AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[Prochard123]

This was a difficult game at the time to vote on and I reviewed it at length.

Ultimately felt Walsh was the dominant player on the ground throughout - and yes McKay does get the 6 so was also very good - but Walsh's contested work under the umpire's eye as well as putting the Blues insider 50 8 times (2nd on the ground overall) leans me to the 3.

My understanding is that in a loss, the losing midfielder would need to outperform by a fair margin to get the 3.

I'm also quite sure that you went into more detail than umpires did when revealing the game.

But sometimes in cases like this, I think you should just try to not overthink it. If you have a 2-3 top performing midfielders, if the difference isn't large, you give it to the best midfielder on the winning team.

 

[NYRB]

I also gave Walsh 3 here.

He was involved all night and very noticeable. He was constantly on the move with the ball in his hands, no stationary handballs in a chain or pointless sideways kicks across half back. Took ground every time and his work in traffic was a feature, weaving through congestion. Kicked a goal too.

I actually think Zorko was also better than McCluggage here, his tackling pressure stood out and he won a lot of ball from breaking up Carlton's handball chains, turning the flow of play around.

McCluggage was okay, he was in it most of the night and his weight of numbers was good but his influence on the match wasn't as pronounced as his stats indicate.

Devon Robertson had more influence than Clugg but probably didn't do enough.

McKay played well and is a chance, Curnow was just as good as McCluggage if not better but hard to see so many votes going to Carlton in a loss.

Walsh
Zorko
McCluggage/Robertson/McKay/Curnow

Personally I gave Walsh the 0 votes here. But I'd be pretty happy if he was able to snag the 3 here. McCluggage is still an unknown at this level- not yet a proven poller. That $1.22 could very well get turned over. As there were 5 players from memory who could get the BOG. But Clugg deserves to start favourite here.

 

[Prochard123]

Personally I gave Walsh the 0 votes here. But I'd be pretty happy if he was able to snag the 3 here. McCluggage is still an unknown at this level- not yet a proven poller. That $1.22 could very well get turned over. As there were 5 players from memory who could get the BOG. But Clugg deserves to start favourite here.

Walsh is in every one of my multis, I NEED him to do well.

Yet I have still given him 0 in this game.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

putting the Blues insider 50 8 times (2nd on the ground overall) leans me to the 3.

That round 13 match vs Adelaide, Jack Steele had 12 inside 50's. 3 more than the highest that Walsh, Wines and Oliver ever had all year. 5 more than anyone else in that match... for 0 votes on your predictor. What lost Steele all votes here? Curious

 

[Prochard123]

There's plenty of helpful posters contributing not only now, but during the season on this forum.

If you're going to have a crack at someone and judge their votes, post your own votes instead of contributing zilch to the conversation.

I'm not going to comment on others, but some of us are literally trying to hear some reasoning/justification as we may have missed something.

Relax mate

 

[dontlimitme]

walsh on 31 after round 21 is a ****ing wild count lol

 

[demon_fanatic]

did pointsbet have spreads on players last year?? NYRB i rekn youd know

 

[alhay6]

Everyone should just trust their own counts. Making tweaks based on other counts now for games that occurred weeks and months is useless. No need to question other's counts imo - good to see other perspectives but we shouldn't be questioning each other as we all have a common goal in mind to clean up the bookies!

 

[alhay6]

walsh on 31 after round 21 is a ******* wild count lol

This is the same man that correctly picked Fyfe the year that no one saw it coming. So anything is possible.

 

[Gift]

I see nothing wrong with questioning each others perspectives as long as you arent being mean about it. How else are you gonna learn how others see things and make sure your own count is more accurate.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Everyone should just trust their own counts. Making tweaks based on other counts now for games that occurred weeks and months is useless. No need to question other's counts imo - good to see other perspectives but we shouldn't be questioning each other as we all have a common goal in mind to clean up the bookies!

Nothing wrong with questioning the thought process to see what factors people value more when deciding their votes. Good to learn

 

[GroggSquad]

This is the same man that correctly picked Fyfe the year that no one saw it coming. So anything is possible.

Fyfe was hardly a shock. He was the best player in the game and known vote pig with little support at Freo.

 

[alhay6]

Nothing wrong with questioning the thought process to see what factors people value more when deciding their votes. Good to learn

I agree with this, but the beauty of the brownlow is that each game there are different umpires picking the votes so there is no 1 correct way to evaluate votes.

