List Mgmt. 2023 Draft Thread - Part I

[joydivision22]

I think i agree but with a good talent spotter: ( Toce)?
Dunstan 18, Acres 19: >> M Crouch :23 Gardiner:22, McStay :24 , Merrett 26
Goddard 21, McKenzie 22 >> McLean :26 Webb:27 , Miller :29, Maynard 30
Gresham 18: Yep probably the best at that pick.
Long 25: >> Parfitt 26: , Fisher 27, Lipinski 28 , Bolton 29.
Byrnes 52: Useful player.
Not sure who you get instead of Allison, not a typical draft.

Even with a gun head recruiter picking the lights out, all those ‘sleeper’ stars were passed over at least once by every recruiter so its pretty clear it’s mostly pot luck at that range. Is that a fair assessment?

To test the theories, it would be best to look at who went pick 2-5 in those drafts (obvs never going to get pick 1).

2013 J Kelly Billings Bontempelli Kolodjashnij
2014 Petracca Brayshaw J Pickett De Goey
2015 Shache Mills Oliver Parish
2016 Taranto McCluggage Ainsworth Setterfield
2017 Brayshaw Dow LDU Cerra

Just a small sample size (I want to do something else now so I stopped there) but 13/20 you would consider worth the investment. That’s a strong hit rate.

Compare that to maybe 1 or 2 which reach those levels per draft from picks 6-20? Say 2/14 so even if you had three picks in that range, the odds are roughly 2/14, 2/13, 2/12. We’ve consistently followed that trend missing every time as well as missing with our really high picks bar once with King so that obviously doesn’t help.

 

[CaptainRisky]

He's got some X factor and tricks too. I really like his game. I reckon he's got a massive ceiling. Could be a real best player in the draft type.

Really , i must have been watching a different Wilson , yeah he has some skill but is not explosive x factor from what i have seen and i didn't see him play any time as a mid

 

[jh38]

May I introduce you to Hunter Clark. Think he’s lost weight since we drafted him. Need to have some athletic weapons to make it in the AFL

Hunter had the technique, but its no secret he's lazy. Work ethic is one of the biggest attributes required to succeed at the top level.

 

[St Kilda Death]

Anatomy of a flag list:

FRDP
Daicos (4*)
Pendlebury (5)
Degoey (5)
Moore (9*)
Sidebottom (11)
IQ (13)

2nd round
Maynard (30)
3rd round
Murphy (39)
Mcreery (44)
Daicos (57*)

Traded in
Crisp (part of beams trade)
Elliot (25)
WHE (25)
Howe (29)
Hill (39)
Mitchell(41)
Lipinski(43)
Cameron (56)
Frampton (57)

Rookie
Cox
Mihocek
Ginnivan
Markov (DFA)
————————-

3x top 5
3x top 15

1x 2nd drafted
3x 2nd traded for established players

3x 3rd drafted
5x 3rd traded for established players

4x rookie(mature age)

Would anyone argue their 5 best players are top 11 picks?
Doesn’t mean they nailed every pick either.
Literally another dozen FRDP unnacounted for since Pendlebury taken in 2005.

Build around the stars, Father/son rule mighty handy.
But they have largely built on trading for established players with anything past pick 20. Once again not a rule, they have taken 20ish 2nd/3rd/4th picks to the draft over the last decade.
But success has come from the trade ins over what they have found there.

This info helps us in no way, every list is built differently.
I’m bored, can’t wait for the draft/trade szn!

 

[joydivision22]

Anything that we took in the last 15 years should be in a manual for what not to do.

Pick 3 has netted some shockers too. Jarrod Grant, Polec, Buntine, K. Kolodjasnij, Setterfield, Dylan Stephens.

Pick 6 has netted Grainger-Barass, Fischer McAsey, Stephenson, Petrevski-Seton, Aaron Francis, Marchbank and Scharenberg. You can stuff up good picks too and it really depends on the draft.

I'd usually agree with you and be all for getting right up high in the draft but just don't love this one, looks like 2017. I think Harley Reid, Curtain, McKercher, Duursma, Watson types all look good and then it gets a bit less good.

To me the only players in that top lot that suit our needs are Mckercher and Duursma. In that next group Sanders, Murphy and Caddy would be next group that are pretty even. Sanders suits needs. Then throw a blanket over the next lot. There just isn't enough to move up for IMO, you don't get anything free so are paying way overs to get up the draft.

You have to decide if the gamble is worth it and if the two players that we want are gone you could end up paying 2 firsts for a project KPB.

Obviously excluded the GC academy players.

