Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Quigley]

For me I was disappointed that we did not go with one of my more favoured guys. That is a personal thing but I do rate my own ability to assess talent and if guys I rate are there I get disappointed in us not taking them. It is all well and good to say trust the professionals because they get to see a lot more of the talent than we do but at some stage you have to assess how well these guys actually assess talent and on past performance you have to say they do not have a significantly higher success rate than many one man band amateurs.

They have been really poor in recent years with the ability to assess tall talent and their reaches have invariably failed. When they have succeeded it has pretty much been by playing the odds and taking the obvious pick. They also have had much better success when they have drafted on best available rather than for positional need.

Interesting that it appears that Canole flat out lied several times going into the draft that we would be drafting for best available. At the functions it appears that they were told it was positional picks and who they took seemed to bear that out.

This year I understand what they were trying to do with the picks and I sincerely hope they hit home runs with both but based on track record I think supporters have every right to question Canole and his team. They are midfield at best and they could do with some scrutiny coming their way.

 

[M Malice]

Danny Daly on radio this morning:

- didn't sound like the vic players would come up to Brisbane before Christmas (I might have misunderstood this bit)

They had both draftees on the speaker phone at the draft function and there was talk of them being up here pretty rapidly ie. training on Monday.. but they weren't 100% sure on that.

 

[POBT]

They had both draftees on the speaker phone at the draft function and there was talk of them being up here pretty rapidly ie. training on Monday.. but they weren't 100% sure on that.

I just don't think that is possible with the border restrictions.

 

[M Malice]

For me I was disappointed that we did not go with one of my more favoured guys. That is a personal thing but I do rate my own ability to assess talent and if guys I rate are there I get disappointed in us not taking them. It is all well and good to say trust the professionals because they get to see a lot more of the talent than we do but at some stage you have to assess how well these guys actually assess talent and on past performance you have to say they do not have a significantly higher success rate than many one man band amateurs.

They have been really poor in recent years with the ability to assess tall talent and their reaches have invariably failed. When they have succeeded it has pretty much been by playing the odds and taking the obvious pick. They also have had much better success when they have drafted on best available rather than for positional need.

Interesting that it appears that Canole flat out lied several times going into the draft that we would be drafting for best available. At the functions it appears that they were told it was positional picks and who they took seemed to bear that out.

This year I understand what they were trying to do with the picks and I sincerely hope they hit home runs with both but based on track record I think supporters have every right to question Canole and his team. They are midfield at best and they could do with some scrutiny coming their way.

They said they are going more needs based as it is a distinct possibility if you go purely on best available you end up too stocked up on 1 type of player so essentially it is best available for our list needs.

Edit- Also they said if Hobbs was still on the board at 16 we would have still taken Wilmot.

 

[cotter101]

Targeted those quick players who can really impact a game. Something we lacked all year.

Interested to see what we do with #41.

 

[POBT]

I think it is fair to describe our drafting under Conole as "midfield". There have been too many successful drafts to describe it as poor but I think there has been enough evidence to suggest that they have pulled the wrong rein a few too many times, which the best talent managers don't seem to - eg look at Melbourne who have barely missed in recent time.

I do think our list management overall under Ambrogio/Noble was very good. And, as a mitigating factor for the draft team, we have de-emphasised the draft for a few years which makes Conole's job harder.

If Wilmot and Lohmann turn out to be good players, it probably reinforces that 2018 wasn't a fluke. If either/both struggle, then we might need to think about a change.

 

[briztoon]

Was also mentioned last night that Ashcroft is currently in home quarantine on the GC, and will be training with us this preseason.

Fagan really likes young Ashcroft And young Fletcher.

 

[Quigley]

On the players we took.

Wilmot I see as a high floor type. At worst he should be a very solid starting 22 player and getting someone like that at 16 is a solid pick. What I like about him most is his composure at the back. He reads the play well, does not look rushed and makes good use of the time he has. He is also very confident which is an important trait to have. He reads the play very well and is a good mark of the ball. Onfield he does move quite a bit like Madden although he is not as quick (still very athletic though) and his kicking style is also a little like Madden although he does not dwell over the ball to the extent that Madden does. With his 31/12 birthday there is likely to be plenty of upside and the fact that he captained Metro in a game this year also speaks well of his personality.

Lohman I have seen zero of. Based on what I read though I don't hate the pick in theory. Whilst Wilmot was a relatively safe pick I see Lohman as a low floor high ceiling type. If he works out he has the tools to be a star. His speed and jumps are top shelf and his endurance is reasonable and developing. He was thrown into a new role this year and whilst he struggled early he showed significant improvement in later games. He recognises that his kicking needs to improve and that is something which he himself has said he has been working on a lot. He has X factor forward of centre that is missing in most of our next generation guys. Personally I had McMillan in the next draft as a potential Robbo replacement but that role is where I think the team might see Lohman filling longer term. So a forward of centre mid flanker type who can kick goals and also go inside and win his own ball.

