Preview 2023 National Draft Preview Thread [currently: #2, #14 (PA), #19 (PP) #40, #52, #60]

[pupstar]

Yeah I agree somewhat, on the surface it looks like that, but the reality is that his trajectory is nearly identical to LDU, Rozee, De Goey, Cerra, & Gaff.

Maybe the PA death-ride pick would make more sense to us (~8 to 12) but Ash would have to want out and specifically nominate us. Even then GWS would probably want a swap of future 2nd & 3rds..

He’s got so much upside, 56 games of experience already, quick, smart, durable, leadership and silky skills. He’s already had a 35 touch game in his second season and I reckon he would thrive under Clarko.

Agree 100 %. I think roo fanatico8 has a fantastic eye for young talent second to none on our board but and there is the but ha ha i have to agree Sherm i would love him running off our halfback line.

 

[JGreezy]

Agree 100 %. I think roo fanatico8 has a fantastic eye for young talent second to none on our board but and there is the but ha ha i have to agree Sherm i would love him running off our halfback line.

Aren't we in the box seat to add Hunter Clark to fill that role?

If we have a bit of a surprise turnaround year then I expect that we will be hitting the free agent market pretty hard and successfully.

 

[Kangaroos techno]

You'd think that if you had a monkey pressing random buttons to select the picks then they would have done a better job.

Its almost impressively bad.

Lacks context. When you compare it to other clubs, look at similar picks, players wrecked by injury, etc. we actually stack up quite well. Sure there have been hit and misses but during some of those years there were slim pickings except a few that have been diamonds in the dirt.

 

[hoffseason gains]

Lacks context. When you compare it to other clubs, look at similar picks, players wrecked by injury, etc. we actually stack up quite well. Sure there have been hit and misses but during some of those years there were slim pickings except a few that have been diamonds in the dirt.

Exactly. Two things have stuffed us up - 1. Injuries - see: Vickers-Willis, Garner, Harper, Nielsen, Walker, even Comben/Perez to this point.
2. Poor development - you simply do not draft that many ‘bad players’, there’s a reason we have only hit on about 3 late picks (Zurhaar, Larkey, Brown) because our development has been deplorable. Even our top echelon picks fail to make an impact for a number of seasons.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Yeah I agree somewhat, on the surface it looks like that, but the reality is that his trajectory is nearly identical to LDU, Rozee, De Goey, Cerra, & Gaff.

Maybe the PA death-ride pick would make more sense to us (~8 to 12) but Ash would have to want out and specifically nominate us. Even then GWS would probably want a swap of future 2nd & 3rds..

He’s got so much upside, 56 games of experience already, quick, smart, durable, leadership and silky skills. He’s already had a 35 touch game in his second season and I reckon he would thrive under Clarko.

I’d probably consider a pick outside the top 10 for him (say Port’s ends up at pick 12) but you’d have to be confident one of the prime talls in this draft isn’t going to be available.

Don’t get me wrong, I really rate Ash. He is still a bit inconsistent but he has all the tools to be a game breaking half back. I was super keen on him in his draft year, but I just don’t think I could justify spending a top ten pick on a half back flanker.

Adelaide only had to give up a pick after 15 for Jordan Dawson. I think Ash would fetch something similar especially if OOC.

 

[JGreezy]

Lacks context. When you compare it to other clubs, look at similar picks, players wrecked by injury, etc. we actually stack up quite well. Sure there have been hit and misses but during some of those years there were slim pickings except a few that have been diamonds in the dirt.

I think that if you have that many picks in that range, considering all factors, you would still expect at least 1 to have stuck.

We have probably underperformed against random selection.

 

[Kangaroos techno]

I think that if you have that many picks in that range, considering all factors, you would still expect at least 1 to have stuck.

We have probably underperformed against random selection.

Brad Scott's overarching legacy

Admin and Governance are separate things overall the Board are responsible for the good governance of the club and appointing the administrators for business operations and football operations. Insofar as the business side of things have gone it’s a thumbs up as far as footy ops it’s a thumbs...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[JGreezy]

Brad Scott's overarching legacy

Admin and Governance are separate things overall the Board are responsible for the good governance of the club and appointing the administrators for business operations and football operations. Insofar as the business side of things have gone it’s a thumbs up as far as footy ops it’s a thumbs...

www.bigfooty.com

It seems like you want to push this to a bigger discussion about drafting, in general. But we are talking about a very specific range in very specific years.

Of the 9 players that we are talking about, one is still in the AFL and he is playing for another side (Clarke).

