Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

Who do you want for our first pick at the AFL Draft?

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weltschmerz said:
I don't think there's a bigger flight risk in the draft than Collard, nor can I imagine us landing another first rounder after Croft to pick him up.
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Curtin? Rich inner city WA kids can be flight risks. There are reports we haven't even interviewed Curtin.

Looks like we're getting either Watson or Sanders first then looking at needs later in the draft.
 
adogsfan5 said:
Is it wrong to say there’s a genuine mix of Tom Papley and Caleb Daniel?
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Pretty close. Watson's field kicking was a standout at the champs.
 
geoffjennings79 said:
Literally confirmed in the last week that Arty Jones played the latter part of the year with a shoulder injury (why he was still selected is a separate discussion), yet he's apparently not up to AFL standard largely based on senior games he played under injury duress? 🤔
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No he wasn’t up to standard because his performances were well below the level required to be a benefit to the team.

The fact that he was injured may make the reason for some of his poor performances more understandable on a personal level, but actually makes it worse from a club perspective. The guy was struggling even when he was fit, why keep playing him hurt?
 

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Proffessor said:
No he wasn’t up to standard because his performances were well below the level required to be a benefit to the team.

The fact that he was injured may make the reason for some of his poor performances more understandable on a personal level, but actually makes it worse from a club perspective. The guy was struggling even when he was fit, why keep playing him hurt?
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You look for moments and key traits in youngsters, especially slight ones who were always going to take time.

In terms of moments, that last quarter against carlton where he was involved in our last 4 goals including kicking the sealer says to me he can make it.

Traits that suggest he can include his endurance and willingness to get to the front of contests.

Definitely has a way to go but ive seen enough to suggest there is an AFL player there. Must improve size as he can often slip tackles that he should stick. Watson coming in would be good for him I think.
 
HAWKS PONDER CURTIN CALL

Exciting small forward Nick Watson and top WA prospect Dan Curtin remain the two main contenders to be taken by Hawthorn with its first pick, with the Hawks flying Curtin over to Melbourne for an interview this week.

The Hawks hold Pick 4 in this year’s draft, with the selection tipped to slide one spot after a bid on Gold Coast academy star Jed Walter.

West Coast is widely expected to take 185cm Bendigo Pioneers sensation Harley Reid with the first pick, while North Melbourne has been strongly linked to Tassie midfielder Colby McKercher and Gippsland Power medium forward Zane Duursma with its two top-five picks – although the Roos will also consider Curtin.

Should Curtin slip past North, it means the Hawks will likely weigh up taking Curtin or Watson.



Daniel Curtin of Western Australia. Picture: Paul Kane/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
Daniel Curtin of Western Australia. Picture: Paul Kane/AFL Photos/via Getty ImagesSource: Getty Images


While Curtin was flown over from WA to meet with the Hawks on Monday, rival clubs spoken to foxfooty.com.au expect 170cm Eastern Ranges product Watson to be picked by Hawthorn. And should Hawthorn opt for Watson, the Bulldogs would almost certainly overlook Curtin after taking several key-position prospects with early picks in recent drafts.

End of article


I Will be gutted if Hawks take Watson. Nothing against Sanders as he seems an elite progressional who is almost zero chance of bust (other than being the first potential captain of the tassie team).

We don't need Watson to go through the mid, we need him to be at the feet of our elite big men with Cody and give the opposition plenty to think about in our forward 50. Could be best forward line in AFL for many years. 40+ goal a year small forward…where do I sign?

He is more dynamic than Cody, in the kozi and bobby hill mould.

Cody more of a Jamie Elliott, Stephen Milne.

Definitely room for both!
 
Bonti 5416 said:
You look for moments and key traits in youngsters, especially slight ones who were always going to take time.

In terms of moments, that last quarter against carlton where he was involved in our last 4 goals including kicking the sealer says to me he can make it.

Traits that suggest he can include his endurance and willingness to get to the front of contests.

