AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

How about we get a few of us to go and watch 2020's games. Since there is only 153 it will be easier and we can award the votes and see how accurate they were. 16 minute quarters too, we wouldn't need that much man power to get through it all. Then we can watch the 198 for this season with more confidence.

I’d suggest we scrap rewatching all 198 games this season and just rewatch all of North’s games this season 9 times over. Narrow the value down to a single teams market for our best chance to clean up the bookies

 

[Geeves Train]

It’s 11:48pm man. What would you like me to do? Wake the guy up who has that information. We have had 4 purchases today so far. So it looks like a couple have gone ahead with it. Maybe they can let you all know how the extensive spreadsheet looks.

Weird you know the exact number of purchases within the last 24 hours but not results from a year ago.

 

[AjsGuns]

The best value for me personally in the markets atm is steele top 3 $2.5 and Mccluggage top 20 $2
Thoughts anyone?

I really like Steele top 3 @ $2.50 and have hit it - so I think he comes top 3. With that said, as everyone is aware the top 4 is very tight, so probably not a hugely supported bet on here. Not as big on Clugga @ $2. I got on him @ $3 around round 19, and in those 5 weeks he probably only polls in round 22, yet his odds decreased by a considerable margin. Yet many others like Parker etc came home strongly. Personally, would avoid @ $2.

 

[Mrose45]

Weird you know the exact number of purchases within the last 24 hours but not results from a year ago.

. Because of the website

 

[invisible_]

what is there to contribute where there is so many variables during the season, injuries, suspensions etc.. No point talking about what if’s until the season is actually completed and the data is there to look over

Laird top 20 $5
Steele top 20 $2.40
T.Mitchell top 20 $3

$40 boosted for all three

Yep can't see any point in betting until the season is over. No value available at all and risk is far too high to make a 'smart calculated decision'

 

[jajawinx]

I’ve done my studying, now time to ask you legends: out of the following players, who do you think are the two safest locks for top 20 (I know anything’s possible). My personal preference tells me Lyons and Parker will both be in the 20, kelly and Guthrie are touch and go, and I have mcgluggage missing the 20 by a vote or two.

 

[dontlimitme]

Yep can't see any point in betting until the season is over. No value available at all and risk is far too high to make a 'smart calculated decision'

someone gave a wines top 20 at 4.4 and parker at 3.10 earlier in the season and i multi'd that up. Whoever that was i forget but i love you lots

 

[AjsGuns]

I’ve done my studying, now time to ask you legends: out of the following players, who do you think are the two safest locks for top 20 (I know anything’s possible). My personal preference tells me Lyons and Parker will both be in the 20, kelly and Guthrie are touch and go, and I have mcgluggage missing the 20 by a vote or two.

Boak and Parker for me from the available market. Not including Merret who is $1.08 and safer than both Boak and Parker imo.

 

[Geeves Train]

I’ve done my studying, now time to ask you legends: out of the following players, who do you think are the two safest locks for top 20 (I know anything’s possible). My personal preference tells me Lyons and Parker will both be in the 20, kelly and Guthrie are touch and go, and I have mcgluggage missing the 20 by a vote or two.

Bont and Wines

 

[jajawinx]

Bont and Wines

Top 20…

 

[Geeves Train]

Top 20…

Lock em in

 

[briza95]

I really like Steele top 3 @ $2.50 and have hit it - so I think he comes top 3. With that said, as everyone is aware the top 4 is very tight, so probably not a hugely supported bet on here. Not as big on Clugga @ $2. I got on him @ $3 around round 19, and in those 5 weeks he probably only polls in round 22, yet his odds decreased by a considerable margin. Yet many others like Parker etc came home strongly. Personally, would avoid @ $2.

Yeah its probaby not a lock by a long shot but he was the best value i could find for top 20 markets post season haha. He was playing superb when neale was out during rounds 5-10 tho, hopefully he can bank around 13-14 votes by then as he will find it tough to pick up votes in the 2nd half when he went back to his wing role.
What are your thoughts on merrett for top 10 for $2.5? I have him 11th on 23 votes, probably fighting with parish, boak and macrae for the last two spots in the top 10

 

[Prochard123]

Yep can't see any point in betting until the season is over. No value available at all and risk is far too high to make a 'smart calculated decision'

That is absolutely amazing, which round was this?

 

[TheGamblor]

I’ve done my studying, now time to ask you legends: out of the following players, who do you think are the two safest locks for top 20 (I know anything’s possible). My personal preference tells me Lyons and Parker will both be in the 20, kelly and Guthrie are touch and go, and I have mcgluggage missing the 20 by a vote or two.

Merrett and Boak are the biggest locks, am also very confident on Guthrie had a lot of standout games he should be shorter than his current price. Have gone a little cold on Parker, had a lot of questionable 1-2 vote games needed for him to poll well, he could burn some come the night.

