Analysis 2021 draft thread

[JasRulz63]

With Ashcroft likely to be a top 3-5 pick, geelong is probably in the hot seat to do a trade to give you the points required as we have 3x3rd round, 2x 4th and our second rounder still if needed. Gold Coast will need their picks for academy products again.

Are a combination of 3-4 of those picks worth 500 points more than a (hopefully) late first round pick? That's the going rate these days it seems.

 

[Nunez]

Lots of words here which I've enjoyed very much, but at heart I'm a numbers man. After the dust has settled on the drafts it looks like we have the 9th oldest list going into season 2022, with an average age of 24.5. It's interesting to look at how these figures have changed over time:

View attachment 1288595

Couple of key take outs (for me anyway):

• This will be the oldest list we have ever had as a club (including the Bears era).
• However, there will still be 8 clubs who have older lists than ours. This speaks volumes for the gradual lengthening of player careers over the last 30 years or so, training standards and professionalism have increased, as well as medical advancements and changes to rules regarding player safety I guess.
• When the Bears first rose to prominence in 1995-6, it happened with a list that was, essentially, and in hindsight, in a rebuilding phase, noting the falling line from 1995 to 1998. The wooden spoon was achieved with the 3rd youngest list in the comp, which, again, with the benefit of hindsight, laid the platform for what was to come.
• Even in 2001, and allowing for the recruitment of guys like Martin Pike and Mal Michael, we won that flag with the 3rd youngest list in the comp.
• After that, and not surprisingly, we held onto most of our players, and topped up with a guy like Caracella, so by 2004 we had the 3rd oldest list. It happens pretty quickly!
• A few retirements, plus Aker's departure, probably forced the club's hand, but even so we had regenerated the list, at least from an age perspective, to build again by 2009.
• Unfortunately we probably went too hard at the trade table too soon, jumping from the 3rd youngest list in 2009 to the 5th oldest list in 2011. This meant we spent the next half decade sliding back into rebuilding mode.
• We bottomed out in 2016 and remained the youngest list in 2017, and the build since has arguably been the most measured and organised in the club's history. For the 1st time since 2011 we now find our list in the top half, age-wise, in the comp, and my take on this is that the iron is hot - time to strike. Very interested to know what everyone else reckons?

Some notes:

• The years 1993-6 are for the Bears. Apologies to ex-Fitzroy fans, the chart gets a bit busy with extra lines at the start and I wanted to plot the premiership era as accurately as possible for comparison purposes.
• The average age is reported by Draft Guru in the reverse order, which I prefer, but I wanted the lines above to appear somewhat correlated. Example: Draft Guru currently has Geelong as "1st" for the "oldest list", whereas if we were plotting their chart as per above, they would appear as "18th".

Quality post mate. Very interesting read.

 

[briztoon]

Surprised McMillan wasn't mentioned.

Just to clarify, not mentioned by who?

 

[scoman]

Was mentioned in this post from the previous page.



Unfortunately the club puts out sfa information about the academy, so unless you’re involved as a parent or sibling of an academy member, it’s next to impossible to know who is coming through.

There was another discussion about the QLD academies on the QAFL board today. Let’s just say there’s a lot of criticism of the academy from the QAFL clubs.

Yeah I had noticed that, I wonder if basketball is having an effect on talls. If you think back Queensland has produced quite a few from about 2013 - 2018

Just to us:

Jono Freeman
Harris Andrews
Eric Hipwood
Matthem Hammelmann
Conor Ballenden
Jackson Payne
Tom Fullerton

Gold Coast has also taken its fair share including one or two last year I think. We have also seen a few taken by other clubs as well. Go back further and we have always had one or two on our list as well as quite a few at other clubs.

But in the last couple of years the cupboard has been quite bare with very little on the horizon. I wonder if the rise in Basketball is taking its toll. I have a theory that Queensland traditionally produces a disproportionately high number of talls due to their body type not being suitable for league, union or soccer. Basketball has always been the logical competitor to AFL for lads on track to grow over 190cm. Does anybody know if we are losing some of these kids that might have played a bit of both and are now choosing basketball in their mid teens?

 

[Nunez]

Just to clarify, not mentioned by who?

In the article you shared.