Definitely has a way to go but ive seen enough to suggest there is an AFL player there. Must improve size as he can often slip tackles that he should stick. Watson coming in would be good for him I think.
Click to expand...

One good quarter out of 13 games isn't exactly a great record though and is equivalent of someone putting in one good week for a whole year. A record that would see you getting the sack in most jobs. Durability and strength are clearly major obstacles for him to overcome.
 
Bonti 5416 said:

Anyone have access to this article on the age website?​

​

Why chaos could reign at this year’s AFL draft​

By Marc McGowan​

November 15, 2023 — 5.30am
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West Coast are poised to keep the top pick for Monday night's AFL draft. That's the common view, although the Eagles still have the option to trade it before the first selection is made.

But another pick could become a hot-ticket item and throw the top of the draft into chaos - West Coast's 2024 first-rounder.

In a draft already set to be the wildest in years, it's a look ahead to the talent available in 2024 that could make this year's draft even more interesting.

Not since the 2020 edition, when North Melbourne surprised everyone by taking Will Phillips at No.3, busting all top-10 predictions, have there been so many possibilities from early in the draft.

Why would eagles trade their future first-round pick?

North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Melbourne all had a red-hot go at trying to prise the No.1 choice off West Coast.

The deadline for the Eagles to accept a pre-draft offer for the top pick in 2023 passed last Friday. But they can still trade it on Monday night, when the first round will take place, although most clubs expect them to keep it and select gun Victorian Harley Reid.

However, opposition recruiters believe the Eagles' 2024 first-rounder - which will be an early choice again if they struggle next season - is up for grabs, with no Western Australians among next year's top-liners at this stage. Any potential trade would be with this year's top WA prospect, Daniel Curtin, in mind. For months, the talk was the Eagles would have to choose between Reid or Curtin, but this scenario would enable them to snare both.

Victorian midfielders Finn O'Sullivan, Josh Smillie, Levi Ashcroft - the Brisbane-bound brother of Will, and son of Marcus - and Jagga Smith are potential top-five selections next year, while South Australia's Sid Draper was an under-18 All-Australian this year as a "bottom-ager".

Those names won't mean much to the average AFL fan right now, but they mean plenty to recruiters already plotting ways to get their hands on the most promising underage talent.

There are paper-thin margins between this year's top prospects, at least behind Reid and Gold Coast academy hotshot Jed Walter (a hulking key forward), before the 2023 draft class evens out as early as the teens, where club preference will determine how the order plays out.

And team plans could be altered further if North Melbourne repeat history and do a "2020". They have picks two and three, are potential bidders on Walter, and could change the course of the draft if they go in a direction other than two of Colby McKercher, Zane Duursma and Nick Watson.

To swap or not?

Live trading during the draft, which was introduced in 2018, means list and recruiting managers will frantically work the phones as certain players slide, weighing up the risk and reward of trading up or down.

Hawthorn traded pick 27 and future second and third-round selections mid-draft last year for Sydney's No.18, which they used on Josh Weddle, who played 17 games in an impressive debut season. The success of that move might prompt clubs to be similarly bold on Monday and Tuesday.

But they don't always work out. Carlton infamously traded their 2019 first-round selection to Adelaide for the Crows' No.19 in 2018, which they used on Liam Stocker, whom then-list boss Stephen Silvagni rated very highly. The Blues were not only betting on Stocker's talent but themselves being better the next season.

Unfortunately for Carlton, they finished 16th in 2019, and eventually delisted Stocker after 28 games across four years.

Stocker, now 23, has since reunited with Silvagni at St Kilda.

It's academic

Then there's the academy element. The Swans, Giants, Suns and Lions can match any opposition bid on one of their northern academy players, who train in those respective clubs' programs from a young age in the hope of graduating to the AFL list.

The 14 non-northern clubs have Next Generation Academies - for players with an Indigenous or multicultural background who are from an AFL-nominated zone allocated to that team.

When a rival club attempts to draft an academy player, the team that footballer is attached to has the right to match the bid based on an AFL formula, whereby a descending points value is attributed to each draft selection.

