List Mgmt. 2020 List Management

[Dunna Heartknee]

Parfit, Narkle and there 1st swap for later picks = CCurnow
Geelong 1st our 1st or Lob or Marchbank = Papley
Looks tempting
Geelong look like they loose / wouldn't do it
Personally I wouldn't do it

 

[TheVapors]

When Dow gets back into the team, he needs to see more time in the middle. Get him around the ball and just get him involved.

In any sport, the forward line is one of the most difficult positions for a young player, especially if they’re not used to playing that position. It’s a limited opportunity area where you really need to be doing everything to a really high standard. You can see it with Eddie, he makes something happen every time the ball comes near him, and he increases his chances of getting near the ball simply through his experience. Dow doesn’t have that yet, and expecting him to be damaging or even sufficient in a forward role is a huge ask. You could see it last year with some of our more experienced players. Ed, Gibbons, and even Murphy struggled when they were pushed up front. Gibbons has got better since then, but it has taken some time and perhaps a more defined role. The forward line isn’t easy unless you know what you’re doing.

If we can’t find a spot for Dow in the middle, then I don’t think we should be playing him in the ones. His time would be better spent getting some midfield run in the twos. Putting him back up forward in the ones would just be detrimental, to both him and the team.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Reckon Geelong will be after CCurnow.

Plenty of players there, that are on the way out and plenty of gaps will appear. Come the start of next year -
Hawkins-32, Ablett-36, Henderson-31, Jenkins-32, Selwood-33, Taylor-34, Tuohy-31, Steven-31, Dangerfield-31, Blicas-30, Stanley-30

Some of these players will go this year and some the next and it's not as though they have ready made replacements for several of these guys.
They're going to have to come in from outside.

Cut a long story short - Geelong will be after talent and quickly.

This is why I’m so keen on as improving our side more quickly even if it means overpaying players to get them in. Playing the longer more patient game is the right move but if it goes on for too long you soon have to overpay to keep your own talent because they aren’t in a successful side.

who knows what clubs like Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney might offer someone like McKay. He is probably worth us paying $500k because of his potential but to a club like those listed above, taking a risk they could offer him $700k.

I think we also forget there are 17 other sides trying to do what we are doing. It’s like every time I see someone say get Williams and Papley or some other A grader and we will be in contention I think that it’s hard to actually think of a side who if you add two A graders to wouldn’t be thinking the exact same thing. It’s bloody hard to get really good footballers into a club.

 

[HARKER]

I think we also forget there are 17 other sides trying to do what we are doing. It’s like every time I see someone say get Williams and Papley or some other A grader and we will be in contention I think that it’s hard to actually think of a side who if you add two A graders to wouldn’t be thinking the exact same thing. It’s bloody hard to get really good footballers into a club.

Some time, not too far away from this time last year, we had Papley and Martin in the bag and were fighting it out hard for Coniglio.
Any notion of Newnes and Butler would have been laughed at..Fast forward..We sweat it out to get Martin and were happy to have attained Newnes & Pittonet

It's hard to get one good footballer let alone several.
Not to say we can't do well just yet, but it's not easy.

I feel we'll be somewhat reluctant in letting go a McKay but not so much '20 & '21 first rounders.
Some other younger guys may be worth letting go, if the right deal can be struck

 

[gbatman]

You've not actually confronted what I've said in here at all.

You are not the only person to watch our games, either. We all see what we see, and what I see is some fairly grandiose statements being made about a third year player who spent the preseason last year injured and who hasn't kicked a footy in anger this season.

There are a fair few all time greats who are poor chasers, and a few fairly decent players who are ordinary kicks.

It's mostly irrelevant that Dow has not played footy this season, I've seen enough to see some poor qualities that likely won't improve a great deal. They might but a lot of the time they don't. Again stats are irrelevant as what is wrong with Dow's game isn't really recorded statistically.

Again we will wait and see how he finishes off this season. I would be happy if he was an average kick but made up for it by being a tough nut and a good ball winner as someone like Dangerfield has done.

Sounds logical.

