Analysis 2021 trade thread

[The Flying Belgian]

Oliver was a massively risky pick at the time. In hindsight it was the right pick but he'd basically exploded in the second half of the TAC Cup season with little form prior and often you'll see those guys flame out rather than keep alight.

See: Ely Smith.

 

[martinson]

See: Ely Smith.

Every draft pick is risky isn't it.

Except it seems Walsh.

Rowell created a millstone for himself the way he played in those first 3 games. Hard to keep living up to that once everyone thinks you're a champ after 3 games.

It's been very tough for draftees who can't crack the Senior team the last 2 years. It's hard proving yourself on the preps. these kids have through the covid era.

 

[martinson]

Hipwood coming back and having any significant impact in 2022 is a long shot imo and we should be prepared for that.

 

[BuntonRules]

See: Ely Smith.

Bit of difference in pick 4 and pick 20, or thereabouts. Mind you Melbourne reached for Petracca and Jackson too.

 

[briztoon]

'Next years draft' is supposedly 'strong' every year at this time. I swear this is my annual obligatory post to point this out

This isn’t actually correct.

2017 wasn’t considered a strong draft crop at all, very much laking in top end talent and depth.

2018 was very much talked about as having the deepest top end talent seen in a decade or more, from their U16 championships.

2019 wasn’t considered strong or deep, as there was a lack of top Vic talent beyond Rowell, based off the U16 championship

This year’s draft crop was much talked about from their U16 carnival. Vic Metro dominated, and had some highly rated kids who missed selection due to the depth of the metro squad. Then each of the other teams had some good top end players as well, and were considered pretty even.

The 2016 championships have always been an early indicator of that future drafts strength or weakness.

This year got in an U17 championships at the beginning of the season. Plus the Northern academies played state based series. And we’ve seen a lot of U17’s in the SA and WA Colts and reserves.

What next years draft is considered to have is a deeper top end talent group, of 5 players. There is also a good mix of KPP’s throughout the potential first round. And a pretty even spread of talent from each state. The only perceived downside is the lack of taller mids in next year’s draft crop, a lot of 6 foot or under mids.

One point of interest, is if the Vic talent looks shallow at the National U16 championships, it’s often considered a weak draft, because typically 55%+ of the draft pool comes from Victoria.

 

[briztoon]

Bit of difference in pick 4 and pick 20, or thereabouts. Mind you Melbourne reached for Petracca and Jackson too.

Petracca wasn’t a reach. He was very much considered the top talent in the draft.

Jackson wasn’t considered a reach either. He was runner up in the U18 championships Larke medal, coming second by 1 point to Deven Robertson. The big discussion was, would a team be brave enough to select an undersized ruck so high.

 

[briztoon]

Maybe project is a stretch but it definitely wasn't a safe pick.

I agree with that.

I did exclaim, “crazy balls” at that pick back in 2017.

 

[briztoon]

Oliver was a massively risky pick at the time. In hindsight it was the right pick but he'd basically exploded in the second half of the TAC Cup season with little form prior and often you'll see those guys flame out rather than keep alight.

Yup. Oliver was a big, (like really BIG) round kid. Missing selection in the U18 Championships drove him on to lose a lot of weight, and he really came from way back to dominate the TAC cup. Even still, he lost a lot more weight in his first preseason at Melbourne.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Bit of difference in pick 4 and pick 20, or thereabouts. Mind you Melbourne reached for Petracca and Jackson too.

Point is, picking players who have a rapid rate of development in their draft year might be a strategy, but there's no evidence to say it's better than selecting based on consistent display as a junior.

Anyway, this is the trade thread, so....

 

[briztoon]

with picks I do wonder as said with smaller lists will you go for developing pick.
Or get players who can slot in more quickly.

Can see a lot of Vic kids left to hope they can play overage next year
a lot might just not carry on as well after 2 years of hardly any games
The late bloomers never got a chance

Remember it’s an U19 competition now, though the draft age is still 18.

 

[BangyBangy]

I think we need a mature ruck/forward who can play while Hippy off

Look at the other top 8 teams only GWS seem to play one a lot of the time although have Briggs and Flynn who played with Mummy.

Demons Gawn/Jackson
Dogs Martin/English or Young/English
Cats Stanley/Hawkins/Ratulogoa and Blicavs
Port Lycett/Ladhams
Swans Hickey/McClean
Essendon Draper/Wright

Edit looking at stats for the year
Fullarton avg 3.5.. 42 hitouts from 12 games best 8,6,6,4,4,4
Joe 49 hitouts 9,6,6,5,4
Luke Jackson avg 10.4 and worst he did playing second fiddle to gawn was 5 hitouts in a match
Hawkins avg 3.7 playing forward.

