Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[perrdan86]

He won't stick too many tackles at AFL level watching those highlights and his desire to chase and tackle is just average for a small forward. He's no Kossie Pickett if that's the type we're looking for and that's why we take Curtin the classy tall we desperately need. The Wiz certainly knows where the goals are and has X Factor but we need a more physical, pacy pressure small forward to balance out our list given that Ginnivan has now arrived. This view may boggle your mind but we need Key Position players to start developing now with this list that we're putting together more than a small forward who may not deliver on his potential due to his physical limitations against AFL sized players.

But Curtin said he sees himself as a midfielder..

 

[Judd2Sewell]

To me The Wizard has far better foot skills and does not kick if 15 metres side ways all time !
Looks quicker and more agile!
Also by far better in the air and has great decision making and awareness?
But I have only seen his highlights and you have seen a lot more of him probably?


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Better foot skills than Daniel? Never mine "far better?" That's an outrageous claim.

Daniel is the best kick in the league (sub 50m).

 

[Bugs1977]

If it were 2014 and Watson was Watson back then, do you think he'd be top 5? Or is it maybe that players like Kosi and Daniel have softened the market for shorter players?

Drafts tend to follow trends, teams once placed a premium on talls but are now more hesitant because 2012 - 2015 yielded Patton, Boyd, Schache and McCartin as top 2 picks. Meanwhile shorter players like Lachie Neale and Touk Miller have won Brownlows, AFLCA MVPs and AFLPA MVPs.

I see Watson as a great player, but I also see a top 5 pick as an over-correction.

The game today is no where near as physical as it was in 2014 and the addition of different rules that has sped up the play of the ball to inflate scoring opportunities makes it a lot easier for small forwards to succeed. The ball is coming into the forward line so quick these days that once it hits the ground and you can't keep up with dynamic forwards it's almost a guaranteed goal. No one is saying a player like Watson won't have his moments where his height causes a mismatch for him but he'll also have times where it's the opposite and he's gone like a flash.

 

[KermitJagger]

So both Daniel and Pickett played significant roles in winning premierships in only their second year, and have maintained a high standard ever since?

Forgive me for suggesting this is not your strongest argument against picking Nick Watson.


Ps. Your suggestion that goal nous is comparable is beyond silliness. I don't think Daniel has kicked as many goals over the entire span of his career (junior and senior) as Watson kicked just this year.

They haven't maintained a high standard, Daniel and Pickett reached a good standard early and have not materially improved. For both the Bulldogs and Melbourne respectively, the far bigger contributor for was that they have genuine game breaking midfielders in Petracca and Bontempelli.

On goal sense, what is beyond silliness is trying to make a comparison on pure goal numbers between a Victorian and a kid from SA. In Caleb Daniel's 3 U18 games he averaged a shade under 3 goals a game with a couple of the best crumbing goals you'll see, Watson averaged 3.5. Daniel played SANFL league football otherwise, against men, Watson might have more goals but they were kicked against a completely different standard of opposition.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

But Curtin said he sees himself as a midfielder..

He also said he models his game on Pavlich.

 

[kirbatron]

watching that first highlight from the vic metro game last year I instantly fell in love with Wiz.... i remember thinking who tf is this bloke... small yes, freakish absolutely.

Its time to inject some more genuine electricity & fun into this team. Life is short

 

[TDS7]

He also said he models his game on Pavlich.

He also said the only thing that could stop him winning a flag in his first three seasons is the Caledonian mafia's grip on "Big Footysocks".

Maybe we back the footy club to figure out the best position for him instead of just what gets said in post-match interviews.

 

[FuzwaldQO]

Would be easier to give Suns 49 and 62 (410 points), they give us (Dons) F3 and 71. 71 (29) will come in and be worth more by the time we need it to match for Dear. Then we could do the deal with the Demons and get 42 (395 points), that and 71 will be worth more than what we lost anyway. If they wanted more we could even make it 49, 62, 63 for F3 and 66. We would lose a few more point but nothing we can't manage. Still have plenty for Dear

Following on from this post, which if you didn't see the previous posts was about how to get better outcome from the Dee's proposed trade. In a nutshell, Dee's trade (4, 62, 63 for 6, 11, 42) was a thanks but no thanks because of their refusal to trade future picks. Hence I suggested the trade above with the Suns who need points this year. That gets us the F3 we need to be able to trade our F1.

