AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

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Sportsbet BYOs are so trash this year they’re drifting them out to get people to bite because nobody’s touching them at these horrible odds. It’s quite obvious they’re taking 30% off everything before putting them out. Poor effort from the supposed top Corp in Aus, PointsBet really showed them up this year their post season markets have been far far better.

Come on SB if you want us to play your BYOs give us respectable odds.
 
Sportsbet BYOs are so trash this year they’re drifting them out to get people to bite because nobody’s touching them at these horrible odds. It’s quite obvious they’re taking 30% off everything before putting them out. Poor effort from the supposed top Corp in Aus, PointsBet really showed them up this year their post season markets have been far far better.

Come on SB if you want us to play your BYOs give us respectable odds.

Yeah and decent options. I’d say around 10% or less of them actually come through right now.
 
Value identified in to poll a vote markets

Cumming at $2.75 (chances to poll in rd 21, 22)
Perryman $3.40 (19)
Mumford $3.40 (5)
Ben Ainsworth $2.75 (16, maybe 6)
Draper $2.50 (14)
Viney $2.30 (4, 18, 3)
Hurn $2.20 (1, maybe 13/18)
ROB as mentioned (4/19)
Ceglar $1.83 (13, maybe 21)
Fiorini $1.83 (19, maybe 21)
DBJ $1.67 (5/16)
Matt Kennedy $1.36 (18 lock)
Big O $1.17 (15/19 locks)
I don't mind Archie Perkins at $1.45 to add into a multi. I've given him 1.5 votes in R17 against Adelaide.
 

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I don't mind Archie Perkins at $1.45 to add into a multi. I've given him 1.5 votes in R17 against Adelaide.
His only chance all season where i have him above 0.01 votes is this round 17 game so you're getting $1.45 for him to poll in that game only.
Although i have him third best on ground, this game was an absolute massacre with no clear standouts and he so can so easily swap out for Stringer/Hind/Ridley that at this price I just can't see it being worth it
Screen Shot 2021-09-07 at 10.29.39 am.png
 
De Goey BYO out from $1.51 to $1.90
Parker 15+ in from $1.57 to $1.36

Since being mentioned 30 mins ago..... So unbelievably suss
It's not that they are reading this exactly, it's that people bet 1000s on markets minutes after they drop which changes the odds fast!
 

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This is my comparison for the Rd 6 Brisbane v Carlton game

Think the question in this game will be 'Who polls the 1 vote?" McKay and McCluggage have the battle for the 3 and 2- which i think could go either way. Ill stick with my initial thinking and go for Zorko to snag that 1. Had 14 tackles and his thick thighs will stand out to the umps. Think it will be closer than what people think for the (3 v 2) and the 1 vote could go to 5-6 players.....this is my R output from a couple of observations of this game:


Screen Shot 2021-09-07 at 12.01.29 pm.png
 
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id be keen to have a play on McKay at around $3 to be best on ground against Brisbane, if that was offered to me..in Rd 6.


and for Walsh backers to win the brownlow, or top 3, or top 5- if he could jag a 1 here , it would be a handy vote to have in the bank. (but shouldnt lose sleep if he doesnt poll here)
 
id be keen to have a play on McKay at around $3 to be best on ground against Brisbane, if that was offered to me..in Rd 6.


and for Walsh backers to win the brownlow, or top 3, or top 5- if he could jag a 1 here , it would be a handy vote to have in the bank. (but shouldnt lose sleep if he doesnt poll here)

what's your top 5 count nyrb?
 
id be keen to have a play on McKay at around $3 to be best on ground against Brisbane, if that was offered to me..in Rd 6.


and for Walsh backers to win the brownlow, or top 3, or top 5- if he could jag a 1 here , it would be a handy vote to have in the bank. (but shouldnt lose sleep if he doesnt poll here)
Happy to offer you $3 on McKay for the 3votes here if SB don't
 
Happy to offer you $3 on McKay for the 3votes here if SB don't
First time I watched it , thought Cluggage was BOG. Second time I watched it, thought McKay was best on ground. I averaged at my odds and came to Clugg being BOG.

I kept the votes for the 3-2-1 exactly as it was when I watched it first time. Had Clugg kicked a goal, would have easily said he was BOG. He did have a miss from fairly close in front of goals in the 2nd half which he sprayed to the right.
 
Neds Brownlow Teams Markets are up, and you can multi them.

As a side note, do any of you combo multi your bets? i.e. Pick 10 team leaders then combo multi to protect yourself if ~1-2 of the legs fail depending on the combo you choose.
 
Yes, less value, more security though. Can hedge your bets in way by doing this with a heap of combos. Bigger outlay though.
 
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