Preview 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Sat 23rd Sept 5.15PM @ Gabba

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TEAM IS IN …


IN: Jordan Boyd, Jack Martin, Harry McKay

OUT: David Cuningham, Brodie Kemp, Matthew Kennedy, Matthew Owies








Backs:Alex CincottaJacob WeiteringAdam Saad
Half-backs:Caleb MarchbankMitch McGovernNic Newman
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsOllie Hollands
Half-forwards:Tom De KoningHarry McKaySam Docherty
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowJesse Motlop
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Jordan BoydMatthew CottrellGeorge Hewett
Jack Martin
Emergencies:David CuninghamBrodie KempMatthew Kennedy
Matthew Owies
 
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I think Voss has given up (for now) on trying to improve the speed of the backline. Instead he makes sure no one gets out the back with structure. He concedes high and wide entries rather than have Weiters sucked up the ground and risk deep entries or out the back goals.

As a result as much as I want Boyd to play he will not even be in the frame.

Yet I think letting Daniher roam on the 50 arc on his own is a disaster and so we have a big problem this week.

I think our secondary talls (Marchy and Kemp) are in erratic (at best) form and are def our biggest weakness right now. Kemp was awful on Friday night. No other word for it. His positioning was terrible. He’s not body checking his man at all. Lost his man so many times. He’s staying in but he’s a big problem right now. One that’s not solved by Marchy. Marchy and Kemp cannot cover for Weiters on Daniher uo the ground. So weiters has to stay wi the him. Which then really exposes our pace because we won’t have the goal keeper.

I felt at the ground that Doc was torched in the end to end running by Langdon. Not criticising him! I love him. Just he can’t do the training at the moment to get up to the kilometres needed for wing.

All these points make me prefer a slight change this week (to add to the obvious Kennedy, Cuners for McKay, Martin).

I want more defensive cover for our weakness (pace down back). Doc plays central defensive mid brilliantly in my view. Great at centre bounce and then plays sweeper. Organises and reads the play. Doesn’t have to run as much as he does when wing. Can press back and plug holes easier. I don’t think Hewett gets back at all well and would prefer him as sub this week.

Playing Doc on ball then gives the full game to Hollands on a wing. I don’t rate the Lions wings (Mcluggage is mostly centre forward now) and think Hollands can do well. With Cotts, Doc and Acres they really push back hard to help and then provide spread options the other way. I think Doc, Cerra and Walsh can cover their clearance exits well and apply the pressure needed on the ball carrier.

Strongly doubt all that happens but is my pref.
 
Mots needs to stay in the 22. We need his class around the goals.

Controversial call but I’d be dropping Pitto for JSOS. I’ve been a big supporter of Pitto this year and an advocate for 2 rucks but TDK has gone next level and feel the extra run, smarts and flexibility that JSOS would provide would be beneficial.

The best game we’ve played this year was against Port and our ruck combo of TDK and JSOS worked a great - was also JSOS best game for the years.
 

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Just further to my last point-

Our last three games the backline has leaked pretty badly and has allowed scores 50 percent of the time. Can blame the midfield sure. But somewhere between the midfield and backline it needs to lift.

Hope is not a plan. Something has to change this week. Only changing two forwards for two forwards is an error.
 
I think Voss has given up (for now) on trying to improve the speed of the backline. Instead he makes sure no one gets out the back with structure. He concedes high and wide entries rather than have Weiters sucked up the ground and risk deep entries or out the back goals.

As a result as much as I want Boyd to play he will not even be in the frame.

Yet I think letting Daniher roam on the 50 arc on his own is a disaster and so we have a big problem this week.

I think our secondary talls (Marchy and Kemp) are in erratic (at best) form and are def our biggest weakness right now. Kemp was awful on Friday night. No other word for it. His positioning was terrible. He’s not body checking his man at all. Lost his man so many times. He’s staying in but he’s a big problem right now. One that’s not solved by Marchy. Marchy and Kemp cannot cover for Weiters on Daniher uo the ground. So weiters has to stay wi the him. Which then really exposes our pace because we won’t have the goal keeper.