 

[pushintheback]

I am also in the same boat in that I think that he is a generational small forward prospect.

I would take him within the top 5 if I were us (if there was an ability to get a KPF some other way). For me obviously based on limited watching before next year kicks into gear for us I’d have it:
1. Harley Reid
2. Dan Curtin
3. Archer Reid
4. Nick Watson

However, I see club land viewing the likes of Moir, Duursma & Caddy higher than him, which could push him to the latter part of the top 10 and this isn’t accounting for any bolters/sliders.

Moir and Duursma will go b4 Archer Reid and Nick Watson. IMO Moir, Duursma and Reid all can play multiple positions, whereas I think Watson is a small fwd only. Yes he has had some mid minutes at school and NAB but at AFL level he is too small. I have Watson in the 12-20 range.

 

[Kangaroos techno]

It seems like you want to push this to a bigger discussion about drafting, in general. But we are talking about a very specific range in very specific years.

Of the 9 players that we are talking about, one is still in the AFL and he is playing for another side (Clarke).

I don't want to push it anywhere but it's the facts. It's easy on the surface to just dismiss the period but there were circumstances that didn't go in our favour. 2 are on afl lists. Wagner was just picked up by Freo. That's 3 teams that have seen something in him now. Walker and EVW made Garner look healthy by comparison. Watson had 2 knee recos.

Not denying there were duds but the strike rate in some of those drafts were shit for most of the teams. Not helped by reaching for Williams and Nielson.

 

[hilly]

God damn there are a lot of stinkers in that bunch. We have torched so many picks between 20-40 over the years.

2014-15-16-17 really ruined our list.

2014 - Durdin (16) Neilson (25) EVW (36)
2015 - Clarke (31), Hibberd (33) Wagner (43)
2016 - Watson (34), Williams (36)
2017 - Walker (23)

Picks Torched for no return across 4 seasons: 16, 23, 25, 31, 34, 36, 36, 43.

There should’ve been at least 1-2 200 game players in that lot.

Absolutely abysmal drafting, made even worse when you look at who was available at some of those picks.

Diabolical.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

God damn there are a lot of stinkers in that bunch. We have torched so many picks between 20-40 over the years.

2014-15-16-17 really ruined our list.

2014 - Durdin (16) Neilson (25) EVW (36)
2015 - Clarke (31), Hibberd (33) Wagner (43)
2016 - Watson (34), Williams (36)
2017 - Walker (23)

Picks Torched for no return across 4 seasons: 16, 23, 25, 31, 34, 36, 36, 43.

There should’ve been at least 1-2 200 game players in that lot.

Absolutely abysmal drafting, made even worse when you look at who was available at some of those picks.

It’s a deadset warzone.

 

[JGreezy]

I don't want to push it anywhere but it's the facts. It's easy on the surface to just dismiss the period but there were circumstances that didn't go in our favour. 2 are on afl lists. Wagner was just picked up by Freo. That's 3 teams that have seen something in him now. Walker and EVW made Garner look healthy by comparison. Watson had 2 knee recos.

Not denying there were duds but the strike rate in some of those drafts were s**t for most of the teams. Not helped by reaching for Williams and Nielson.

Of course there are outside circumstances and other reasons. But the outcome is the outcome. We didn't get as much as we hoped out of those picks. We got almost nothing from 9 picks in that range.

 

[The acurate one]

Really hope that Caddy ends up being 195+. He would compliment our forward line perfectly with his strong hands and physicality.

Daniel Curtin would also be perfect to set at CHB for the next 15 years. We wouldn’t have to rush him either with McKay & Logue down there.

I'd hope to see Logue and McKay at CHB and FB for the next 6 years at least.

As an aside let's say over the next 22 games that CCJ and Comben both show something. How or does that change your opinion on what we should do? I actually am bullish on both now.

Also we have;

1. Archer 3 games
2. Bergman 1 game
3. Bonar 32 games
4. Comben 2 games
5. Curtis 15 games
6. Dawson 4 games
7. Drury 0 games
8. Edwards 0 games ( so many seem to have jumped off the Edwards bus)
9. Free 0 games
10. George 0 games
11. Goater 1 game
12. Harvey 0 games
13. Lazzaro 24 games
14. Perez 19 games
15. Phillips 16 games
16. Powell 31 games
17. Sheezel 0 games
18. Spicer 0 games
19. Wardlaw 0 games
20. Xerri 24 games.

The average for that lot is 8.6 games. It includes ( highlighted 4 first rounders excluding Bonars and 6 second rounders excluding Lazzaros, we rightly should expect great things from all of the highlighted.

