2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

[Thetrader15]

yep think shortened games means he suddenly plays up to 80% TOG, and will provide incredible value and will be high on PPM.

Great, so now I have to find a place for Grundy, Sauce, Naismith and Nic Nat - this is going to take some shuffling

 

[Thetrader15]

Might do well for blokes like de goey who are more impact players through the guts but lack the tank... might end up with more mid time % and come out of nowhere as underpriced premos.

On another thing if the 1/4s are to be say 20mins would that mean that BE’s are still going to be adjusted on current formulas/prices? Or would they factor in the 1/3 less game time?? The higher the price the higher the price drop could mean starting lots of mid prices/rooks will put you well ahead of full priced premos when it comes to cash gen

Great question. If this is the case, then Grundy is an out for me.

 

[mullpig88]

Great question. If this is the case, then Grundy is an out for me.

There has never been a time all summer that I’ve entertained the idea of starting without the great man until now. Everything we’ve put into this preseason is out the window and we may as well just go ham on making our sides as unique as possible and hope that we end up on top when round 5 finishes in November!

 

[TheRednWhite]

Zerrett is the PPM king, I still can't squeeze him in though. Only starting Crae as the high-priced uber premo...Dunks finally left my team today. Just can't shake the feeling of him having a quietish start but he's guaranteed to go ham now.
Starting 4 underpriced mid premos + Crae
Cripps
Cogs
Titch
Pissed Off Viney

 

[TheRednWhite]

Pissed off Viney is value but is he worth the extra cash over someone like Hately? If Viney averages 100 then it's a no-brainer but I think he will be around 90 and Hately potentially 80-85?

 

[bl4ke]

Nic Nat might be a PPM king but there is no way he plays all 17 H&A games if he has to back up after 3/4 days.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

So after listening to the AFLPA media address, the players still want the option for 22 games to be a viable option during the season if there is the opportunity later in the year.

do we plan our teams on the hope the season may be extended or do we plan for 17 or less ?

 

[Piker]

Might do well for blokes like de goey who are more impact players through the guts but lack the tank... might end up with more mid time % and come out of nowhere as underpriced premos.

On another thing if the 1/4s are to be say 20mins would that mean that BE’s are still going to be adjusted on current formulas/prices? Or would they factor in the 1/3 less game time?? The higher the price the higher the price drop could mean starting lots of mid prices/rooks will put you well ahead of full priced premos when it comes to cash gen

I always understood that the BEs are based on the round-by-round magic number, which is calculated based on how many points are scored each round - so if scores drop across the board due to shorter quarters, the magic number and BEs would also fall.

The question then is whether some players fall by less or more than others - e.g. PPM monsters, or midfielders that no longer need to rest forward.

 

[bl4ke]

AFL has delayed its decision on round 1 until tomorrow

 

[bl4ke]

I always understood that the BEs are based on the round-by-round magic number, which is calculated based on how many points are scored each round - so if scores drop across the board due to shorter quarters, the magic number and BEs would also fall.

The question then is whether some players fall by less or more than others - e.g. PPM monsters, or midfielders that no longer need to rest forward.

Correct, If all scores are lower the magic number will change so BE's will be lower

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

“AFL Players' Association chief executive Paul Marsh said the league should reconsider its decision to reduce the men's season.
Mr Marsh said both AFL and AFLW players — as a collective — were prepared to continue the 2020 season as planned if given the green light.”

There’s still hope.....

 

[DynamiteDons]

although not huge relevance, but all of the last SSP players have been added to the game.

 

[happy_eagle]

Not drastically changing my side until we know more about the season structure and any fantasy adjustments to the magic number etc..


B: Laird, B.Smith, Houston, Docherty, Roberton, Cumming (Williams, Starcevich, Brander UTL)
C: Gaff, Oliver, Congilio, Mitchell, Rowell, Anderson, Green, Pickett (Robertson, Budarick)
R: Grundy, Naismith (Cameron)
F: Whitfield, Steven, Macpherson, Brayshaw, C.Jones, Taylor (King, Rankine)

12 Keepers
2 mid pricers
8 rookies

 

[JADED]

although not huge relevance, but all of the last SSP players have been added to the game.

It'll be hard for these blokes, or any fringe players to be knocking on the selection door with reserves comps postponed til Winter.
Basically, if not considered best 22, it'll be hard to get a look in with zero stats to prove you're worth a shot/in form etc.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Can anyone confirm whats happening with byes now and if a decision has been made on them?

Decision delayed until tomorrow regarding Round 1, we may have further info then too.
But assuming we are playing 17 rounds then I don't see why they would have byes.

if games are shortened... mid price madness with a war chest is the way i'm leaning

Yeah, all depends on how much are they shortened i guess. Good PPM becomes much more relevant. Less mid rotations will be needed and so the second stringers may not see a lot of onball action. Changes things quite a bit for me.

Shorter season and potentially shorter games makes maximising value for $ all the more important.

Still so many unknowns though e.g. if there are games with shorter turnarounds does that favour younger/fitter players? Or does the reduced total number of games / game minutes make more injury prone players more worth a punt?

Great, so now I have to find a place for Grundy, Sauce, Naismith and Nic Nat - this is going to take some shuffling

Good thing we had 4 ruck spots, oh wait...

 

[Thetrader15]

“AFL Players' Association chief executive Paul Marsh said the league should reconsider its decision to reduce the men's season.
Mr Marsh said both AFL and AFLW players — as a collective — were prepared to continue the 2020 season as planned if given the green light.”

There’s still hope.....

 

[Chris99]

Pick 2 from Wingard, Ceglar, Petrecca

 

[DynamiteDons]

Pick 2 from Wingard, Ceglar, Petrecca

Ceglar for sure! And then flip a coin for the other two. I’d have CP5 just

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Pick 2 from Wingard, Ceglar, Petrecca

Petracca for me. Wingard was on my watchlist but was underwhelming in Marsh 2 despite the role being there.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Pick 2 from Wingard, Ceglar, Petrecca

Well I have Ceglar and Petracca.

Feel like Wingard will miss games at some point, trades are more valuable this season with less time to upgrade your squad. He is the most expensive of the three and that 20k is massive for my side.

Petracca, although having surgery on his ACL is surprisingly durable. I think the hype is real this season.

Ceglar I feel will be consistent if given his role in the ruck all year and provides some nice upside based on how he went when given that role. I also have him there as insurance in case Naismith goes down.

 

[Thetrader15]

Well I have Ceglar and Petracca.

Feel like Wingard will miss games at some point, trades are more valuable this season with less time to upgrade your squad. He is the most expensive of the three and that 20k is massive for my side.

Petracca, although having surgery on his ACL is surprisingly durable. I think the hype is real this season.

Ceglar I feel will be consistent if given his role in the ruck all year and provides some nice upside based on how he went when given that role. I also have him there as insurance in case Naismith goes down.

I'm not a Trac fan, but the shorter quarters might be a good thing for him

 

[scottyt2]

Petracca should be a lock. Forget the 2nd marsh game, he still attended the highest cba's for Melbourne...plus the backs were chipping the ball around a lot that game which didn't suit the mids like petracca , oliver.

 

[Big Cox 88]

I hope they have made up. Need to be good team mates.

 

[DustyTiggers]

View attachment 841492
I hope they have made up. Need to be good team mates.

It’s all good, they’re isolating from each other now.

 

[DynamiteDons]

with all these shorter games talk. thinking of going from Macrae to Dunkley so i can save the cash... Thoughts?