Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[Hawthorn23]

TEW!!!!

I appreciate the work Twomey does but the Essendon side of him shows with the pessimism in that last sentence. Seems that he does not want us getting him cheap

 

[kenneje]

I appreciate the work Twomey does but the Essendon side of him shows with the pessimism in that last sentence. Seems that he does not want us getting him cheap

Pisses me off at times as well, but think he's just being realistic here.

 

[Brishawk]

I thought the whole idea of these next-gen academies was that clubs bring in young talent from diverse backgrounds that wouldn't have otherwise played this code of footy or wouldn't have received the same development expertise afforded to players in the traditional pathways. In exchange for investing in these kids that clubs would have priority access to them in the draft.

So I don't understand why this "officially being approved and listed" stuff is only happening now. Surely the eligibility is confirmed when they join the academy in the first place. And if a player hasn't joined an academy until this point because the club in question hasn't invested anything in them, then why should they gain the benefit of priority access?

The next gen academies are a lollie to keep clubs quiet about the northern academies. Its all bullshit and they should all be scrapped.

 

[A Diakos]

The next gen academies are a lollie to keep clubs quiet about the northern academies. Its all bullshit and they should all be scrapped.

not much of a "lollipop" when you can only access them of no one pick them in top 40

unlike the academies

 

[FB19]

I thought the whole idea of these next-gen academies was that clubs bring in young talent from diverse backgrounds that wouldn't have otherwise played this code of footy or wouldn't have received the same development expertise afforded to players in the traditional pathways. In exchange for investing in these kids that clubs would have priority access to them in the draft.

So I don't understand why this "officially being approved and listed" stuff is only happening now. Surely the eligibility is confirmed when they join the academy in the first place. And if a player hasn't joined an academy until this point because the club in question hasn't invested anything in them, then why should they gain the benefit of priority access?

You talk as though any of the AFL policies, procedures and governance is the outcome of planning and forethought.

 

[TylerDurden]

“Don’t arguing, rag-dolling men”: Draft prospect turning heads in the WAFL

He has been impressive for Claremont.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Billyc]

I appreciate the work Twomey does but the Essendon side of him shows with the pessimism in that last sentence. Seems that he does not want us getting him cheap

There's not a conspiracy on every corner. What Twomey tweets has no bearing on where clubs rate him. He's just reporting that Jiath has in fact risen as a prospect. Hopefully he gets past 40.

 

[Titch3Votes0MooreAA]

It seems Tyler Brockman will not be at Waverley Park in 2024. If so, my vote for our selection has to go to Watson.

 

[Blackhawk42]

It seems Tyler Brockman will not be at Waverley Park in 2024. If so, my vote for our selection has to go to Watson.

It isn't ever that simple, but he's certainly a good chance of coming to us if available at our selection.

I actually think we lack a player like Duursma on our list more so than pure smalls.

I've still got Sam Butler as my breakout player of 2024.

 

[TDS7]

Player Comparison: Forwards


I had a free afternoon, waiting for a plane that I now believe never existed, and figured I'd write some stuff. So, going with the apparent theme of the draft and trade boards, I’d figure it would be good to go over some forwards in this draft. Specifically, I’ll be comparing the three “options” for us in the top 10, whether we get a second top pick or not. But before that…



A Foreword on Forwards

I’m a strong believer in drafting the best player available, especially in the top 10. You don’t get cute with talent, if there is a player who is better than the other options you go with them. Despite that, we might get a very even top 5 for the first time in a while and come end of season there’s every chance we have three players who both meet our need for goal threats and are appropriate for our picks. There’s a definite order to them, but there is a world were we pick up Caddy with our first pick and it's not crazy. That being said, I think all three of these players are best as forwards, and they will be graded as such. I know some are more versatile (in under 18s) than others, but they should be playing as forwards, at least for the first few seasons. Forwards are the (second) hardest position to draft for, a great forward in under 18s might rely on having advantages they just won’t get in the AFL. Others can keep their production up in the AFL, translating seamlessly from juniors to seniors after a season or two developing in the state leagues. Keeping this in mind, I’ll try to highlight why I think these players will be AFL level forwards, what their points of difference are, what their “weapons” are, and where I might be wrong.



All heights/weights from central.rookieme.com/afl/



Nate Caddy

192cm 91kg | U18s Position: Key Forward and Midfielder | AFL Best Position: Third Tall



Strengths:

Forward Craft

Leading

Marking

Repeat Efforts

Offensive Production

Ground Ball Work



Improvements:

Work Rate Up the Ground

Disposal

Defensive Pressure

Decision Making



Why Draft Caddy?

