasonably adept at it.

I'd deploy Hewett as less a tagger and more a run-with player. A guy who can be accountable for the best midfielder but is given direct instruction to not let that be his primary focus. I think that's when he's at his best like through the middle of the year.

There are better players than Clarke for our best 22 imo. I'm happy to have him as depth and he got better as 2019 wore on, but I'd prefer others ahead of him.

 

[Punts]

Dawson stays at HB for me

Mccartin in front of melican

 

[S120]

Dawson stays at HB for me

Mccartin in front of melican

Definitely Dawson at HB for now. If we get Daniher, our forward line is stacked for marking talent with Bud, Heeney, Reid and then Hayward too.

Get Dawson across HB to intercept and set up play - his qualities suit that role down to the ground. Make him our Shannon Hurn - in terms of height, intercepting and distribution off HB (not comparing the two outside of those qualities).

 

[RUNVS]

Definitely Dawson at HB for now. If we get Daniher, our forward line is stacked for marking talent with Bud, Heeney, Reid and then Hayward too.

Get Dawson across HB to intercept and set up play - his qualities suit that role down to the ground. Make him our Shannon Hurn - in terms of height, intercepting and distribution off HB (not comparing the two outside of those qualities).

There is something to be said for that as West Coast now use Jetta in that role, rightly coming to the conclusion that their best field kick should be in the position where being an accurate and damaging kicker of the ball is of vital importance.

 

[The King!]

i think mccartin plays ahead of reid forward

if he goes back theres a spot maybe



midfield a big worry

 

[Punts]

Bennell if FIT will be a best mid

 

[The King!]

i doubt blakey gets major midfield time next year either

lloyd wont go to a wing

 

[Punts]

i doubt blakey gets major midfield time next year either

lloyd wont go to a wing

Blakey imo will be a winger with stints inside

 

[The King!]

Blakey imo will be a winger with stints inside

I think he should be and will be one day

but i bet he stays the same split as this year

will take horse a few years to work things out

 

[RUNVS]

midfield a big worry

To me this is the one stat which is the biggest concern

Inside 50's vs opponent
1. Port Adelaide (9.5)
2. Richmond (5.8)
3. Western Bulldogs (5.0)
4. Brisbane (4.2)
5. Hawthorn (3.5)
6. Geelong (3.2)
7. Collingwood (2.5)
8. Melbourne (1.9)
9. North Melbourne (0.9)
10. GWS (0.3)
11. St Kilda (-0.5)
12. Fremantle (-0.6)
13. West Coast (-1.5)
14. Adelaide (-2.5)
15. Essendon (-4.6)
16. Carlton (-6.9)
17. Sydney (-8.7)
18. Gold Coast (-12.6)

Teams that finished in the 8 are in bold, so 6 of the teams that finished in the 8 are all in positive territory when it comes to inside 50's compared to their opponents. Swans are second last, and are considerably worse than both Carlton and Essendon. Even St Kilda's midfield pumped ours, and by a long way as well.

 

[Olian]

To me this is the one stat which is the biggest concern

Inside 50's vs opponent
1. Port Adelaide (9.5)
2. Richmond (5.8)
3. Western Bulldogs (5.0)
4. Brisbane (4.2)
5. Hawthorn (3.5)
6. Geelong (3.2)
7. Collingwood (2.5)
8. Melbourne (1.9)
9. North Melbourne (0.9)
10. GWS (0.3)
11. St Kilda (-0.5)
12. Fremantle (-0.6)
13. West Coast (-1.5)
14. Adelaide (-2.5)
15. Essendon (-4.6)
16. Carlton (-6.9)
17. Sydney (-8.7)
18. Gold Coast (-12.6)

Teams that finished in the 8 are in bold, so 6 of the teams that finished in the 8 are all in positive territory when it comes to inside 50's compared to their opponents. Swans are second last, and are considerably worse than both Carlton and Essendon. Even St Kilda's midfield pumped ours, and by a long way as well.

Port are number 1 which shows inside 50’s versus opponent are hard to read as a stat.

Swans for instance have a positive marks inside 50 differential versus their opponent of 2.7. Ports differential is only a positive 2 and overall they average less marks inside 50 than Sydney yet get the ball inside 50 more often.

So we may get the ball in less times but we are more effective when we do.

Anyway our midfield would be assisted with a ruck next year whether its Sinclair or Naismith.

 

[SB70]

I know that speculating about the side at this point in time is useless, but it's so much fun so why not. Let me dream.

I'm going to assume that Jones and Papley leave and we get Daniher without any other senior-calibre players. I reckon we probably will get another one or two (Bennell, Bailey Williams?) but who knows who they'll be at this point.

Rampe - McCartin - O'Riordan
Dawson - Aliir - Mills
Blakey - Hewett - Lloyd
Heeney - Franklin - Hayward
Reid - Daniher - Parker
Sinclair - Kennedy - Florent

Rowbottom - Cunningham - Wicks - Ronke

Defensive group:
- Rampe, McCartin, Aliir as the tall defenders
- Cunningham takes the best small forward
- Dawson, Mills, O'Riordan take the rest of the smalls/mediums, and are good interceptors and can handle the rebounding out of defence. In fact throw in Cunningham, Rampe and Aliir and we've got a good deal of athleticism and run out of defence with some good disposal.

