AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

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The broadcasters on the night:

"Seven’s coverage begins at 7.00pm AEST Sunday on Channel 7 and 7mate and will be hosted by Hamish McLachlan and Jacqui Felgate, while Basil Zempilas, Abbey Holmes and Amberley Lobo will take fans inside the AFL’s official count in Perth throughout the night."
 
The broadcasters on the night:

"Seven’s coverage begins at 7.00pm AEST Sunday on Channel 7 and 7mate and will be hosted by Hamish McLachlan and Jacqui Felgate, while Basil Zempilas, Abbey Holmes and Amberley Lobo will take fans inside the AFL’s official count in Perth throughout the night."

Jacque Felgate green 👗
 
Anyone confident about Luke Parker, Cam Guthrie and Jarryd Lyons in the tope 20? And how many votes each? Thanks
 
For anyone wondering, here is the top 25 from TheJanuaryMan's count. Thanks for your work mate. Can't believe its been nearly 15 years since I started doing Brownlow analysis.

View attachment 1238316
Did you do a recount based on TJMs votes? I've noticed some discrepancies. Getting Wines on 29 Titchell on 24 Merett on 21 Boak on 19 Tim Kelly on 13. Am I missing something here?
 

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TEAM LEADERS:
Adelaide
Laird 17
Keays 14
Walker 5

COLLINGWOOD
DeGoey 15
Pendlebury 6
Adams 5

GOLD COAST
Miller 27
Anderson 7
Greenwood 4

HAWTHORN
Mitchell 27
O'Meara 8
Wingard 7

PA
Wines 30
Boak 22
Amon 9
Aliir 7


WCE
Kelly 14
Gaff 11
Sheed 11

WB
Bontempelli 26
Macrae 25
Smith 7
Liberatore 4
Treloar 4

I just went through TJM's count and have added some of the other interesting players in bold above.
 
No one had Fyfe near 33 votes!

Fyfe wasn't far fetched in 2019, I posted I had him in the 30s and that he was the value bet IMO a week or two before the count. I know guys who used to be on the private forum were smashing him @ 9s that year in round 21. The same people have hit Steele when he was @ 9s this year (probably why his $7 now), although not as confident as 2019, but he was the value bet at $9. Every bit a chance as Bont, Wines and Oliver IMO, probably more so than a couple of those 3.
 
odds are halved if tied with one player, so if you took $2 for a top 20 player I think you only get 1.50?? its called a dead heat rule, tied with 2 other players you'll only get 1.33 for a $2 odds... correct me if im wrong guys

Don't know if it's already been said but half of a $2 div is $1 and a third is $0.67
 
Tempted to include steele in my main top 5/10/20 multi but really don't wanna be sweating until the final round for a 3 vote game 😅
 
I used his team votes that he posted for the leaderboard.
Interesting, I think the final counts might be wrong based on the round by round. Can someone check Tom Mitchell for example. I'm getting him on 24 not the 27 that TJM has included.
 
fu** that sweat tho hahaha.
Though he is $1.05 for 3 votes in the last round
In 2020 he was strong fave for the 3 in the final round which would've had him take out 2nd place for some huge collects before Rowan Marshall stole it from him. Once again, Marshall's the threat. Wouldn't take unders.
 
Want to put a good word out to Before You Bet. They have the balls to make predictions for 3 vote weighted matches.

Their success rate at predicting the leader outright with weighted 3.0 vote matches in :

2019: 115/159= 72.33%
2020: 78/127=61.42 %

Combined record for last 2 years: 67.48%.

In predicting with a clear outright favourite with the 3.0 weighted vote , 241 of those 286 go on to poll a 2 or 3 Votes on Brownlow Night. (84.23%)

Percentages might be a tad low for the 3.0 vote outright predictions but they are double the sample of say Betfair predictor.
 
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