Personally I was disappointed we didn't take Johnson who was very much one of my favourites in this draft. I have subsequently heard (not sure how reliable the source) that he was considered a flight risk by some clubs which was the reason for so many non-WA teams passed on him. I am sure Freo will be absolutely stoked though. If we had wanted to go with a mid forward I would also have preferred Sonsie who I think has a very high ceiling as well.

 

[Nuggo]

I think player retention, attitude towards life, leadership and community all come into play as best available not just pure talent. No point having a jet if he is never going to fly for the lions.

High expectations from all corners of our club should be encouraged and expected particularly so from the recruitment team.

 

[scoman]

Targeted those quick players who can really impact a game. Something we lacked all year.

Interested to see what we do with #41.

I really like this aspect of our two recruits. I think they both have some flexibility with their positions as well. Wilmot might end up a winger, a lockdown small defender or a rebounding halfback and Lohman could end up anywhere bar key position.

 

[mpal6]

The more I read about Lohmann, looks like he'll take over from Robbo and fill the larrikin quota in the team.

Sharp and Lohmann on either wings feels like a good investment to me.

 

[scoman]

I think player retention, attitude towards life, leadership and community all come into play as best available not just pure talent. No point having a jet if he is never going to fly for the lions.

High expectations from all corners of our club should be encouraged and expected particularly so from the recruitment team.

Both seem to be real characters. I think we might see a bit of these two lads on the clubs social media over the years.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Probably worth mentioning that "best available" is a fairly nebulous term. Does it mean the absolute best or the best for the club? The latter may be a slightly disingenuous interpretation, but you could argue it.

I was also in attendance at the draft function last night. They did go through their rankings and although I won't recount them here (mostly because I probably couldn't do it with 100% accuracy, but also because I don't feel that info belongs in a public forum) there were midfielders high up on our boards. It's not like we just discounted them totally.

I'd always view any clubs rankings as a weighted ranking.

 

[Tom14]

I think it is fair to describe our drafting under Conole as "midfield". There have been too many successful drafts to describe it as poor but I think there has been enough evidence to suggest that they have pulled the wrong rein a few too many times, which the best talent managers don't seem to - eg look at Melbourne who have barely missed in recent time.

I do think our list management overall under Ambrogio/Noble was very good. And, as a mitigating factor for the draft team, we have de-emphasised the draft for a few years which makes Conole's job harder.

If Wilmot and Lohmann turn out to be good players, it probably reinforces that 2018 wasn't a fluke. If either/both struggle, then we might need to think about a change.

I don't want to say that recruiters/talent evaluators don't matter, but at some level I do think particular recruiters who draft well for a period of time come back to the pack, and equally if not more important is the status of the team they join.

Melbourne has had some good recent hits, some of which are likely just a benefit of having high picks, as well as some that were good later selections of role players who have come into a talented team and contributed. But conversely, they went through a decade or more of butchering picks beforehand.

We've had our share of successes as well for particular periods - 2008 stands out, as does 2011, then 2017 more recently. The problem we had for a while was retention which killed off any chance of the 2011 draft class being contributors. Other times we have taken the consensus, obvious pick, and it has been a poor selection - e.g. Aish, Schache.

The biggest impact on our drafting the last couple of years is we've made a couple of speculative bets in terms of pick swaps, both of which I thought were ok at the time. In hindsight the Melbourne one was too much to give up, but I was in favour of seeing if we could get a really early pick out of Port or the Dees at the time. Port getting the benefit in 2020 of playing no away games in Melbourne and getting the WA clubs in the QLD hub hurt the prospects of that pick pretty badly.

 

[scoman]

Seems to be quite a bit of talent still on the board:

Matt Johnson, Josh Goater, Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

, Blake Howes, Tyler Sonsie, Arlo Draper, Zac Taylor, Jesse Motlop, Mitch Knevitt and Matthew Roberts are names that stand out at this point having been in first round discussions for much of the year.

Im not sure if any of them excite us enough to make a play? I'm still looking at Richmond's three picks in the late 20's here. I'm not sure they really want to use all three in a row like that?

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Seems to be quite a bit of talent still on the board:

Matt Johnson, Josh Goater, Sam Butler, Blake Howes, Tyler Sonsie, Arlo Draper, Zac Taylor, Jesse Motlop, Mitch Knevitt and Matthew Roberts are names that stand out at this point having been in first round discussions for much of the year.

Im not sure if any of them excite us enough to make a play? I'm still looking at Richmond's three picks in the late 20's here. I'm not sure they really want to use all three in a row like that?