For example, pick one is worth 3000 points, and pick 12 is 1268 - right down to No.73 being valued at only nine points. Any selection from 74 onwards carries no points.

Clubs wishing to match an academy bid must do so with a collection of picks that equals the selection, in points value, that bid came at. The complication is that clubs receive a 20 per cent points discount on academy players who receive a first-round bid, and a fixed 197 points (about what pick 56 is worth) off any player after that.

Part of the rule is the matching club needs to use its picks directly after when the bid was made, which is why Sydney's 2018 trades with West Coast were genius. The Swans' arrangement with the Eagles that enabled them to secure then-academy prospect Nick Blakey at a bargain rate was a much-talked-about live trade.

Sydney knew they would match a bid on Blakey somewhere in the first round, so they teed up two trades with the Eagles pre-draft.

First, the Swans traded their second-rounder in 2018 before the Giants bid on Blakey at No.10, which meant they were able to collate later selections to match the bid. After the bid was matched, they completed a second deal with West Coast that handed that original second-round selection right back to them.

There will be a strong academy flavour again in next week's draft, just as there was in that aforementioned 2020 edition, when academy prospects Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (No.1), Braeden Campbell (5), Lachie Jones (16), Reef McInnes (23) and Blake Coleman (24) received first-round bids - all of which were matched.

No more loophole

After Sydney's 2018 move, the AFL swiftly shut that loophole, preventing clubs from following the Swans' example. It is the same bidding process for father-son prospects.

And though clubs used to be able to match any bid on a Next Generation Academy player, just like the northern academies, the AFL changed the rule. Clubs can still match bids, but only from pick 40 onwards.

Back to this year's draft. Gold Coast will match four opposition bids on academy prospects next week, with at least three of them set to come in the first round. Father-son duo Jordan Croft (tied to Western Bulldogs) and Will McCabe (Hawthorn) are also likely first-round draftees.

However, North Melbourne (Ryley Sanders), West Coast (Lance Collard), Hawthorn (Tew Jiath, brother of Changkuoth), Fremantle (Mitch Edwards) and the Bulldogs (Luamon Lual) are set to miss out on NGA players because of that rule change.

The first domino

There is a popular top 10, which includes, in no particular order: Reid, Walter, McKercher, Duursma, Watson, Sanders, Nate Caddy, Curtin, Ethan Read and Connor O'Sullivan, although bolters Caleb Windsor and James Leake are threatening to break in.

All it would take is for one club to select Windsor or Leake with a top-10 pick, or make an earlier-than-expected bid on someone such as Gold Coast-bound midfielder Jake Rogers, for everything to change.

The Suns accumulated a suite of selections in the trade period in preparation for the worst-case scenario with their academy young guns.

After the top 10 or 12 selections, recruiters will tell you there are fewer genuinely safe picks than usual, and clubs may resort to punting on unproven upside. It's going to be a fascinating draft.
 
Proffessor said:
One good quarter out of 13 games isn't exactly a great record though and is equivalent of someone putting in one good week for a whole year. A record that would see you getting the sack in most jobs. Durability and strength are clearly major obstacles for him to overcome.
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Shocking analogy.
Would you ask an apprentice to do the job of a skilled, fully qualified employer? Because thats a better analogy as thats what asked of a 20 year old skinny kid in an AFL game.

I bet you were a type that hated English for the first 6-7 years, saying he was soft and not good enough.

Some players take time in AFL, thats always been that way and always will be. He probably got more games than he should because of our lack or small forward depth but he strung a good month together. There is foundation to build off and he does have a long way to go but not about to sack him as you have suggested.
 
Hawks will take Watson over Curtin I reckon. They have McCabe coming though as a FS. So I would be slightly surprised if they take two tall defenders.

And they need more scoring power. If they can find more goals, they will easily win a few more games next year as their midfield is already hard to play against.
 
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_Cerberus_ said:
Hawks will take Watson over Curtin I reckon. They have McCabe coming though as a FS. So I would be slightly surprised if they take two tall defenders.

