Preview 2023 Elimination Final - Carlton vs Sydney Friday 8th Sept 7.50PM @ MCG

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …


IN: Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

, Sam Docherty

15

Sam Docherty

Age

31

Ht

187cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

15.1

5star

HB

7.2

4star

M

6.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

22.6

5star

K

16.0

5star

HB

6.6

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

0.6

1star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.4

4star

CL

0.6

3star

, Marc Pittonet

27

Marc Pittonet

Age

28

Ht

202cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.7

2star

K

2.9

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

3.1

5star

HO

22.3

5star

D

8.6

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

CL

3.7

5star

HO

25.9

5star

D

5.8

2star

K

1.2

1star

HB

4.6

4star

CL

2.4

5star

HO

16.6

5star

OUT: Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

, Corey Durdin, Zac Fisher

16

Zac Fisher

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.0

5star

MG

384.0

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

384.0

5star

D

12.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

3.0

5star

, Ollie Hollands

After starting the last game as sub, Caleb Marchbank has been elevated into the starting 22.

AFL team news: Who's in for the elimination final?

Some big Blues are back for the clash with Sydney.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Brodie Kemp	Jacob Weitering	Nic Newman
Half-backs:	Alex Cincotta	Mitch McGovern	Adam Saad
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Sam Docherty
Half-forwards:	Jack Martin	Harry McKay	David Cuningham
Forwards:	Lachie Fogarty	Charlie Curnow	Matthew Owies
Followers:	Marc Pittonet	Adam Cerra	Sam Walsh
Interchange:	Matthew Cottrell	Tom De Koning	George Hewett
	Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:	Paddy Dow	Zac Fisher	Ollie Hollands
	Jesse Motlop

 

[BigFrizz36]

Good luck to all supporters tonight. Let's be loud and help get our team over the line.

 

[Arr0w]

.... Didn't think I'd need to spell it out for anyone, similar conditions, rain early. Bobby Hill clean hands = better than a 207cm bloke running around who isn't as clean below the knees.

Cox, Cameron, Mihocek, Mcstay

Pitto, TDK, McKay, Charlie

Looks somewhat similar to me

 

[Beer n Skittles]

I think we should smash them in the ruck and I think that two genuine rucks against a side which is also a good inside side that wins the contested ball well and tackles well is important.

I think which every side tackles and wins the contested ball better is the side that takes the bullet out of the other sides gun so to speak. Both teams very reliant on that. Both teams looking to dominate those aspects of the game. All of a sudden the ruck becomes important.

Get the ball going forward our way and into the hands of our mids first and it just takes a fair bit of Sydney's strength away.

I don't think their midfield is as tough as ours any more, but it is more dangerous. The young Sydney mids are more ferrari than the traditional Sydney tractor midfielder. Makes it even more important to not allow them clean taps.

Warner's burst from stoppage and Blakey's rebound is my worry - get speed on the ball and it brings their great wings & small / med forwards into the game. Force them to kick long down the line to their subpar talls and instead Weitering, McGovern and Kemp will have a field day. Pressure pressure pressure required.

 

[jimsta10]

Anyone else feel sick?

I gave up a dinner in a box because of this...

 

[lily of laguna]

We are fielding a very very strong side.

On paper it is an excellent side, a very physically strong side, only question is about it's match fitness. This could be where Andrew Russell and our coaching staff earn their keep.

Not too many suprises although I thought Motlop would start in the 22 and Dow would be the sub.

I like the three tallish defenders. Kemp, McGovern and Marchbank can all run well enough to tick the medium/small defender box and then you have them impacting in the air. Swans are going to be looking to be careful with their kicking going forward, we should be pretty strong with intercepting the ball in the air. This should hopefully slow their ball movement down and allow us to get numbers back consistently.

Don't think we are too tall in defence. Marchbank's overlap run and ability to run all day. McGovern and Kemp's speed. We'll be fine.

Two ruckmen, it has failed other sides but it has worked for us. I think ideally we would want Silvagni playing second ruck but we don't have that luxury.

Curnow and McKay just have to work. Both don't have to kick a bag but they do both have to have an impact.

We are going to be quite tall up forward with the two rucks and two big forwards. I can see us playing Motlop as sub and subbing a ruckman out of the game. My guess is that DeKoning spends a fair bit of time forward and on the bench and at some point Pittonet will be subbed out, probably midway through the third and DeKoning will predominantly ruck with Motlop coming in as a tactical sub.

Dow is unlucky but he does not quite fit into that side, same goes for Kennedy. Dow ready should a quicker mid go down, Kennedy ready should a big bodied mid go down.

Fogarty and Cuningham are ther for good reasons. They both offer midfield rotations, which Motlop doesn't and that has been a big part of our turnaround and why we run out games so well these days. Neither big goal kickers but Cuningham is a specialist half forward and links up well. Fogarty is your genuine pressure forward as well. Owies and Martin are two of our better performing forward so hard to squeeze Motlop into that team considering he's not a midfield rotation and is competing with two other forwards in real good form.