I am interested to know why you believe Dow will at best become an ordinary player if he improved his disposal and was able to chase/apply pressure? Imo if he was able to make those improvements he would become a very good player. He is already quite good at weaving in and out of traffic, quick handballs and burst speed.

Dow has some good qualities and some bad qualities. Why he may become just a good ordinary player is simple. He looks like he could be a good ball winner and he has some pace and could become a strong bodied player. He could become a good centerman and possibly an elite ball winner (average 25+ possessions). That's not out of the question at all. But he's a very poor kick and his pressure acts are very poor, chasing just doesn't come natural to him. Suggests he might become a good ball winner who can carry the footy a bit but turns it over a lot and doesn't provide a great deal of pressure. That would make him just a good ordinary player IMO. If he improved in all areas, say becomes a good ball winner and a reasonable kick and his pressure acts improved then sure, he would be an elite player then and that would be great.

 

[Gethelred]

It's mostly irrelevant that Dow has not played footy this season, I've seen enough to see some poor qualities that likely won't improve a great deal. They might but a lot of the time they don't. Again stats are irrelevant as what is wrong with Dow's game isn't really recorded statistically.

Again we will wait and see how he finishes off this season. I would be happy if he was an average kick but made up for it by being a tough nut and a good ball winner as someone like Dangerfield has done.

I sure wish I could handwave everything said in opposition to my arguments the way you seem to.

He's 20. It's not irrelevant to say that by the time they're twenty most footballers are in their infancy, let alone a way off their prime. He was showing good signs early in the season before being consigned to playing ahead of the ball, something which you yourself acknowledge is not his go.

I am amused by your dismissal of statistics as a measure of a player's quality at relevant stages of their careers when marked against their peers. There's more to the sport than possessions, sure, but my analysis was not based on solely possessions, was it?

 

[gbatman]

Both Crouch brothers are high tacklers and big ball winners. They both add a lot to our side providing their bodies stay up to shape. Brad Crouch was a top tackler and disposal winner last year, something us as a team are really poor at.

As for having too many bigger bodies and becoming a bit big in the midfield with Cripps in there. It's something I have thought of myself but the solution is to play Cripps forward a lot more. Use Cripps how Richmond use Martin. At his size and running ability there is no reason Cripps couldn't play center half forward in a winning side.

Bring in Crouch and Wines or something like that. Send Cripps forward and McGovern back. That move ticks a lot of boxes for us. Crouch, Wines and the next best mid starting center with Cripps pinch hitting a lot in there and playing a lot forward. It's a good structure.

Harry McKay is on the do not trade list IMO. Guy is very talented and still developing. Still too light compared to where his body needs to be, he's a Tom Lynch type forward who is no where near as big and strong as Lynch but when he gets there he will be a very good player. Probably not a lot of guys on the do not trade list. McKay, Weitering, Curnow, Cripps and Walsh IMO are our do not trade list.

IF we were able to land a couple of good inside midfielders then we can potentially trade a few young midfielders. I think if we work things out properly and have a bit of demand for players we could potentially trade in Wines, buy Crouch for nothing, trade a players/picks for Papley and potentially still have currency to bring in or draft in more.

We're in an interesting situation where we have a lot of unproven youth who could go either ways, we haven't been in a position to trade players but we are now. A few months of good footy could change everything. Marchbank gets up and plays well, McGovern kills it in defence, Dow, Setterfield and/or Stocker play well in the seniors. O'Brien breaks into the seniors and plays well. We might get good offers for players we all of a sudden can afford to lose, we might get good players wanting to come to us.

 

[gbatman]

I sure wish I could handwave everything said in opposition to my arguments the way you seem to.

He's 20. It's not irrelevant to say that by the time they're twenty most footballers are in their infancy, let alone a way off their prime. He was showing good signs early in the season before being consigned to playing ahead of the ball, something which you yourself acknowledge is not his go.

I am amused by your dismissal of statistics as a measure of a player's quality at relevant stages of their careers when marked against their peers. There's more to the sport than possessions, sure, but my analysis was not based on solely possessions, was it?

I don't agree that I can't make judgement on his game because he has not played footy this year and he's 20. There are people out there getting paid to make judgement on players game when they are 16-18 years old. There are very important aspects of his game that need to improve for him to become a high level player. It's 50/50 as to whether they will improve and at his age when he gets playing again this year, if he's going to make it we should see it.

