Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Everyone needs to do themselves a favour and read through Caleb Daniel's draft write ups, as he is the only fair comparison to Watson in the past 10 years.

2014 Draft Profile: Caleb Daniel

Caleb Daniel (South Adelaide) Height: 168 cm Weight: 68 kg Position: Midfielder/forward Strengths: Pace, agility, endurance, core strength, disposal, inside ability Areas of improvement: Nothing within his control Player comparison: Dayne Zorko (more skilled version) Caleb Daniel is a special...

central.rookieme.com

Draft Profile - Caleb Daniel

Caleb Daniel Height: 167cm Weight: 66kg From: South Adelaide, South Australia Position: Midfielder, Forward After his last two matches at the U18 Championships, the name on everyone's lips is Caleb Daniel so I figure it's about time I did his profile. For anyone who follows the South Australian...

www.bigfooty.com

All the tools to be a star, elite skills, elite endurance, above average speed - he dominated inside and impacted forward, and showed more versatility than Watson has so far. His U18 year he dragged SA across the line in their final 2 matches, one against a Petracca led Vic Metro's side where he had 21 disposals @ 86% efficiency, a monster 217 rating points. Kicked 3 goals from the midfield, dobbed a monster one from outside 50.

He slid to the third round, which was very clearly much too late for him to be picked up, but it also was vindicated in a way because despite all the talent in the world height has clearly been a massive limitation for him. If he were 20cm taller he'd be one of the best players in the AFL, but he's not and he has been pigeon holed as a half back for his entire career.

It is a genuine concern that similar will happen to Watson, which is a particular risk given we wouldn't be getting him for a bargain like the Dogs did with Daniel.

They're both short.

But completely different skill sets.

And considering Daniel's career achievements it's ridiculous that he slid so far.

Considering how highly rated Watson is, the comparison is basically like saying he's the number 1 talent but will 'slide' to 4-6 due to his height.

Would be the most exciting player we've had since Cyril. Fills a need. Absolute no brainer that we select him in my opinion.

 

[KermitJagger]

They’re not close to being the same player other than height.

No it’s not! The only comparison is height!


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I watched a lot of the draft year footy in 2014, they're far more similar than you think. The only reason they seem so different is because Daniel has been used mostly in defence since he was drafted. Interestingly enough Daniel played a lot more of a mid/fwd role when he was younger and had a very similar ground level skillset, though not nearly as good overhead. Watson has also played off half back at stages in the U18 comps this year and looked remarkably similar to Daniel when he did.

They're both natural footballers, they both could be argued to be the most skilled players in their respective drafts and they're both the same height. Height being the most important point of comparison anyway because I'm arguing that height is going to be what limits him, as it has with Daniel.

 

[FB19]

 

[Rowie6]

A showcase of The Wizard at his best over the course of the 2023 season.

It does not get much better that that !
There is my boy!
After watching those highlights!
The chosen one !
He has it all in my opinion!
Wow Weeee!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Big Hotdog]

Has anyone established the most important 2 things about whether we draft him though?
1. Who does he support?
2. Precisely, how big are his hands?

1. Collingwood
2. Has chubby hands

 

[KermitJagger]

They're both short.

But completely different skill sets.

And considering Daniel's career achievements it's ridiculous that he slid so far.

Considering how highly rated Watson is, the comparison is basically like saying he's the number 1 talent but will 'slide' to 4-6 due to his height.

Would be the most exciting player we've had since Cyril. Fills a need. Absolute no brainer that we select him in my opinion.

See my post above, they really don't have completely different skillsets they're just played in different positions. The only thing Watson has that Daniel doesn't have is an elite leap and a propensity to draw high frees, and that doesn't make him a completely different player.

Speed? Watson's probably marginally quicker but Daniel was still sub 3s in his sprint tests.
Endurance? Daniel's equal 2nd all time in the beep test before it was ditched.
Forward nous? Daniel averaged a shade over 2 goals in the U18 national comp games he played, while under an injury cloud.
Skills and ball use? Daniel went at 90% playing mostly as an inside mid in his U18 games.

They've both played forward, midfield and defence at stages in their respective U18 years.

Now, none of this is saying Daniel is a bad player or that Watson will be a bad player, but that neither will be anywhere near as good as they could have been with even 10cm more height. It is a limitation on how good they could be, how much they'd improve in an AFL system. Have a look at Caleb Daniel's player rating over the years:



Reached a decent level quickly (Between 10 and 12 will generally have you somewhere in the bottom half of the top 100, or top 25% of overall players) but has remained roughly there for 8 years.

It's still relatively early, but the same is true for Pickett who is also a similar height.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Geelongs midfield is dire so next years mid heavy draft having 2 top end picks is exactly what they need.

Took the words out of my mouth. Geelong’s attempt to restock their midfield last year is nowhere near enough to make them competitive again. If it’s a mid-heavy draft next year they’ll likely see our future 1st as a guarantee of a top 10 pick.

