Review 2023 National Draft Review Thread II [McKercher, Z.Duursma, Goad, W.Dawson, Hardeman, Maley]

[Hearts to hearts]

I think GR gets to run it as it's his thread.

Pretty much the perfect crime for the mods.

Is it bad to say that makes me more confident it will be up to date and accurate?

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Is it bad to say that makes me more confident it will be up to date and accurate?

Is it bad to say I take that as a compliment that we made the right choice to be lazy?

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Give them pick 3 along with 15 and call it a deal for pick 1 and possibly some late change like a future or current 3rd or 4th. If that's not enough, I wouldn't hesitate to give them the other Future 1st PP.

Essentially worst case:

North Give: Pick 3, 15 and 2024 PP End of First Round pick (early 20's).
North Get: Pick 1 and 2024 3rd Round Pick (late 30's-early 40's)

WC Give: Pick 1 and 2024 3rd Round Pick (late 30's - early 40's)
WCE Get: Pick 3, 15 and 2024 PP End of First Round Pick (Tied to NM)

I'm assuming if that went through, we also have a gentleman's agreement that NMFC do not draft Curtin at pick 1 or pick 2.

West Coast come up approx. 750 draft "points" to the good if you want to look at it that way.

So you're saying:

Harley > #3 + #15 + 2024 #20 (approx, let's call it pick 20)

Have you ever considered that Eagles think exactly what you think? That Harley is better than all those picks?


1. When you have a top 5 pick in the draft, you typically use it on contested ball winning midfielders. Most of the elite midfielders are drafted in the top 5. You might pick up a KPF there, but generally it's contested mids. As you move up the ladder, so does your pick, and as you should have already drafted the required ball winning mids, you start looking at KPFs, then small forwards, then outside mids. Get to the back of the first round and it's KPDs, then rucks, then last of all, the lepers of the comp, half back flankers. Generally speaking.

2. So they Eagles are really poor in contest ball. Yeo is last legs, TK is outside, Sheed and Gaff are spuds, Ginbey and Hewett are noobs. The Eagles get smashed in contested ball. North on the other hand have built a young midfield that is going places. Uniacke the bull, Sheezel the elite decision and disposal, Thomas the class, then Simpkin, Scott, and Powell. North are short on KP. You've got Larkey and that's about it.

So;

The Eagles need contest ball winning mids, North need KPs.

If the Eagles don't take Harley, their options are:

McKercher (Tas flight risk)
Sanders (Tas flight risk)
Curtin (you should never spend a top 5 pick on a CHB)
Duursma (captain risky, could be a gun but could end up Andrew Embley)
Caddy (risky)
Watson (you should never spend a top 5 pick on a SF)

The options for the Eagles aren't very appealing.

On the other hand;

North could go;

McKercher/Curtin
Duursma/Curtin

Or split one of those picks and go
McKercher/Curtain/O'Sullivan
or some other combination of goodness.


So to be clear, West Coast need Reid way more than you do.

So what's he worth? It's all down to the options. Those other players (and combinations of players) are simply no way near as enticing as Harley.

I suspect West Coast won't even look at anything less that #2 and #3. Conversely, North would be crazy to trade #2 and #3. Also consider that any trade you think is good, the Eagles are likely to think exactly the same and say no. There's going to be a sizeable gap between the highest amount North want to pay, and the lowest amount the Eagles will accept.

The most likely outcome in this is the Eales draft Harley, and North draft a mix of players that include mids and KPs.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Merlin007]

Is it bad to say that makes me more confident it will be up to date and accurate?

wow, them's fightin' words

 

[PokerRoo]

I don't think so, they gave up a fair bit to move 14 to 11. Is 6 and 11 going to tempt anything if 6 and 14 couldn't?

If westcoke think curtin will slide, then 6 & 11 is a good deal for them. Big risk for them though

but they are better off taking 2 and 15 from us

 

[The Filth Wizard]

If westcoke think curtin will slide, then 6 & 11 is a good deal for them. Big risk for them though

If they even want Curtin.

