Analysis 2021 draft thread

[T Rick]

Went to the Lions draft night function at the Gabba tonight.

We had Darcy Wilmot rated at 11 and Kai Lohmann at 14, we got exactly who the recruiters wanted.

Wow - that is fantastic intel.

 

[Mighty Lions]

I just shut up then? Only praise for our super awesome recruitment team is welcome on here?
In all seriousness I will get behind any player we draft. I'm stoked to get both boys to the club.
My issue is our ridiculous wasting of picks and points over the last couple of years. It's been diabolical. I'm sure someone will lay it all out at some point over the next couple of days, but it wouldn't surprise me if we have squandered a couple of thousand points or the equivalent of a top 5 pick in value in two years.

No. Why go from 1 polar opposite extreme to another? That's another example of your extreme views leaving you open to criticism's. Your opinions are way too critical and unjustified given you have no background into why these picks were taken. You (& a couple of others) talk like you are the ultimate talent scout and know this system better than anyone when in fact (unless you were at an AFL recruitment team) you know not much compared to Conole, Harris & Co. I find them insulting to the club we all support and follow.

 

[jjami15]

There was quite a bit of negotiating going on but nothing coming to anything that The Lions wanted to agree to other than to do what they did. Suffice to say, our club is pleased with their selections thus far in the draft.

Most importantly what do the clubs think of the fox footy telecast? Same old same old and seems to be getting worse each year. Now that’s something to kick off about.

 

[Section 5]

Well the talk before the draft suggested their may be some surprises.
Mainly around lack of games from a few of the states over the last couple of years
I remember reading an article recently about a top 10 rated player (name escapes me) played only about 6 games in 30 months
So it comes as no surprise to me that their were some "bolter" selections
Those being
Pick 15: Aleer to GWS
Pick 18: Sheldrick to Swans
Pick 20: Lohmann to Lions

So 15% of the top 20 selections would be regarded as "bolter" or unexpected selections
However that does not mean these three clubs have made any mistakes in the selections
They all would have done sufficient intel to come up with these selections
We may very well see something similar in tonight's 2nd & 3rd round

 

[Voss the boss]

Am i missing something.... from what i see Wilmot looks good enough for me. Not every player needs to have an X factor - we have quite a few of them. He reads the ball well in the air, attacks it like he wants it and doesn't seem to be rushed or panicked If we pick him - I will start the bandwagon

As the president of the bandwagon.... who's with me now

 

[mpal6]

I tried making Cobra Kai a thing but didnt get much love.

Wait until he launches for a mark like Linc and follows up with a freakish goal. Cobra Kai will be roaring in game day threads and you can take credit for it !

 

[scoman]

No. Why go from 1 polar opposite extreme to another? That's another example of your extreme views leaving you open to criticism's. Your opinions are way too critical and unjustified given you have no background into why these picks were taken. You (& a couple of others) talk like you are the ultimate talent scout and know this system better than anyone when in fact (unless you were at an AFL recruitment team) you know not much compared to Conole, Harris & Co. I find them insulting to the club we all support and follow.

Another example of my extreme opinions? I se myself as the ultimate talent scout? Seriously get a grip mate. I'm cranky at the club about our wasteful pick trading that came to a head last night. I have always supported our players and never been one to belittle or overly criticize them on here. I will do the same with Lohman and Wilmot and whoever we choose to draft n the future.

 

[AFLQLD]

The draft night thread became a cesspit of toxicity like game day threads so gradually that it took me a while to notice. Big boy experts claiming they know better than anyone else (including the paid professionals) and that only they know what should have been done and how easy and obvious it is to them. It reminds me of someone who wanted to build a wall and get the Mexicans to pay for it.

They all speak with such certainty about something that is acknowledged by those who do it professionally as a mix of science, knowledge, intuition and luck.

 

[scott_the_man]

That’s still an issue and a huge risk. I don’t think we’re in a position to do this given we’ve added bugger all talent in the last 3 drafts. Picking someone who hasn’t even performed a role well at under 18 level and expecting him to develop there instead of drafting someone who did play that role reasonably well is a big gamble

What do you mean bugger all talent in the last 3 drafts?

2018:
E.Smith: Was very close to debuting this year before re injuring himself.

Tom Berry: Has shown quite a bit and has been called up to the senior side multiple times.

Noah Answerth: Was excellent at senior level before injuring himself.

McFadyen: clearly has talent/xfactor and has just signed a new contract. Another victim of injuries.

2019:
Dev: has played regular senior footy and has massive scope for improvement. Larke medallist.

Coleman: another who has found a regular spot in the team and has played finals footy. Loads of talent.

