Analysis 2021 draft thread

[blueiris]

He really slowed down JVR in the Colts Grand Final, JVR had 3 goals in the first quarter before Bazzo was moved onto him.

My main point about replacing Gardiner was that if one of Adams/Payne can shutdown the opposition best genuine key forward we then put Andrews on the resting ruck/least dangerous tall so he can zone off and intercept. We then have Starc/Answerth to go to the most dangerous smalls/utility. Who does Gardiner go to? Sure he could shutdown the 4th or 5th most dangerous forward but at that point we might as well have someone that can intercept and rebound while still not having to defend a very dangerous forward. Another point is that the 3rd tall defender/interceptor can be one of the most impactful positions on the field, look at Ridley, Sicily, Lever, Stewart, Haynes and the list could go on, if we could add someone who could turn out to be that then we should imo.

I honestly think you’re underestimating how good of a defender Gardiner is Adams has never played a full season for the Lions Payne hasn’t really shutdown any key forwards from what I’ve seen Gardiner is a best 22 defender who most clubs would love to have

 

[Da Game]

I think we'll want our first 3 picks as early as possible this year

The two Hawthorn picks

That's a downgrade of 2 first rounders for one future second round. If you compare it to previous live trades, we paid a future second (got back a future fourth) for a one position swap to get Deven Robertson. Similarly Collingwood paid a future 1st + 4th for 24,30 and future 4th last year. Depending on whose still available on draft board and how clubs rate them, we may get a much higher premium on 14+18 in draft night compared to +200 points.

If you want both of our picks, your pick 5 or future first needs to be in play in some combination. That'll make us consider the trade for sure.

EDIT: Looking at the players available, it still doesn't make sense for us to go for one high pick compared to going for 2 picks in teens. If we were desperate for one particular player, I see us try that pick 5 + change trade with you, but I think we'll keep our hand and go drafting this time.

If you expect us to finish bottom 6 next year then it’s picks 21,24 this year and @23 next year for 14,18 this year. Picks between 14 to 24 are going to get u good players not stars like Top 10 so u can potentially end up with 3 players to our 2 players of similar talent and production

 

[Dalions]

The two Hawthorn picks

If you expect us to finish bottom 6 next year then it’s picks 21,24 this year and @23 next year for 14,18 this year. Picks between 14 to 24 are going to get u good players not stars like Top 10 so u can potentially end up with 3 players to our 2 players of similar talent and production

The pick next year will be used for points only so doesn’t get us a player at all.
So we give 2 decent picks this year for 2 worse picks this year and points for next.
Doesn’t do it for me.

 

[bungalow_bill]

History tells us there will be a few duds in the top 10 and a few guns 10 to 20 ish. Next to no chance we trade 14/18 unless it's to move up the draft

 

[mattsmob]

I honestly think you’re underestimating how good of a defender Gardiner is Adams has never played a full season for the Lions Payne hasn’t really shutdown any key forwards from what I’ve seen Gardiner is a best 22 defender who most clubs would love to have

I'm not arguing he's a bad defender, I'm saying he doesn't have the size for the best key forwards and when he's matched up on them can give away poor free kicks, I'd prefer Starce and Answerth to take the smalls/utilities and personally I'd like more intercepting and rebounding from my 3rd tall.
Either way the spot is his for next season and so it should be, how he comes back from injury and performs next season will have a big impact on whether I believe he should be overtaken in 2023.

 

[JasRulz63]

If you expect us to finish bottom 6 next year then it’s picks 21,24 this year and @23 next year for 14,18 this year. Picks between 14 to 24 are going to get u good players not stars like Top 10 so u can potentially end up with 3 players to our 2 players of similar talent and production

If that's the case, why would Hawthorn do the trade? Whatever logic you applied to how this trade benefits Hawthorn, is the same reason why we wouldn't do the trade and would rather keep our picks.