And they need more scoring power. If they can find more goals, they will easily win a few more games next year as their midfield is already hard to play against.
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They also have Casher Dear as a FS prospect, a tall who is better than hits BF rating based on the times I've seen him play.

If I was to bet, I'd say they pick Watson (Duursma if he slips). Then we get Sanders.
 
Mofra said:
They also have Casher Dear as a FS prospect, a tall who is better than hits BF rating based on the times I've seen him play.

If I was to bet, I'd say they pick Watson (Duursma if he slips). Then we get Sanders.
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They are also interviewing O'Sullivan this week apparently, along with Curtin. Pick 4 is a little high for him, and their next pick is at 44. Makes me wonder if they might try move back in with a F1? Or could a team be keen to trade up, swoop in and the Hawks move back a couple of places and still get O'Sullivan?
 
_Cerberus_ said:
They are also interviewing O'Sullivan this week. Pick 4 is a little high for him, and their next pick is at 44. Makes me wonder if they might try move back in with a F1? Or could a team be keen to trade up, swoop in and the Hawks move back a couple of places and get O'Sullivan?
Click to expand...
I have heard Melbourne are keen on Watson and will look to get ahead of us on the night.
 

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Bonti 5416 said:
HAWKS PONDER CURTIN CALL

Exciting small forward Nick Watson and top WA prospect Dan Curtin remain the two main contenders to be taken by Hawthorn with its first pick, with the Hawks flying Curtin over to Melbourne for an interview this week.

The Hawks hold Pick 4 in this year’s draft, with the selection tipped to slide one spot after a bid on Gold Coast academy star Jed Walter.

West Coast is widely expected to take 185cm Bendigo Pioneers sensation Harley Reid with the first pick, while North Melbourne has been strongly linked to Tassie midfielder Colby McKercher and Gippsland Power medium forward Zane Duursma with its two top-five picks – although the Roos will also consider Curtin.

Should Curtin slip past North, it means the Hawks will likely weigh up taking Curtin or Watson.



Daniel Curtin of Western Australia. Picture: Paul Kane/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
Daniel Curtin of Western Australia. Picture: Paul Kane/AFL Photos/via Getty ImagesSource: Getty Images


While Curtin was flown over from WA to meet with the Hawks on Monday, rival clubs spoken to foxfooty.com.au expect 170cm Eastern Ranges product Watson to be picked by Hawthorn. And should Hawthorn opt for Watson, the Bulldogs would almost certainly overlook Curtin after taking several key-position prospects with early picks in recent drafts.

End of article


I Will be gutted if Hawks take Watson. Nothing against Sanders as he seems an elite progressional who is almost zero chance of bust (other than being the first potential captain of the tassie team).

We don't need Watson to go through the mid, we need him to be at the feet of our elite big men with Cody and give the opposition plenty to think about in our forward 50. Could be best forward line in AFL for many years. 40+ goal a year small forward…where do I sign?

He is more dynamic than Cody, in the kozi and bobby hill mould.

Cody more of a Jamie Elliott, Stephen Milne.

Definitely room for both!
Click to expand...

Even if Watson is available I’d be very surprised if we pick him. Would be a huge mistake imo
 
Mofra said:
Curtin? Rich inner city WA kids can be flight risks. There are reports we haven't even interviewed Curtin.

Looks like we're getting either Watson or Sanders first then looking at needs later in the draft.
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Agree and think the only way this possibly changes is if North go Dursma/Curtin which could happen and McKercher comes into play and Hawks pass on him selecting Watson. Leaving us the two Tassie boys to choose from? Can't wait regardless.
 
Bonti 5416 said:
Shocking analogy.
Would you ask an apprentice to do the job of a skilled, fully qualified employer? Because thats a better analogy as thats what asked of a 20 year old skinny kid in an AFL game.

I bet you were a type that hated English for the first 6-7 years, saying he was soft and not good enough.