Kicking and pressure acts are those things which will hold him back from being elite. Kicking never really improves much for players, you can either kick or you can't. Improvement can be made but it's limited. Pressure acts can improve with fitness and training but again, it's an instinctive thing and I wouldn't expect huge improvement. It's possible we could see huge improvement but I'm not counting on that. Not ruling that out but if improvement is to be made there we will see it this year.

Statistics are garbage for a lot of things. You can amble after someone and it's still a pressure act or you can chase with intent and still get the same stat. You can get 30 possessions, handball at the wrong time to the wrong players, bomb it long most of the time and turn it over a bit and statistically it looks a great game when in reality it's mediocre.

Most of what is wrong with Dow's game is not recorded properly statistically. That is why it's not relevant.

He could be a good ball winner and that would be great and useful for the side but as for being elite he has some big boxes to tick. I would be really happy if he becomes a tough ball winner who knows how to use the ball within his limitations and develops his pressure acts. But I have my doubts.

 

[ajb72]

btw how good do the King boys look? There was talk (though to be fair most talk about trading is FOS) that SOS was trying to split our pick #1 to get picks for the King boys. Why I dont wish he had managed it, I cant say it wouldve upset me now.

 

[Gethelred]

I don't agree that I can't make judgement on his game because he has not played footy this year and he's 20. There are people out there getting paid to make judgement on players game when they are 16-18 years old. There are very important aspects of his game that need to improve for him to become a high level player. It's 50/50 as to whether they will improve and at his age when he gets playing again this year, if he's going to make it we should see it.

... but we can't, because there's no second 22 footy, which was the entirety of my issue with your argument.

Kicking and pressure acts...

which are both statistics, which you personally are deciding are relevant because they suit your argument.

are those things which will hold him back from being elite. Kicking never really improves much for players, you can either kick or you can't. Improvement can be made but it's limited. Pressure acts can improve with fitness and training but again, it's an instinctive thing and I wouldn't expect huge improvement. It's possible we could see huge improvement but I'm not counting on that. Not ruling that out but if improvement is to be made there we will see it this year.

Levi Casboult? His kicking has gone from being poor to being a very reliable field kick, and from a shocking goal kicker to a decent one.

Again, there are plenty of players whose kicking is subpar, but hasn't stopped them from being good players. And statistics can't only matter when you say so.

Statistics are garbage for a lot of things.

... until you want to use them.

You can amble after someone and it's still a pressure act or you can chase with intent and still get the same stat. You can get 30 possessions, handball at the wrong time to the wrong players, bomb it long most of the time and turn it over a bit and statistically it looks a great game when in reality it's mediocre.

Most of what is wrong with Dow's game is not recorded properly statistically. That is why it's not relevant.

And what I'm saying is that your judgements on Dow's play are out of date, based off his second half of his second year in which he was played out of position after he didn't have a preseason.

You have had no opportunity to update said impressions, because there has been no second 22 footy available for public viewing. My problem isn't what you're saying so much as it is what you are basing what you are saying on. You have your eyes as evidence from 8 months ago, but you're treating it as current.

He could be a good ball winner and that would be great and useful for the side but as for being elite he has some big boxes to tick. I would be really happy if he becomes a tough ball winner who knows how to use the ball within his limitations and develops his pressure acts. But I have my doubts.

You're entitled to them. Go read my first post, in which I asked you a question: you see, or you saw?

If you're seeing something I'm not, that's one thing; seeing implies that you're currently across what he's doing, how he's training, etc. If you possess no more information than the rest of us, your analysis is lazy.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Gethelred laying down the law.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Reckon Geelong will be after CCurnow.

Plenty of players there, that are on the way out and plenty of gaps will appear. Come the start of next year -
Hawkins-32, Ablett-36, Henderson-31, Jenkins-32, Selwood-33, Taylor-34, Tuohy-31, Steven-31, Dangerfield-31, Blicas-30, Stanley-30

Some of these players will go this year and some the next and it's not as though they have ready made replacements for several of these guys.
They're going to have to come in from outside.