I cannot recall us ever having that many youngsters and so many of them at the early to mid-range draft point

We have another two first-rounders to add to the above in a few months' time.

1. Cunnington pick 5
2. McDonald pick 8
3. McKay pick 21 ( more teams in the comp that season it would seem)
4. Simpkin pick 12
5. LDU pick 4
6. Thomas pick 8
7. Phillips pick 3
8. Powell pick 13
9. Sheezel pick 3
10. Wardlaw pick 4
11. ???
12. ???

My point is we I believe do not require anymore picks, we need experience and have two firsts, not saying trade for shitmen. But if we get this right we could be right up there very quickly.
Like season 2024. And launching a blitz Krieg in 2025.

The comp aint that flash currently and will get worse once Tassie comes on board. I was all over us getting youth and finishing low to get access to some elite talent. I think it is mission accomplished.
We now need to back in our coaches and fitness teams to get every ounce of ability out of these colts.

Also I think in a couple of years' time we'll look back on the JHFF as the line-in-the-sand moment.

As it stands the 2021 draft has provided Archer, Bergman, Goater and Curtis. As you'd know, that ain't a bad year's work when one compares it to some of our other draft years.

 

[pushintheback]

I'd hope to see Logue and McKay at CHB and FB for the next 6 years at least.

As an aside let's say over the next 22 games that CCJ and Comben both show something. How or does that change your opinion on what we should do? I actually am bullish on both now.

Also we have;

1. Archer 3 games
2. Bergman 1 game
3. Bonar 32 games
4. Comben 2 games
5. Curtis 15 games
6. Dawson 4 games
7. Drury 0 games
8. Edwards 0 games ( so many seem to have jumped off the Edwards bus)
9. Free 0 games
10. George 0 games
11. Goater 1 game
12. Harvey 0 games
13. Lazzaro 24 games
14. Perez 19 games
15. Phillips 16 games
16. Powell 31 games
17. Sheezel 0 games
18. Spicer 0 games
19. Wardlaw 0 games
20. Xerri 24 games.

The average for that lot is 8.6 games. It includes ( highlighted 4 first rounders excluding Bonars and 6 second rounders excluding Lazzaros, we rightly should expect great things from all of the highlighted.

I cannot recall us ever having that many youngsters and so many of them at the early to mid-range draft point

We have another two first-rounders to add to the above in a few months' time.

1. Cunnington pick 5
2. McDonald pick 8
3. McKay pick 21 ( more teams in the comp that season it would seem)
4. Simpkin pick 12
5. LDU pick 4
6. Thomas pick 8
7. Phillips pick 3
8. Powell pick 13
9. Sheezel pick 3
10. Wardlaw pick 4
11. ???
12. ???

My point is we I believe do not require anymore picks, we need experience and have two firsts, not saying trade for shitmen. But if we get this right we could be right up there very quickly.
Like season 2024. And launching a blitz Krieg in 2025.

The comp aint that flash currently and will get worse once Tassie comes on board. I was all over us getting youth and finishing low to get access to some elite talent. I think it is mission accomplished.
We now need to back in our coaches and fitness teams to get every ounce of ability out of these colts.

Also I think in a couple of years' time we'll look back on the JHFF as the line-in-the-sand moment.

As it stands the 2021 draft has provided Archer, Bergman, Goater and Curtis. As you'd know, that ain't a bad year's work when one compares it to some of our other draft years.

Your point is one worth exploring. The question would be what do the kangas need. As an objective observer like many clubs I think u need speed and longterm depth across the board. The most recent successful teams have big bookends and double up on these up fwd eg Hawkins/Cameron, Rewoldt/Lynch. The best thing about this years draft is the top end talent are not mids (at this stage anyway). The talls like Caddy, Curtin, A. Reid, Tholstrup (excl. Walter as he will land at GC) are all showing signs that they will be longterm players. Then you have hybrids like Duursma, Moir, Philactides, Sanders, Patton. Put the talls and hybrids on the boards and this is why clubs are all scrambling for high picks this year, clubs do not want to give up high picks this year. TBH even though the kangas have recruited well over the past couple of years, you are still a few years away from success so if i was Rawlings I'd be going to the draft with all first round picks in hand and use 2nd & 3rd round picks for potential trades.