 

[twhowler]

I honestly think you’re underestimating how good of a defender Gardiner is Adams has never played a full season for the Lions Payne hasn’t really shutdown any key forwards from what I’ve seen Gardiner is a best 22 defender who most clubs would love to have

Agree with this.
He’s a very good player when right.
He was in great form against gold coast when he got injured, even took a little speccie in the backline. That says to me that as long as he recovers from this injury then he shouldn’t be viewed as crocked.

i do worry that the shoulder might become an issue now but hoping he has plenty of time to get it right.
Before this year his games played was: 18,19,29,24,18 (shorter year).
Not the record of a perennially injured player.
Love Adams when fit but how can anyone confidence he will play more than 10 games a year?!

 

[a mayes ing]

Why wouldnt we trade next years 1st into a highish draft this year? We can get another good player rather than just use it for points. Even if we take a downgrade for 2023 points, l think it is fine to get another good pick

 

[mpal6]

Why wouldnt we trade next years 1st into a highish draft this year? We can get another good player rather than just use it for points. Even if we take a downgrade for 2023 points, l think it is fine to get another good pick

After what happened to Collingwood this season, clubs would definitely be a bit apprehensive trading out future firsts. I was of the same view earlier this year and really wanted to bring our 2022 first forward. But now after seeing how tight we are with list spots, it makes sense to spread our list profile a bit more rather than cramming all firsts this year and then struggle to create opportunities for them.

With Fletcher and McMillan creating a bit of interest already, we will have more flexibility to maneuvre for points if we retain our first next year.

 

[BangyBangy]

History tells us there will be a few duds in the top 10 and a few guns 10 to 20 ish. Next to no chance we trade 14/18 unless it's to move up the draft

But the trade I proposed to you gave you an extra 25 points for next year....

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Which draft boards?

I can genuinely say I don’t recall reading his name.

I recall a few draft watchers moving him into the third round or the late second round after the interstate game a month or two back. Before that he wasn't on any boards at all that I had seen.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

If we really want KPD depth, we could do worse than Blake Schlensog from South Fremantle, formerly of Geelong.

 

[Quigley]

On the Gardner discussion for me it is not really who is a better player between Payne and Gardner it is what combination of players allows us to get the most out of Andrews. For me I really like Payne in there as he has a bigger body than both Gardner and Adams and with another offseason I think he takes the super tall forwards the best, freeing up Harris to play more of an intercept role. Gardner or Adams then play on the third tall which again allows us to get the most out of them, outmarking and running off the less dangerous options. I just think the unit is better with Payne in there and less open to be exploited for height.

 

[twhowler]

On the Gardner discussion for me it is not really who is a better player between Payne and Gardner it is what combination of players allows us to get the most out of Andrews. For me I really like Payne in there as he has a bigger body than both Gardner and Adams and with another offseason I think he takes the super tall forwards the best, freeing up Harris to play more of an intercept role. Gardner or Adams then play on the third tall which again allows us to get the most out of them, outmarking and running off the less dangerous options. I just think the unit is better with Payne in there and less open to be exploited for height.

I'm agnostic as to the make of the backline re Payne vs Gardiner but Gardiner has to be ahead of him at the moment. His best has been very good. He is slightly smaller than Payne but can take 195cm forwards and with Andrews (especially fit again) and Adams (went to another level this year) that's all we need from Gardiner. He is also quite a good kick - Payne at this stage is a bit iffy.

Don't get me wrong I like Payne - and he has good speed and intercept ability. I just think at this stage he starts as the 4th key defender. That could change.

There is also every chance he gets a chance through injury to Adams or Gardiner, so he should get some games.

It will be interesting to see if they try Payne forward. He didn't look a natural vs the dogs he's an option.

Best 22 next year will be interesting.

With hippy out we would play about 4 of the following players, who I would not consider Locks: Robertson, Ah Chee, Robinson, Cockatoo, Prior, Fort, Fullarton, Sharpe, Lester, Payne, Madden, Answerth.

I hope the mindset from the coaches is: spots are genuinely up for grabs, put your best foot forward.

 

[briztoon]

I'm agnostic as to the make of the backline re Payne vs Gardiner but Gardiner has to be ahead of him at the moment. His best has been very good. He is slightly smaller than Payne but can take 195cm forwards and with Andrews (especially fit again) and Adams (went to another level this year) that's all we need from Gardiner. He is also quite a good kick - Payne at this stage is a bit iffy.

Don't get me wrong I like Payne - and he has good speed and intercept ability. I just think at this stage he starts as the 4th key defender. That could change.