I felt at the ground that Doc was torched in the end to end running by Langdon. Not criticising him! I love him. Just he can’t do the training at the moment to get up to the kilometres needed for wing.

All these points make me prefer a slight change this week (to add to the obvious Kennedy, Cuners for McKay, Martin).

I want more defensive cover for our weakness (pace down back). Doc plays central defensive mid brilliantly in my view. Great at centre bounce and then plays sweeper. Organises and reads the play. Doesn’t have to run as much as he does when wing. Can press back and plug holes easier. I don’t think Hewett gets back at all well and would prefer him as sub this week.

Playing Doc on ball then gives the full game to Hollands on a wing. I don’t rate the Lions wings (Mcluggage is mostly centre forward now) and think Hollands can do well. With Cotts, Doc and Acres they really push back hard to help and then provide spread options the other way. I think Doc, Cerra and Walsh can cover their clearance exits well and apply the pressure needed on the ball carrier.

Strongly doubt all that happens but is my pref.
According to Voss , Doch hasn't been 100% for a couple of months now with a problematic calf issue and now add to that a dislocated shoulder. Weitering/Newman and Saad have had to be good enough to carry Marhbank and Kemps occasional fluffs - Weitering playing goal keeper has worked a treat - agreed Daniher is at his most dangerous top of the arc - and that is a mismatch which will require team efforts to minimise.

The jo the goose over the back goals are a Brisbane specialty drawing defensive structures forwards and then releasing their smalls into open paddock same as Collingwood...Carlton defenders have been coached to play shoulder to shoulder as much as possible from behind and that generally has worked- but Marchbank and Kemp are prone to get loose as is McGovern - cant expect to keep a finals team scoreless though I guess it will be all about minimising

one of many reasons I think we have to stack the midfield and maximise rotations and try and make it a 4 quarter, ground ball -contested game- -if Brisbane have a relative weakness it is the contested game.
 
Can't forget where we are coming from.

Carlton have been probably the worst team in the competition this century. Since 2000 we have played just 6 finals series. Been Bottom four 9 times and won five wooden spoons. Prior to last Friday night Carlton have not won two finals in a season since 1999 and that nearly didn't happen as we only beat Essendon by a point that year. Prior to that it was 1995 that we had won more than two finals. This will be the first time Carlton have progressed to a preliminary final in 23 years.

We finished the 90s the most successful AFL club of all time with more premierships than anyone else. A superior win loss record over all other teams bar Port Adelaide. And a history of regular premiership success. Back then we had a team we really believed in. We had never won a wooden spoon and didn't know anything other than success.

It has been a long long time since we have tasted any form of success. They younger generation of supporters, many have only ever followed a Carlton who has been mediocre at best.

The current crop of players have the opportunity for a 23 year comeback. 28 year comeback from ultimate success. They have the opportunity to to turn things around.

We are the underdogs. This game, beating Brisbane at the Gabba is probably a harder game than what the Grand final will be. This will be the biggest challenge in football this year.

Should we win this we very very likely go all the way.

We may not have finished top 4 in the H/A season but we are top 4 now which means we are more than deserving and good enough for this.

There will be hoards of young fans watching who have never seen Carlton play at this time of the year.

There are a lot of sides like Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood. Even some of the Melbourne players showed signs of taking it for granted Friday night. They play finals every second year it seems. The last 23 years for us, were starved, we have to be that little bit more hungry than most.
 
Can we beat the Lions in a contested grind? I'm not sure it's the best method up there. Hitting the scoreboard heavily with better transition to Harry, Charlie and Martin would work better imo. Moot point anyway as the MC will lean towards the contested footy model.
 
Just further to my last point-

Our last three games the backline has leaked pretty badly and has allowed scores 50 percent of the time. Can blame the midfield sure. But somewhere between the midfield and backline it needs to lift.

Hope is not a plan. Something has to change this week. Only changing two forwards for two forwards is an error.
What's the answer?
An extra runner like Hollands to help get numbers back or an extra clearance specialist like Dow to get the ball moving forward?
 
I think Voss has given up (for now) on trying to improve the speed of the backline. Instead he makes sure no one gets out the back with structure. He concedes high and wide entries rather than have Weiters sucked up the ground and risk deep entries or out the back goals.

