AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[demon_fanatic]

could anything go wrong with a 1.38 multi of Boak (no wines), Mundy, Dusty and Guthrie... I went hugely negative on all four whilst positive on their slight dangers in Amon, Brayshaw, Bolton and Danger and still had each one 2-4 votes at least clear.... thinking of loading up haha yes the values gone but it looks airtight

 

[GroggSquad]

Danger was a $2.50 going into the count while Fyfe was closer to $9, so a bit of revisionist history here.

Fyfe had a great year - it was hardly an upset. I had money on Fyfe personally, but I certainly don't consider myself an elite Brownlow oracle for picking it.

Maybe Vic-bias skewed the odds?

 

[DeliciousBagel0]

could anything go wrong with a 1.38 multi of Boak (no wines), Mundy, Dusty and Guthrie... I went hugely negative on all four whilst positive on their slight dangers in Amon, Brayshaw, Bolton and Danger and still had each one 2-4 votes at least clear.... thinking of loading up haha yes the values gone but it looks airtight

I think I'm being paranoid but I feel like I can see Brayshaw knocking off Mundy

 

[Geeves Train]

Anyone asking the “why did you give 3 votes here” question.

Other than hearing “because I thought they were the most likely player the umpire would give the 3 to” what else are you expecting to hear?

You may disagree, and could very well be right, but isn’t that the point we all do counts?

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Anyone asking the “why did you give 3 votes here” question.

Other than hearing “because I thought they were the most likely player the umpire would give the 3 to” what else are you expecting to hear?

You may disagree, and could very well be right, but isn’t that the point we all do counts?

A reason as to why?
ie -
Exploded out of contests - as per xx clearances
Lifted when the game was on the line
Greater impact with their disposals
High tackles and cont. pos in a wet game

Genuinely interested to see if I've overlooked key factors that other's might have noticed

 

[Geeves Train]

A reason as to why?
ie -
Exploded out of contests - as per xx clearances
Lifted when the game was on the line
Greater impact with their disposals
High tackles and cont. pos in a wet game

Genuinely interested to see if I've overlooked key factors that other's might have noticed

Fair enough, this makes sense

 

[EFL Boy]

Can people in here stop questioning @TheJanuaryMan’s count. How are all of the leeches/draftee’s supposed to see his count if it’s not all posted at once. It will just create more work posting a link to the previous page for the rest of us.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Looks like he's saving the suspense for tomorrow for the final rounds. But you can pretty much work out the rest from the last 2 rounds. I do agree with him that this count is looking to be very high for a lot of players. haha oooo soon as I post that, WHAM

Wow two players from the same team to share the medal, wouldn't that be something!

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 22

RICH v GWS
3 T Taranto (GWS)
2 J Hopper (GWS)
1 J Kelly (GWS)

HAW v WB
3 D Howe (Haw)
2 C Wingard (Haw)
1 T Mitchell (Gaw)

PA v CARL
3 T Boak (PA)
2 K Amon (PA)
1 A Aliir (PA)

GEEL v STK
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 S Menegola (Geel)
1 C Guthrie (Geel)

BRIS v COLL
3 C Cameron (Bris)
2 L Neale (Bris)
1 H McLuggage (Bris)

NM v SYD
3 W Hayward (Syd)
2 L Parker (Syd)
1 T Hickey (Syd)

MELB v ADEL
3 B Fritsch (Melb)
2 C Petracca (Melb)
1 P Seedsman (Adell)

GC v ESS
3 J Stringer (Ess)
2 D Parish (Ess)
1 N Hind (Ess)

FREO v WCE
3 C Serong (Freo)
2 L Ryan (Freo)
1 D Mundy (Freo)

	LEADERBOARD
32​	C Petracca (Melb)
31​	S Walsh (Carl)
29​	C Oliver (Melb)
28​	O Wines (PA)
27​	T Miller (GC)*
26​	M Bontempelli (WB) T Mitchell (Haw)
25​	J Steele (St K) D Parish (Ess)
24​	J Macrae (WB)

 

[Jobe Watson]

Why do people who can't even be bothered to do their own count come in here and try to dispute vote totals based off nothing more than "team didn't win many games so he can't poll well lolz" and gut feels?