 

[Rowie6]

I watched a lot of the draft year footy in 2014, they're far more similar than you think. The only reason they seem so different is because Daniel has been used mostly in defence since he was drafted. Interestingly enough Daniel played a lot more of a mid/fwd role when he was younger and had a very similar ground level skillset, though not nearly as good overhead. Watson has also played off half back at stages in the U18 comps this year and looked remarkably similar to Daniel when he did.

They're both natural footballers, they both could be argued to be the most skilled players in their respective drafts and they're both the same height. Height being the most important point of comparison anyway because I'm arguing that height is going to be what limits him, as it has with Daniel.

To me The Wizard has far better foot skills and does not kick if 15 metres side ways all time !
Looks quicker and more agile!
Also by far better in the air and has great decision making and awareness?
But I have only seen his highlights and you have seen a lot more of him probably?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Has anyone established the most important 2 things about whether we draft him though?
1. Who does he support?
2. Precisely, how big are his hands?

3. Does he have a famous cousin?
4. Basketball background??

 

[Yardie]

3. Does he have a famous cousin?
4. Basketball background??

5. Or did he play rugby as a youngster?

 

[Blackhawk42]

See my post above, they really don't have completely different skillsets they're just played in different positions. The only thing Watson has that Daniel doesn't have is an elite leap and a propensity to draw high frees, and that doesn't make him a completely different player.

Speed? Watson's probably marginally quicker but Daniel was still sub 3s in his sprint tests.
Endurance? Daniel's equal 2nd all time in the beep test before it was ditched.
Forward nous? Daniel averaged a shade over 2 goals in the U18 national comp games he played, while under an injury cloud.
Skills and ball use? Daniel went at 90% playing mostly as an inside mid in his U18 games.

They've both played forward, midfield and defence at stages in their respective U18 years.

Now, none of this is saying Daniel is a bad player or that Watson will be a bad player, but that neither will be anywhere near as good as they could have been with even 10cm more height. It is a limitation on how good they could be, how much they'd improve in an AFL system. Have a look at Caleb Daniel's player rating over the years:

View attachment 1852810

Reached a decent level quickly (Between 10 and 12 will generally have you somewhere in the bottom half of the top 100, or top 25% of overall players) but has remained roughly there for 8 years.

It's still relatively early, but the same is true for Pickett who is also a similar height.

View attachment 1852811

Watson's elite traits are exactly the elite traits we require in our weakest area of the ground.

As good as Curtin looks, we're stacked for tall midfielders which is absolutely where he will end up playing.

If we're separating the two on anything I'm choosing needs based as opposed to height.

 

[FB19]

I have decided that TylerDurden and his love for the Wiz after watching his highlights is now what I need to support despite my head saying duursma or trade back. Watching him was like watching a son that simply needs to come home.

 

[KermitJagger]

Watson's elite traits are exactly the elite traits we require in our weakest area of the ground.

As good as Curtin looks, we're stacked for tall midfielders which is absolutely where he will end up playing.

If we're separating the two on anything I'm choosing needs based as opposed to height.

He'll end up playing where we see him playing.

As I just finished saying about Caleb Daniel, he was a mid/forward and I'm sure he saw himself as such coming in to the league. He is not a mid/forward in the AFL. Harris Andrews isn't a ruckman, Aaron Naughton isn't a defender, Darcy Moore isn't a forward.

Even if he does play some midfield, it's not exactly a negative to have a Matthew Pavlich style player who can be forward, mid or back to a high level. To my mind it's an advantage that we won't have with a player like Watson who is position 1 or bust (not literally a bust, before anyone gets upset, it's just a saying).

 

[TylerDurden]

Sam wants elite traits above anything. And our inability to score, and have any elite talent in our fwd like (Breust and Lewis aside) has been our kryptonite.

Time is now to load up.

 

[TylerDurden]

I have decided that TylerDurden and his love for the Wiz after watching his highlights is now what I need to support despite my head saying duursma or trade back. Watching him was like watching a son that simply needs to come home.

Bring him home.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I watched a lot of the draft year footy in 2014, they're far more similar than you think. The only reason they seem so different is because Daniel has been used mostly in defence since he was drafted. Interestingly enough Daniel played a lot more of a mid/fwd role when he was younger and had a very similar ground level skillset, though not nearly as good overhead. Watson has also played off half back at stages in the U18 comps this year and looked remarkably similar to Daniel when he did.

They're both natural footballers, they both could be argued to be the most skilled players in their respective drafts and they're both the same height. Height being the most important point of comparison anyway because I'm arguing that height is going to be what limits him, as it has with Daniel.

Yeah nah, they’re different players to my eye and it seems many feel the same, which is why he’s been predicted all year to be going top 5.

 

[Cyril says]

Are we really going to miss out on Tew Jiath? I thought the whole point of the NGA was to attract these sort of players.

 

[KermitJagger]

Yeah nah, they’re different players to my eye and it seems many feel the same, which is why he’s been predicted all year to be going top 5.