There is also every chance he gets a chance through injury to Adams or Gardiner, so he should get some games.

It will be interesting to see if they try Payne forward. He didn't look a natural vs the dogs he's an option.

Best 22 next year will be interesting.

With hippy out we would play about 4 of the following players, who I would not consider Locks: Robertson, Ah Chee, Robinson, Cockatoo, Prior, Fort, Fullarton, Sharpe, Lester, Payne, Madden, Answerth.

I hope the mindset from the coaches is: spots are genuinely up for grabs, put your best foot forward.

Agnostic???

 

[bungalow_bill]

Agnostic???

Probably means he's on the fence

 

[twhowler]

Agnostic???

In the non-religious sense - I don't mind at all if Payne or Gardiner plays.

Whereas I was rather the zealot about Mr Birchall making way

 

[Johnny Bananas]

On the Gardner discussion for me it is not really who is a better player between Payne and Gardner it is what combination of players allows us to get the most out of Andrews. For me I really like Payne in there as he has a bigger body than both Gardner and Adams and with another offseason I think he takes the super tall forwards the best, freeing up Harris to play more of an intercept role. Gardner or Adams then play on the third tall which again allows us to get the most out of them, outmarking and running off the less dangerous options. I just think the unit is better with Payne in there and less open to be exploited for height.

If Adams moves to cover third tall forwards, then we'll need another KPD for depth, and should stay well away from third tall defender types like Bazzo because we'll already be set there.

 

[mattsmob]

If Adams moves to cover third tall forwards, then we'll need another KPD for depth, and should stay well away from third tall defender types like Bazzo because we'll already be set there.

That's for the now, in a couple years a tall backline of Andrews, Payne and a Bazzo type would be ideal.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

That's for the now, in a couple years a tall backline of Andrews, Payne and a Bazzo type would be ideal.

Would it? Adams would have just hit 30 and Gardiner would still be 28. I don't know why people are so keen to throw them both onto the scrapheap.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Draft watcher eDPS has released his latest tier rankings. Annoyingly, there are only 13 players in his top three categories in the open pool. However, this does not include Matthew Johnson. We can hope Fremantle or West Coast really want Amiss, also.

Draft Expert - eDPS’s Cream Of The Crop 2021

Hello all and welcome back to another exciting year for potential AFL draftees, this thread will be dedicated to all things draft in 2021 and beyond. Be on the lookout for player notes, rankings and a rolling mock draft which have become a staple and as always I’m happy to answer any draft...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Draft watcher eDPS has released his latest tier rankings. Annoyingly, there are only 13 players in his top three categories in the open pool. However, this does not include Matthew Johnson. We can hope Fremantle or West Coast really want Amiss, also.

Draft Expert - eDPS’s Cream Of The Crop 2021

Hello all and welcome back to another exciting year for potential AFL draftees, this thread will be dedicated to all things draft in 2021 and beyond. Be on the lookout for player notes, rankings and a rolling mock draft which have become a staple and as always I’m happy to answer any draft...

www.bigfooty.com

Bit surprising to see how Arlo Draper has dropped in many rankings lately. It doesn't seem to be performance based - maybe just others rising. From what I've seen and heard, if he fell to one of our picks he'd be a bit of a steal.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Bit surprising to see how Arlo Draper has dropped in many rankings lately. It doesn't seem to be performance based - maybe just others rising. From what I've seen and heard, if he fell to one of our picks he'd be a bit of a steal.

I feel like we have plenty of that mid-forward type already, but if he's the most talented player available I'll still be happy.

 

[POBT]

I feel like we have plenty of that mid-forward type already, but if he's the most talented player available I'll still be happy.

I reckon he could play a few roles. He looks to be a heads up player to me, is prepared to bite off difficult kicks and could conceivably play half back as well as mid/forward. I'd be interested in his combine results?

 

[mattsmob]

I reckon he could play a few roles. He looks to be a heads up player to me, is prepared to bite off difficult kicks and could conceivably play half back as well as mid/forward. I'd be interested in his combine results?

He looked like one of SA’s best across half-back in I believe it was the second WA vs SA game. In the same game he had a shoulder injury that finished his season so I don’t think he would have participated in the combine.