As a result as much as I want Boyd to play he will not even be in the frame.

Yet I think letting Daniher roam on the 50 arc on his own is a disaster and so we have a big problem this week.

I think our secondary talls (Marchy and Kemp) are in erratic (at best) form and are def our biggest weakness right now. Kemp was awful on Friday night. No other word for it. His positioning was terrible. He’s not body checking his man at all. Lost his man so many times. He’s staying in but he’s a big problem right now. One that’s not solved by Marchy. Marchy and Kemp cannot cover for Weiters on Daniher uo the ground. So weiters has to stay wi the him. Which then really exposes our pace because we won’t have the goal keeper.

I felt at the ground that Doc was torched in the end to end running by Langdon. Not criticising him! I love him. Just he can’t do the training at the moment to get up to the kilometres needed for wing.

All these points make me prefer a slight change this week (to add to the obvious Kennedy, Cuners for McKay, Martin).

I want more defensive cover for our weakness (pace down back). Doc plays central defensive mid brilliantly in my view. Great at centre bounce and then plays sweeper. Organises and reads the play. Doesn’t have to run as much as he does when wing. Can press back and plug holes easier. I don’t think Hewett gets back at all well and would prefer him as sub this week.

Playing Doc on ball then gives the full game to Hollands on a wing. I don’t rate the Lions wings (Mcluggage is mostly centre forward now) and think Hollands can do well. With Cotts, Doc and Acres they really push back hard to help and then provide spread options the other way. I think Doc, Cerra and Walsh can cover their clearance exits well and apply the pressure needed on the ball carrier.

Strongly doubt all that happens but is my pref.

I think we have come to a rob peter to pay paul scenario with our backs. We are taller and a runner short. Which means we are defensively better but offensively weaker. We don't have the runners coming from behind connecting our defence with our forward line like we did have. We miss that fast, direct ball movement and connection with our forwards. But we are taller in defence over the field and from a team defence perspective that is good.

So we are probably stopping the scoring more and scoring less ourselves.

Here is what worries me. We can setup to be a fast moving attacking high scoring team which moves the ball quickly, takes the opposition on and opens the forward line up and it takes the gas out of the opposition because the running to defend that sort of play is huge. I am hoping that Michael Voss is not the modern day Ross Lyon. He appears to keep going back to defensive negative footy. Defence first. And that is not what turned our season around, it's not what got us here. We came roaring back into finals by being a quicker, more attacking more aggressive side and scoring more. Time will tell if it will work. The remaining sides are all teams willing to run from behind the footy, carry it, move it quick and go direct up the middle. We were and now we are not and IMO it has a lot to do with our half back line lacking a runner or two so we can carry more talls there and it's a bit about us missing the burst from stoppage that Dow provides.

But, we do have a harder to score against defence. So it comes down to what works better. My feel is we are a runner short in the backline and a burst mid short in the middle.

We apply extra defensive pressure but our offensive pressure has dropped off and it's not because of finals or the opposition. GWS, Brisbane the week before and Collingwood have been doing it for 2 seasons now. They all moved it quick, direct and got it in the hands of runners who carried the ball forward and applied offensive pressure.

We will need the two rucks this week. Need to have the ruck dropping back in front of Daniher or Hipwood. If one is to play up the ground then perhaps the ruck takes them and Weitering stays back in the hole. Rucks will be important in defending against their talls.

Kemp was awful, both he and Cincotta got taught a lesson. Inexperienced players making mistakes which is fine if we win and they learn from that. Think Kemp has spent a lot of time playing on taller opposition, he comes up against Smith who isn't taller but is a leaper, it's a different ball game, have to initiate body contact at all time. He should learn from this and this should, be something he takes with him for the rest of his career. Cincotta going to ground was just criminal. One of the moments Kemp lost his man was when he went to cover for Cincotta who went to ground.

The idea with Weitering, Kemp, McGovern, Marchbank is when we spread out and zone up, there is always a tall player there. It's hard to find the games where there is a miss match. Also means when we drop someone off, they are likely to be a tall marking option. If Marchbank didn't drop so many marks the other night it would have worked a lot better.