It would be a huge risk.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

So many questions with our draft strategy, it's exciting....

Do we have any mature age players in mind for 15/18/21?

Live trade on draft night for futures? 15 & 18 are in that sweet spot for a club to offer up a future 1st!

Will we bundle them up and chase another top 10 pick?

Will we just go to the draft with 6 picks inside the top 30?

I'd be thrilled if we just went to the draft with this hand and took 6 top 30 players!

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

If westcoke think curtin will slide, then 6 & 11 is a good deal for them. Big risk for them though

but they are better off taking 2 and 15 from us

They're not that keen on Curtin. I wouldn't think they'd take either of those deals. They're not even in the ball park.

You'd prefer Harley to 2 and 15, right? So why would you think the Eagles would prefer 2 and 15 over Harley?

And why do you think 17 club want Harley, but the Eagles want Curtin?

 

[Only Forwards]

Curtin (you should never spend a top 5 pick on a CHB)

McKercher/Curtin
Duursma/Curtin

So North should do what you say you should never do.

 

[billnats]

So you're saying:

Harley > #3 + #15 + 2024 #20 (approx, let's call it pick 20)

Have you ever considered that Eagles think exactly what you think? That Harley is better than all those picks?


1. When you have a top 5 pick in the draft, you typically use it on contested ball winning midfielders. Most of the elite midfielders are drafted in the top 5. You might pick up a KPF there, but generally it's contested mids. As you move up the ladder, so does your pick, and as you should have already drafted the required ball winning mids, you start looking at KPFs, then small forwards, then outside mids. Get to the back of the first round and it's KPDs, then rucks, then last of all, the lepers of the comp, half back flankers. Generally speaking.

2. So they Eagles are really poor in contest ball. Yeo is last legs, TK is outside, Sheed and Gaff are spuds, Ginbey and Hewett are noobs. The Eagles get smashed in contested ball. North on the other hand have built a young midfield that is going places. Uniacke the bull, Sheezel the elite decision and disposal, Thomas the class, then Simpkin, Scott, and Powell. North are short on KP. You've got Larkey and that's about it.

So;

The Eagles need contest ball winning mids, North need KPs.

If the Eagles don't take Harley, their options are:

McKercher (Tas flight risk)
Sanders (Tas flight risk)
Curtin (you should never spend a top 5 pick on a CHB)
Duursma (captain risky, could be a gun but could end up Andrew Embley)
Caddy (risky)
Watson (you should never spend a top 5 pick on a SF)

The options for the Eagles aren't very appealing.

On the other hand;

North could go;

McKercher/Curtin
Duursma/Curtin

Or split one of those picks and go
McKercher/Curtain/O'Sullivan
or some other combination of goodness.


So to be clear, West Coast need Reid way more than you do.

So what's he worth? It's all down to the options. Those other players (and combinations of players) are simply no way near as enticing as Harley.

I suspect West Coast won't even look at anything less that #2 and #3. Conversely, North would be crazy to trade #2 and #3. Also consider that any trade you think is good, the Eagles are likely to think exactly the same and say no. There's going to be a sizeable gap between the highest amount North want to pay, and the lowest amount the Eagles will accept.

The most likely outcome in this is the Eales draft Harley, and North draft a mix of players that include mids and KPs.

Ye I’m not reading that.

Just take Reid

 

[Ura]

I think draft hand we have built is starting to worry eagle fans…. You don’t build that hand and not push up.

 

[hurricane]

You'd prefer Harley to 2 and 15, right? So why would you think the Eagles would prefer 2 and 15 over Harley?

Not too hard to see.

Because we have multiple first round picks - we can afford to trade a couple of them for something higher quality.

And because WC have only one first round pick - they may want to dilute it slightly to speed their rebuild.