I don't think we lose this one, I think this is a game where we should win and will win. Swans have not beaten a top 4 side all season and have only beaten us when we were no good and the Giants out of the other finals teams. They have made hay when playing bottom 10 sides and that is how they got into the finals. Despite our loss to them, I think we are a vastly superior side to them. The only thing that worries me about them is that their strenghths are also ours with their physicality and conteted ball work so they may be able to take the bullets out of our gun a bit.

I am also worried we may be too tall up forward if the night is wet. If the ball starts coming out of the forward line too easily then this could be another reason we make a sub and bring Motlop in and I think the player under pressure to perform in this instance is McKay. If he's not marking it and not impacting the game and we have issues at ground level up forward then it only makes sence to bring Motlop into the game.

Swans have also not won at the MCG this year. Should Sydney win, I think this would be seen as a fair upset, we really do not have an excuse to lose this and our form the last few months has been excellent.

We have beaten a lot of teams better than Sydney. We beat them last season at Marvel when we were not as good as we are now and they went on to become runners up. Sydney being poor on the MCG and not beating any top 4 sides and only two wins over top 8 sides for the year really suggests we should do this easily.

But this is a final and anything can happen.

I think your prediction regarding the sub and the timing of the change is spot on.

Bash and crash until they start to wilt a little then Tom takes over and Mots runs himself ragged.

I have loved Mots since coming back in to the team, his only flaw is his tank and coming in for the second half just increases his ability to impact later in games. He normally starts great and fades a little as is to be expected for a young player.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Aphrodite]

NO. MORE. SLEEPS.

 

[CJMB]

Disposal per clanger is a flawed stat - Cripps & Hew should be very high given they handball more than they kick, all the stats have to be viewed in context & with an eye towards what skews them.
We would be in deep s**t if Crippa wasnt the highest- it would mean he misses a heap of HB.

the point was I think using clangers in relation to disposals is completely flawed as clangers involve a heap of other stuff that has nothing to do with disposals. Free kicks, dropped marks, etc... is completely unrelated to ball use, regardless of if it's by hand or foot. Might as well compare disposals per haircut, or marks per jumper digit.

The flip side of disposal efficiency, which is equally flawed, is kicks 40m and longer to any level of contest are deemed effective, so when you're frequently sending it long you'll get some turnovers counted as effective. It's a pretty archaic bit of statistical logic from the old days when there was more long kicking to marking contests.

Personally, I think the distance shouldn't come into efficiency; it either hit a target or didn't, and with the addition of metres gained and all that stuff you can still 'see' the outcome. Then again, you could do a terrible kick to a bunch of opposition players and the ball somehow gets through the pack untoutched and bounce into the hands of a teammate out the back and that would also be an effective kick, even though it was a terrible decision and you just got lucky.... context is funny sometimes.

 

[Revenant1965]

I'll be leaping off the couch with both nerves and excitement tonight...

 

[CaptainCharisma]

It's game day. Nervous, excited. All of it.

Overall happy with the selections. Some players are stiff to miss out - it is what happens when you're a good side.

Pittonet, Cripps and Docherty strengthen us in the midfield.
As Kingy raves on about every week - this is our strength. Big bodies throwing their weight around. Brutality around the ball. Violence at the contest.

Marchbank makes sense with how tall Sydney's forward line is - confused by the "we're too tall" chatter when looking at the match ups. Besides the fact we only really have one true KPD.
Weitering takes one of the 3 bigs, then McGovern probably gets Heeney. Kemp and Marchy will have to play taller on the other two.

The weather will dry up.
Big Harry will find form tonight and kick a bag. Blues by 27.

LFG BAGGERS!
See you at the G.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Cox, Cameron, Mihocek, Mcstay

Pitto, TDK, McKay, Charlie

Looks somewhat similar to me

difference is, Cox is more of a natural forward IMO

 

[F_therest]

What’s everyone thinking about the late change Marchbank for Motts?

Personally I want the 2 goals Motts will kick, and don’t know what we do with 4 tall defenders.

I'd also like Mott's in but I can see why marchbank is in...Sydney have a lot of forwards who are strong overhead.

I dont think the MC look at the team as having 4 tall defenders...Kemp and Gov are fast and agile, arguably medium sized defenders.

2 talls - weiters and marchbank
2 mediums - gov and Kemp
3 smalls - Newman, Saad and cincotta (Newman and cinc are big bodied too)

 

[Arr0w]

difference is, Cox is more of a natural forward IMO

Both Pie ruckman are decent forward, but think Pitto and TDK are better in the ruck contests

 

[F_therest]

If this wind holds up it’s going to be a bigger factor than any predicted rain, getting good looks at goal and marks close to goal and converting is going to be critical. We don’t want to be reliant on shots from goal from further than 40m out.