Caddy’s biggest strength is his innate mismatch he provides as a third tall. He’s got great forward-craft fundamentals, getting into the right position to give him the advantage in one-on-one’s and having great leap, long arms, and a keen eye making him a nightmare when he gets in position. Think Gunston, Membrey, Ash Johnson. What he does better than some similar players is his follow up after the ball hits the deck. He has great hands below his knees and can get the ball from his hands to his boot smoothly and with purpose. If you’re drafting Caddy, you’re hoping he can be a part time CHF up the ground, but more an anchor deep playing off the taller players that draw gravity to one side, giving him enough space to get one-on-ones with players either not big enough to out mark him or not agile enough to cover him on the ground.



Why Not?

To put it simply, I don’t think he’s going to be a centerpiece forward. To succeed at 192cm as a forward target you need to have a strong point of difference. Curnow is a freak athlete, both in strength and speed. Roughie was one of the fittest key forwards ever, and his hands were magnets for the footy. Caddy quite simply doesn’t stand out against the AFLs key forwards enough to play as the forward target. While his tertiary forward role has shown some promise, he still relies on having the footy kicked to him to get his opportunities a bit too much. When he does crumb packs, he’s really good, but he doesn’t seem to get into position to crumb enough. He’s a very good forward, and will likely have a good career, but at this high in the draft you want to see players who can win games off their own backs. His time as a midfielder might bode well for a stint at Centre Half—Forward, but he’ll have to develop his fitness and workrate to impact games running off the 50 and finding the footy himself instead of waiting for the footy to find him.



Zane Duursma

189cm 79kg | U18s Position: General Forward/Midfielder | AFL Best Position: General Forward



Strengths:

Marking

Dynamism

Athleticism

Cleanliness

Offensive Production

Follow Up Work

Goal Sense

Defensive Pressure



Improvements:

Midfield Production

Accumulation

Long Kicking

Stamina



Why Draft Duursma?

You draft Duursma if you want a player who will find a way to get goals. As a general forward, he works great in pretty much every forward 50 scenario, whether it be a pack in the hot spot, on a counterattack, or leading perpendicular to the main threat and getting out the back for a one-on-one. A truly three-level player, he presents as a special aerial talent who is a goal threat in every pack. He’s a player who doesn’t need the ball to be kicked perfectly to him to make it dangerous, and is proactive in finding the footy and turning any touch inside 50 into a (generally) good shot. He gets his hands to the footy in packs, keeping the ball in play and in his control. He has a good balance of being the target up forward and the catalyst for goals, finding his own footy when he needs too but playing back and letting his team get him the ball when that's what the team needs. While his stoppage work can be very impressive at times, his fitness base isn’t there to support whole games as a mid. He brings great defensive pressure around the footy, often not being rewarded for his efforts in pressuring the disposal. In my eyes, Duursma is the best archetypal general forward in this draft.



Why Not?

Duursma has two major areas of improvement that will hold him back. The first, and most prominent, is his aerobic capacity. It was clear early in the year that, while his stoppage craft and football nous were up to the task, Duursma was not able to keep up with the midfield for whole games. Contested footy wears heavily on Duursma, it’s one thing to take a big hit and another to be constantly ground down by stoppage after stoppage. Duursma seems to give 100% when going for the footy, and that can tire you out a ton while getting used to the pace of AFL football. The second issue he’ll have to contend with is his kicking, especially from a distance. While Duursma is very neat with his short kicks, and likes to bite off some difficult ones that he can pull off pretty well, after he steps out to +40m his form starts to waver. He starts to hook his kick, pulling his leg across his body and getting under the ball a bit. It seems like this kicking motion only comes out in when Duursma gets some space and time, often on set shots or when kicking long inside 50. I think it’s fixable, and was mostly observed after he’s had a stint in the midfield and naturally a bit tired, but it’s a blemish he’ll want to work on at AFL level.



Nick Watson

170cm 67kg | U18s Position: Small Utility/Midfielder | AFL Best Position: Small Forward



Strengths:

Athleticism

Clean Hands

Goal Sense

Dynamism

Accumulation

Versatility for His Size



Improvements:

Midfield Craft

Disposal Under Pressure

AFL Role



Why Draft Watson?