Do your own tally and then you can have an opinion, you lazy pricks.

 

[MissBlueBagger93]

Don't have the nous to do my own count, I commend all who do. Though personally, I'm hoping TJM is onto something...

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 23

PA v WB
3 T Boak (PA)
2 O Wines (PA)
1 J Macrae (WB)

RICH v HAW
3 C Wingard (Haw)
2 J O'Meara (Haw)
1 T Mitchell (Haw)

SYD v GC
3 L Franklin (Syd)
2 J Dawson (Syd)
1 L Parker (Syd)

BRIS v WCE
3 N Natanui (WCE)
2 L Neale (Bris)
1 D Rich (Bris)

MELB v GEEL
3 C Oliver (Melb)
2 M Gawn (Melb)
1 J Selwood (Melb)

CARL v GWS
3 C Ward (GWS)
2 E Curnow (Carl)
1 J Kelly (GWS)

ST K v FREO
3 J Steele (St K)
2 R Marshall (St K)
1 C Sharman (St K)

ESS v COLL
3 J Stringer (Ess)
2 D Smith (Ess)
1 Z Merrett (Ess)

ADEL v NM
3 B Keays (Adel)
2 R Laird (Adel)
1 R Sloane (Adel)

	LEADERBOARD
32​	C Petracca (Melb) C Oliver (Melb)
31​	S Walsh (Carl)
30​	O Wines (PA)
28​	J Steele (St K)
27​	T Miller (GC)* T Mitchell (Haw)
26​	M Bontempelli (WB)
25​	D Parish (Ess) J Macrae (WB)

 

[NonPhixion]

Don't have the nous to do my own count, I commend all who do. Though personally, I'm hoping TJM is onto something...

View attachment 1238282

Hey - I want a small commission

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

TEAM LEADERS:
Adelaide
Laird 17
Keays 14

BRISBANE
McLuggage 20
Lyons 13

CARLTON
Walsh 31
McKay 6
Curnow 5

COLLINGWOOD
DeGoey 15
Pendlebury 6

ESSENDON
Parish 25
Merrett 23

FREMANTLE
Mundy 15
Brayshaw 14

GEELONG
C Guthrie 17
Hawkins 11

GOLD COAST
Miller 27
Anderson 7

GWS
Kelly 14
Taranto 13

HAWTHORN
Mitchell 27
O'Meara 8

MELBOURNE
Oliver 32
Petracca 32

NM
Cunnington 12
Simpkin 12

PA
Wines 30
Boak 22

RICH
Martin 14
Riewoldt 7

ST KILDA
Steele 28
Billings 7
Crouch 7

SYDNEY
Parker 22
Mills 11

WCE
Kelly 14
Gaff 11

WB
Bontempelli 26
Macrae 25

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Righto....there wasn't time to answer questions during the posting but a few points.

- At the end of the day my count is just my opinion. That is all. Like everyone else's. Will it get all votes right? Will it correctly predict everything? No. It is a system which I've used successfully since it correctly predicted Judd's win in 2010 but of course it won't get it all right.

- I'm not going to go indepth into my system publicly but it takes into accounts numerous factors on the day. Proven statistical indicators and triggers. Various impact points in a match. It does NOT use Coaches Votes/Supercoach scores/my own team allegiances.

- Some votes may look unusual. So be it. They may not prove correct and like all models - will get things wrong. We all see things differently but there are certain KPI's which have been proven year after year in this system hence why a strong ROI on winners/team votes/leaders at certain rounds/handicaps etc.

- I chuckled at a few posters questioning Jack Steele

9

Jack Steele

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.9

5star

K

8.7

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

6.8

5star

CL

3.6

5star

D

21.3

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

16.8

4star

K

5.0

2star

HB

11.8

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

6.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

's votes as he is my second best result overall - but that has zilch to do with how I vote. As soon as you watch a game thinking about your wagers then you may as well make a count that will please you by giving that player votes every week. Take the financial side out of this otherwise it is a quick path to disappointment.