I absolutely agree with you. Which is why I think we’re much better off having a top pick this year than 2-3 mid-end firsts given you’re assessment of the available talent. McKercher the guy for sure

 

[gringo2011]

I absolutely agree with you. Which is why I think we’re much better off having a top pick this year than 2-3 mid-end firsts given you’re assessment of the available talent. McKercher the guy for sure

I think he'll go in the top 4 so you have to trade up to GCs pick and blow the Dogs offer out of the water. Probably Gresham compo, our natural first pick 12 or what ever it is, and a future first plus some kind of sweetener.

I'd honestly rather take our picks and maybe get in line for Hollands from GC. If you grabbed Dow, Henry and Hollands you have three top 10 picks and none would cost too much. Draft a couple of good kids and hope that that gamble pays off more.

 

[joydivision22]

Anatomy of a flag list:

FRDP
Daicos (4*)
Pendlebury (5)
Degoey (5)
Moore (9*)
Sidebottom (11)
IQ (13)

2nd round
Maynard (30)
3rd round
Murphy (39)
Mcreery (44)
Daicos (57*)

Traded in
Crisp (part of beams trade)
Elliot (25)
WHE (25)
Howe (29)
Hill (39)
Mitchell(41)
Lipinski(43)
Cameron (56)
Frampton (57)

Rookie
Cox
Mihocek
Ginnivan
Markov (DFA)
————————-

3x top 5
3x top 15

1x 2nd drafted
3x 2nd traded for established players

3x 3rd drafted
5x 3rd traded for established players

4x rookie(mature age)

Would anyone argue their 5 best players are top 11 picks?
Doesn’t mean they nailed every pick either.
Literally another dozen FRDP unnacounted for since Pendlebury taken in 2005.

Build around the stars, Father/son rule mighty handy.
But they have largely built on trading for established players with anything past pick 20. Once again not a rule, they have taken 20ish 2nd/3rd/4th picks to the draft over the last decade.
But success has come from the trade ins over what they have found there.

This info helps us in no way, every list is built differently.
I’m bored, can’t wait for the draft/trade szn!

Very interesting to see it broken down like that.

As you say not all that helpful as a guide for us given players ask to be traded to coll in their prime rather than to stk when they know they’re cooked. Theres no doubt the addition of pick 4 Daicos the last two years has dramatically shifted their fortunes.

Quaynor an academy pick they were able to match in the first round just to add to the f/s. few of those trade ins were selected very high initially too.

Not sure how we do it because we aren’t able to recruit like collingwood plus we always have to pay full price seemingly and we have been the very worst at drafting. Pretty astonishing that we’re not in a norf like fetal position but that’s probably down to a bit of luck hear and there and great drafting the last two years.

To start I think we need to add a star pure on baller and the easiest way to get one is to find a top 5 pick and take the ~approx~ 65-70% chance.

We haven’t ever done this in recent history, except once with Luke Ball at 2 which we royally ****ed up in the most stk way possible.

there is another thing we haven’t done coincidence?

 

[joydivision22]

I think he'll go in the top 4 so you have to trade up to GCs pick and blow the Dogs offer out of the water. Probably Gresham compo, our natural first pick 12 or what ever it is, and a future first plus some kind of sweetener.

I'd honestly rather take our picks and maybe get in line for Hollands from GC. If you grabbed Dow, Henry and Hollands you have three top 10 picks and none would cost too much. Draft a couple of good kids and hope that that gamble pays off more.

In my initial post I suggested we target Geelong’s pick 7 with Gresham pick (hopefully 13) and our 12 with a F2 coming back. Then move 7 and our F1 for 3. Without GC kids, sounds like it will go Reid to Norf, Curtain to WC and would be McKercher to us. Most predictions have him 3 now no matter who has the pick.

The guys you mention are no longer too 10 picks are they though.. they’re the ones id consider busts at this point. And they are a 100% chance of not being quite the star we need compared to at a minimum a 50% chance of picking up the right kid at the draft.

 

[gringo2011]

In my initial post I suggested we target Geelong’s pick 7 with Gresham pick (hopefully 13) and our 12 with a F2 coming back. Then move 7 and our F1 for 3. Without GC kids, sounds like it will go Reid to Norf, Curtain to WC and would be McKercher to us. Most predictions have him 3 now no matter who has the pick.

The guys you mention are no longer too 10 picks are they though.. they’re the ones id consider busts at this point. And they are a 100% chance of not being quite the star we need compared to at a minimum a 50% chance of picking up the right kid at the draft.