Midfield group:
- Sinclair is questionable (I really hope we find another ruck who can compete for the spot here, Archie Smith or Ivan Soldo would be great)
- Reid to be 2nd ruck to whoever our first ruck is
- Kennedy, Parker, Hewett, Florent, Rowbottom handle the majority of inside minutes with Heeney splitting time forward and middle
- Blakey and Lloyd are our two main wingmen in this side. I'd love to see Lloyd pushed out of defence where I think he has become stifled

Forward group:
- Franklin plays up at CHF, Daniher deep for the most part, Reid needs to play an important role on the third best defender
- Heeney, Hayward playing across HF and rotating deep
- Wicks is a bit of a bolt from the blue, but if we lose Papley we desperately need a quick, tackling small forward. Wicks fits the bill there with Ronke

I like the balance of this side. Our inside midfield rotation is still shallow though.

I agree with almost all of that - it does highlight the gap that Jones will leave - we are short of pace in the middle. I want to think Hayward will be able to do it, or Bennell but long shots.
Naismith is the one I am not sure on - as great a competitor as Sinclair is I can't help thinking some of the midfield issues start with a limited ruck - Naismith is limited round the ground but could he kickstart the midfield??

 

[Opts]

Bennell if FIT will be a best mid

Agreed, But my default stance on Bennell is that him playing will be highly unlikely. If he gets his calf right and his his act together it will be a very pleasant bonus.

BTW, is there any confirmation that we will take him?

 

[Opts]

Definitely Dawson at HB for now. If we get Daniher, our forward line is stacked for marking talent with Bud, Heeney, Reid and then Hayward too.

Get Dawson across HB to intercept and set up play - his qualities suit that role down to the ground. Make him our Shannon Hurn - in terms of height, intercepting and distribution off HB (not comparing the two outside of those qualities).

Agreed. Dawson's elite kicking is wasted in the forward line. We need him delivering beautifully to our forwards; a skill that we've lacked for years. Ditto with Blakey. It's a shame they are both left footers. It would be nice to have them playing on opposite wings.

 

[scaryness]

B: Aliir - Rampe - Dawson
HB: Mills - McCartin - Lloyd
C: Heeney - Hewett - Florent
HF: Reid - Daniher - Blakey
F: Hayward - Franklin - Menzel
R: Naismith? - Parker - Rowbottom

INT: Kennedy - Williams - Bennell - ORiordan

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

B: Aliir - Rampe - Dawson
HB: Mills - McCartin - Lloyd
C: Heeney - Hewett - Florent
HF: Reid - Daniher - Blakey
F: Hayward - Franklin - Menzel
R: Naismith? - Parker - Rowbottom

INT: Kennedy - Williams - Bennell - ORiordan

That is a very tall team. Collectively it is almost Crippsian. So the assumption is Paps and Jones depart and we acquire Bender, Joe and Williams.

I would like to see a little more pace in the team, particularly on the forward line.

For me Wicks and Ronke need to be squeezed in to the team. They would replace Menzel and Reid. I would also move Dawson to the wing and Florent to the I/C, with Lloyd moving to the Back Pocket and COR starting on HBF.

 

[RUNVS]

B: Aliir - Rampe - Dawson
HB: Mills - McCartin - Lloyd
C: Heeney - Hewett - Florent
HF: Reid - Daniher - Blakey
F: Hayward - Franklin - Menzel
R: Naismith? - Parker - Rowbottom

INT: Kennedy - Williams - Bennell - ORiordan

Who is Williams?

 

[S120]

B: Aliir - Rampe - Dawson
HB: Mills - McCartin - Lloyd
C: Heeney - Hewett - Florent
HF: Reid - Daniher - Blakey
F: Hayward - Franklin - Menzel
R: Naismith? - Parker - Rowbottom

INT: Kennedy - Williams - Bennell - ORiordan

Ignoring Williams and Bennell because we're speculating there, Cunningham in for Menzel is my change. I'd be making Cunningham our primary small defender from now on and Menzel is superfluous with those other tall forwards in. Provides very good depth though

 

[Chaisa]

Who is Williams?

Bailey Williams from Western Bulldogs I believe.

 

[DobmusEdge]

Ignoring Williams and Bennell because we're speculating there, Cunningham in for Menzel is my change. I'd be making Cunningham our primary small defender from now on and Menzel is superfluous with those other tall forwards in. Provides very good depth though

Yes Harry to be our new Nick Smith.

 

[caesar88]

Not a lot of love for COR around these ways. Easy to forget as he's nothing spectacular and he got injured mid-year, but the week before getting injured he played his best game for us in Perth against Freo, just one in a month of footy where he was really solid defensively and looked more confident than ever. It seemed like it finally clicked for him.

I see him as our Nick Smith replacement, he's tough and has good pressure to play on small forwards but also has some pace and attack that Smooch never had.

 

[S120]

Not a lot of love for COR around these ways. Easy to forget as he's nothing spectacular and he got injured mid-year, but the week before getting injured he played his best game for us in Perth against Freo, just one in a month of footy where he was really solid defensively and looked more confident than ever. It seemed like it finally clicked for him.

I see him as our Nick Smith replacement, he's tough and has good pressure to play on small forwards but also has some pace and attack that Smooch never had.

O'Riordan is definitely in my best 22 but i don't see him as the guy to play on the best small forwards. Before he got hurt he was spending time on guys like Cripps and Dangerfield when they went forward and I like him on the medium kind of marking forwards because that let's him go up in marking contests more. He's a good intercept mark and has a good leap which is better utilised there than having to track the small forwards on the ground at the feet of the marking contest.

I've been really bullish on O'Riordan since his debut, I'm really glad the coaches gave him a proper run this year an I reckon he has won their trust now.