Here is a list of 2023 players out of contract, including UFA. AFL Out of Contract Players in 2023

 

[The acurate one]

Your point is one worth exploring. The question would be what do the kangas need. As an objective observer like many clubs I think u need speed and longterm depth across the board. The most recent successful teams have big bookends and double up on these up fwd eg Hawkins/Cameron, Rewoldt/Lynch. The best thing about this years draft is the top end talent are not mids (at this stage anyway). The talls like Caddy, Curtin, A. Reid, Tholstrup (excl. Walter as he will land at GC) are all showing signs that they will be longterm players. Then you have hybrids like Duursma, Moir, Philactides, Sanders, Patton. Put the talls and hybrids on the boards and this is why clubs are all scrambling for high picks this year, clubs do not want to give up high picks this year. TBH even though the kangas have recruited well over the past couple of years, you are still a few years away from success so if i was Rawlings I'd be going to the draft with all first round picks in hand and use 2nd & 3rd round picks for potential trades.

Here is a list of 2023 players out of contract, including UFA. AFL Out of Contract Players in 202

yeah don't disagree with you and should we go to the draft I'm mighty fine with that.
We'll have a much better idea at seasons end I suppose, just hope I'm not wanting seasons end by rd 3. Am over that.

 

[DesertRoo]

I'd hope to see Logue and McKay at CHB and FB for the next 6 years at least.

As an aside let's say over the next 22 games that CCJ and Comben both show something. How or does that change your opinion on what we should do? I actually am bullish on both now.

Also we have;

1. Archer 3 games
2. Bergman 1 game
3. Bonar 32 games
4. Comben 2 games
5. Curtis 15 games
6. Dawson 4 games
7. Drury 0 games
8. Edwards 0 games ( so many seem to have jumped off the Edwards bus)
9. Free 0 games
10. George 0 games
11. Goater 1 game
12. Harvey 0 games
13. Lazzaro 24 games
14. Perez 19 games
15. Phillips 16 games
16. Powell 31 games
17. Sheezel 0 games
18. Spicer 0 games
19. Wardlaw 0 games
20. Xerri 24 games.

The average for that lot is 8.6 games. It includes ( highlighted 4 first rounders excluding Bonars and 6 second rounders excluding Lazzaros, we rightly should expect great things from all of the highlighted.

I cannot recall us ever having that many youngsters and so many of them at the early to mid-range draft point

We have another two first-rounders to add to the above in a few months' time.

1. Cunnington pick 5
2. McDonald pick 8
3. McKay pick 21 ( more teams in the comp that season it would seem)
4. Simpkin pick 12
5. LDU pick 4
6. Thomas pick 8
7. Phillips pick 3
8. Powell pick 13
9. Sheezel pick 3
10. Wardlaw pick 4
11. ???
12. ???

My point is we I believe do not require anymore picks, we need experience and have two firsts, not saying trade for shitmen. But if we get this right we could be right up there very quickly.
Like season 2024. And launching a blitz Krieg in 2025.

The comp aint that flash currently and will get worse once Tassie comes on board. I was all over us getting youth and finishing low to get access to some elite talent. I think it is mission accomplished.
We now need to back in our coaches and fitness teams to get every ounce of ability out of these colts.

Also I think in a couple of years' time we'll look back on the JHFF as the line-in-the-sand moment.

As it stands the 2021 draft has provided Archer, Bergman, Goater and Curtis. As you'd know, that ain't a bad year's work when one compares it to some of our other draft years.

The competition is set up for teams rising up the ladder, if we start improving, we’ll be able to pick up free agents to fill the gaps, I wouldn’t be trading away our first rounders.

But all this is basically hangs on internal improvement, if we don’t see much, we’ll have to start trading away 1st rounders for shitmen, to get us off the bottom of the ladder.

 

[The acurate one]

The competition is set up for teams rising up the ladder, if we start improving, we’ll be able to pick up free agents to fill the gaps, I wouldn’t be trading away our first rounders.

But all this is basically hangs on internal improvement, if we don’t see much, we’ll have to start trading away 1st rounders for shitmen, to get us off the bottom of the ladder.

Mate we're a no shitmen zone, I think by season's end our biggest gaps will be HBF's and a small fwd. So it could be like going to Thailand to buy a pack of smokes with a 100 aus note. eg Drafting a small fwd with pick 4. Or a HBF.

I agree on FA's. When we were great, plenty wanted to join us. We couldn't accommodate them, unfortunately. Alastair Lynch is one such player.

 

[DesertRoo]

Mate we're a no shitmen zone, I think by season's end our biggest gaps will be HBF's and a small fwd. So it could be like going to Thailand to buy a pack of smokes with a 100 aus note. eg Drafting a small fwd with pick 4. Or a HBF.

I agree on FA's. When we were great, plenty wanted to join us. We couldn't accommodate them, unfortunately. Alastair Lynch is one such player.