If it were 2014 and Watson was Watson back then, do you think he'd be top 5? Or is it maybe that players like Kosi and Daniel have softened the market for shorter players?

Drafts tend to follow trends, teams once placed a premium on talls but are now more hesitant because 2012 - 2015 yielded Patton, Boyd, Schache and McCartin as top 2 picks. Meanwhile shorter players like Lachie Neale and Touk Miller have won Brownlows, AFLCA MVPs and AFLPA MVPs.

I see Watson as a great player, but I also see a top 5 pick as an over-correction.

 

[FuzwaldQO]

Maybe a third or fourth party involved if we use dees 42 plus say 47/49 for suns 27 then on trade that to eagles with 63 for 37 and their f3. Eagles want another top 25 pick but their 37/58 this year isn’t getting them that.
Hawks
6,11,37,44 in 2023 (37,44 match McCabe at 16)
F1,f2(pies),f3(eagles) in 2024

Would be easier to give Suns 49 and 62 (410 points), they give us (Dons) F3 and 71. 71 (29) will come in and be worth more by the time we need it to match for Dear. Then we could do the deal with the Demons and get 42 (395 points), that and 71 will be worth more than what we lost anyway. If they wanted more we could even make it 49, 62, 63 for F3 and 66. We would lose a few more point but nothing we can't manage. Still have plenty for Dear

Edit:
We get the F3 we want, and the ability to trade our F1.
Actually no, I'll put it in another post.

 

[TazHawk15]

I would be wrapped if we get Curtin but I have been big on the Wiz from the get go, Bruest is in the twilight of his career and Chad is an unknown.
A few have said we don’t need the Wiz because we got Ginny but IMO the wiz has lots more tricks in his kit bag, I expect his name to be called out by us on Monday.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Are we really going to miss out on Tew Jiath? I thought the whole point of the NGA was to attract these sort of players.

NGAs are the AFLs way of throwing a fairly useless bone to the other 14 clubs who aren't gifted volumes of players via elite talent academies so they'd shut up for a while. Hopefully after this draft is heavily conflicted by academy bids other clubs start to get angsty about it again.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

Page 200 - how appropriate. This will be my last post for a while since I'm going on some leave. I'll leave you with the following information.
1. Our offer to Eagles is still there and hasn't officially been rejected (though not many doubt it will be).
2. We believe (good signs so far) we'll be able to do a pick swap on the night with another team which if it is accepted will mean we'll be going for one of Caddy, O'Sullivan, Leake or Wilson.

That's all. To those that have believed me I had done most of the trades paperwork and it's now up to other staff to do the drafts paperwork whilst I take a (hard earned) sabbatical. To those that haven't believed me, my mum has kicked me out of her basement made me put some clothes on and confiscated my computer

It's been fun. See you in a few weeks.

I have zero idea if you are legit! How ever you have been believable and entertaining, so thank you.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

I am at the point where I am a fan of the Top 6-7 and will be wrapped with whom ever the club chooses! Just make it happen now will you, come at us Monday

 

[naysayer]

See my post above, they really don't have completely different skillsets they're just played in different positions. The only thing Watson has that Daniel doesn't have is an elite leap and a propensity to draw high frees, and that doesn't make him a completely different player.

Speed? Watson's probably marginally quicker but Daniel was still sub 3s in his sprint tests.
Endurance? Daniel's equal 2nd all time in the beep test before it was ditched.
Forward nous? Daniel averaged a shade over 2 goals in the U18 national comp games he played, while under an injury cloud.
Skills and ball use? Daniel went at 90% playing mostly as an inside mid in his U18 games.

They've both played forward, midfield and defence at stages in their respective U18 years.

Now, none of this is saying Daniel is a bad player or that Watson will be a bad player, but that neither will be anywhere near as good as they could have been with even 10cm more height. It is a limitation on how good they could be, how much they'd improve in an AFL system. Have a look at Caleb Daniel's player rating over the years:

View attachment 1852810

Reached a decent level quickly (Between 10 and 12 will generally have you somewhere in the bottom half of the top 100, or top 25% of overall players) but has remained roughly there for 8 years.

It's still relatively early, but the same is true for Pickett who is also a similar height.

View attachment 1852811

So both Daniel and Pickett played significant roles in winning premierships in only their second year, and have maintained a high standard ever since?

Forgive me for suggesting this is not your strongest argument against picking Nick Watson.


Ps. Your suggestion that goal nous is comparable is beyond silliness. I don't think Daniel has kicked as many goals over the entire span of his career (junior and senior) as Watson kicked just this year.

 

[TazHawk15]

Are we really going to miss out on Tew Jiath? I thought the whole point of the NGA was to attract these sort of players.

That is purely designed to appease so the AFL say “Look over here” while the rort given to certain clubs like the GCS and the Swans is supposed to go unnoticed.
More than likely Tew will be bid on before pick 40, so we miss out on the opportunity to grab him.