So to use the second Suns trade I suggested in case they want more return, our picks after that would be:
4, 44, 47, 66 (and the Dons f3)

Then we talk to the Demons. No need to worry about any future picks now, and tbh it's a good deal. But now we have traded with the Suns, we don't have 62 and 63. We can add 66 if they want, we don't really need it with the points we would have. So we trade 4, 66 for 6, 11, 42 and we end up with:
6, 11, 42, 44, 47. Two good 1st round picks and 1073 points. Which with f/s discount (and before the picks become lower from earlier bids) means we could match around pick 12 for McCabe? But that would be higher once the picks move. We would be safe that we had enough to match an early bid for McCabe and still have enough to match Dear.

I would then suggest that we take O'Sullivan with pick 6. Why? because it looks like GWS want him. If he is on the board the next pick, they likely take him. So with him off the board, that gives us a chance to offer 11 and Pies F2 (maybe takes our F1 but I'd rather use 11 and F2) to them for that next pick. If successful, we can then take the best available left who could be Caddy, Wilson, Leake, or even Curtin (how I hear you ask? I'll put a spoiler below on a possible draft order that gets him there). And tbh if he is there, I would go for him. O'Sullivan, Curtin, and McCabe. All different defenders, and sets our back line up for this generation.

Spoiler: Curtin to pick 7

Not worrying about f/s bids...
1. WC - Reid
2. Nth - Duursma
3. Nth - McKercher
4. Dees - Watson/Sanders
5. Dogs - Watson/Sanders
6. Hawks - O'Sullivan
7. Hawks - Curtin

 

[H00t]

Wiz is really talented. That’s clear to see from his highlight videos. It’s also why he will go for a high pick.

But his height will definitely be a worry at the top level. When he’s having to go against players 15cm taller and 15 kgs heavier he isn’t going to be winning many contests in the air or on the ground.

If he’s able to find space he will be able to play well. Come finals though that space disappears and the pressure goes up massively.

For such a high pick I’d prefer someone who can be the cake to winning a flag not someone who is more likely to be the icing on top.

Reid>McKercher>=Duursma>Curtin>Watson.

We want fully know how each will go at the top level until they play. But I think it’s fair to have some misgivings about Watson due to his height.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Its time to inject some more genuine electricity & fun into this team. Life is short

Watching Eddie Betts sure would have been fun for Adelaide and Carlton supporters. I sure as hell know I had more fun watching 4 flags being won during Eddie's career. Not to say that Watson can't bring us to that level - but if the club backs Curtin or Duursma or anyone else as being the best fit to win us flags I hope that is the metric they are using.

 

[Blackhawk42]

If he’s able to find space he will be able to play well. Come finals though that space disappears and the pressure goes up massively.

.

This years Norm Smith medal winner is a pure small forward at 175cm and 71kg.

 

[TylerDurden]

Wiz is really talented. That’s clear to see from his highlight videos. It’s also why he will go for a high pick.

But his height will definitely be a worry at the top level. When he’s having to go against players 15cm taller and 15 kgs heavier he isn’t going to be winning many contests in the air or on the ground.

If he’s able to find space he will be able to play well. Come finals though that space disappears and the pressure goes up massively.

For such a high pick I’d prefer someone who can be the cake to winning a flag not someone who is more likely to be the icing on top.

Reid>McKercher>=Duursma>Curtin>Watson.

We want fully know how each will go at the top level until they play. But I think it’s fair to have some misgivings about Watson due to his height.

All of the talls we've taken in the top 10, Bud and Rough aside, have been absolute busts.

Not saying Curtin will be, but the height metric means squat.

 

[A1fromDay1]

Bring in the wizard and have him torment the Dons round 1 at the G

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Page 200 - how appropriate. This will be my last post for a while since I'm going on some leave. I'll leave you with the following information.
1. Our offer to Eagles is still there and hasn't officially been rejected (though not many doubt it will be).
2. We believe (good signs so far) we'll be able to do a pick swap on the night with another team which if it is accepted will mean we'll be going for one of Caddy, O'Sullivan, Leake or Wilson.

That's all. To those that have believed me I had done most of the trades paperwork and it's now up to other staff to do the drafts paperwork whilst I take a (hard earned) sabbatical. To those that haven't believed me, my mum has kicked me out of her basement made me put some clothes on and confiscated my computer

It's been fun. See you in a few weeks.

KL - thanks for all of your posts. Enjoyable reading.
PS. I hope she didn't kick you too hard.

 

[H00t]

This years Norm Smith medal winner is a pure small forward at 175cm and 71kg.

Hill was able to take advantage of some pretty lax lions defending.

I probably could have worded it a little better in that their is typically less space in finals.

Small forwards generally struggle in finals, there will always be the exception to the rule.

Thats the hope with Wiz if we draft him, that he will be the exception.

 

[H00t]

All of the talls we've taken in the top 10, Bud and Rough aside, have been absolute busts.

Not saying Curtin will be, but the height metric means squat.

That’s because the players we’ve picked haven’t been good enough or worked hard enough.

