Analysis 2021 draft thread

[mish33]

It's clear now since probably Bailey and Starce that the club is prioritising drafting for speed which makes sense in the modern game. Teams that can counter attack quickly are going to be more and more effective with the new rules.

It also looks like we are prioritising ultra height in our kpfs which I also think makes sense. In a fast break you don't need tall forwards to kick to, the smalls are the ones who get the ball. You need the talls to be a target and to minimise intercept marks.

 

[BuntonRules]

It's clear now since probably Bailey and Starce that the club is prioritising drafting for speed which makes sense in the modern game. Teams that can counter attack quickly are going to be more and more effective with the new rules.

It also looks like we are prioritising ultra height in our kpfs which I also think makes sense. In a fast break you don't need tall forwards to kick to, the smalls are the ones who get the ball. You need the talls to be a target and to minimise intercept marks.

I was gunna say that.

 

[blueiris]

Do Gold Coast still have NT as part of their Academy next season?

 

[briztoon]

Do Gold Coast still have NT as part of their Academy next season?

Yes.

 

[briztoon]

Good point. I think Eckersley is in the next draft and he's rated fairly highly.

Twomey has also been quietly talking up Jed Walter for GC’s academy in 2023.

This screen shot is from the draft board, for the 2023 draft, from the 2017/18 School Sports U12 AFL championships.

Pretty sure Calen Harrop was an Aspley junior, so should be in the Lions academy, if he’s still playing footy.

 

[jjami15]

Do Gold Coast still have NT as part of their Academy next season?

After the AFL handout, one that I was ok with, since seeing how they manage that club it should stop, seriously. They just can’t get out of their own way that mob down the road.

 

[Dalions]

After the AFL handout, one that I was ok with, since seeing how they manage that club it should stop, seriously. They just can’t get out of their own way that mob down the road.

Personally, I don’t think we can be too hard on GC for their salary cap issues.
They had 50 players on their list in the last 12 months. And they don’t have a higher salary cap than any other club, they have had to fit those 50 players into the same cap as every other club with what, is it 44 on other clubs lists?
So that probably leaves them about 500k less that they can pay the standard 44 players on their list in comparison to all other clubs.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

After the AFL handout, one that I was ok with, since seeing how they manage that club it should stop, seriously. They just can’t get out of their own way that mob down the road.

Something I've been a little bit miffed over is that half of Logan City is in Gold Coast's academy zone, and half is in ours. The zone boundaries should be council area boundaries, that's nice and logical. And Michael Voss was from Beenleigh, so it'd be a shame if the next big thing from there wasn't eligible for us. But I can't see that change happening until the Darwin zone is taken away from Gold Coast.

 

[scoman]

Something I've been a little bit miffed over is that half of Logan City is in Gold Coast's academy zone, and half is in ours. The zone boundaries should be council area boundaries, that's nice and logical. And Michael Voss was from Beenleigh, so it'd be a shame if the next big thing from there wasn't eligible for us. But I can't see that change happening until the Darwin zone is taken away from Gold Coast.

Might not lose the Darwin area until they get their own team.

Would love to see a Tasmania team and a NT team in the next ten years.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Are a combination of 3-4 of those picks worth 500 points more than a (hopefully) late first round pick? That's the going rate these days it seems.

think alot will depend if and how far geelong slip if they do. If our second rounder is say 25 and Brisbane’s first round pick is 16-18, then I can imagine it might get a bit more complicated with a future 2nd pick coming back geelongs way.

we definitely have the collateral to get you the required points. Our reserve pending positions is currently:

1x1st
1x2nd
3x3rd.
2x4th

The second third and fourths would boost your points up significantly from late first value.

 

[briztoon]

think alot will depend if and how far geelong slip if they do. If our second rounder is say 25 and Brisbane’s first round pick is 16-18, then I can imagine it might get a bit more complicated with a future 2nd pick coming back geelongs way.

we definitely have the collateral to get you the required points. Our reserve pending positions is currently:

1x1st
1x2nd
3x3rd.
2x4th

The second third and fourths would boost your points up significantly from late first value.

