List Mgmt. 2022 Draft Thread

[doggies ftw]

Starting to feel like we may miss out on Hollands now. Blues seem to be keen, they need an outside running type to compliment their inside brigade. And apparently he is a Blues fan as well. All the players I would like to slip to us at 11 (12) seem to be more likely to be gone now. At this point Busslinger seems to be the most likely to reach us. I would hope not. Intercept defenders can be found everywhere. We need man on man types, and those willing to fight for each contest. Not ball watch or quit running and drop their heads like half our defence do.

Buss seems pretty competitive to my eye, they just prefer him to intercept because he’s so good at it. I don’t think any teams are taking an intercept defender who is completely suspect one on one in the top 10 or so.

For the guys who have watched him more than me; is it a case of him not being able to defend or just that he doesn’t play that role because he’s so effective loose?

 

[_Cerberus_]

Say we're at our third pick. Hollands and George are in Dogs jumpers, and it's pick 39 or roughly thereabouts. There's an undersized key forward who Twomey has ranked at 30, and a big-bodied KPD he's ranked at 31. Are we taking the forward because he's best available?

You just skipped over the key part where they said best available for the early picks, not the late one.

You're like a record on repeat at the moment haha. I know you're passionate that we get a defender. I LOVE that passion don't get me wrong.

But you always go best available at Pick 11. Obviously if you have a KPD and someone else rated the same at 11, then you go the need. If you make a reach for anyone at 11, you have to be certain that player will contribute early and have a long career. Best available approach means a much higher percentage odds of finding a solid 200 gamer, where reaching hard your odds of getting a good 200 gamer is significantly reduced and you run a higher risk of getting someone who won't make the grade. If you reached every time, you will end up with a poor list with many more misses than hits. The key to drafting well is having a high success rate on your picks, compared to the league average whether its early or late picks. So you have more hits and less wasted picks.

I know you bring up the same approach in your debate with the later picks. But early and late picks are not the same. Later picks are just that. You can afford to take more risks. The higher picks are premiums, and don't always come about, that is why you gamble on them much less. That is why teams always try and stockpile on first rounders any chance they get.

That is why we won't be "reaching" for anyone at 11. Weddle and Hayes are still a chance to be there at 21, and I am happy to trade up and grab one of them if needed. I agree with you that we need a defender. But you're worried about something that has not happened yet. I have been pushing the fact we have not had a young developing key defender for probably longer than you have (years now). But I wouldn't burn my membership if we passed on one. To be honest I do not think we will pass on one, but miss out instead as other teams between 11 and 21 will mop up Hayes and Weddle. I'd still be stoked to land quality players like Konstanty, Clarke, George at 21.

I'd trust the club to make the right call. If the club feels Hayes or Weddle wont make it at this level. Because lets be honest, the level of forwards in the under 18's this year was poor. Stephen Hawkins in his scooter could probably cover most of them. Remember everyone wanted us to get Gould who was rated around the same pick as Weddle and Hayes? Look where he is now. Looks likely to be a bust. McAsey a high level first round pick similar style to Busslinger. Though Buss is a little quicker and a better kick. But its more the point even those talked up high can turn into a miss. If Gould was in this draft, you'd be begging the club to draft him.

I only want us to get a defender IF we feel and know they will become a good player. And not draft one purely for the sake of it, that we end up with a bust. A blown pick and STILL needing a defender. We went and got O'Brien last season and we know how that turned out. It was an example of a desperation move in my opinion.

 

[Mojorisin]

Say we're at our third pick. Hollands and George are in Dogs jumpers, and it's pick 39 or roughly thereabouts. There's an undersized key forward who Twomey has ranked at 30, and a big-bodied KPD he's ranked at 31. Are we taking the forward because he's best available?

At that point in the draft if our recruiters have a medium forward ranked one spot above a KPD and both are available I'd go the list need. In the first two rounds I Don't like selected for needs unless there is nothing else separating the two prospects. Later on in the peice if there is no obvious slider I'm all fo trying to fill list holes.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Starting to feel like we may miss out on Hollands now. Blues seem to be keen, they need an outside running type to compliment their inside brigade. And apparently he is a Blues fan as well. All the players I would like to slip to us at 11 (12) seem to be more likely to be gone now. At this point Busslinger seems to be the most likely to reach us. I would hope not. Intercept defenders can be found everywhere. We need man on man types, and those willing to fight for each contest. Not ball watch or quit running and drop their heads like half our defence do.

This seems pretty harsh on Busslinger.

 

[Dale4captain]

This seems pretty harsh on Busslinger.

I really like busslingers fit in our backline. I don’t get the doubters all potting him for not being defensive enough. That’s the easy shit to learn. The intercept game is harder to teach and is generally the stuff young guys don’t develop for years.

 

[Mojorisin]

I really like busslingers fit in our backline. I don’t get the doubters all potting him for not being defensive enough. That’s the easy s**t to learn. The intercept game is harder to teach and is generally the stuff young guys don’t develop for years.