Langdon does this most weeks. He's a gut running machine. Docherty is more a footballer who is a decent athlete. Langdon is one of these elite endurance wingers. Only Hollands, Cottrell and maybe Acres are going to be able to keep up with Langdon. I like Docherty on a wing but I don't like him on the endurance beasts. This is when I would prefer we pick Hollands and play Docherty back, back/middle or middle.

I've played wing against natural footballers and endurance beasts. Unless you are an endurance beast yourselves which I am not, you spend all day chasing and never get the opportunity to hunt the footy and run both ways. Playing on a natural footballer you play an even contest and you get to run both ways. Docherty is the natural footballer type, Langdon the endurance beast. We would have been better with Hollands playing on him and Docherty playing Defence and a bit in the middle against Melbourne.

We seemed to forget we beat Melbourne earlier in the season with Brayshaw in and didn't need to rely on them kicking inaccurately for goal and we did it with Docherty and Dow in the middle generating forward run. Fisher at half back generating awesome rebound run and with Hollands playing on the wing. We played better that night than we did in the final. We had a hell of a lot more run.

I want what you want. You are right about Hewett. Hewett, Cripps and Kennedy are one way running mids. We made the mistake early this season demanding they run both ways. One of the mid season changes was giving these three a license to stay ahead of the ball unless play was exceptionally slow. Even then they often stay forward of the ball. Which makes sense, they can't run both way so if they are being asked to run defensively, there is no way they are there when we need them offensively. We can carry two of them, that's fine but we need rotations.

At the moment we are missing midfield rotations. Cuningham and Fogarty aren't great but they can hold their own long enough to rest our onballers. If we could improve our rotation mids we will improve a hell of a lot.

It's clear we are pushing Cerra too hard at the moment. He's a better player when he gets to rotate.

I think you and I are somewhat on the same page with what we need.

How about we drop a defender out, Marchbank or Cincotta and send Docherty back? Docherty plays back and on the ball. Bring Hollands in to play wing. Drop out Kennedy and another forward for Martin and McKay. Play Dow as the sub, comes in half way so we have fresh legs and run in the middle for the second half.

Newman Weitering Marchbank
Saad McGovern Docherty
Acres Cripps Hollands
Motlop Martin Cuningham
Owies Curnow McKay
Pittonet Walsh Cerra
Kemp Hewett Cottrell DeKoning
Dow

I think that works. That team has more run from behind the play. Faster forward line, extra tall marking target up forward, faster more enduring winger. Docherty and Cuningham to provide the onball rotations. Dow comes on at half time and does what he does best. Clearances and forward running. All the things we lacked last week.

Think up there it can be hotter and more humid. Another endurance runner, better onball rotations and a running onballer to come in mid way through will take us a long way to running out this game.
 
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Fog had 14 touches, 4 tackles, 4 clangers, 0.1 score
Kennedy 13, 3 tackles, 2 clangers, 1.2 score.
Both had 14 pressure acts
1 is a “lock” & crucial part of our success so far, the other is out as is ineffectual & failed experiment 🤨

Kennedy is an upgrade on Fog, very similar pace, Fog will give u an extra tackle, Kennedy is a much stronger mark, great set shot, stronger occasional chop out & most importantly against
Brisbane - can work a little higher & take a contested mark @ HF/Centre square & then hit a flat/hard lace out 50m pass to the open side of the ground.
With Mots, Owies, Martin, Harry & Charlie that 2 small, 2 mid, 2 tall with Owies/Kennedy/Martin all very reliable set shot & everyone brings defensive pressure (that’s a given these days- not an exclusive trait of a few players)
 
I desperately want Ollie Hollands to get a start in this game. With a few players somewhat cooked, his run and smarts would be critical. All of Acres, Doc and Cotts are playing so, unfortunately, unlikely he gets a start.

Harry and Jacky Martin must come in. Unfortunately that puts Kennedy out of the 22. The lesser performing/most cooked forward after that is Cuners, so he is the likely out.

A couple of defenders were a bit shaky, but almost no chance Vossy changes that mix.