Of course I’d like to say we’re a no shitmen zone but as you said our biggest perceived weakness is a hbf or small forward and we might even have a hbf if Perez or the Goat stand up.
But if all goes to shit again and we’re sitting here next year on a couple of wins, we’ll need to overpay a group of spuds, to at least become competitive. As that’s the starting point competitive, we haven’t been that for a long long time now.

 

[Sphynx]

Moir and Duursma will go b4 Archer Reid and Nick Watson. IMO Moir, Duursma and Reid all can play multiple positions, whereas I think Watson is a small fwd only. Yes he has had some mid minutes at school and NAB but at AFL level he is too small. I have Watson in the 12-20 range.

I sincerely hope Watson goes in that range as it means we will get him with Ports pick.

Not a chance in hell he goes near the back end of the fist round though.

My prediction is he kicks 3.5+ goals per game in the NAB league and takes the absolute piss and still goes in the first 6 despite his height though.

He may only be a small forward, but he will be in the best 5-6 small forwards in the league from his very first game.

 

[pushintheback]

He may only be a small forward, but he will be in the best 5-6 small forwards in the league from his very first game.

I like your optimism but a slight exaggeration. Out of this lot who is Watson better than?
Shai Bolten
Charlie Cameron
Tyson Stengle
Jack Ginnivan
Kysaiah Pickett
Jamie Elliot
Cody Weightman
Jack Higgins
Lincoln McCarthy
Dylan Moore
Toby Greene
Luke Breust
Tom Papley
Gryan Miers - I will concede he's better than Gryan

 

[Sphynx]

I like your optimism but a slight exaggeration. Out of this lot who is Watson better than?
Shai Bolten
Charlie Cameron
Tyson Stengle
Jack Ginnivan
Kysaiah Pickett
Jamie Elliot
Cody Weightman
Jack Higgins
Lincoln McCarthy
Dylan Moore
Toby Greene
Luke Breust
Tom Papley
Gryan Miers - I will concede he's better than Gryan

He will be better than all of them.

He’s better than almost half of them already.

I’d cash in our Port F1 pick right now and start him in Rnd 1 if I could.

He’s probably the best player in the draft right now putting aside physical attributes.

 

[the big lebowski]

I like your optimism but a slight exaggeration. Out of this lot who is Watson better than?
Shai Bolten
Charlie Cameron
Tyson Stengle
Jack Ginnivan
Kysaiah Pickett
Jamie Elliot
Cody Weightman
Jack Higgins
Lincoln McCarthy
Dylan Moore
Toby Greene
Luke Breust
Tom Papley
Gryan Miers - I will concede he's better than Gryan

Interesting discussion. One which I’m not equipped to provide anything real.

That said, his under 17 year doesn’t appear too far off rachele’s u18 draft year statistically. Certainly rachele’s looks a bit better, but I can’t see why Watson wouldn’t improve this year and if he does, why couldn’t he go in a similar draft range to rachele. Or rankin for that matter.

 

[pushintheback]

Interesting discussion. One which I’m not equipped to provide anything real.

That said, his under 17 year doesn’t appear too far off rachele’s u18 draft year statistically. Certainly rachele’s looks a bit better, but I can’t see why Watson wouldn’t improve this year and if he does, why couldn’t he go in a similar draft range to rachele. Or rankin for that matter.

Rachele 180cm
Rankin 181cm
Watson 169 cm

This is a big difference in height. The other difference is Rachele & Rankin will also play some mid minutes at some stage.
I have said many times Watson is an excitement machine and the fans will love him including me but there is a big difference between NAB and AFL.
C. Daniel is the same size. He's a jet but there is no denying he gets rag dolled and he plays loose. Time will tell i guess but i cant see a 169cm player going at the same draft range as Rachele & Rankin. I stick with my range of 12-20 for Watson...still a first rounder. Time will tell

 

[JGreezy]

Rachele 180cm
Rankin 181cm
Watson 169 cm

This is a big difference in height. The other difference is Rachele & Rankin will also play some mid minutes at some stage.
I have said many times Watson is an excitement machine and the fans will love him including me but there is a big difference between NAB and AFL.
C. Daniel is the same size. He's a jet but there is no denying he gets rag dolled and he plays loose. Time will tell i guess but i cant see a 169cm player going at the same draft range as Rachele & Rankin. I stick with my range of 12-20 for Watson...still a first rounder. Time will tell

Its hard to say. I think that a lot of teams will rank him lower because of his height (right or wrong). But it will only take one or two team in the top 8 being believers and he won't make it past there.