- As I say year after year - do your own counts IN REAL TIME. It is no good pondering a game in May when you are in September. Do your counts in real time and identify what you perceive as value along the way.

- Lastly please - if you choose to use my system and make some dollars from it - then please donate to Beyond Blue. I was close to not releasing a count here this year but a few things changed my mind on that. We lose 7 blokes a day in Australia to suicide. That is 7 too many. Please throw something to Beyond Blue as they do a wonderful job in our community and deserve our support.

Donate - Beyond Blue - Beyond Blue

Your donation to Beyond Blue will support our mission to improve mental health, and help the lives of those affected by anxiety, depression and suicide.

www.beyondblue.org.au

Good luck all.

 

[demon_fanatic]

TEAM LEADERS:
Adelaide
Laird 17
Keays 14

BRISBANE
McLuggage 20
Lyons 13

CARLTON
Walsh 31
McKay 6
Curnow 5

COLLINGWOOD
DeGoey 15
Pendlebury 6

ESSENDON
Parish 25
Merrett 23

FREMANTLE
Mundy 15
Brayshaw 14

GEELONG
C Guthrie 17
Hawkins 11

GOLD COAST
Miller 27
Anderson 7

GWS
Kelly 14
Taranto 13

HAWTHORN
Mitchell 27
O'Meara 8

MELBOURNE
Oliver 32
Petracca 32

NM
Cunnington 12
Simpkin 12

PA
Wines 30
Boak 22

RICH
Martin 14
Riewoldt 7

ST KILDA
Steele 28
Billings 7
Crouch 7

SYDNEY
Parker 22
Mills 11

WCE
Kelly 14
Gaff 11

WB
Bontempelli 26
Macrae 25

haha mundy just sneaks into the top 20 with 15, I think 14 is a tie dead heat deduction according to this count

 

[NonPhixion]

TEAM LEADERS:
Adelaide
Laird 17
Keays 14

BRISBANE
McLuggage 20
Lyons 13

CARLTON
Walsh 31
McKay 6
Curnow 5

COLLINGWOOD
DeGoey 15
Pendlebury 6

ESSENDON
Parish 25
Merrett 23

FREMANTLE
Mundy 15
Brayshaw 14

GEELONG
C Guthrie 17
Hawkins 11

GOLD COAST
Miller 27
Anderson 7

GWS
Kelly 14
Taranto 13

HAWTHORN
Mitchell 27
O'Meara 8

MELBOURNE
Oliver 32
Petracca 32

NM
Cunnington 12
Simpkin 12

PA
Wines 30
Boak 22

RICH
Martin 14
Riewoldt 7

ST KILDA
Steele 28
Billings 7
Crouch 7

SYDNEY
Parker 22
Mills 11

WCE
Kelly 14
Gaff 11

WB
Bontempelli 26
Macrae 25

 

[BigInsideMid]

Righto....there wasn't time to answer questions during the posting but a few points.

- At the end of the day my count is just my opinion. That is all. Like everyone else's. Will it get all votes right? Will it correctly predict everything? No. It is a system which I've used successfully since it correctly predicted Judd's win in 2010 but of course it won't get it all right.

- I'm not going to go indepth into my system publicly but it takes into accounts numerous factors on the day. Proven statistical indicators and triggers. Various impact points in a match. It does NOT use Coaches Votes/Supercoach scores/my own team allegiances.

- Some votes may look unusual. So be it. They may not prove correct and like all models - will get things wrong. We all see things differently but there are certain KPI's which have been proven year after year in this system hence why a strong ROI on winners/team votes/leaders at certain rounds/handicaps etc.

- I chuckled at a few posters questioning Jack Steele's votes as he is my second best result overall - but that has zilch to do with how I vote. As soon as you watch a game thinking about your wagers then you may as well make a count that will please you by giving that player votes every week. Take the financial side out of this otherwise it is a quick path to disappointment.