I don't quite get the notion of why we need a mature ruck / forward until Hipwood gets back.

I don't recall Hipwood rucking much.

We are going to be very tight for spots as is. I certainly wouldn't want to be using one for a short term fix.

Who do you think is out there that genuinely presents as a clearly superior option to Fullarton for next year?

Of the teams above that you have posted, I'd only really consider Gawn / Jackson and Lycett / Ladhams as superior to our ruck setup of Big O & whoever he's paired with. Would love to get someone like Ladhams to our club, was thinking that last year too. Not easy to attract a second string ruck from another club to move to your club to once again be a second string ruck though is it?

Very easy to see the grass being greener. Not sure it is.

 

[briztoon]

See: Ely Smith.

From the draft watchers, Ely Smith was always considered a second half of the second round prospect, in the early to mid 30’s.

 

[briztoon]

Hipwood coming back and having any significant impact in 2022 is a long shot imo and we should be prepared for that.

I agree, but it’s not a popular notion around here.

 

[martinson]

Petracca wasn’t a reach. He was very much considered the top talent in the draft.

Jackson wasn’t considered a reach either. He was runner up in the U18 championships Larke medal, coming second by 1 point to Deven Robertson. The big discussion was, would a team be brave enough to select an undersized ruck so high.

Just on Petracca I haven't seen a player come along like him in a long time. The guy has something really special and you could build a team around his impact if he stays fit and well.

And he was drafted in 2014.

So sometimes it takes time.

 

[briztoon]

Point is, picking players who have a rapid rate of development in their draft year might be a strategy, but there's no evidence to say it's better than selecting based on consistent display as a junior.

Anyway, this is the trade thread, so....

Ummm, I believe there’s a lot of research being done by club recruiting departments on rate of improvement.

Of course there are a lot of other factors that combine with rate of improvement. A players biometrics and athletic traits, growth rate/spurt, birth month, if a kid has come from a multi sport background and is now focusing solely on football, etc.

There’s a lot of research done in the States on this topic, of course they’re looking at other sports, but the principals would be the same.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Petracca is a bit of a late bloomer hopefully Rayner is the same

Poor Saints must be ruing taking McCartin at pick 1

 

[BangyBangy]

Petracca is a bit of a late bloomer hopefully Rayner is the same

Poor Saints must be ruing taking McCartin at pick 1

Poor saints my arse.

Billy Longer trade..... Just like the rest of the pile on teams, were more than happy to feed off us when we were at our lowest.

Never forget. Never forgive.

 

[martinson]

Ummm, I believe there’s a lot of research being done by club recruiting departments on rate of improvement.

Of course there are a lot of other factors that combine with rate of improvement. A players biometrics and athletic traits, growth rate/spurt, birth month, if a kid has come from a multi sport background and is now focusing solely on football, etc.

There’s a lot of research done in the States on this topic, of course they’re looking at other sports, but the principals would be the same.

It's been my experience in some sports and business endeavours I follow , that the ones to really watch are those who improve rapidly, sometimes out of nowhere ,and are improving at a much faster rate than their contemporaries.

I don't have much idea about AFL draftees but when it was pointed out that Oliver came out of nowhere and had made rapid improvement to me ,probably naively, that would be a reason to draft him. So I'd be interested to know if that factor generally doesn't result in the ability to keep getting better.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Poor saints my arse.

Billy Longer trade..... Just like the rest of the pile on teams, were more than happy to feed off us when we were at our lowest.

Never forget. Never forgive.

What did we get for Longer?

 

[BuntonRules]

What did we get for Longer?

More than he was worth.

 

[Nunez]

What did we get for Longer?

Did you know the Hawks tried to trade in Longer from the Saints, however the Saints wanted to keep Longer and offered McEvoy. How crazy is that

 

[Scubaveg]

You sure? Which player has won more centre clearances?

Which can run more then 5 mins without blowing up?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[bungalow_bill]

Did you know the Hawks tried to trade in Longer from the Saints, however the Saints wanted to keep Longer and offered McEvoy. How crazy is that

Hawks dodged a bullet

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Did you know the Hawks tried to trade in Longer from the Saints, however the Saints wanted to keep Longer and offered McEvoy. How crazy is that

 

[BangyBangy]

More than he was worth.

Perhaps in hindsight. But not at the time.

In hindsight they would've left him with us.