Those deals with heaps of moving parts rarely ever come off. Just dealing with one list manager is hard enough. Plenty of deals take until the last hour to fall. The only way to make them go quicker is to overpay.

To me Gold Coast are the most likely to trade their FRDP because they have to or lose it on one of their academy picks.

North would trade their end of FR pick but that is no good to us.

Hollands probably the most high potential IMO, then Henry who looks like he was close this season.

 

[joydivision22]

Yeah I did place a heavy caveat on it being unlikely due to difficulty but you have to try. I’d be happy with that trade at each stage if it was to fall down at any point.

1. Keeping 12, 13* and F1 - fine by me
2. Trading 12, 13* for 7 and F2, Keep F1 - prefer than option 1
3. Trade 7, F1 (likely 8-12) for 3 and maybe another F2/3 - ideal.

 

[gringo2011]

Even with a gun head recruiter picking the lights out, all those ‘sleeper’ stars were passed over at least once by every recruiter so its pretty clear it’s mostly pot luck at that range. Is that a fair assessment?

To test the theories, it would be best to look at who went pick 2-5 in those drafts (obvs never going to get pick 1).

2013 J Kelly Billings Bontempelli Kolodjashnij
2014 Petracca Brayshaw J Pickett De Goey
2015 Shache Mills Oliver Parish
2016 Taranto McCluggage Ainsworth Setterfield
2017 Brayshaw Dow LDU Cerra

Just a small sample size (I want to do something else now so I stopped there) but 13/20 you would consider worth the investment. That’s a strong hit rate.

Compare that to maybe 1 or 2 which reach those levels per draft from picks 6-20? Say 2/14 so even if you had three picks in that range, the odds are roughly 2/14, 2/13, 2/12. We’ve consistently followed that trend missing every time as well as missing with our really high picks bar once with King so that obviously doesn’t help.

There are some shockers in that lot. Pickett, Schache, Dow, Setterfield, KK all spudded out on a Paddy level. At least we weren't alone in blowing early picks.

 

[FrogDude]

Of the guys around our pick, Wilson seems to be the guy who stands out to me. Good pace, willing to take the game on and has some forward nouse especially around stoppage. I'd like to trade up for him around the pick 10 mark if he's there, don't wait for him to fall to us. Take either O'Sullivan or Murphy at 13 if we still hold it by draft night

Sandy boy Johnston with a later pick as well looks solid, played solidly at VFL level playing a forward role in a team that wasn't great.

 

[austinnn]

Just an observation I've had from the past few drafts is that we seem to be drafting players who are physically unready, but have all the attributes required to excel at the top level (Nas and Pou specifically). This strategy holds up big time as a player can always fill out once at an AFL club, but if they lack those attributes and footy nous, they can't make up for it. To me, the player that fits that bill for us this year is Darcy Wilson. We should be doing everything in our power to get him in.

For me that's a better bet than taking players who dominate as teenagers because of their height or build. Starting to suspect that Max King might have had it a little too easy as a junior playing a foot above most of his opposition

 

[austinnn]

Trade lol , we would near have to pay them to take him

Straight swap with Essendon for Dylan Shiel

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

Started reading some draft news and Twomey mentions Zane Zakostelsky.

WA TALL ON THE RISE​

WEST Australian tall Zane Zakostelsky looms as a possible top-30 contender as clubs continue to scour the market for key-position options in this year's draft.

Zakostelsky was named best on ground in Claremont's under-18 colts Grand Final win over Perth last weekend, gathering 22 disposals and having 18 hitouts.

DRAFT HUB Click here for the latest draft news

The 17-year-old has played as a ruckman at that level through this season but shapes as a key defensive option for AFL clubs given his 196cm frame.

Zane Zakostelsky flies for a mark during the U18 national championships match between Western Australia and Vic Metro at RSEA Park on July 9, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos
Zakostelsky, who has a background in basketball and athletics, will next week test at the AFL Draft Combine in Melbourne, where he is expected to be a standout performer and further push his draft case.

His endurance and speed combination has impressed, having ran the 20-metre sprint in 2.85 seconds at WA's under-18 testing earlier this year. Some clubs believe he could break into the top 30 draftees by November given his attributes. – Callum Twomey



--------------------------------------

I like that he competes hard.

Has no issues putting body on body and fighting for contested possessions. Finds the ball rather easily?

Could be a potential full back for us? Hybrid ruck?

looks good, but also makes clint jones look like nicky winmar by foot. Reads it nicely in the air tho

 

[Dard Ball Get]

For me that's a better bet than taking players who dominate as teenagers because of their height or build. Starting to suspect that Max King might have had it a little too easy as a junior playing a foot above most of his opposition

Name a player drastically outperforming Max at the same age within the last 30 years.