Dutchy’s run offers more in late game than Chugga or DC (or Dow HF😜) so I have him (at least) sub. With Doc and Acres clearly carrying injuries, provides cover for both as well.
Cotters can play permanent HFF (with the license to run as far as he likes), or even chop out with Acres &/or Doc rolling through.
 
I think we have come to a rob peter to pay paul scenario with our backs. We are taller and a runner short. Which means we are defensively better but offensively weaker. We don't have the runners coming from behind connecting our defence with our forward line like we did have. We miss that fast, direct ball movement and connection with our forwards. But we are taller in defence over the field and from a team defence perspective that is good.

So we are probably stopping the scoring more and scoring less ourselves.

Here is what worries me. We can setup to be a fast moving attacking high scoring team which moves the ball quickly, takes the opposition on and opens the forward line up and it takes the gas out of the opposition because the running to defend that sort of play is huge. I am hoping that Michael Voss is not the modern day Ross Lyon. He appears to keep going back to defensive negative footy. Defence first. And that is not what turned our season around, it's not what got us here. We came roaring back into finals by being a quicker, more attacking more aggressive side and scoring more. Time will tell if it will work. The remaining sides are all teams willing to run from behind the footy, carry it, move it quick and go direct up the middle. We were and now we are not and IMO it has a lot to do with our half back line lacking a runner or two so we can carry more talls there and it's a bit about us missing the burst from stoppage that Dow provides.

But, we do have a harder to score against defence. So it comes down to what works better. My feel is we are a runner short in the backline and a burst mid short in the middle.

We apply extra defensive pressure but our offensive pressure has dropped off and it's not because of finals or the opposition. GWS, Brisbane the week before and Collingwood have been doing it for 2 seasons now. They all moved it quick, direct and got it in the hands of runners who carried the ball forward and applied offensive pressure.

We will need the two rucks this week. Need to have the ruck dropping back in front of Daniher or Hipwood. If one is to play up the ground then perhaps the ruck takes them and Weitering stays back in the hole. Rucks will be important in defending against their talls.

Kemp was awful, both he and Cincotta got taught a lesson. Inexperienced players making mistakes which is fine if we win and they learn from that. Think Kemp has spent a lot of time playing on taller opposition, he comes up against Smith who isn't taller but is a leaper, it's a different ball game, have to initiate body contact at all time. He should learn from this and this should, be something he takes with him for the rest of his career. Cincotta going to ground was just criminal. One of the moments Kemp lost his man was when he went to cover for Cincotta who went to ground.

The idea with Weitering, Kemp, McGovern, Marchbank is when we spread out and zone up, there is always a tall player there. It's hard to find the games where there is a miss match. Also means when we drop someone off, they are likely to be a tall marking option. If Marchbank didn't drop so many marks the other night it would have worked a lot better.

Langdon does this most weeks. He's a gut running machine. Docherty is more a footballer who is a decent athlete. Only Hollands, Cottrell and maybe Acres are going to be able to keep up with Langdon. I like Docherty on a wing but I don't like him on the endurance beasts. This is when I would prefer we pick Hollands and play Docherty back, back/middle or middle.

I want what you want. You are right about Hewett. Hewett, Cripps and Kennedy are one way running mids. We made the mistake early this season demanding they run both ways. One of the mid season changes was giving these three a license to stay ahead of the ball unless play was exceptionally slow. Even then they often stay forward of the ball. Which makes sense, they can't run both way so if they are being asked to run defensively, there is no way they are there when we need them offensively. We can carry two of them, that's fine but we need rotations.

At the moment we are missing midfield rotations. Cuningham and Fogarty aren't great but they can hold their own long enough to rest our onballers. If we could improve our rotation mids we will improve a hell of a lot.

It's clear we are pushing Cerra too hard at the moment. He's a better player when he gets to rotate.

I think you and I are somewhat on the same page with what we need.

How about we drop a defender out, Marchbank or Cincotta and send Docherty back? Docherty plays back and on the ball. Bring Hollands in to play wing. Drop out Kennedy and another forward for Martin and McKay. Play Dow as the sub, comes in half way so we have fresh legs and run in the middle for the second half.

