Analysis 2021 draft thread

[jjami15]

If I did a phantom draft, I'd have JVR and Owens as our picks. I don't want us to use 14 on a KPP, but it sticks in my mind that Conole rated JVR as being the best on ground in the interstate game, and I'm not sure he'd want to risk him sliding to 18. Daly has mentioned inside and outside players, ideally looking for some outside run, and Owens combines outside run with ball winning. I can see him being picked up to play on the wing when McCluggage gets moved inside full-time.

I’ll play;
16 - Chesser (Sinn is my wish but think he’ll be gone)
20 - Owens
40ish - Charlie Dean

 

[mattsmob]

I believe most of the non KPP’s in the 15 to 25 range (which is probably 9 out 10 players), look pretty good.

It’s just quite a few don’t fill a need, as they are either mid forwards or smaller mids.

Tyler Sonsie, Arlo Draper, Zac Taylor, Sam Butler and Judson Clarke all look quite capable, and most of them probably make it, but would be behind Rayner and Bailey, and Ashcroft next year, as mid forwards.

I’d probably have all, or most of them, ahead of Mitch Knevitt and Mitch Owens.

I would have Sinn ahead of them all, with Chesser ahead of a lot of them, with Wilmot and Tom Brown in the mix in their as well.

And I would probably have all or most of them ahead of JVR and Bazzo.


Depends on how the draft plays out, but with all the kids I’ve listed above, on pure talent, I’d rate Sinn, Sonsie, Chesser and Taylor as the top 4, and wouldn’t be disappointed if we drafted two of them as best talent available at our first two picks.

Yeah I think we just slightly differ on how we view them, Sinn the best of the names you've listed with Draper the next best with a small gap after him. Chesser, Wilmot, Brown and Butler ahead of the other names and all I'd take in the 15-20ish range. I'd then have Bazzo probably just behind those guys but ahead of the other names you've mentioned, the gap between Bazzo and the second 'tier' of players mentioned isn't very big in my view so I wouldn't mind taking him as a needs pick with similar if not higher upside.

 

[Section 5]

I’ll play;
16 - Chesser (Sinn is my wish but think he’ll be gone)
20 - Owens
40ish - Charlie Dean

I don't know much about the draft guys other than what i read on BF.
I will get around to watching some of the highlight videos about 1 week before draft night

However i hope the Club take the first two picks for our future and one speculative at 41+.
The 41+ pick to be someone that they believe is possibly ready to step up to AFL level
We need one eye on the future, but we are also in a premiership window.

So i like your Charlie Dean pick at 41:- Height: 195cm Weight: 86kg Date of Birth: 19/06/01
I also like Greg Clark as i have mentioned before, way back on page 19

The Fothergill–Round–Mitchell Medal is a Victorian Football League (VFL) award that is presented to the most promising young talent in the VFL competition.
Some good past winners of this medal so defiantly worth a selection.
Below winners from 2009 with Charlie Dean taking out last years award

2009	Michael Barlow	Werribee
2010	Michael Hibberd	Frankston
2011	Ahmed Saad	Northern Bullants
2012	Dean Towers	North Ballarat
2013	Kane Lambert	Northern Blues
2014	Nic Newman	Frankston
2015	Adam Marcon	Williamstown
2016	Luke Ryan	Coburg
2017	Bayley Fritsch	Casey Demons
2018	Josh Corbett	Werribee
2019	Jake Riccardi	Werribee
2020	not awarded	[16]
2021	Charlie Dean	Williamstown

 

[briztoon]

Soooo, hello my old friend…

I have been listening to Conole’s mid year interview on Road to the Draft again. And thinking about our current list needs. And thinking back to previous Conole interviews as well.

One thing Conole said previously, is that team needs do influence the recruiting teams view of what constitutes best available talent.

It’s pretty obvious we need to add to our KPP stocks, more so tall defenders, but we need at least one tall at either end.

It’s unlikely that we’ll manage this at this year’s draft, unless we go and redraft Matt Hammelmann with our third pick.

I believe it’s a fair chance we draft Van Rooyen with our first pick, unless Josh Sinn is still on board.

It looks much more likely that we can add outside run and carry at our second selection, whether that player be an outside mid or defender, than a KPP rated around that selection.

I don’t see our recruiting team adding a pure inside mid at any of our picks, and I believe we prioritise a KPP ahead of outside run, unless we get a player we rate inside the top two tiers, slipping to our first pick.

 

[POBT]

I think that's a definite possibility. However, I also am not ruling out us having our eye on a more unknown prospect at #41 to play a KPD role. It is a role where you can select someone for their athletic traits and attitude before proven underaged footy performance. I'm thinking of a guy like Justin Clarke

Justin Clarke

Age

31

Ht

195cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.3

3star

MG

185.0

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

8.2

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

who didn't have the footy runs on the board but had competitiveness, professionalism and good physical attributes. Or a crossover athlete like a Merrett who maybe will take some time to come through.