Personally I haven't seen enough mongrel in him for my liking.

 

[_Cerberus_]

This seems pretty harsh on Busslinger.

I wasn't meaning to imply Busslinger does those, and edited post accordingly. I am saying that our defenders do that. Thus the preference for a legit man on man defender over intercept types as my preference. It's good to get a couple of extra intercept grabs, but its not gonna change our very poor one on one win rate. Hayes and Weddle are rated more rounded/better at one on ones. Busslingers lack of pace and lack of exposure to man on man contests is why he is falling down the charts.

I am not against getting Busslinger if the club feels we can really use his intercept ability and feel he is decent to cover one on one when needed. I'm just saying I rate other players more around that mark at 11 should they be there. And like Hayes and Weddle more defence wise, not that we should flat out not get him.

 

[_Cerberus_]

I don’t get the doubters all potting him for not being defensive enough. That’s the easy s**t to learn. The intercept game is harder to teach and is generally the stuff young guys don’t develop for years.

Of the countless sports I play, and its always me in defence. I find playing loose and intercepting roles the easiest. Even when I was a new player. You just need to be able to read the play well, know how to position yourself, but without the pressure of worrying about a direct opponent. Whilst the best at that role are normally high game IQ players or very experienced, and can make that role damaging as. It is still an much easier role in general, than having to win a man on man battle every minute for a whole game.

Even if man on man is "more coachable", which it is easier to coach. But you still need someone with the athletic ability to be able to play that role, and most do not have the physical ability to do so. Easiest to learn, but hardest to apply. Have been on teams that have had to run a full zone type defence as we had to many players who couldn't keep up man on man.

That is why in many sports, especially locally, you often see less athletic, new or older players dumped into that loose man role. So they don't get exposed one on one, especially if the opponent is full of quicker or more physical players. I find playing man on man harder personally, because you're made to work harder. Getting physical, always running, having to constantly watching where your opponent is, and if you stuff up, it is on you directly, than the whole team.

If man on man was that easy, then we should be asking our coaches and players why we have the worst one on one win rate in the league? That is why myself personally rate people who can play well man on man, because its much harder and more effective if you're good at it. Id pick a Dale Morris over Jake Lever any day.

Once again I am not against getting Busllinger. I just wonder how he fits in if Darcy is playing that role. And if Naughton gets pushed back if Bruce finds form again. I just feel players who can win the one on ones is a bigger weakness on our team right now than someone just floating about and picking it off. Hence prefer Weddle or Hayes who have been involved in more one on one contest. But not only that, they have shown they have the athleticism as well.

 

[TiAn_]

I really like busslingers fit in our backline. I don’t get the doubters all potting him for not being defensive enough. That’s the easy s**t to learn. The intercept game is harder to teach and is generally the stuff young guys don’t develop for years.

Isn’t it really more about the individual player than a broad brush “this is easier to learn than that”? It depends on a player’s aptitudes.

 

[dogwatch]

If anyone watched every single game the Dogs played this season and was happy with our back line (on stats either worst or second worst in the league) this year you are kidding yourself. Yes, game style comes into it but so does personal. No one here is truly happy with just Jones coming in to help fix this issue?

We seriously do need to draft a pair of developing backmen, Welts is right, we've ignored it for way too long.

But how much of our backline performance was due to personnel deficiencies and how much was due to coaching deficiencies? (My guess is it's a bit of A and a bit of B unfortunately.)

The point is, of course, if we draft a high quality pair of defenders with our top 2 picks are we at risk of fixing the wrong problem? If it's really due to a bit of A and B perhaps Jones and one draftee developing defender is a sufficient response.

 

[Claudonious]

Yes. Humphrey has a lot of good stuff to work with. That power, forward craft and agility is a great combination.
I dislike his decision making but he can improve that under an elite forward coach….

He doesn’t talk much either, and gets around with a vest and no pants - but if he has talent I can live with that.


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[doggies ftw]

I wasn't meaning to imply Busslinger does those, and edited post accordingly. I am saying that our defenders do that. Thus the preference for a legit man on man defender over intercept types as my preference. It's good to get a couple of extra intercept grabs, but its not gonna change our very poor one on one win rate. Hayes and Weddle are rated more rounded/better at one on ones. Busslingers lack of pace and lack of exposure to man on man contests is why he is falling down the charts.

I am not against getting Busslinger if the club feels we can really use his intercept ability and feel he is decent to cover one on one when needed. I'm just saying I rate other players more around that mark at 11 should they be there. And like Hayes and Weddle more defence wise, not that we should flat out not get him.

I agree we need more capable one on one defenders but intercept markers is probably just as big a need IMO. We currently cant defend one on one but also have probably up there with the lowest intercept numbers in the comp, even though we set up an aggressive zone in defence.

So ideally wed fill both holes but if we can’t I’m content picking the best player in the draft to fill one of them, and Buss looks like he could do it to a seriously high level.