We won’t be able to take unlimited draft picks to the draft to cover bids.

We’ll probably have 5 picks at most. So our own second and third round picks, plus 3 picks traded in worth ~1500 odd points. I don’t believe 1 second and 2 third round picks will get it done.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

We won’t be able to take unlimited draft picks to the draft to cover bids.

We’ll probably have 5 picks at most. So our own second and third round picks, plus 3 picks traded in worth ~1500 odd points. I don’t believe 1 second and 2 third round picks will get it done.

give or take depending on ladder finishes of cause, say pick 30 + 2 mid third round picks is roughly 1400, then you could simply throw us your fourth or firth rounder and we will hand back an extra third. whatever you need further we can exchange picks probably.

would get a bit more complicated i can imagine if your first rounder and our second rounder are more close in proximity.

besides geelong i dont see another club having the capital as GC need their own second rounders for academy players next year

 

[blueiris]

We won’t be able to take unlimited draft picks to the draft to cover bids.

We’ll probably have 5 picks at most. So our own second and third round picks, plus 3 picks traded in worth ~1500 odd points. I don’t believe 1 second and 2 third round picks will get it done.

It depends on the Fletcher bid too some already have him as a top 18 pick

 

[Dalions]

We could conceivably just move our 2022 first into 2023 with a club like Melbourne who currently don’t have a 2022 first.
See if we can do a couple of trades with other picks to garner as many points as we can, possibly even trade someone like Ely Smith if he has a good year for a late 3rd/4th rounder.
And then just take a hit the year after, which will probably only take out the first of the 2 picks that we have in 2023 due to the points defecit.
We then still hopefully have a late first rounder left in 2023.
The second rounder might take a bit of a hit in 2023 as well with a Fletcher bid.

 

[scoman]

If we end up in a scenario where Ashcroft is a top 5 pick, Fletcher 15-25 and McMillon 30-40 we will be in a world of hurt points wise! But what a great situation to be in

 

[Dalions]

If we end up in a scenario where Ashcroft is a top 5 pick, Fletcher 15-25 and McMillon 30-40 we will be in a world of hurt points wise! But what a great situation to be in

We wouldn’t have to Match McMillan.
After taking all smalls this year and Ashcroft and Fletcher next, I think that I would prefer we try and get some talls to balance things out a bit.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Is Stalls the new term for medium sized players

 

[Dalions]

Is Stalls the new term for medium sized players

Jeez you were quick, I have since fixed that up.

 

[scoman]

We wouldn’t have to Match McMillan.
After taking all smalls this year and Ashcroft and Fletcher next, I think that I would prefer we try and get some talls to balance things out a bit.

Maybe not, but if he turns out to be good enough to go in the second round I'm not sure we would let him go just because we took smalls this year. Its likely we will be looking to fill 5 or 6 list spots next year so plenty of room for a couple of taller players. Its a shame there aren't any on the radar at these stage in our academy. We might have to look for some bargains on that front late in the draft. Perhaps a mature age player or two, or a rough diamond from a lower level league. Has worked before for key defenders, but a bit of a stretch for key forwards. My recent obsession might even be a chance if we decide we could do with a key forward on the cheap, in the event Fullerton and Smith fail to come on.

Edit: I should mention that Smith and Fullerton are sure to be given more time, but may ultimately be Ruck/ Fwd options rather than be able to play a similar role to Hipwood or McStay.

 

[mattsmob]

Maybe not, but if he turns out to be good enough to go in the second round I'm not sure we would let him go just because we took smalls this year. Its likely we will be looking to fill 5 or 6 list spots next year so plenty of room for a couple of taller players. Its a shame there aren't any on the radar at these stage in our academy. We might have to look for some bargains on that front late in the draft. Perhaps a mature age player or two, or a rough diamond from a lower level league. Has worked before for key defenders, but a bit of a stretch for key forwards. My recent obsession might even be a chance if we decide we could do with a key forward on the cheap, in the event Fullerton and Smith fail to come on.