Prior: for pick 59 he is an absolute beauty. Played a lot more senior football in his young career to date than what was expected.

2020: too early to tell, although H.Smith showed excellent signs in the ressies and Sharp debuted round one.

The only misses over that 3 year period are Brock Smith and Tom Joyce. Although Joyce is an immensely talented footballer who tore it up in the vfl this year.

Our recruiters have done an excellent job of identifying talent. Injuries have diminished their work but that's life.

Your criticism is very unwarranted.

 

[M Malice]

Goater was mentioned.

Johnson is not next on our list, of the players still available.

Must be those bloody 61 year old ears of mine, I must have got you to repeat yourself a dozen times last night, it was bloody noisy.. to me anyway.

Whoever we had next on our list wont be available at our next selection anyway so I don't think we'd be giving away any secrets if we divulged who is next cab off the rank, IIRC someone asked about tonight's target and they said they will be leaving any information re that to the Melbourne draft function tonight.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Another example of my extreme opinions? I se myself as the ultimate talent scout? Seriously get a grip mate. I'm cranky at the club about our wasteful pick trading that came to a head last night. I have always supported our players and never been one to belittle or overly criticize them on here. I will do the same with Lohman and Wilmot and whoever we choose to draft n the future.

Your uneducated & opinion that our "wasteful pick trading" getting you cranky is what I am talking about mate. I have a grip and also raise eyebrows with some decisions the club makes, however I dont dump on our guys like you have done without really knowing anything about what is going on inside the inner sanctum of the club. Players are a big part of the club but there are many others (some who you have had a big crack at) who also work hard and contribute to making our club what it is today. In my opinion, the dumping you have handed out is just not warranted and I am saying so just as much as you put them down.

 

[beardancer]

Must have kicked a ton of goals at junior level



Because he’s somewhere near his potential which isn’t good enough for AFL level

that's a big call!!

 

[M Malice]

Wilmot was seen as a player that would have been a top ten draft pick in 2022 had he been born a say later. We rated Lohmann three spots under Wilmot.

Yep, that was mentioned a couple of times last night, if he was born 21 minutes later he would have been in next years draft, also they didn't say top 10 next year, the recruiter said their view was top 2-3.

 

[dlanod]

The only misses over that 3 year period are Brock Smith and Tom Joyce. Although Joyce is an immensely talented footballer who tore it up in the vfl this year.

I'd add Ely simply because he looks a lot closer to being gone than making the team. Obviously he didn't come on as hoped but it was an upside gamble. If you take the safer option every time you end up with a bunch of vanilla mids unless you're picking in the top 10, since they're the easiest to project.

 

[dtm06]

Realistically, drafts can only be judged in hindsight.

I think it's quite reasonable to have big question marks over our 2018 draft now, and be pretty confident we did well in 2019.

2020 is still too recent and to be as upset as some seem to be over 2021 is bizarre behaviour imo. It implies you a) have a better understanding of the talent than the club recruiters and b) have inside knowledge about where every other club privately rated the players.

I'd suggest neither of those apply to anyone on here and the criticism can only be informed in a few years.

 

[FFB1]

I vividly recall plenty of OKC fans in the USA lamenting on twitter the drafting of Giddey. “Who?” “WTF?” “FMD” etc. Nekminnit.

 

[RoyBoy17]

Happy with the players picked. Haven’t seen any footage of Kai but sounds an exciting prospect. They have clearly valued speed and athleticism either end of the ground which will help us with our pressure. Wilmot is a good chance for round 1 despite age. Interesting to see what type of player we get at 41.

 

[briztoon]

I hope Briztoon is ok.

By the way, jjami15 can confirm this, Kai Lohman was the kid I’d hope we’d get at 41, though I did say to jjami15 I didn’t believe he’d slip that far.

If we trade back from 41, maybe we look at mature age defender Noah Pegoraro out of WA.

 

[jjami15]

I vividly recall plenty of OKC fans in the USA lamenting on twitter the drafting of Giddey. “Who?” “WTF?” “FMD” etc. Nekminnit.

Have to admit I do enjoy his clips on Youtube. Such a different player and with the court spacing in the NBA allows for his court vision and passing to shine.