There’s also the consideration of what fits our style better, whilst I’d love a more defensive mindset in defence it remains to be seen whether personnel is even the main issue here, with everything we’ve seen from Bevos defences over his time I’d suggest a Buss type will have more of a positive impact in our set up. I really think a Collins type defender would seriously struggle if asked to play 10m in front in our defence.

I think our use of Jones next year will tell us a lot, he’s a beast of a genuine FB at his best, let’s see if Bevo is happy to compromise his defensive setup to play Jones to his strengths. If he’s not - well we’re better off targeting intercept players that can defend a little rather than defenders who can intercept a little.

 

[Dav1d]

I think Buss hasn’t been used as a proper key defender in his development
My worry hasn’t been if he lacks the ability but if he’ll be able to put on the size when it comes to one on one using strength

That all said, he protects dangerous parts of the forward line. Runs really hard to give his teammates another option when attacking & is a decent user of the ball for a tall backman

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Starting to feel like we may miss out on Hollands now. Blues seem to be keen, they need an outside running type to compliment their inside brigade. And apparently he is a Blues fan as well. All the players I would like to slip to us at 11 (12) seem to be more likely to be gone now. At this point Busslinger seems to be the most likely to reach us. Not my main preference. As I feel Intercept defenders can be found everywhere.

We need more man on man type defenders than intercept types, and those willing to fight for each contest. Half our defence ball watch or quit running and drop their heads when beat on the lead, its not a good look.

It's interesting there does seem to be a very clear consensus top 11 (12 if you include Buss) to me, but maybe that's just because I'm focusing on that pick.

 

[weltschmerz]

It's interesting there does seem to be a very clear consensus top 11 (12 if you include Buss) to me, but maybe that's just because I'm focusing on that pick.

Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Phillipou, Mackenzie, Ginbey top 10, with Buss and Hollands on the edge.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Phillipou, Mackenzie, Ginbey top 10, with Buss and Hollands on the edge.

Yep that's the list

 

[ossie_21]

Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Phillipou, Mackenzie, Ginbey top 10, with Buss and Hollands on the edge.

I’m not really a draft follower, so it’s annoying that the draft is still 4 weeks away.

But essentially, we would most likely take any of those 10 that slide, or Busslinger or Hollands if they are all gone? I wonder if the need to take a KPD would push Buss to the top of our list anyway

 

[hatescaptcha]

Would be stoked with Busslinger with our first.


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[weltschmerz]

I’m not really a draft follower, so it’s annoying that the draft is still 4 weeks away.

But essentially, we would most likely take any of those 10 that slide, or Busslinger or Hollands if they are all gone? I wonder if the need to take a KPD would push Buss to the top of our list anyway

Yeah, I reckon Buss might be the one who lands with us anyway. Carlton apparently very keen on Hollands. If it falls that way, Buss seems like a genuine case of best available.

 

[LittleG]

Yeah, I reckon Buss might be the one who lands with us anyway. Carlton apparently very keen on Hollands. If it falls that way, Buss seems like a genuine case of best available.

The question will be IF our recruiters think he is best available. They might think another player is OR they might even trade back….
It’s all a guessing game now. There are no more games to watch of these young guys, so most phantom drafts will stay the same until right before the draft…. when someone might get some good inside info….

 

[flipper83]

Ashcroft, Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Humphrey, Clark, Phillipou, Mackenzie, Ginbey top 10, with Buss and Hollands on the edge.

The West coast pick could decide who's available to us. It's rumoured that they are targeting local talent and, if Ginbey guess before their pick as if also rumoured, they could take Busslinger or even uber if Hewett or Allen.
If Carlton are set on Hollands then someone like Philippou it Makenzie might get to us.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

The question will be IF our recruiters think he is best available. They might think another player is OR they might even trade back….
It’s all a guessing game now. There are no more games to watch of these young guys, so most phantom drafts will stay the same until right before the draft…. when someone might get some good inside info….

Just gotta wait for Twomey in a couple weeks time. I reckon we end up with one of Hollands or Busslinger at this point. Doesn't bother me that much, I'm more interested in that Pick 21. Really hoping for Darcy Jones

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Just gotta wait for Twomey in a couple weeks time. I reckon we end up with one of Hollands or Busslinger at this point. Doesn't bother me that much, I'm more interested in that Pick 21. Really hoping for Darcy Jones

Jones at 21 would be amazing

 

[weltschmerz]

Jones at 21 would be amazing

Buss, Jones, and a stopper like Van Es would be a great draft. Two backmen and a long-term prospect who could be another Shai Bolton.

 

[Ash1337]

The West coast pick could decide who's available to us. It's rumoured that they are targeting local talent and, if Ginbey guess before their pick as if also rumoured, they could take Busslinger or even uber if Hewett or Allen.
If Carlton are set on Hollands then someone like Philippou it Makenzie might get to us.

I think maybe Eagles will look at Clark if he's there at 8 despite the local talent talk. I think Suns have already identified who they want in Ginbey. They always seem to be pretty open on who they're taking at draft time.