Some players take time in AFL, thats always been that way and always will be. He probably got more games than he should because of our lack or small forward depth but he strung a good month together. There is foundation to build off and he does have a long way to go but not about to sack him as you have suggested.
Click to expand...
Bad bet.

BTW I haven't suggested sacking him. I suggested that he should have been sent off early for surgery and a strengthening program last year to help him to develop his body to an AFL ready condition, which it clearly wasn't last year.

Last year he averaged 0.3 goals per game as a small forward in a team ideally suited to and desperately crying out for someone to play that role.

If he isn't capable of filling that role, and he definitely wasn't last year, then the club will find someone who can.
He has a brief window of opportunity that will close fast, so he doesn't have a moment to lose.

Many capable players miss their window of opportunity because they and the people around them overestimate how long it will last.
 
Mojorisin said:
I have heard Melbourne are keen on Watson and will look to get ahead of us on the night.
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Melbourne are constantly chasing top tier talent. They are very aggressive. I know we have been somewhat hamstrung in recent years with F/S and NGA, but I wish we were that aggressive. Hopefully this year is a bit of what we can expect going forward. From memory they tried to trade up last year as well.
 
PocketRocket08 said:
He had poor first half of the year after stress fractures and no pre season. Second half of the year was much better. Showed good speed averaged 4 tackles and a goal a game second half of the year and around 14 possessions. Which is above average for a small fwd. I’d like to wait until he has a pre season before I judge. I will not though his vision inside 50 was elite in the second half of the season. Had most scoring assists I did read somewhere. Personally I like what he has shown. No doubt needs a big pre season but he has something I believe. I’m more optimistic on most of our players though. To many haters here and not SUPPORTERS!!
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This is my favourite of all stupid bigfooty tropes. The one where If somebody casts even the mildest of criticisms of a developing player, team or the club they're reduced to being a hater as a means of delegitimising their opinion or status as a supporter of the club.

geoffjennings79 said:
Literally confirmed in the last week that Arty Jones played the latter part of the year with a shoulder injury (why he was still selected is a separate discussion), yet he's apparently not up to AFL standard largely based on senior games he played under injury duress? 🤔
Click to expand...

There's nothing nefarious or negligent about Jones getting surgery in the post-season. Players take to the field all of the time with injuries that aren't severe enough to keep them out of the side and can be attended to in post-season.

I know this because people in here readily pointed me to this as means of explaining Jack Macraes relatively poor season.

The reason I question his status in the team is watching him go through an entire game where he had 68% ToG and collected wait for it...Zero possessions. Flashing in and out of play applying pressure to somebody else with the ball will only take a player so far.
 
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I have been surprised and encouraged by Arty's improvement over the past 12 months, and absolutely love him, but I do still have question marks over him.

The primary one is just whether he can find a way to impact the game enough. You can do that by accumulating, by being a defensive menace, and/or by being damaging with possession, but I'm not entirely convinced any of those skills are elite enough for him to make a mark. Despite his apparent running capacity, putting himself in dangerous positions to win the ball does not seem to be his strength, and he hasn't run at particularly high impact per disposal at AFL or VFL level. The defensive side is potentially where he makes his mark but without adding more to his game that limits his ceiling to being a fringe role player.

Big year ahead for him. Clarke, too - I have similar question marks for him.
 
Dannnnnnnnnn said:
I have been surprised and encouraged by Arty's improvement over the past 12 months, and absolutely love him, but I do still have question marks over him.

The primary one is just whether he can find a way to impact the game enough. You can do that by accumulating, by being a defensive menace, and/or by being damaging with possession, but I'm not entirely convinced any of those skills are elite enough for him to make a mark. Despite his apparent running capacity, putting himself in dangerous positions to win the ball does not seem to be his strength, and he hasn't run at particularly high impact per disposal at AFL or VFL level. The defensive side is potentially where he makes his mark but without adding more to his game that limits his ceiling to being a fringe role player.

Big year ahead for him. Clarke, too - I have similar question marks for him.
Click to expand...
I agree with a lot of that post but not the "make it break" side of it. I'm happy to give both a bit of time to develop
 

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