Their height hasn’t been actively hindering them though. That’s the thing with Watson he faces a massive challenge where he has to be so much better in certain aspects to match it with players who are 180+.

No doubt he could come on and be a fantastic player. I think he will come on sooner than Curtin as well, no matter who ends up the better player.

I just think the odds are Curtin will be the better player. Who is really the other choice we will have.

I think if one of McKercher or Duursma slide we will go them.

 

[Rowie6]

Better foot skills than Daniel? Never mine "far better?" That's an outrageous claim.

Daniel is the best kick in the league (sub 50m).

He probably does kick it over 15 metres better!

 

[Mayblooms34]

Don't shoot the messenger but just by chance I spoke to a couple of people who are closely involved with the upcoming draft and both said they rated Ryley Sanders above Harley Ried and are surprised his name is not mentioned more regarding our pick. He did win the Lark medal for best player in the National Championships. Do not be surprised if his name is called out Monday.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Wiz is really talented. That’s clear to see from his highlight videos. It’s also why he will go for a high pick.

But his height will definitely be a worry at the top level. When he’s having to go against players 15cm taller and 15 kgs heavier he isn’t going to be winning many contests in the air or on the ground.

If he’s able to find space he will be able to play well. Come finals though that space disappears and the pressure goes up massively.

For such a high pick I’d prefer someone who can be the cake to winning a flag not someone who is more likely to be the icing on top.

Reid>McKercher>=Duursma>Curtin>Watson.

We want fully know how each will go at the top level until they play. But I think it’s fair to have some misgivings about Watson due to his height.

He's going to be playing against guys that are quick and are bigger/stronger literally every single game he plays.

Having said that he does have lightning quick reactions and reflexes, so on the flip side I could see him pulling a goal out of his arse in tight finals. Like Charlie Cameron in the Granny, he didn't get a touch in the first half and barely got a kick for the game, but still snuck 3 goals in. And our side is sorely lacking that kind of magic in our forward line, especially with Breust close to retiring.

 

[houdinihuddo]

But Curtin said he sees himself as a midfielder..

Posters keep on claiming Daniel sees himself as a midfielder and yet when I had a good conversation with him at the draft combine, without hesitation he told me he sees himself as a defender and went on to talk about the role he played in the WAFL and how much he enjoyed it.

 

[H00t]

He's going to be playing against guys that are quick and are bigger/stronger literally every single game he plays.

Having said that he does have lightning quick reactions and reflexes, so on the flip side I could see him pulling a goal out of his arse in right finals. Like Charlie Cameron in the Granny, he didn't get a touch in the first half and barely got a kick for the game, but still snuck 3 goals in. And our side is sorely lacking that kind of magic in our forward line, especially with Breust close to retiring.

He’s going to do some very special things at the top level. His goal against ports SANFL team for instance was really good.

What he will probably find the most challenging is getting constantly involved in games. If he manages to find get his hands on the ball enough he will be a star.

He will be going against bigger guys and it will be tough for him. Come finals though everything goes up another notch and a lot of players have been found out over the journey. He will have more challenges though as the game normally becomes more contested in finals. Which is where he will have the most difficulty.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

This years Norm Smith medal winner is a pure small forward at 175cm and 71kg.

And the Norm Smith has barely ever gone to a key forward even if they have dominated on the day. Does that mean you don't take the best KPF available at your pick with a top 5 pick?

 

[Hodgey 15]

Page 200 - how appropriate. This will be my last post for a while since I'm going on some leave. I'll leave you with the following information.
1. Our offer to Eagles is still there and hasn't officially been rejected (though not many doubt it will be).
2. We believe (good signs so far) we'll be able to do a pick swap on the night with another team which if it is accepted will mean we'll be going for one of Caddy, O'Sullivan, Leake or Wilson.

That's all. To those that have believed me I had done most of the trades paperwork and it's now up to other staff to do the drafts paperwork whilst I take a (hard earned) sabbatical. To those that haven't believed me, my mum has kicked me out of her basement made me put some clothes on and confiscated my computer

It's been fun. See you in a few weeks.

Thanks mate for your info.

 

[Blackhawk42]

And the Norm Smith has barely ever gone to a key forward even if they have dominated on the day. Does that mean you don't take the best KPF available at your pick with a top 5 pick?

Not quite the point.

Small forwards 'generally' struggling in finals when the pressure goes up is absolutely no reason not to draft Watson, who is coming into the AFL next season as potentially the highest rated and most talented junior of his position in history.

 

[excitingnews]

Mitchell had been screaming out for some x-factor since he took the job. Having Ginnivan and the wiz in the forward line will cause more opposition whinging than we’ve seen in a long time. GET IT DONE