 

[POBT]

Yeah I had noticed that, I wonder if basketball is having an effect on talls. If you think back Queensland has produced quite a few from about 2013 - 2018

Just to us:

Jono Freeman
Harris Andrews
Eric Hipwood
Matthem Hammelmann
Conor Ballenden
Jackson Payne
Tom Fullerton

Gold Coast has also taken its fair share including one or two last year I think. We have also seen a few taken by other clubs as well. Go back further and we have always had one or two on our list as well as quite a few at other clubs.

But in the last couple of years the cupboard has been quite bare with very little on the horizon. I wonder if the rise in Basketball is taking its toll. I have a theory that Queensland traditionally produces a disproportionately high number of talls due to their body type not being suitable for league, union or soccer. Basketball has always been the logical competitor to AFL for lads on track to grow over 190cm. Does anybody know if we are losing some of these kids that might have played a bit of both and are now choosing basketball in their mid teens?

I think the old AFLQ talent pathways used to actively look for tall kids playing other sports and try and attract them across to our games. I think that height used to also get you into the elite programs a lot easier than if you were 6 foot.

Qld had a period about 20 years ago where there was a constant pipeline of 200cm-ish types getting drafted. Some grew up playing footy and others picked the game up in their mid-teens. The emphasis on tall players was because it was thought they could make the transition to senior footy more easily than a smaller player - or, at least, you could get away with being less "talented" compared to your peers from traditional footy states.

I think now the talent search is more holistic which is a good thing. It feels like we're in a bit of a lull draft wise from a Qld perspective, albeit the fact that the Gold Coast can pre-list their local talent does distort things slightly.

You'd have to think the constant upsurge in junior participation numbers will flow through to elite talent. If it doesn't, the pathways will need close review.

 

[briztoon]

In the article you shared.

The article is from early in the year, before the academy series against GC, so before McMillan was on anyone’s radar.

 

[mish33]

It's clear now since probably Bailey and Starce that the club is prioritising drafting for speed which makes sense in the modern game. Teams that can counter attack quickly are going to be more and more effective with the new rules.

It also looks like we are prioritising ultra height in our kpfs which I also think makes sense. In a fast break you don't need tall forwards to kick to, the smalls are the ones who get the ball. You need the talls to be a target and to minimise intercept marks.

 

[BuntonRules]

It's clear now since probably Bailey and Starce that the club is prioritising drafting for speed which makes sense in the modern game. Teams that can counter attack quickly are going to be more and more effective with the new rules.

It also looks like we are prioritising ultra height in our kpfs which I also think makes sense. In a fast break you don't need tall forwards to kick to, the smalls are the ones who get the ball. You need the talls to be a target and to minimise intercept marks.

I was gunna say that.

 

[blueiris]

Do Gold Coast still have NT as part of their Academy next season?

 

[briztoon]

Do Gold Coast still have NT as part of their Academy next season?

Yes.

 

[briztoon]

Good point. I think Eckersley is in the next draft and he's rated fairly highly.

Twomey has also been quietly talking up Jed Walter for GC’s academy in 2023.

This screen shot is from the draft board, for the 2023 draft, from the 2017/18 School Sports U12 AFL championships.

Pretty sure Calen Harrop was an Aspley junior, so should be in the Lions academy, if he’s still playing footy.

 

[jjami15]

Do Gold Coast still have NT as part of their Academy next season?

After the AFL handout, one that I was ok with, since seeing how they manage that club it should stop, seriously. They just can’t get out of their own way that mob down the road.

 

[Dalions]

After the AFL handout, one that I was ok with, since seeing how they manage that club it should stop, seriously. They just can’t get out of their own way that mob down the road.

Personally, I don’t think we can be too hard on GC for their salary cap issues.
They had 50 players on their list in the last 12 months. And they don’t have a higher salary cap than any other club, they have had to fit those 50 players into the same cap as every other club with what, is it 44 on other clubs lists?
So that probably leaves them about 500k less that they can pay the standard 44 players on their list in comparison to all other clubs.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

After the AFL handout, one that I was ok with, since seeing how they manage that club it should stop, seriously. They just can’t get out of their own way that mob down the road.