Cut a long story short - Geelong will be after talent and quickly.

Have 3 first round draft picks this year too i believe.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

btw how good do the King boys look? There was talk (though to be fair most talk about trading is FOS) that SOS was trying to split our pick #1 to get picks for the King boys. Why I dont wish he had managed it, I cant say it wouldve upset me now.

If he had of got both Kings, mckay probably would have been traded and at the time i think we probably would have got well overs (like 2 picks in the top 10).

Its a sliding door moment.

 

[gbatman]

... but we can't, because there's no second 22 footy, which was the entirety of my issue with your argument.

which are both statistics, which you personally are deciding are relevant because they suit your argument.
Levi Casboult? His kicking has gone from being poor to being a very reliable field kick, and from a shocking goal kicker to a decent one.

Again, there are plenty of players whose kicking is subpar, but hasn't stopped them from being good players. And statistics can't only matter when you say so.
... until you want to use them.
And what I'm saying is that your judgements on Dow's play are out of date, based off his second half of his second year in which he was played out of position after he didn't have a preseason.

You have had no opportunity to update said impressions, because there has been no second 22 footy available for public viewing. My problem isn't what you're saying so much as it is what you are basing what you are saying on. You have your eyes as evidence from 8 months ago, but you're treating it as current.

You're entitled to them. Go read my first post, in which I asked you a question: you see, or you saw?

If you're seeing something I'm not, that's one thing; seeing implies that you're currently across what he's doing, how he's training, etc. If you possess no more information than the rest of us, your analysis is lazy.

You aren't getting it. I've seen Dow play plenty of 22 footy, not this year and I am saying I don't think that matters.

Pressure acts are a statistics, what I said is you get a stat regardless of the quality of the pressure act and the quality of a pressure act is everything. Pressure act stats are vague, you need to watch a player to see whether they are applying good pressure, that is the only way.

Casboult was always a reasonable field kick, his field kicking IMO hasn't changed, the big progress is his goal kicking. Field kicking and goal kicking are two very different things.

Dow's kicking is far worse than sub par. That's the problem.

I've explained exactly how statistics can be irrelevant, you have chosen to ignore that or you don't understand that. That's fine but it won't correlate to winning games of football. To break it down, it's not a good game if half of your possessions go to the opposition.

My judgments of Dow are dated the same as your judgements of Dow. I am quite comfortable making judgement from what I have seen. We have seen plenty of him to know what he can and can't do.

No one has seen him train recently, I think that's fair. I've seen a lot of footy, I've seen all his footy, that's not lazy analysis, it's a fair observation. I would think a lazy analysis is having not sat and watched all his games and to quickly jump on a few websites and look at stats and consolidate an opinion based on that.

Whether we like it or not Dow has some big hurdles to get over to become a good AFL player. I have identified two which I don't think many would argue against, there is certainly no evidence to prove I'm wrong. Not writing him off but he does have a long way to go, being injured is certainly not helping the cause.

 

[TheVapors]

I think we need to wait and see what Dow actually produces this year, in a position he’s comfortable in. I too had the perception that Dow is a poor kick, based mainly on what he was producing in the second half of last year, particularly his poor goal kicking.

On a quick YouTube review (not the best, I know) his kicking isn’t actually as bad as I remember. Geelong game from two years ago had footage of all of his possessions, and his kicking style was fine. Sure he turned a couple over, but they were mostly from trying to execute difficult kicks. His kicks were punchy with no shanks that I’d become used to, and potentially expected from Dow. Even his two shots on goal weren’t far off, with one just touched on the line.

In terms of his pressure, there have been times when I’ve watched and he’s appeared to have been spectating instead of reacting, particularly in ball-up situations where the ball is in dispute. It always irked me that he wasn’t more proactive. My perception on that changed slightly during our game against St Kilda.