 

[TheGamblor]

Also lads I've spent an hour of my time to collect a dozen leaderboards across multiple free to access sources, I'll be selling my extensive findings via DM so send me your best offer, highest offer gets it $$$

 

[5 Bucks]

After watching all of Port Adelaide's matches over the last couple of weeks I'm absolutely certain that Wines will not win.

Gotta be amongst the most ineffective players in the league by foot. 30+ with half contested is all well and good but none of his kicking is impressive. Weight of numbers counts for plenty but he's not on Tom Mitchell's level, it's difficult to win a brownlow with handballs alone. 30m gained from a hack kick clearance that usually leads to nothing isn't going to get it done.

Brownlow medalists do it by picking up 3's. This bloke is relying on too many 1-2 vote games and I can see him not getting a vote at all in plenty of them, especially earlier in the season.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

I’m saying you are willing to go back and do that all over again when it has already been done for you.
Let me put it this way. Would you work at your job for 6 months and do it for free? No you wouldn’t. Because you provide your work with a service. Just as we have done here with the package. Many months of work and planning has gone into this. A service that is provided to the person that wants a better understanding of the count. Good luck all

But it’s not working for free, the time we spend gives us data to make money. Plus who doesn’t enjoy watching footy? Who considers that work?

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

I’m saying you are willing to go back and do that all over again when it has already been done for you.
Let me put it this way. Would you work at your job for 6 months and do it for free? No you wouldn’t. Because you provide your work with a service. Just as we have done here with the package. Many months of work and planning has gone into this. A service that is provided to the person that wants a better understanding of the count. Good luck all

I've got a tip for you.

Don't sell it to the SportsBet Mole. It lurks on here all the time.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

That is absolutely amazing, which round was this?

About round 13

 

[Crownlow]

Thanks! What if I change the question, and limit the criteria to non-Rowell midfielders only?

Who were the most disappointing mids on brownlow night?

I reckon Jack billing was 1.05 a couple of years ago and lost to seb Ross

 

[Sausage Legs]

I reckon Jack billing was 1.05 a couple of years ago and lost to seb Ross

Jack Steven 1.02 lost to riewoldt

 

[BigInsideMid]

someone gave a wines top 20 at 4.4 and parker at 3.10 earlier in the season and i multi'd that up. Whoever that was i forget but i love you lots

Couldn't agree more mate. Last year I jumped on this forum at the end of the season and played catch up,scrolling through 70 pages of discussion. This year I jumped on from the beginning and contributed where I could with my (inexperienced) knowledge. Don't entirely agree to wait until the end of the season as Sportsbet were very smart to suck out all the value throughout the season. Other big value's I can thank due to the team on BF are Steele top 20 @ $3's Mitchell top 20 @ $4's, Touk top 20 @ $7.50, and a few more I can't think off the top of my head.

 

[dustydontargue]

With the whole betting once the season has finished. I can understand that comment as you are then betting on a market once it has completed and yo have all the information. But you would be an idiot to think that there arent discrepancies/mistakes in the market throughout the year based on what has happened and can happen. As proven by people posting some bets they have got on throughout the season

 

[FootyStar#1]

Parish on 18 - I have Merrett over him round 11, Merrett & Stringer both in round 18, and Stringer in round 22.
I also have Martin & Bolton ahead in the Dreamtime game, fascinating game to predict as Parish obviously got the medal, you have to go back to 2015 to see a player not get the 3 after winning the medal in that game. I think it'd probably be a similar stat for 44 disposals. However, not often 2 players with the on field presence and highlights of Dusty and Bolton also perform and have match winning moments while the best oppo mid gets 44.

Parish could poll as high as 23 if it all goes right but as a breakout mid I don't think he attracts his maximum expected votes.

Yep nice one. I'm pretty sure that Darcy will get at least 2 for the dreamtime game, can only see Dusty taking the 3 from him.

Round 11 is very interesting, total line ball for me and could determine who wins Essendons count. The 11-1 clearance count for Darcy gives him the nod for me.

I have Parish finished on 24.5 but can see him falling between 21-25.

 

[FootyStar#1]

After watching all of Port Adelaide's matches over the last couple of weeks I'm absolutely certain that Wines will not win.

Gotta be amongst the most ineffective players in the league by foot. 30+ with half contested is all well and good but none of his kicking is impressive. Weight of numbers counts for plenty but he's not on Tom Mitchell's level, it's difficult to win a brownlow with handballs alone. 30m gained from a hack kick clearance that usually leads to nothing isn't going to get it done.

Brownlow medalists do it by picking up 3's. This bloke is relying on too many 1-2 vote games and I can see him not getting a vote at all in plenty of them, especially earlier in the season.

I'm starting to warm to this aswell. I actually am thinking a tie is more and more likely as the night gets closer. Have more confidence in Oliver and Steele. Right now, I'd say Oliver just or a tie between the two of them.