Something I've been a little bit miffed over is that half of Logan City is in Gold Coast's academy zone, and half is in ours. The zone boundaries should be council area boundaries, that's nice and logical. And Michael Voss was from Beenleigh, so it'd be a shame if the next big thing from there wasn't eligible for us. But I can't see that change happening until the Darwin zone is taken away from Gold Coast.

 

[scoman]

Something I've been a little bit miffed over is that half of Logan City is in Gold Coast's academy zone, and half is in ours. The zone boundaries should be council area boundaries, that's nice and logical. And Michael Voss was from Beenleigh, so it'd be a shame if the next big thing from there wasn't eligible for us. But I can't see that change happening until the Darwin zone is taken away from Gold Coast.

Might not lose the Darwin area until they get their own team.

Would love to see a Tasmania team and a NT team in the next ten years.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Are a combination of 3-4 of those picks worth 500 points more than a (hopefully) late first round pick? That's the going rate these days it seems.

think alot will depend if and how far geelong slip if they do. If our second rounder is say 25 and Brisbane’s first round pick is 16-18, then I can imagine it might get a bit more complicated with a future 2nd pick coming back geelongs way.

we definitely have the collateral to get you the required points. Our reserve pending positions is currently:

1x1st
1x2nd
3x3rd.
2x4th

The second third and fourths would boost your points up significantly from late first value.

 

[briztoon]

think alot will depend if and how far geelong slip if they do. If our second rounder is say 25 and Brisbane’s first round pick is 16-18, then I can imagine it might get a bit more complicated with a future 2nd pick coming back geelongs way.

we definitely have the collateral to get you the required points. Our reserve pending positions is currently:

1x1st
1x2nd
3x3rd.
2x4th

The second third and fourths would boost your points up significantly from late first value.

We won’t be able to take unlimited draft picks to the draft to cover bids.

We’ll probably have 5 picks at most. So our own second and third round picks, plus 3 picks traded in worth ~1500 odd points. I don’t believe 1 second and 2 third round picks will get it done.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

We won’t be able to take unlimited draft picks to the draft to cover bids.

We’ll probably have 5 picks at most. So our own second and third round picks, plus 3 picks traded in worth ~1500 odd points. I don’t believe 1 second and 2 third round picks will get it done.

give or take depending on ladder finishes of cause, say pick 30 + 2 mid third round picks is roughly 1400, then you could simply throw us your fourth or firth rounder and we will hand back an extra third. whatever you need further we can exchange picks probably.

would get a bit more complicated i can imagine if your first rounder and our second rounder are more close in proximity.

besides geelong i dont see another club having the capital as GC need their own second rounders for academy players next year

 

[blueiris]

We won’t be able to take unlimited draft picks to the draft to cover bids.

We’ll probably have 5 picks at most. So our own second and third round picks, plus 3 picks traded in worth ~1500 odd points. I don’t believe 1 second and 2 third round picks will get it done.

It depends on the Fletcher bid too some already have him as a top 18 pick

 

[Dalions]

We could conceivably just move our 2022 first into 2023 with a club like Melbourne who currently don’t have a 2022 first.
See if we can do a couple of trades with other picks to garner as many points as we can, possibly even trade someone like Ely Smith if he has a good year for a late 3rd/4th rounder.
And then just take a hit the year after, which will probably only take out the first of the 2 picks that we have in 2023 due to the points defecit.
We then still hopefully have a late first rounder left in 2023.
The second rounder might take a bit of a hit in 2023 as well with a Fletcher bid.

 

[scoman]

If we end up in a scenario where Ashcroft is a top 5 pick, Fletcher 15-25 and McMillon 30-40 we will be in a world of hurt points wise! But what a great situation to be in

 

[Dalions]

If we end up in a scenario where Ashcroft is a top 5 pick, Fletcher 15-25 and McMillon 30-40 we will be in a world of hurt points wise! But what a great situation to be in

We wouldn’t have to Match McMillan.
After taking all smalls this year and Ashcroft and Fletcher next, I think that I would prefer we try and get some talls to balance things out a bit.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Is Stalls the new term for medium sized players

 

[Dalions]

Is Stalls the new term for medium sized players

Jeez you were quick, I have since fixed that up.