We also don't need a superstar as a key defender. Andrews is 24/25 and so has a good 6 or 7 years to go leading the defence.

The list of good key defenders taken away from the top end of the draft is pretty compelling. I started to make a list before realising that it is so common to find a best 22 tall defender.

McGovern
Barrass
Pearce
Butts
Aliir
Jonas

That's just from the WA/SA clubs.

 

[jackess]

I don't think we need either but we shouldn't be ignoring KPPs too many drafts in a row. With our age profile I definitely wouldnt use a first rounder on a KPD though. Has to be someone we think is a good chance to end up a forward.

Happy to go into 2022 with Andrews, Adams, Gardiner, Payne, Lester or even McStay down back and Daniher, Hipwood, McStay, Fort and Fullarton in the forwardline

 

[briztoon]

I don't think we need either but we shouldn't be ignoring KPPs too many drafts in a row. With our age profile I definitely wouldnt use a first rounder on a KPD though. Has to be someone we think is a good chance to end up a forward.

Happy to go into 2022 with Andrews, Adams, Gardiner, Payne, Lester or even McStay down back and Daniher, Hipwood, McStay, Fort and Fullarton in the forwardline

I agree with this, but my gut feel is that our recruiting and list management team don’t.

There’s a fair chance that a unheralded key defender or third tall is available at our third pick. I’m not so sure about a potential key forward though. Conole has mentioned the lack of KPP’s in this draft before.

The one potential wild card might be Alex Lukic, who was the 2019 U16 AA key forward from Vic Metro, who had a disappointing season this year. He has shown he poses the athletic tools that most of the later mentioned KPP’s don’t.

 

[jjami15]

I would be rather disappointed if we took a KPP with one of our first two picks. I know that a KPD and eventually a KPF is a need but think that there isn't too much at our first two that I would take.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I would be rather disappointed if we took a KPP with one of our first two picks. I know that a KPD and eventually a KPF is a need but think that there isn't too much at our first two that I would take.

True, I feel like that if we are going to still follow Nobes philosophy around list management/recruitment, in regards of trading for needs and drafting for best available talent, we won't be going for a KPP with our first two picks in the first round and would probably go for best player available, regardless of position or status. I think many on here would agree on me that the best possible outcome for us would be getting Sinn to the club, but I just really can't see it happening given Richmond, St. Kilda or Essendon have picks before us and will most likely choose him IMO. If that's the case, I reckon we might go for someone like Chesser who plays a similar role to Sinn, is a great character/work-ethic on/off-field and plays for Sandringham Dragons as well, given the Ashcroft F/S connection for us in next year's draft.

 

[jackess]

Wanganeen-Milera has a contested possession rate of 40-45% in his SANFL Seniors and reserves appearances, this "can't win his own ball" is one of the biggest myths of the draft class

 

[jackess]

I think KPPs at the top end of the draft are usually a reach and then trading for them is extremely difficult as we know from our 10 year search post Jonathan Brown.

 

[briztoon]

I think KPPs at the top end of the draft are usually a reach and then trading for them is extremely difficult as we know from our 10 year search post Jonathan Brown.

I don’t necessarily believe that is correct. There’s probably more of a hit and miss strike rate for KPP’s at the top of the draft, compared to mids. But the top half of the draft is where the better KPP’s, particularly forwards are drafted.

 

[briztoon]

That’s pretty good really, especially for an outside player. Below 25-30 percent is where the red flags should be raised.

 

[Nunez]

That’s pretty good really, especially for an outside player. Below 25-30 percent is where the red flags should be raised.

I was surprised at how good that is. Feel much more comfortable about picking him now.

 

[Dalions]

I don’t necessarily believe that is correct. There’s probably more of a hit and miss strike rate for KPP’s at the top of the draft, compared to mids. But the top half of the draft is where the better KPP’s, particularly forwards are drafted.

Its probably partially because KP’s taken very early in particular, end up at shit clubs and are asked to do way too much way too early and it stuffs with their head.
A KP taken at our first or second pick This year will not have that pressure to perform straight away, so may develop really well and be rip raring ready to go in 2024.

 

[briztoon]

True, I feel like that if we are going to still follow Nobes philosophy around list management/recruitment, in regards of trading for needs and drafting for best available talent, we won't be going for a KPP with our first two picks in the first round and would probably go for best player available, regardless of position or status. I think many on here would agree on me that the best possible outcome for us would be getting Sinn to the club, but I just really can't see it happening given Richmond, St. Kilda or Essendon have picks before us and will most likely choose him IMO. If that's the case, I reckon we might go for someone like Chesser who plays a similar role to Sinn, is a great character/work-ethic on/off-field and plays for Sandringham Dragons as well, given the Ashcroft F/S connection for us in next year's draft.