 

[Flea_29]

Interesting to see who we target with our next pick - currently pick 40.
Currently picks before us:
- FREM: 21
- NTH: 22,34,37
- HAW: 23, 26
- GEEL; 24, 25, 33
- CAR: 27
- RICH: 28,29,30
- WCE: 31, 36
- SYD: 32, 39
- ADEL: 35
- MELB: 38

Wonder whether we trade Pick 40 and a 2022 2nd for one of Richmond's picks.
We would be looking at a tall for our next pick? BAZZO/DEAN/AVERY/WILLIAMS/PEGORARO

Players still on the board
GOATER
JOHNSON
HOWES
SONSIE
BAZZO
BUTLER
MOTLOP
KNEVITT
CONWAY
DRAPER
MACDONALD
SOLIGO
WARNER
TAYLOR
CLARKE
LORD
DEAN
ROBERTS
WILLIAMS
VOSS
BANKS
AVERY

FAHEY & OWENS to be picked up by GWS and STK

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Interesting to see who we target with our next pick - currently pick 40.
Currently picks before us:
- FREM: 21
- NTH: 22,34,37
- HAW: 23, 26
- GEEL; 24, 25, 33
- CAR: 27
- RICH: 28,29,30
- WCE: 31, 36
- SYD: 32, 39
- ADEL: 35
- MELB: 38

Wonder whether we trade Pick 40 and a 2022 2nd for one of Richmond's picks.
We would be looking at a tall for our next pick? BAZZO/DEAN/AVERY/WILLIAMS/PEGORARO

Players still on the board
GOATER
JOHNSON
HOWES
SONSIE
BAZZO
BUTLER
MOTLOP
KNEVITT
CONWAY
DRAPER
MACDONALD
SOLIGO
WARNER
TAYLOR
CLARKE
LORD
DEAN
ROBERTS
WILLIAMS
VOSS
BANKS
AVERY

FAHEY & OWENS to be picked up by GWS and STK

Probably need to hang on to our later 2022 picks for matching bids. Freo would definitely be fielding offers for their pick, maybe we are in there.

 

[KissKiss]

After sleeping on it, I will trust the club but my surprise is still really on the position - assuming Lohman is a high half forward. Even looking forward 4 years from now I still feel thats a position we are well covered in. Cameron will be about 30-31, but we should still have Coleman*2, Ah Chee, Cockatoo, Bailey and Rayner or should be rotating through there.

Wing or midfield, and KPP felt like a bigger need in the shorter term. But I also guess thats why recruiters take the many year view to take into account Ashcroft and others coming up

 

[Fagenslions36]

What players in this draft would will Ashcroft be most like in terms of playing style ?

 

[spotthedog1]

In 2018 we essentially downgraded our own first and our future first by swapping Beams for Neale. Not bad really although we spent our best pick on E Smith.

In 2019 we decided to trade out of the first round (Collingwood's pick 16) in a deal with Port Adelaide for their future 1st.

In 2020 we traded out that Port first rounder and our own (18 and 19) to Melbourne for their first this year which ended up being 18.

So we have basically lost that 2019 Collingwood first rounder (16) over the last couple of years. This is what myself and others have been referring to when we say that the pick 18 we held this year cost us a lot. It had the value of two first round picks.

To then use it on a player who may very well have been available mid to late second round is pretty annoying. Trade wise it's like us paying picks 16 and 18 for pick 28. It's not great value wise, in fact it's terrible.

Our pick trading there wasn't great, and I don't think it's unfair to say that we've been poor at it for a few years.

Trading with Melbourne last year I didn't have a problem with. We clearly lost the trade in hindsight, but I'm not sure anyone saw that resurgence coming.

That said, now that we had that pick, you have to do your normal work with it. It was pick 18, not pick 18 *carries a lot of weight and make different decisions*.

It's a shame we didn't manage to extract better value, but oh well. All said and done now.

 

[M Malice]

Interesting to see who we target with our next pick - currently pick 40.
Currently picks before us:
- FREM: 21
- NTH: 22,34,37
- HAW: 23, 26
- GEEL; 24, 25, 33
- CAR: 27
- RICH: 28,29,30
- WCE: 31, 36
- SYD: 32, 39
- ADEL: 35
- MELB: 38

Wonder whether we trade Pick 40 and a 2022 2nd for one of Richmond's picks.
We would be looking at a tall for our next pick? BAZZO/DEAN/AVERY/WILLIAMS/PEGORARO

Players still on the board
GOATER
JOHNSON
HOWES
SONSIE
BAZZO
BUTLER
MOTLOP
KNEVITT
CONWAY
DRAPER
MACDONALD
SOLIGO
WARNER
TAYLOR
CLARKE
LORD
DEAN
ROBERTS
WILLIAMS
VOSS
BANKS
AVERY

FAHEY & OWENS to be picked up by GWS and STK

Probably not really a need but I'd be hoping we go for Sam Banks... that's assuming we are zero chance for the likes of Goater, Johnson, Howes, Sonsie, Butler.. unlikely but if Bazzo slides that far I'd take him. Voss would be a feel good story but can't see us taking him.