 

[Psicosis]

They're not that keen on Curtin. I wouldn't think they'd take either of those deals. They're not even in the ball park.

You'd prefer Harley to 2 and 15, right? So why would you think the Eagles would prefer 2 and 15 over Harley?

And why do you think 17 club want Harley, but the Eagles want Curtin?

Stop pretending like you know whether they’re keen on Curtin or not.

 

[LB2Snake]

So you're saying:

Harley > #3 + #15 + 2024 #20 (approx, let's call it pick 20)

Have you ever considered that Eagles think exactly what you think? That Harley is better than all those picks?


1. When you have a top 5 pick in the draft, you typically use it on contested ball winning midfielders. Most of the elite midfielders are drafted in the top 5. You might pick up a KPF there, but generally it's contested mids. As you move up the ladder, so does your pick, and as you should have already drafted the required ball winning mids, you start looking at KPFs, then small forwards, then outside mids. Get to the back of the first round and it's KPDs, then rucks, then last of all, the lepers of the comp, half back flankers. Generally speaking.

2. So they Eagles are really poor in contest ball. Yeo is last legs, TK is outside, Sheed and Gaff are spuds, Ginbey and Hewett are noobs. The Eagles get smashed in contested ball. North on the other hand have built a young midfield that is going places. Uniacke the bull, Sheezel the elite decision and disposal, Thomas the class, then Simpkin, Scott, and Powell. North are short on KP. You've got Larkey and that's about it.

So;

The Eagles need contest ball winning mids, North need KPs.

If the Eagles don't take Harley, their options are:

McKercher (Tas flight risk)
Sanders (Tas flight risk)
Curtin (you should never spend a top 5 pick on a CHB)
Duursma (captain risky, could be a gun but could end up Andrew Embley)
Caddy (risky)
Watson (you should never spend a top 5 pick on a SF)

The options for the Eagles aren't very appealing.

On the other hand;

North could go;

McKercher/Curtin
Duursma/Curtin

Or split one of those picks and go
McKercher/Curtain/O'Sullivan
or some other combination of goodness.


So to be clear, West Coast need Reid way more than you do.

So what's he worth? It's all down to the options. Those other players (and combinations of players) are simply no way near as enticing as Harley.

I suspect West Coast won't even look at anything less that #2 and #3. Conversely, North would be crazy to trade #2 and #3. Also consider that any trade you think is good, the Eagles are likely to think exactly the same and say no. There's going to be a sizeable gap between the highest amount North want to pay, and the lowest amount the Eagles will accept.

The most likely outcome in this is the Eales draft Harley, and North draft a mix of players that include mids and KPs.

You quote this: "I suspect West Coast won't even look at anything less that #2 and #3", like it's actually true.
Are you O'Brien? I don't think you are, you'd be too busy right now. He hasn't even said that himself, anywhere, has he?
I get that you are passionate, we all are, but you are living in dream land to think any club would give up picks 2 AND 3 for 1, when all are unproven players. It ain't gunna happen.
Think you need to lower your expectations a little.....It'll either happen, fairly, with WC getting the chop out of course, but it won't be a Disneyland offer, just doesn't happen, or it won't. Simples.
There's always next year's "Generational Talent" they will be talking about in about a month and a half.
I love Harley, speaks magnificently, plays great, tough footy, but no club is going to mortgage their complete future for him, no one.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

So North should do what you say you should never do.

Typically, when you sit down the bottom and draft Uniacke, Powell, Thomas, Sheezel, Warlord, you start moving up the ladder and you're no longer getting top 5 picks. So you start drafting in KPF, SFs, and outside mids. Given North have a very good midfield in the making, AND the top 5 being full of midfield talent next year, you should break the mould.

Typically I don't like splitting top 5 picks, nor drafting anything but ball winning mids and elite KPFs in the top 5, but I'd do both if I were North. I'd make this the year of drafting KPs so I'd look to split one of those top picks and potentially target Curtin and O'Sullivan, and then with 15 look at Archer Reid. With that other top pick - I'd take a punt on the flight risk McKercher. Duursma and Watson also good for you guys.