We hunted the ball on the weekend, and we got turned over for it. St Kilda kept their shape at centre clearances and were usually able to find a free outlet as our players got sucked into the ball. It killed us in the first half. Looking back on Dow’s games under Bolton, I’m starting to wonder whether his lack of urgency during contested ball situations was more of a directive to keep our structure. Bolton was known as a very defensive minded coach who gave a lot of instruction. If Dow gets some midfield time this year, will he be more proactive under Teague and hunt the ball and player more

 

[Crippa#9]

I'd still enquire about Gallucci to be honest. Not sure why he hasn't played any games this year, but I think he could slot nicely into our best 22.

Fair call. Wouldn't necessarily say no to Milera either but doesn't play with a huge amount of hunger (which i suppose is a reflection of the team right now).

 

[Gethelred]

You aren't getting it. I've seen Dow play plenty of 22 footy, not this year and I am saying I don't think that matters.

... which is lazy. Again, from the cheap seats: he's twenty. He's a long way from his best footy. You're judging his game on how he played in his second season, when he was 19, playing in a position to which he is inexperienced.

It's the refuge of the fraud to restate their argument three times whilst refusing to respond to an oppositional point of view, then declare it isn't them that's the problem.

Pressure acts are a statistics, what I said is you get a stat regardless of the quality of the pressure act and the quality of a pressure act is everything. Pressure act stats are vague, you need to watch a player to see whether they are applying good pressure, that is the only way.

Casboult was always a reasonable field kick, his field kicking IMO hasn't changed, the big progress is his goal kicking. Field kicking and goal kicking are two very different things.

Dow's kicking is far worse than sub par. That's the problem.

You're picking and choosing still.

I've explained exactly how statistics can be irrelevant, you have chosen to ignore that or you don't understand that. That's fine but it won't correlate to winning games of football. To break it down, it's not a good game if half of your possessions go to the opposition.

I think it's interesting how determined you are to ignore that which doesn't adhere to your argument.

All of a sudden, it isn't about what you've said or what I've said; it's about me.

My judgments of Dow are dated the same as your judgements of Dow. I am quite comfortable making judgement from what I have seen. We have seen plenty of him to know what he can and can't do.

No one has seen him train recently, I think that's fair. I've seen a lot of footy, I've seen all his footy, that's not lazy analysis, it's a fair observation. I would think a lazy analysis is having not sat and watched all his games and to quickly jump on a few websites and look at stats and consolidate an opinion based on that.

Again, more people than just you have sat down and watched games of footy. Part of the good in this forum is that people are able to view the exact same thing in a myriad of ways. But it is genuinely lazy to ignore the things that don't adhere to your point of view.

What I said when I brought up his statistics were - if you recall - that he was ahead of similar aged midfielders for possessions and clearances, which are two of the metrics by which AFL midfielders are judged. This is not a single statistic, this is a collection of them, and they provide context to my argument that you are judging him falsely.

This is where the laziness comes into play.

Whether we like it or not Dow has some big hurdles to get over to become a good AFL player. I have identified two which I don't think many would argue against, there is certainly no evidence to prove I'm wrong. Not writing him off but he does have a long way to go, being injured is certainly not helping the cause.

... because you've not actually used evidence. Tis very difficult to prove wrong what you've failed to establish as more than opinion to start with.

I reiterate my question: you see, or you saw? All you have to do is to say that you saw, rendering your views like everyone elses; opinion, rather than fact or recent proof.

 

[HARKER]

Pressure acts are a statistics, what I said is you get a stat regardless of the quality of the pressure act and the quality of a pressure act is everything. Pressure act stats are vague, you need to watch a player to see whether they are applying good pressure, that is the only way.

Just on this point - Dow is not Cuningham, Walsh nor Fisher.

I don't think that he's incapable....quite the contrary....but somehow he didn't get involved in close as much s some of the other young guys.
Under instruction possibly?

Dow is not afraid of the hard stuff but somehow his game last year didn't show up a lot of it......from memory.

 

[Ricky Mott]

We have an abundance of young mids. Our inability to develop our youth is one of the clubs most pressing issues. I’m not pointing the figure at our current development coaches but our current line coaches who have been at the club for a number of years. They need to take a share of the responsibility of lack of development. Walsh, Dow,Stocker,Setters,JSOS,Kennedy,Cunningham,Fisher, O’Brien etc can all play but have limited or no time in the midfield.
Crippa and Ed Curnow play far to many minutes in our midfield. It was highlighted on the weekend when Crippa was taken out of the midfield and Setters had his opportunity. Every stoppage tap is hit to Cripps. It’s so obvious and we are so predictable.Cripps is our great strength but our greatest weakness.
Our young players all show promise when they first start and then fall away. Plenty of nab rising star nominees but the lack of development and proper coaching is a massive concern.

