Even with a gun head recruiter picking the lights out, all those ‘sleeper’ stars were passed over at least once by every recruiter so its pretty clear it’s mostly pot luck at that range. Is that a fair assessment?
To test the theories, it would be best to look at who went pick 2-5 in those drafts (obvs never going to get pick 1).
2013 J Kelly Billings Bontempelli Kolodjashnij
2014 Petracca Brayshaw J Pickett De Goey
2015 Shache Mills Oliver Parish
2016 Taranto McCluggage Ainsworth Setterfield
2017 Brayshaw Dow LDU Cerra
Just a small sample size (I want to do something else now so I stopped there) but 13/20 you would consider worth the investment. That’s a strong hit rate.
Compare that to maybe 1 or 2 which reach those levels per draft from picks 6-20? Say 2/14 so even if you had three picks in that range, the odds are roughly 2/14, 2/13, 2/12. We’ve consistently followed that trend missing every time as well as missing with our really high picks bar once with King so that obviously doesn’t help.
All those first round picks pretty much line themselves up in the media before the draft.
If we didn't pick Billings someone was going to , and it was probably going to be before Bont. Someone was going to pick Kolodjashnij as well.
The second round picks are leaving a lot more open to the recruiter, and his ability to spot talent within a kid.
I don't see a team which is wonderfully better than everyone else at it, but the Saints seem to have been worse than everyone else at it.