Option 1 - split 1 pick
McKercher or Duursma
Curtin
O'Sullivan
A.Reid
Morris

Option 1 - split both 2 and 3
Curtin
Watson
O'Sullivan
Caddy
A.Reid
Morris

And then next year, grab one more elite mid if you finish bottom 4.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Stop pretending like you know whether they’re keen on Curtin or not.

Lol, 17 clubs are fapping over Harley and you think the Eagles want a CHB? Let's not be irrational. Let's just assume the Eagles want the same guy 10m other Aussies want. Even my dog wants him.

 

[Psicosis]

WC with only Pick 1 and a player that doesn’t want to go there:

North with 5 first rounders:

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

You quote this: "I suspect West Coast won't even look at anything less that #2 and #3", like it's actually true.
Are you O'Brien? I don't think you are, you'd be too busy right now. He hasn't even said that himself, anywhere, has he?
I get that you are passionate, we all are, but you are living in dream land to think any club would give up picks 2 AND 3 for 1, when all are unproven players. It ain't gunna happen.
Think you need to lower your expectations a little.....It'll either happen, fairly, with WC getting the chop out of course, but it won't be a Disneyland offer, just doesn't happen, or it won't. Simples.
There's always next year's "Generational Talent" they will be talking about in about a month and a half.
I love Harley, speaks magnificently, plays great, tough footy, but no club is going to mortgage their complete future for him, no one.

1. I've outlined the reasons why trades less than that won't appeal
2. I don't think North will give up 2 and 3. I said that clearly. You obviously missed it.
3. I don't need to lower my expectation. I don't want to trade him. The only expectation I have is that there will be a gap between the maximum North will offer, and the minimum West Coast will accept. I don't believe there will be a trade.

I seems like you misread my post.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

North with 5 first rounders:

Looks like we see it the same way. You should be stoked and resigned to it being highly likely you go to the draft with the best draft hand anyone has had in a long time. Pretty much all Eagles supporters are stoked we will likely draft Harley. It's champagne corks all round.

 

[Flawed Genius]

Looks like we see it the same way. You should be stoked and resigned to it being highly likely you go to the draft with the best draft hand anyone has had in a long time. Pretty much all Eagles supporters are stoked we will likely draft Harley. It's champagne corks all round.

So why are you still here?

 

[LB2Snake]

1. I've outlined the reasons why trades less than that won't appeal
2. I don't think North will give up 2 and 3. I said that clearly. You obviously missed it.
3. I don't need to lower my expectation. I don't want to trade him. The only expectation I have is that there will be a gap between the maximum North will offer, and the minimum West Coast will accept. I don't believe there will be a trade.

I seems like you misread my post.

It's quite possible I misread your post, it was like JR Tolkien had jotted down a few thoughts.

As I stated previously, none of us know. Personally, I think you'll take Dees offer now. Curtin projected to slide to 6.

 

[PokerRoo]

They're not that keen on Curtin. I wouldn't think they'd take either of those deals. They're not even in the ball park.

You'd prefer Harley to 2 and 15, right? So why would you think the Eagles would prefer 2 and 15 over Harley?

And why do you think 17 club want Harley, but the Eagles want Curtin?

I am sure Eagles would prefer Reid, but at the moment its Reid and then something like pick 22 if not more after all the GC academy picks ad Father Sons. Getting 1 super high end pick and another first rounder may make more sense in the situation they are in. That wold be what they are tossing up.

 

[Horizons_00]

We take the best player no matter what. Midfield, KPD etc

Scale up as high as we can and take a chance at Reid

Reid may have spoken with Clarko already and has that effect. West coast are going no where as a club. It’s a easy choice for him

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Ye I’m not reading that.

Just take Reid

You summarised my post perfectly.