 

[Benjo_]

ROUND 18

FREO v GEEL
3 S Menegola (Geel)
2 C Guthrie (Geel)
1 P Dangerfield (Geel)

BRIS v RICH
3 J Riewoldt (Rich)
2 H McLuggage (Bris)
1 S Bolton (Rich)

ST K v PA
3 O Wines (PA)
2 J Steele (St K)
1 K Amon (PA)

GC v WB
3 J Macrae (WB)
2 T Miller (GC)
1 B Smith (WB)

HAW v MELB
3 T Mitchell (Haw)
2 C Petracca (Melb)
1 C Oliver (Melb)

NM v ESS
3 J Stringer (Ess)
2 D Parish (Ess)
1 Z Merrett (Ess)

COLL v CARL
3 S Walsh (Carl)
2 J DeGoey (Coll)
1 M Kennedy (Carl)

ADEL v WCE
3 J Cripps (WCE)
2 L Ryan (WCE)
1 B Keays (Adel)

GWS v SYD
3 L Parker (Syd)
2 T Papley (Syd)
1 L Franklin (Syd)

	LEADERBOARD
28​	S Walsh (Carl)
27​	O Wines (PA)
25​	C Petracca (Melb)
24​	C Oliver (Melb) T Miller (GC)*
23​	M Bontempelli (WB)

ROUND 19

PORT v COLL
3 W Drew (PA)
2 J DeGoey (Coll)
1 T Boak (PA)

NM v CARL
3 N Larkey (NM)
2 J Simpkin (NM)
1 J Stephenson (NM)

BRIS v GC
3 M Robinson (Bris)
2 J Daniher (Bris)
1 J Lyons (Bris)

WCE v ST K
3 M King (ST K)
2 D Sheed (WCE)
1 T Kelly (WCE)

WB v MELB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 J Macrae (WB)
1 C Oliver (Melb)

ADEL v HAW
3 R Laird (Adel)
2 R O'Brien (Adel)
1 T Mitchell (Haw)

SYD v FREO
3 J Kennedy (Syd)
2 I Heeney (Syd)
1 L Parker (Syd)

GEEL v RICH
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 T Hawkins (Geel)
1 I Smith (Geel)

ESS v GWS
3 L Whitfield (GWS)
2 T Green (GWS)
1 B Daniels (GWS)

	LEADERBOARD
28​	S Walsh (Carl)
27​	O Wines (PA)
26​	M Bontempelli (WB)
25​	C Petracca (Melb) O Oliver (Melb)
24​	T Miller (GC)*
22​	J Macrae (WB)

I'm sorry but I will eat absolutely eat a hat if Bont doesn't poll here vs the Suns. He went beast mode that day and the H2H with him and Touk was one of the best I've seen all year. I gave Bont 3, Touk 2, Macrae 1.

 

[alhay6]

Fyfe was hardly a shock. He was the best player in the game and known vote pig with little support at Freo.

No one had Fyfe near 33 votes!

 

[5 Bucks]

Fyfe was hardly a shock. He was the best player in the game and known vote pig with little support at Freo.

Walsh has little support at Carlton and he might not have the absolute class or power of Bont or Petracca but if someone told me they think he's the best player in the league I wouldn't argue. He's a special player.

 

[alhay6]

Just interesting that TheJanuaryMan count is being grilled more than any other count posted on here. Seems like people want to prove something by picking something that he didn't.

 

[alhay6]

Fyfe was hardly a shock. He was the best player in the game and known vote pig with little support at Freo.

Danger was a $2.50 going into the count while Fyfe was closer to $9, so a bit of revisionist history here.

 

[Prochard123]

I'm sorry but I will eat absolutely eat a hat if Bont doesn't poll here vs the Suns. He went beast mode that day and the H2H with him and Touk was one of the best I've seen all year. I gave Bont 3, Touk 2, Macrae 1.

That was my next doubt, was literally about to type the exact thing.

I also gave Bont 3 and Touk 2. Look you can make an argument for Bont 2 votes due to his clanger count.

But the clanger count includes not only poor disposals, but also free kick against (he had 5), and other fumbles etc. He didn't have anywhere close to 15 turnovers.

 

[Suncraze]

Can everyone just let TJM post his count.

 

[5 Bucks]

I'm sorry but I will eat absolutely eat a hat if Bont doesn't poll here vs the Suns. He went beast mode that day and the H2H with him and Touk was one of the best I've seen all year. I gave Bont 3, Touk 2, Macrae 1.

