AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[FootyStar#1]

Okay so in that case you must have him at 20+ votes or high teens with many games locked in as BOG/3 votes right?

Ultimately although I think it's more likely than not that Parker ends with 15+ votes, you really want a healthy margin to make it worthwhile right?

If you think $1.35 is fair (implied probability 74.07%), then to allow for any margin, you must be at least 80% sure that Parker gets 15 votes or more?

There are multiple credible sources with Parker at less than 15 votes (BYB for example). And I just had a close look, even BYB was quite generous to Parker in some games imo. I just don't think you can really be 80% or even 70% sure that Parker will have 15 votes or more.

Think a few people are far too confident on Parker. I think he will just get over 15 votes but am not overly confident. My count has him on 16.5. He has been a great poller so do have to take that into consideration.

 

[Tigers04]

Not sure if this has been said yet but on SB you can multi the most team votes and 1 of the to get 15+20+25+ etc.

most team votes
Cunnington
Martin
Oliver
Amon
Mundy
Guthrie
J.Kelly
Parker

to get 15+
mundy
Guthrie
Parker
All up multi was approx $15

 

[FootyStar#1]

Not sure if this has been said yet but on SB you can multi the most team votes and 1 of the to get 15+20+25+ etc.

most team votes
Cunnington
Martin
Oliver
Amon
Mundy
Guthrie
J.Kelly
Parker

to get 15+
mundy
Guthrie
Parker
All up multi was approx $15

Seems like its only working for the 15 vote market at the moment for me.

 

[Frinkle]

Wish they’d bring out 10+ markets. Fair few blokes hovering around that 9-11 could be worth a punt

 

[Tigers04]

Seems like its only working for the 15 vote market at the moment for me.

Don’t think it’s working anymore, I can’t seem to multi anything else

 

[offthebusgus]

Don’t think it’s working anymore, I can’t seem to multi anything else

think you tipped them off mate haha, cheers for the heads up, where would we be without big footy?!

 

[Tigers04]

think you tipped them off mate haha, cheers for the heads up, where would we be without big footy?!

Yeah I only got 2 bets on, was going to do more but then couldn’t multi anymore.
Surely there is someone from SB in here or they are watching as I only put $40 on lol

 

[TheRednWhite]

they know

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

A few more BYO’s up

 

[Tigers04]

A few more BYO’s up

View attachment 1228138View attachment 1228139

That Kelly and laird one looks alright!

 

[Billionaire Panda]

A few more BYO’s up

View attachment 1228138

If they've got Selwood as clear 2nd fave then would've liked to see better odds on their Exacta

 

[jajawinx]

Neale to poll 10 votes $6
He is around the 8-9 vote mark but as a proven poller $6 might be worth a pineapple

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Neale to poll 10 votes $6
He is around the 8-9 vote mark but as a proven poller $6 might be worth a pineapple

I have him on 11 but I gave him 3 against west coast where most gave him 1.

 

[threesam]

I reckon Jack billing was 1.05 a couple of years ago and lost to seb Ross

Billings was 1.14 in 2019 and Ross was at 4.50 (SB), ($5 on TAB) and Ross won by 1 vote.

 

[burge13]

BYOB DeGoey to win Pies votes by 3+ is 1.57
DeGoey to win Pies votes is 1.85

Wtf goes on at SB HQ?!

 

[squeaky1000]

BYOB DeGoey to win Pies votes by 3+ is 1.57
DeGoey to win Pies votes is 1.85

Wtf goes on at SB HQ?!

Similar story with Parker at $1.67 for 15+ votes compared to McLuggage at $1.40 and Kelly at $1.17, but Parker at $1.25 to make the top 20 with the other two at $1.50+. Not a whole lot of sense being made

 

[EFL Boy]

BYOB DeGoey to win Pies votes by 3+ is 1.57
DeGoey to win Pies votes is 1.85

Wtf goes on at SB HQ?!

Haha, De Goey by 3+ is now out to $1.91.

 

[botswana42]

Parker Top 20 $1.9 on SB. Am i missing something? That's lauaghable overs

 

[jajawinx]

Parker Top 20 $1.9 on SB. Am i missing something? That's lauaghable overs

It’s a mess, he was $1.25 all day, now $1.65. Wtf is going on with SB?

 

[botswana42]

It’s a mess, he was $1.25 all day, now $1.65. Wtf is going on with SB?

only got 40 bucks on, tried to deposit a lot more, but happy to keep betting until it hurts @1.65. genuine 1.2 chance. no idea why they would wind that out, i'm absolutely no guru, but maybe there was no back money on betfair so they wanted to see what people were willing to bet at? just throwing it out there

 

[jajawinx]

only got 40 bucks on, tried to deposit a lot more, but happy to keep betting until it hurts @1.65. genuine 1.2 chance

You confident of him cracking the top 20?

 

[TheRednWhite]

stop complaining ffs, they will find out

 

[Benjo_]

De Goey BYO out from $1.51 to $1.90
Parker 15+ in from $1.57 to $1.36

Since being mentioned 30 mins ago..... So unbelievably suss

 

[burge13]

If theyre watching, lift your game you parasites. Ridiculously juiced markets across all footy.

You're not far off Kim Kardashian AGS being $1.35 with $50 limits on. Embarrassing

 

[NonPhixion]

De Goey BYO out from $1.51 to $1.90
Parker 15+ in from $1.57 to $1.36

Since being mentioned 30 mins ago..... So unbelievably suss

Oh yeh. There is no explanation for an extremely coincidental drift. It was legit $1.57 for hours haha.

Hey SB