Newman Weitering Marchbank
Saad McGovern Docherty
Acres Cripps Hollands
Motlop Martin Cuningham
Owies Curnow McKay
Pittonet Walsh Cerra
Kemp Hewett Cottrell DeKoning
Dow

I think that works. That team has more run from behind the play. Faster forward line, extra tall marking target up forward, faster more enduring winger. Docherty and Cuningham to provide the onball rotations. Dow comes on at half time and does what he does best. Clearances and forward running. All the things we lacked last week.

Think up there it can be hotter and more humid. Another endurance runner, better onball rotations and a running onballer to come in mid way through will take us a long way to running out this game.
Brisbane defensive set up is very very good for a rushed or sideways kick - there was an amazing clip of them doing it against us last time - it’s pretty much a guaranteed score for them.
You can absolutely punish them if the outlet is a quick/smart runner receiving hands- taking 15m and hitting a 45-50 pass to a hard working wing (who’s held shape) & we have a few of those .
You blow straight over/through the press if you’re willing to take the game on & you’re off to the races.
Kennedy is a brilliant option (ridiculously strong over head & gives no ****s about sitting under the ball & the pressure coming at him) around centre/HF & a penetrating kick to hit up a forward working back.
We can carve them up if we look for it & brave enough to hit the outlet & the one back to the corridor.
 
Fog had 14 touches, 4 tackles, 4 clangers, 0.1 score
Kennedy 13, 3 tackles, 2 clangers, 1.2 score.
Both had 14 pressure acts
1 is a “lock” & crucial part of our success so far, the other is out as is ineffectual & failed experiment 🤨

Kennedy is an upgrade on Fog, very similar pace, Fog will give u an extra tackle, Kennedy is a much stronger mark, great set shot, stronger occasional chop out & most importantly against
Brisbane - can work a little higher & take a contested mark @ HF/Centre square & then hit a flat/hard lace out 50m pass to the open side of the ground.
With Mots, Owies, Martin, Harry & Charlie that 2 small, 2 mid, 2 tall with Owies/Kennedy/Martin all very reliable set shot & everyone brings defensive pressure (that’s a given these days- not an exclusive trait of a few players)
Fogarty a little quicker, much better agility and does have those 8-7 tackle games which Kennedy isn't going to.
Kennedy a far better skilled player, far better kick, will have a bigger impact going into the middle as well.

You make a good argument. Definitely worth discussing.

My gut feeling is neither play. But it's hard as Fogarty appears entrenched in our plans.
 
If one was of a conspiratorial mindset, you would say the fix is in. Us getting 8 days rest and the giants 6 is plain crazy. Its a huge boost to firstly the pies, and second to us. Not that im complaining…
Isn't the fix actually about how high our opponent's finished on the ladder? Same as every year.
 
If one was of a conspiratorial mindset, you would say the fix is in. Us getting 8 days rest and the giants 6 is plain crazy. Its a huge boost to firstly the pies, and second to us. Not that im complaining…
If u don the tin foil hat, we could also have some very favorable umpiring decisions coming our way.

Pies/Blues GF is an AFL wet dream, GWS/Lions an unmitigated disaster.

We are unquestionably the biggest clubs in the land with the most passionate fans.
Merch/Corporate packages, column inches & clicks would go through the roof.

It would be an event like we have never seen before - the exposure would even reach to an international level & would be massive, the sponsors & subsequent viewing/streaming uptick is huge.

Not that the AFL cares about any of that 😉
 
In: McKay, Martin, Hollands
Out: Kennedy, Cuningham, Marchbank/Kemp
Sub: Dow

Glad Bam Bam found a way to contribute eventually, but Lever didn't respect him as a forward, which Harry will command.

Cuningham was the one subbed out. Think he's class when the ball gets to him, but doesn't get it enough to warrant retaining a non-scoring forward ahead of the other non-talls.

People talk about how we can't unsettle the backline, but for most of the streak, it was with three designated talls, not four. That leaves either Kemp or Marchbank to make way. Kemp did a poor job on Smith, and Marchbank dropped his marks and made terrible decisions with ball in hand (wasn't the only one).

With Boyd on the outer, I'd shift Docherty back and let Hollands take his place in the wing rotation.
 
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