Watson is a special player, no one can doubt that. His ability to make things happen is undeniable, and his athletic base let him influence games up and down the ground. He’s lightning fast, strong in a pack, and a brilliant footy brain with the skills to put all that to good use. Consistent production, both in goals and disposals, underpin a player who can pull insanity out his back pocket for a goal. There aren’t many players who can do anything with the ball in hand, and even less that can add that onto 20 disposals on good efficiency. He finds his footy and kicks his own goals, and that creativity is something you cannot teach.



Why Not?

Uncertainty will shroud Watson’s ascension to the AFL until he starts playing. He plays a dynamic game, but it’s against u18s. How does he go against a Hardwick or Maynard that won’t let him get away with sealing off the drop zone for an easy mark? Will he be able to get up in marking contests when every third player is 25cm taller than him? How will he hold up to the pace of AFL? Can he be any more than just a small forward? We just won’t know until he gets a few seasons under his belt, but there are things you need to consider when selecting a player who might not be able to translate their talent and form to the AFL. For what it’s worth, I think he’ll go fine as a small forward, but I wouldn’t throw him into the midfield or defense. He coughs the ball up under pressure a bit too much, and his disposal through contact can be haphazard. He isn’t Caleb Daniel

35

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

, his kicking is loftier and he gets under it when pushed out past 35 meters. When compared to Jake Rogers, another 170cm player in the top 10, you can see how his midfield work is a step behind AFL level. The footy bubbles out of his hands when he gets tackled, and he goes to ground both when tackling and when when getting tackled. He recovers from this really well, but midfielders need to stand through contact especially with ball in hand. Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

does this really well, and its why he’s so good up the ground and in packs. He’ll be painted into the small forward corner, but there’s every chance he’s just worth it. Kozi Pickett is a similar height and playstyle, where I think Watson is a much bigger threat aerially and up the ground but not as sharp around goals. He’s got some good tricks, but his finishing on straightforward shots has been shaky. At AFL level, where his opportunities will be more limited, he’ll want to make sure he converts the easy ones when he gets them. I’d be happy to pick him at 3 given our small forward stocks, but I’d be wary of assuming he’s a safe bet or that he can simply play anywhere.



Comparison

The three forwards we have on the table are all great prospects, but there has to be a pecking order. When we were worried about our talls and our forward structure, Caddy was a real option. Now that we’ve had good signs from some talls, and he’s proven to be more of a third tall, I think Caddy’s limitations in finding his own ball and his own scores drops him below Duursma and Watson.

There’s a distinct difference between what Duursma and Watson provide and splitting them will come down to what the coaching group prefers. If the team want a bit higher upside, a threat they can target up forward, and a player who might grow into a great clearance-winning midfielder when we need them to be, then Duursma is hard to ignore. His presence in the air is a major threat and will set him up for some big goal tallies if he can work well with the system we’re building down there. If the team wants a player who will be a consistent presence throughout the game, dragging his opponent up the ground and killing them on rebound, and popping up for some insane goals and brilliant forward craft, then Watson will be there preference. Either way, I think the club is set up to grab a great forward with whoever makes it to their pick, and if given the choice I imagine it’ll be as close to a coin flip as you get in an AFL draft.



Quick Note on Others

Curtin and McKercher are also around our pick and will weigh on the team’s minds if available. I think either will be a great pick, McKercher especially shines as a true game winner, but if the team want forwards, I don’t think they stand above Duursma or Watson. I still think McKercher is the 2nd best player in this draft and honestly, I’d prefer him to Duursma and Watson but I’d understand if the list management saw the top end as effectively equal and thus preference forwards. These four, with Reid, round out a very even top 5 (open draft) that leave us in a great position to nab a quality player. If we do get a later pick, ideally Gold Coasts or GWS’s Tigers pick, Caddy is creeping up to sit just outside that top 5. COS, Wilson, and Murphy have all had good seasons, but you cannot deny Caddy’s production and consistency as a goalkicker.

 

[kenneje]

My picks Watson.

Every time Cyril or Buddy picked up the ball in a BIG game, final quarter, the whole crowd would stand up in anticipation of the magic about to occur.

The Wizard gives off the same energy.

 

[daniel23]

Watson was asked the 5 clubs he'd like to get drafted to and mentioned us first , I just think North are a certainty to pair him with Reid unfortunately.