- As I say year after year - do your own counts IN REAL TIME. It is no good pondering a game in May when you are in September. Do your counts in real time and identify what you perceive as value along the way.

- Lastly please - if you choose to use my system and make some dollars from it - then please donate to Beyond Blue. I was close to not releasing a count here this year but a few things changed my mind on that. We lose 7 blokes a day in Australia to suicide. That is 7 too many. Please throw something to Beyond Blue as they do a wonderful job in our community and deserve our support.

Donate - Beyond Blue - Beyond Blue

Your donation to Beyond Blue will support our mission to improve mental health, and help the lives of those affected by anxiety, depression and suicide.

www.beyondblue.org.au

Good luck all.

Appreciate the effort you went into. Also, big thanks for starting this forum way back in March. Looking forward to the count and good luck.

 

[Tigers04]

First count I’ve seen Lyons miss the top 20, kelly also a tie for 20th

can only hope those 2 poll a few more votes to get into that 20,
Degoey and brayshaw can piss right off

 

[FootyStar#1]

For anyone wondering, here is the top 25 from TheJanuaryMan's count. Thanks for your work mate. Can't believe its been nearly 15 years since I started doing Brownlow analysis.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

First count I’ve seen Lyons miss the top 20, kelly also a tie for 20th

Lyons is one I'm prepared to be wrong on. He has been in the system a long time and never polled more than 13 though. McLuggage and Zorko look dangers to him for mine.

 

[invisible_]

Lots of good analysis in here but let’s take a moment to settle down and appreciate the one untapped market that needs to be discussed.
Brownlow bingo - word to be mentioned on broadcast: $3 - “Armaguard”


2015 - 4:30 in



2014: 7:35 in


2006: 6:30 in



Even way back in 1995 they had essentially the same speech(2:10 in)


If anyone has footage of last few years counts I’d love to see if they still use the exact same script, but with armaguard still delivering votes I don’t see anyway it’ll change

 

[Tigers04]

Lyons is one I'm prepared to be wrong on. He has been in the system a long time and never polled more than 13 though. McLuggage and Zorko look dangers to him for mine.

Let’s just hope he polls a few more, I was looking at your count intrigued and didn’t see Lyons name too much, couple of games I personally feel he could poll higher, end of the day it’s just an opinion though. If anything I’m expecting mccluggage to be the menegola of last year and underpoll

 

[NYRB]

Another match that I could be totally wrong about, but I've gone:

3 Smith
2 Macrae
1 Bont

Miller was good but too many handballs that lead to absolutely nothing I reckon, not damaging.

Baz was running around with the ball in his hands with the mullet flowing all day long. Admittedly I was only half paying attention to this one but he stood out to me.

Macrae actually hit the scoreboard with 2.0 which is very rare for him and he will definitely get something.

Agree with the 3 players but the order is subjective to those who watched it.

Lots of good analysis in here but let’s take a moment to settle down and appreciate the one untapped market that needs to be discussed.
Brownlow bingo - word to be mentioned on broadcast: $3 - “Armaguard”
View attachment 1238319View attachment 1238321

2015 - 4:30 in



2014: 7:35 in


2006: 6:30 in



Even way back in 1995 they had essentially the same speech(2:10 in)


If anyone has footage of last few years counts I’d love to see if they still use the exact same script, but with armaguard still delivering votes I don’t see anyway it’ll change

Is Armaguard commonly mentioned when in WA? live there for a period of time, never heard people bring up the term that often.

 

[DeliciousBagel0]

Lots of good analysis in here but let’s take a moment to settle down and appreciate the one untapped market that needs to be discussed.
Brownlow bingo - word to be mentioned on broadcast: $3 - “Armaguard”
View attachment 1238319View attachment 1238321

2015 - 4:30 in



2014: 7:35 in


2006: 6:30 in



Even way back in 1995 they had essentially the same speech(2:10 in)


If anyone has footage of last few years counts I’d love to see if they still use the exact same script, but with armaguard still delivering votes I don’t see anyway it’ll change

Paying $5 for them to say 'Mark McGowan' during the broadcast, surely overs