 

[Baker_for_PM]

What is the likelihood of Croft not nominating Doggies? Think it would be best for his career if he didn't, that has to be the most stacked key forward group in the comp. Given how he has played this year with such a light frame the kid has decent potential.

 

[Significant]

PMBangers latest mock, post finals.



If we want Sanders, Geelong pick is right there.

 

[George]

Name a player drastically outperforming Max at the same age within the last 30 years.

Raph Clarke

 

[sunny3193]

Is there any substance to the Allison to north trade?

It is total bs that I made up because Joffaboy was bitching about no rumours.

 

[Ads734]

McKercher would be such a perfect addition to Owens, Phillipou, Windhager. Has a nice balance of grunt, class and breakaway power.

Probably need pick 2 or 3 though? Would really like to see the club shoot for it.

If everything went perfectly.. (haha)

IN: P13
OUT: Gresham

IN: P7 (Geelong) F2
OUT: P12 P13

IN: P2 (NM)
OUT: P7 F1 Clark (only as a Hail Mary)

Would mean we lose; Gresham, Pick 12, Future 1st (maybe Clark)

Gain; Pick 2 (McKercher), Future 2nd

Think I’d be pretty happy with that.

IMO McKercher will be better then Reid. Usually the types of players who dominate the year like him do not have the skill or athelcism that he has. He just has no flaws in his game. Moves beautifully in traffic, can kick like very few and can fend off. The issue for him will going to Tassie ina few years.

 

[Ads734]

Always has looked talented. Could never understand why he hasn’t played more.

Has zero outside game. Less then Dunstan

 

[Ads734]

Just an observation I've had from the past few drafts is that we seem to be drafting players who are physically unready, but have all the attributes required to excel at the top level (Nas and Pou specifically). This strategy holds up big time as a player can always fill out once at an AFL club, but if they lack those attributes and footy nous, they can't make up for it. To me, the player that fits that bill for us this year is Darcy Wilson. We should be doing everything in our power to get him in.

'Physically ready' is an overstated flaw. The reality is if you have the 'speed' or 'decision making' it doesn;t matter. Ie Naz, Bont even. Like from day dot Nas has looked right at the pace.

 

[Ads734]

I think i agree but with a good talent spotter: ( Toce)?
Dunstan 18, Acres 19: >> M Crouch :23 Gardiner:22, McStay :24 , Merrett 26
Goddard 21, McKenzie 22 >> McLean :26 Webb:27 , Miller :29, Maynard 30
Gresham 18: Yep probably the best at that pick.
Long 25: >> Parfitt 26: , Fisher 27, Lipinski 28 , Bolton 29.
Byrnes 52: Useful player.
Not sure who you get instead of Allison, not a typical draft.

The reality is its so hard to draw conclusions , especially as you move out of the the first 15 picks. There are so many vairables, development, injuries, luck. Look at Chito for example. He was a pick in the 30's and probably had less exposure due to Covid and acadamy. Still a jet though.

 

[Ads734]

Anatomy of a flag list:

FRDP
Daicos (4*)
Pendlebury (5)
Degoey (5)
Moore (9*)
Sidebottom (11)
IQ (13)

2nd round
Maynard (30)
3rd round
Murphy (39)
Mcreery (44)
Daicos (57*)

Traded in
Crisp (part of beams trade)
Elliot (25)
WHE (25)
Howe (29)
Hill (39)
Mitchell(41)
Lipinski(43)
Cameron (56)
Frampton (57)

Rookie
Cox
Mihocek
Ginnivan
Markov (DFA)
————————-

3x top 5
3x top 15

1x 2nd drafted
3x 2nd traded for established players

3x 3rd drafted
5x 3rd traded for established players

4x rookie(mature age)

Would anyone argue their 5 best players are top 11 picks?
Doesn’t mean they nailed every pick either.
Literally another dozen FRDP unnacounted for since Pendlebury taken in 2005.

Build around the stars, Father/son rule mighty handy.
But they have largely built on trading for established players with anything past pick 20. Once again not a rule, they have taken 20ish 2nd/3rd/4th picks to the draft over the last decade.
But success has come from the trade ins over what they have found there.

This info helps us in no way, every list is built differently.
I’m bored, can’t wait for the draft/trade szn!

Ironcilly our best three players are all rookies.

However we are starting t see the blossuming of the higher picks,

King, Nas, Owen, Pou, Still hopefull on clark/coff.