 

[CHUBBSS]

Imagine pairing Watson with bruest for the first two years of his development…

 

[westhawk]

Watson was asked the 5 clubs he'd like to get drafted to and mentioned us first , I just think North are a certainty to pair him with Reid unfortunately.

If North end up with 1 and 2, they will obviously take Reid and would be mad to not take Curtain, they need a key back and he is the best in the draft.

 

[The Chad and I]

Shallow draft makes it a good year to burn some picks on a McCabe bid.
I'm not enthused by the players outside the top 8-9.

 

[Glebehawk]

Colby was delivering another banger of a game, but ended up having a bit of a torrid time with injury. Had his bell rung from an awkward collision midway through the second after which he got up shaking his head and spent a period on the bench. Was noticeably quieter after that incident. Finally had his afternoon ended by a nasty looking ankle injury early in the third which required him to be carried from the field.

Love. Want. There’s some Hodge in him.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Duursma's main weakness seems to be accumulation and his ability to play effectively as a midfielder.

This may be a fair criticism of his current game, but that doesn't really matter for us. It's also not as if it isn't something that can be worked on in an AFL environment.

We already have an excellent midfield base, but we need some powerful or classy forwards to finish off their good work.

Based on TDS's list his strengths are:

• Marking
• Dynamism
• Athleticism
• Cleanliness
• Offensive Production
• Follow Up Work
• Goal Sense
• Defensive Pressure

At 189/190cm that is a perfect list of strengths that you'd want to see in a HFF.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

If North end up with 1 and 2, they will obviously take Reid and would be mad to not take Curtain, they need a key back and he is the best in the draft.

I hope for the Eagle's sake they don't.

 

[Hawk the Talk]

Duursma and Watson will be available at our pick. North and Eagles will snap up Reid, Curtin and McKercher in the first 3 picks.

 

[The Chad and I]

Duursma's main weakness seems to be accumulation and his ability to play effectively as a midfielder.

This may be a fair criticism of his current game, but that doesn't really matter for us. It's also not as if it isn't something that can be worked on in an AFL environment.

We already have an excellent midfield base, but we need some powerful or classy forwards to finish off their good work.

Based on TDS's list his strengths are:

• Marking
• Dynamism
• Athleticism
• Cleanliness
• Offensive Production
• Follow Up Work
• Goal Sense
• Defensive Pressure

At 189/190cm that is a perfect list of strengths that you'd want to see in a HFF.

Yeah, I am not concerned that the best forward in the draft doesn't accumulate possessions like a midfielder.
Breust, Gunston and Cyril weren't accumulators either.

 

[Brishawk]

Yeah, I am not concerned that the best forward in the draft doesn't accumulate possessions like a midfielder.
Breust, Gunston and Cyril weren't accumulators either.

Seems to get plenty of it as a froward (compared to most forwards) which is what you want!

 

[robiecampbellbrown]

Love. Want. There’s some Hodge in him.

Seems to get plenty of it as a froward (compared to most forwards) which is what you want!

Is a froward a Bulldogs player who plays forward of centre?

 

[HomerJayS]

The long wait until draft day is going to kill me.

Any of the 2023 ‘wish listers’ Hawks fans?

 

[Davo-27]

At our first pick there really isn't a good enough KPF option which is what we need, we basically have a few options imo, they depend on who goes to North and WCE, but it's looking likely that we make a decision between 1 of 4 players, you have a KPD/Mid in Daniel Curtin, unfortunately kicks at goal like a defender and going forward was a failed experiment, but he has been very good playing midfield for most of the year and has runs on the board as a KPD already, McKercher is very similar to Merrett, inside work and outside run, kicks goal on the run from range, accumulates over 30 poss regularly, then you have the over achieving small forward in Nick Watson, very quick, good goal sense, great mark for how small he is and as tough as a cats head, he has flirted with hbf and has his moments, but I like him as a forward more, Zane Duursma moves really well on the ground it's like watching poetry in motion, good mark, accurate kick at goal generally, ordinary midfielder but can fill a void in rotation, similar to Fritsch from Melb imo.

Then it's looking likely we get Will McCabe late 1st round or from around 15 onwards, courageous and quick would be 2 words to describe Will

If we can snag a quality KPF late I won't complain.

 

[burner1]

There’s a few knockson Duursma play as a mid - but does that include his ability to play wing/outside? Would seem to have all the tools to play outside up the ground or even across hbf. But seems his strength is up forward - and elite forwards are hard to find.