 

[DangerousD]

Harry McKay after 3 complete seasons: 35 games 50 goals @ 1.42

Tom Lynch after 4 complete seasons: 60 games 81 goals @ 1.35 per game

Josh Kennedy: 45 games 49 goals @ 1.088 per game

Jeremy Cameron: 73 games 183 goals @ 2.5 per game

Whilst Harry is copping something stick lately and he seems a little off, it’s important to compare him to other talls, most he is on par with or has covered, as for Cameron, he is a freak and I’m surprised there is not more talk of us chasing a player of his caliber.

Harry needs time to work on his craft or time to recover any injuries, he is a focal point of our side going forward and deserves a bit of slack.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Anyone who thinks players are 100% safe this year, i dont agree.
With SOS now gone and Nick Austin in the hot seat, i suggest we hold on...

Nick will see issues along with the rest off our board that they were against with SOS. The new kid on the block is about to make this team his instead of a team inherited.

 

[Gethelred]

Harry McKay after 3 complete seasons: 35 games 50 goals @ 1.42

Tom Lynch after 4 complete seasons: 60 games 81 goals @ 1.35 per game

Josh Kennedy: 45 games 49 goals @ 1.088 per game

Jeremy Cameron: 73 games 183 goals @ 2.5 per game

Whilst Harry is copping something stick lately and he seems a little off, it’s important to compare him to other talls, most he is on par with or has covered, as for Cameron, he is a freak and I’m surprised there is not more talk of us chasing a player of his caliber.

Harry needs time to work on his craft or time to recover any injuries, he is a focal point of our side going forward and deserves a bit of slack.

People love to forget about Cameron, largely because he plays for GWS.

He's as good as any running round, probably even a bit better.

 

[Jeremias]

Anyone who thinks players are 100% safe this year, i dont agree.
With SOS now gone and Nick Austin in the hot seat, i suggest we hold on...

Nick will see issues along with the rest off our board that they were against with SOS. The new kid on the block is about to make this team his instead of a team inherited.

Sure, but he's not going to be silly about things. He's not just going to come in and blow the place apart just because he now has an opportunity to "make this team his".

We spent big on H and Charlie in the draft and we've seen how talented they are.
We spent plenty on McGovern and we know what he can do, albeit not as consistently as we would like.

Ultimately those three have very clearly been earmarked to form the nucleus of a forward line together. A forward line that we've seen what, 7 times?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Harry McKay after 3 complete seasons: 35 games 50 goals @ 1.42

Tom Lynch after 4 complete seasons: 60 games 81 goals @ 1.35 per game

Josh Kennedy: 45 games 49 goals @ 1.088 per game

Jeremy Cameron: 73 games 183 goals @ 2.5 per game

Whilst Harry is copping something stick lately and he seems a little off, it’s important to compare him to other talls, most he is on par with or has covered, as for Cameron, he is a freak and I’m surprised there is not more talk of us chasing a player of his caliber.

Harry needs time to work on his craft or time to recover any injuries, he is a focal point of our side going forward and deserves a bit of slack.

I think what is important is when they break out.
Cameron as you say was a freak and was AA in his second season
Kennedy kicked 40 goals in his fifth and almost 60 in his sixth.
Lynch kicked 46 in his fourth.
We used to always compare McKay to Daniher who kicked 40 odd in his fourth and AA in his fifth.
McKay in his fifth season is well and truly at at a point where he should break out.

 

[El Topo]

I think we need to wait and see what Dow actually produces this year, in a position he’s comfortable in. I too had the perception that Dow is a poor kick, based mainly on what he was producing in the second half of last year, particularly his poor goal kicking.

It's mental thing IMO. Danger and Treloar both learned to play within their limits, no reason why Dow can't do the same.