Another match that I could be totally wrong about, but I've gone:

3 Smith
2 Macrae
1 Bont

Miller was good but too many handballs that lead to absolutely nothing I reckon, not damaging.

Baz was running around with the ball in his hands with the mullet flowing all day long. Admittedly I was only half paying attention to this one but he stood out to me.

Macrae actually hit the scoreboard with 2.0 which is very rare for him and he will definitely get something.

 

[TheRednWhite]

Hi lads,

Not sure if anyone has done so already, but I have done a count based on coaches votes and also the SB 3 vote game odds.

Name	AFLCA votes	SB odds	Average
C Oliver (MEL)	26​	36​	31​
J Steele (STK)	27.5​	32.5​	30​
M Bontempelli (WBD)	28.5​	31​	29.75​
O Wines (PTA)	23​	32​	27.5​
C Petracca (MEL)	18.66​	26.5​	22.58​
S Walsh (CAR)	19​	26​	22.5​
T Miller (GCS)	23​	22​	22.5​
D Parish (ESS)	21​	23​	22​
Z Merrett (ESS)	20​	23​	21.5​
T Mitchell (HAW)	15.5​	25.5​	20.5​
T Boak (PTA)	13.33​	24​	18.665​
R Laird (ADE)	15.5​	19.5​	17.5​
H McCluggage (BRI)	17​	18​	17.5​
C Guthrie (GEE)	15.5​	19​	17.25​
D Mundy (FRE)	18​	16​	17​
L Parker (SYD)	11.33​	21.5​	16.415​
J Lyons (BRI)	11.5​	21​	16.25​
J Macrae (WBD)	9​	20.5​	14.75​
J Kelly (GWS)	10.83​	18​	14.415​
D Martin (RIC)	12​	14​	13​
D Zorko (BRI)	13​	13​	13​
M Gawn (MEL)	14​	12​	13​
J De Goey (COL)	11.5​	13.5​	12.5​
P Dangerfield (GEE)	11​	13​	12​
B Cunnington (NM)	11​	11.5​	11.25​
T Kelly (WCE)	10.5​	11​	10.75​
T Walker (ADE)	11​	10.5​	10.75​
C Mills (SYD)	8.83​	12.5​	10.665​
T Taranto (GWS)	10.08​	11​	10.54​
J Stringer (ESS)	10​	11​	10.5​
I Heeney (SYD)	10​	10​	10​
S Darcy (FRE)	10.5​	9.5​	10​
D Sheed (WCE)	6.33​	13.5​	9.915​
C Wingard (HAW)	10​	9.5​	9.75​
K Amon (PTA)	9​	10​	9.5​
J O'Meara (HAW)	10.5​	8​	9.25​
T Stewart (GEE)	11.33​	7​	9.165​
N Naitanui (WCE)	12.33​	6​	9.165​
A Brayshaw (FRE)	7​	10.5​	8.75​
L Franklin (SYD)	7.83​	9.5​	8.665​
J Hopper (GWS)	10.25​	7​	8.625​
J Selwood (GEE)	7​	9​	8​
A Gaff (WCE)	5​	10​	7.5​
N Fyfe (FRE)	6​	9​	7.5​
M Duncan (GEE)	9​	6​	7.5​
C Salem (MEL)	9.83​	5​	7.415​

Coaches really hated Macrae and Parker this year.....
But based on average between the 2 counts, I really like the top 5/10/20.

Might add to this by including the Betfair prediction

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

It’s like everyone expects TJM to have the same votes as they do. What good is this thread if we all follow the pack and all our counts are the same?

It’s good to see and have variation in counts/different opinions etc.

Remember that the people who decide these votes gave Marley Williams

2

Marley Williams

Age

31

Ht

181cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.7

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.4

4star

MG

276.2

4star

D

12.5

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

MG

195.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

the 3 votes in 2018 from 12 touches. The subjective nature of the count makes it impossible to predict 100% correctly.

 

[Michael Scarn]

It’s like everyone expects TJM to have the same votes as they do. What good is this thread if we all follow the pack and all our counts are the same?

It’s good to see and have variation in counts/different opinions etc.

Remember that the people who decide these votes gave Marley Williams the 3 votes in 2018 from 12 touches. The subjective nature of the count makes it impossible to predict 100% correctly.

Yep exactly. There's a big difference between discussing certain matches/counts and just picking apart another for the sake of it. TJM isn't going to re-do his count because someone disagrees with the subjective votes

 

[dontlimitme]