I’ve been going back and doing a little research on Chesser. There’s not much vision.

He was an AA at U16 level at half back, and played wing and half back at those U16 Championships.

From RookieMe Draft Central.

National Championships: U16 All Australian team announced

WITH the Under 16 Division 1 and 2 championships run and done after three exciting rounds, the representative All Australian team has been announced. We take a look at the squad members in a state-by-state breakdown, with Division 1 winners Vic Metro boasting the most representatives (seven)...

central.rookieme.com

And from AFL.com.

AFL EYE-CATCHERS: U16 All Australian Team

AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan has revealed the 2019 NAB AFL Under-16 All Australian Team following last Friday’s conclusion of the NAB AFL Under-16 Championships in Queensland.

www.afl.com.au

 

[RoyBoy17]

Have come around on the idea of Sinn at our first pick. Any two of Johnson/Sinn/Goater/ Draper/Brown/Wilmot would be good.

Whilst highly unlikely, if Johnson, Goater and Sinn are available at 14(16) who do you reckon we would take? Hard to split. Johnson probably the safest. Other two have bigger upside.

 

[mattsmob]

Have come around on the idea of Sinn at our first pick. Any two of Johnson/Sinn/Goater/ Draper/Brown/Wilmot would be good.

Whilst highly unlikely, if Johnson, Goater and Sinn are available at 14(16) who do you reckon we would take? Hard to split. Johnson probably the safest. Other two have bigger upside.

That's a real tough one, I think Johnson's upside is quite high as well. I'm probably going Goater, Johnson, Sinn. All very close but Goater's explosiveness for his size is elite and more beneficial than Sinn's speed out of the backlines, Johnson is one of my favourite players in this years draft but as you pointed out doesn't have the one elite trait that elevates his ceiling, I've got a couple question marks on Sinn's game which put him third however think there's plenty to work with given his height and athleticism, all seem like great characters that are willing to work hard so I think all have long career's ahead.

 

[cotter101]

I think we will try trade up for Sinn if we need. Don’t see us taking a KPP with our first.

 

[Crimso]

I would love Chester, I really hope he isn’t a “cat”.

 

[blueiris]

I think we will try trade up for Sinn if we need. Don’t see us taking a KPP with our first.

We haven’t been linked to anyone so not sure we trade up for anyone and just draft who’s best available at our picks I get most of our board wants Sinn but I wouldn’t be pinning hopes on it happening

 

[Simba Moyo]

Conole mentioned trading up where possible but also seemed pretty happy with how our picks were, and unless it’s a top 10 pick I doubt we’d trade two first rounders. It looks like there could be a few melts if we pick up JVR with either of those first round picks and he’s someone who I’ve started coming around to. Whilst we’re not screaming out for a KPP, but he shows great versatility and aggression which is very refreshing and feel like he would’ve been a top 10 lock had the season gone on longer.

Ideally, we grab a tall mid like Knivett/Owens as I feel like they would make a great addition to our team long term. I’d be pretty happy with Sinn as a Richy replacement

 

[Dalions]

Conole mentioned trading up where possible but also seemed pretty happy with how our picks were, and unless it’s a top 10 pick I doubt we’d trade two first rounders. It looks like there could be a few melts if we pick up JVR with either of those first round picks and he’s someone who I’ve started coming around to. Whilst we’re not screaming out for a KPP, but he shows great versatility and aggression which is very refreshing and feel like he would’ve been a top 10 lock had the season gone on longer.

Ideally, we grab a tall mid like Knivett/Owens as I feel like they would make a great addition to our team long term. I’d be pretty happy with Sinn as a Richy replacement

I would be happy if we take JVR with pick 20 but would prefer we just take best available with pick 16. Sinn and Johnson are my 2 preferred there. But maybe both will be gone.
It may be that if our first choices are gone at 16 we may take JVR and then take an Owens or Knevitt at 20. If of course these are the players the club rates?

 

[Simba Moyo]

I would be happy if we take JVR with pick 20 but would prefer we just take best available with pick 16. Sinn and Johnson are my 2 preferred there. But maybe both will be gone.
It may be that if our first choices are gone at 16 we may take JVR and then take an Owens or Knevitt at 20. If of course these are the players the club rates?

By all accounts Johnson isn’t lasting past west coast pick, but if he somehow gets through I’d happily take him. Sinn seems like a chance. I just feel like JVR deserves a bit more recognition and someone who could be a solid contributor at senior level

 

[pulpdriver]

I think we will try trade up for Sinn if we need. Don’t see us taking a KPP with our first.

It's probably too far away to tell at this point but it kinda feels like we could get Sinn at our first pick without needing to trade based on the current projections from journos and informed posters. NWM seems like the good fit we'd probably need to trade up to if we want. Maybe the Saints pick?