Also will be times in the game where we will be cramped inside defensive 50, need to be precise by foot without turning it over in dangerous areas.. Collingwood, particularly Moore used long tk the boundary very well last night, we need to be doing this and then resetting from a throw in rather than being too cute.

Yep, felt like the difference last night was Collingwood able to penetrate and get easy looks at goal from within 40m out on slight angles...compared to Melbourne often having set shots from outside 50m.

Don't want to see a great passage of play be wasted and end up as a point or even no score because the final kick at goal ended up being from outside 50m or on a difficult angle.

 

[Hands On]

Attending finals 79 to mid 87 Had absolutely no nerves or anxiety. Settled in sunk a few ales and enjoyed a few darts (yes you could smoke in ground then) regardless of score and trash talk from opposition supporters. I was always supremely confident we would come out in the third and blow them all out of the water.

The feeling is different this time around I am nervous still in my robe and pacing around in the garage chain smoking. I can think of nothing worst than sitting in level 4 of the southern stand and copping a thrashing.

We need to be loud and blow the roof off the G. Get through and I think we can beat Melb next week. Go Baggers!!!!

 

[JuddgementDay]

Whoa - the weather is putting on a show atm!

It should improve somewhat leading to game time, but I would still like Motlop (or if a defender is required and at a stretch Boyd) to be a late in with Marchbank out - the balance of the team would be better to me.

In any case, regardless of any late ins - we will win pretty easily tonight, as we are simply the better team!

I'm excited and looking forward to going to the game tonight
Let's go Baggers - bring home the win and march towards the 17th cup

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

Lots of glorious blue sky and sun down here on the Peninsula.
Heading up to the ground straight after lunch to stand in the queue at the MCC....I'm tipping the weather will be ok come game time.
I think we'll witness those players built for finals strut their stuff tonight
Charlie, Cezz, Crippa, Weiters, Walshy to all have huge games
Can't wait...ready to run through brick walls...go Baggers

 

[Stamos]

Melbourne looked like the next big dynasty after 2021. What has happened to them?

In 2021 they cobbled together an adequate forwardline with MacDonald having the 2nd best year of his career, Ben Brown chipping in and Jackson as the back-up ruck.
They haven't been able to get close to that since (except for a few games with Petty). They haven't improved their list in the last 2 years, except for Van Rooyen who is still a kid.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Both Pie ruckman are decent forward, but think Pitto and TDK are better in the ruck contests

Yes agreed. But I think for team balance, having the more natural forwards is more conducive to playing dual rucks.

When Pitto or TDK plonk themselves forward it can work sometimes, but often they get in the way, stuff up spacing and leading patterns and just stuff up the forward mojo.

I don't think there's a difference in forward pressure between TDK/Pitto vs Cox/Cameron, however Cox at least fits into the system more seamlesslly when he's forward.


Edit: that's why if all fit I prefer JSOS as the second ruck to backup TDK. He's a far poorer ruck than Pitto but at he adds to the forward chemsitry.

 

[thylacine60]

Anyone else feel sick?

Had no trouble eliminating this morning......

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

ps...tonights weather reminds me of the '95 pre-lim when Scwhass nearly killed Peter Dean right in front of us.
We won that game by 10 goals, hoping for a repeat performance

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Attending finals 79 to mid 87 Had absolutely no nerves or anxiety. Settled in sunk a few ales and enjoyed a few darts (yes you could smoke in ground then) regardless of score and trash talk from opposition supporters. I was always supremely confident we would come out in the third and blow them all out of the water.

The feeling is different this time around I am nervous still in my robe and pacing around in the garage chain smoking….

Wes Lofts would be proud.

 

[Neese]

And flight been delayed 35 minutes.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I'm not nervous. Excited to head down to the 'G... first final for my nephew he's pumped!

 

[jj1978]

If Cripps, Walsh and Cerra all play close to their best and Harry finds a semblance of form we romp this in. Walsh and Cerra only one game to get that touch back which I hope was enough, and McGov's timing was very off which I hope returns.

We're missing some of that bursting X-factor so still does surprise me that at least one of Dow or Motlop are not in.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Yes agreed. But I think for team balance, having the more natural forwards is more conducive to playing dual rucks.

When Pitto or TDK plonk themselves forward it can work sometimes, but often they get in the way, stuff up spacing and leading patterns and just stuff up the forward mojo.

I don't think there's a difference in forward pressure between TDK/Pitto vs Cox/Cameron, however Cox at least fits into the system more seamlesslly when he's forward.


Edit: that's why if all fit I prefer JSOS as the second ruck to backup TDK. He's a far poorer ruck than Pitto but at he adds to the forward chemsitry.

They also provide zero pressure defensively, I would prefer the rucks rotate off the bench than take up space on the ground.