I doubt we'd be wiling to trade away any of our 2022 picks to move up.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Seems to be quite a bit of talent still on the board:

Matt Johnson, Josh Goater, Sam Butler, Blake Howes, Tyler Sonsie, Arlo Draper, Zac Taylor, Jesse Motlop, Mitch Knevitt and Matthew Roberts are names that stand out at this point having been in first round discussions for much of the year.

Im not sure if any of them excite us enough to make a play? I'm still looking at Richmond's three picks in the late 20's here. I'm not sure they really want to use all three in a row like that?

Personally, don't think the club will be looking at any of those options with our final pick (if still available) and instead will be most likely drafting a developing KPP (preferably KPD) or swingman to help increase the depth of our key position stocks in the future at the football club.

 

[youtwo]

This year I understand what they were trying to do with the picks and I sincerely hope they hit home runs with both but based on track record I think supporters have every right to question Canole and his team. They are midfield at best and they could do with some scrutiny coming their way.

It is certainly reasonable to question draft decisions after 3-4 years of players being in the system.

What is not reasonable and completely irrational, is some people bagging the recruitment team only a matter of minutes after draft selections are made.

 

[KissKiss]

I doubt we'd be wiling to trade away any of our 2022 picks to move up.

There is the question over our first next year likely to be taken up by an Ashcroft bid. So we do need to consider how to get the best value out of it - could be this year or it could be next year once we have a better idea of both Ashcroft's likely draft range and where our pick falls

 

[spotthedog1]

Probably worth mentioning that "best available" is a fairly nebulous term. Does it mean the absolute best or the best for the club? The latter may be a slightly disingenuous interpretation, but you could argue it.

I was also in attendance at the draft function last night. They did go through their rankings and although I won't recount them here (mostly because I probably couldn't do it with 100% accuracy, but also because I don't feel that info belongs in a public forum) there were midfielders high up on our boards. It's not like we just discounted any them totally.

I'd always view any clubs rankings as a weighted ranking.

How about "draft for talent, trade for needs"? I'd say that's quite clear cut.

That said, while the club has lied to members on that, it's not unexpected or unreasonable... It's nice to say that the club is a big family, but at the end of the day, they're a business and we're the customer. The club employs marketing on us plenty (and so they should). And that's even before we get to the obvious fact that most/all other clubs would've had someone listen to Conole's section on the Roar Deal the other day just to see if they could pick up some vague ideas of our plans. Putting out false information in the leadup is just the way it's done.

I do prefer to take best available over positional picks, but as I said earlier - if you have a blanket over 5 guys ranked at roughly the same level, and one's in a position you need, of course that'll edge him up slightly. There's a lot of subjective work here too.

 

[KissKiss]

I also dont think its a bad thing for the club to not be fully truthful about draft strategy. You clearly need to be smart in who you tell what or you end up like Essendon getting jumped for Sinn

 

[twhowler]

I'll back the recruiters on whatever decisions they make, but I will say this. Modern history is littered with players who get shifted to the half back who weren't recruited for that role and flourish. It appears a relatively easy position to play and fill. Not sure spending high end picks on half backs is wise...

A few examples being Rich, Jayden Short, Nick Hind, Aaron Hall, Jack Ziebell, Starcevich, Sicily, Bailey Dale, Caleb Daniel etc.

St

Rayner fail is very harsh, would you say that if he hadnt done his knee, i obviously still have high hopes he will be a 200 game player. Would he be a pass if taken at pick 6?

I think our drafting has been a bit hit and miss lately and worthy of criticism

But if you are going to say Henry Smith is a fail, after one year on the list as a still growing 204cm forward without a senior game and with barely a ressies game because of covid, it's time to get some perspective

 

[Mighty Lions]

I doubt we'd be wiling to trade away any of our 2022 picks to move up.

Agree. THe word i have is that we are adamant no future draft picks should/would be used as a trade in this years draft.

 

[scoman]

I doubt we'd be wiling to trade away any of our 2022 picks to move up.

Personally, don't think the club will be looking at any of those options with our final pick (if still available) and instead will be most likely drafting a developing KPP (preferably KPD) or swingman to help increase the depth of our key position stocks in the future at the football club.

Yeah it would have to be a live trade scenario. Would have to tick plenty of boxes including considerable points for next year.

Probably would work more if it's Richmond or another club coming at us though, and that's more likely to happen next year.

 

[Lions1024]

I'd add Ely simply because he looks a lot closer to being gone than making the team. Obviously he didn't come on as hoped but it was an upside gamble. If you take the safer option every time you end up with a bunch of vanilla mids unless you're picking in the top 10, since they're the easiest to project.

Think it's important to note the players that were selected after Ely aswell as the 2018 AFL draft wasn't exactly the deepest draft. The only players selected after Ely that look like solid AFL players right now are James Jordan, Nick Hind and Bobby Hill.

Our recruiters likely took a gamble knowing the talent in the mid-bottom half of that draft wasn't all that great. Would love to know the players we were linked with.