In terms of talls from the academy I haven't seen much of McNeill who was mentioned on a previous page but I quite liked the look of Izak Gejas from the little I've seen of him. Similar to what we already have in that he's a fwd/ruck rather than a pure goal kicking forward though, moved pretty well and had strong hands.

 

[JasRulz63]

think alot will depend if and how far geelong slip if they do. If our second rounder is say 25 and Brisbane’s first round pick is 16-18, then I can imagine it might get a bit more complicated with a future 2nd pick coming back geelongs way.

we definitely have the collateral to get you the required points. Our reserve pending positions is currently:

1x1st
1x2nd
3x3rd.
2x4th

The second third and fourths would boost your points up significantly from late first value.

Dogs gave up pick 17 and 75 for 23, 44 and 45, with no future second moving around.

besides geelong i dont see another club having the capital as GC need their own second rounders for academy players next year

Teams will end up trading picks in next year, compensation picks will get added etc. I suspect we'll get some good offers for our pick if we do end up trading it, as bringing in a first round pick without giving up valuable players/future assets is something teams are generally interested in.

You're also assuming that GC's academy player/s will get rated highly enough for them to need second round picks to match. They haven't needed to match bids from their academy these last couple of years, but before that the only academy player I can remember them needed to match a bid for inside the first two rounds was Jack Bowes.

 

[jjami15]

Dogs gave up pick 17 and 75 for 23, 44 and 45, with no future second moving around.



Teams will end up trading picks in next year, compensation picks will get added etc. I suspect we'll get some good offers for our pick if we do end up trading it, as bringing in a first round pick without giving up valuable players/future assets is something teams are generally interested in.

You're also assuming that GC's academy player/s will get rated highly enough for them to need second round picks to match. They haven't needed to match bids from their academy these last couple of years, but before that the only academy player I can remember them needed to match a bid for inside the first two rounds was Jack Bowes.

I’m not sure what all the consternation is about. We should move out our first round pick for two first rounders in 2023. Hopefully there will be some talls in that draft. We can try to acquire more picks by trading our 2023 second, third, fourth for all I care. Two first round picks in 2023 and a top 5 pick at least in 2022 sounds pretty good to me. Fletcher and co we will just have to wait and see but should be able to be picked up later in the draft IMO.

 

[JasRulz63]

I’m not sure what all the consternation is about. We should move out our first round pick for two first rounders in 2023. Hopefully there will be some talls in that draft. We can try to acquire more picks by trading our 2023 second, third, fourth for all I care. Two first round picks in 2023 and a top 5 pick at least in 2022 sounds pretty good to me. Fletcher and co we will just have to wait and see but should be able to be picked up later in the draft IMO.

If Ashcroft ends up being a top 3 pick and we have a good season, I suspect our first round pick would be needed to trade for points (unless someone of value asks to be traded). Otherwise, I don't think we'd have enough if we traded it into the future. Would be a great situation to be in though.

 

[Balony_pony16]

2022 AFL draft >

Selection 1- Will Ashcroft.
Selection 2- Jaspa Fletcher.

Not to mention Riley McMillian.

what sort of player is Fletcher?

 

[scoman]

If Ashcroft ends up being a top 3 pick and we have a good season, I suspect our first round pick would be needed to trade for points (unless someone of value asks to be traded). Otherwise, I don't think we'd have enough if we traded it into the future. Would be a great situation to be in though.

I agree. Have done a few calculations on this and its not just about Ashcroft in the end. If Fletcher and even MacMillan go within the first 40 picks or so we are up against it pick wise. There is no way I can see that we can trade our first into 2023. We need to turn that first round pick into as many points as we can. Will probably end up having to try and bring forward our 2nd and 3rd rounders from 2023 as well. Collingwood and Western Bulldogs did some neat work this year to accumulate all those points. But they didn't have a second or third player to match as well, like we might.