Preview 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Sat 23rd Sept 5.15PM @ Gabba

[Aphrodite]

TEAM IS IN …


IN: Jordan Boyd, Jack Martin

19

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

, Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

27

Ht

200cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

OUT: David Cuningham, Brodie Kemp, Matthew Kennedy, Matthew Owies

AFL team selection: Four changes for preliminary final

Carlton has named its team for the preliminary final.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Alex Cincotta	Jacob Weitering	Adam Saad
Half-backs:	Caleb Marchbank	Mitch McGovern	Nic Newman
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Ollie Hollands
Half-forwards:	Tom De Koning	Harry McKay	Sam Docherty
Forwards:	Lachie Fogarty	Charlie Curnow	Jesse Motlop
Followers:	Marc Pittonet	Adam Cerra	Sam Walsh
Interchange:	Jordan Boyd	Matthew Cottrell	George Hewett
	Jack Martin
Emergencies:	David Cuningham	Brodie Kemp	Matthew Kennedy
	Matthew Owies

 

[ParapMarkets]

Don’t want to start anything here but I’m pretty sure Voss said in one of the press interviews he had no idea how Acres & Gov ended up down there, but was very happy they did!

Gov was following Fritsch (who dropped deep for extra cover) & Acres was coming off the ground (after being crunched running back with the flight just before) and then doubled back to the forward line.

Smart players, doing smart things

I’m not saying it is the case, but Voss saying this could also be a case of not wanting to give too much away regarding strategy when we are a straight kick from the lead in the dying minutes. Kemp had also wandered forward

 

[Recon_29]

From what I can gather via this forum and socials it looks like we have carlton members in these bays. I have seen posts saying we got allocated 10,000 tickets. Any other sections out there not circled?

 

[bigblueboy]

This has been a crazy week for team selections lol

Can't tell if Boyd is a surprise in for a tall, or just the Cincotta replacement

Think we are more likely to select defenders to match Brisbane's dangerous smalls.
Boyd to replace a tall ... Kemp struggled last week.
Fisher might be a chance if Cincotta is out. It's a worry if Fisher has to play down back.
Cunners v Owies is a 50/50 based on most recent form - they bring different attributes despite both being pegged as small forwards.

 

[Manhattanite]

I don't see this drop in form that others do

Back half of the season we won close games against other finalists in Demons, Pies, Saints

Won 2 close finals, 1 of which we lead from the 1st qtr, the other coming from behind twice in the last

You don't get your own way against strong sides, especially in finals

I would also add that we clearly made a few poor mistakes that led to Swans goals and in reality we were a 5 goal better team - and Melbourne was arguably the best team in 2023 so it took a lot to eliminate them and it should be easier to beat the Lions, Pies and Giants in comparison particularly now with McKay and Martin back in

But also the Swans over-perform in Finals in the same way that Brisbane and in particular Port under-perform in Finals - the Swans and their coach knows how to play the best they possibly can and get the best out of them




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[carlton_99]

Owies. Cincotta out

Boyd. Martin. Mackay in.

That leaves us with 24 players so has to be one more out and another made the sub

 

[4thchicken]

I don't see this drop in form that others do

Back half of the season we won close games against other finalists in Demons, Pies, Saints

Won 2 close finals, 1 of which we lead from the 1st qtr, the other coming from behind twice in the last

You don't get your own way against strong sides, especially in finals

Not necessarily a drop off in form but imo we've dropped away from stoppage dominance - whether that is form, shifts in game style, personnel changes/injury, or just the teams we've been up against is hard to say - probably a combination of all 3.

Is it disastrous? - probably not as other areas have been ok and as you say, you don't get your own way against strong sides - for myself though, the identity of the team over past few years has been our ability to monster teams from stoppages/CC - would love to see that re-emerge over the next couple of weeks.

My preferred changes this week would be on bringing in SOSOS over pittonet, strengthening midfield (hollands/dow), and of course the forward line (Mckay/Martin). Certainly acknowledge 5 changes would be unrealistic though (and very difficult to leave out 5!)

 

[HarryFlashman]

Message that Marchbank Cincotta are sore and may be a late test if selected

I would think if there’s even a chance of Marchbank being iffy they would draw a line straight through him.
Nothing to do with form/ability, just his history of breaking down - we can’t have that come game day.
Probably a little harsh but we can’t carry him, when he breaks he stops.
I appreciate that Crippa/Doc/Acres are injured too but they are upper body, Marchy I’m assuming is knee/calf etc

 

[gbatman]

Reasons we win

- We have won 10 out of our last 11 games. That includes wins over top 4 teams Melbourne (twice), Collingwood and Port Adelaide. It's fair to say we are the form team in the competition.

- Our list is fit. We have forever been a team of excuses due to injury. All of a sudden the only player who could possibly be best 22 who isn't available for selection is Zac Williams.

- We can beat them at their own game. Brisbane are a tough contested team and at our best we are one of the best. If you match or beat a team at one of their main strengths then you take the bullets out of their gun. And that's how you beat good sides.

- We are match fit. We are coming off two highly contested and competitive games. One think I hated when I was fit and young and playing well was a week off. Nothing worse. Lions have played 1 game in three weeks. Could we jump them?

- We are good enough. There is no doubt that we are good enough. We can beat anyone anywhere on our day if we pick the right team and play well. We are a good enough team to beat anyone, we have to beat two more teams.

- Luck. If you believe in these things then perhaps we have been saving our luck for the last 23 years. Just waiting for the right moment. Luck has played a huge part in getting here, it could play a part in another win.

- Our defence. It's been a rock for the second half of the year. It's what kept us in both finals, as our midfield was getting beaten, our defence proved it could stop scoring. We are an odd size in defence, we can intercept pretty well, we may prove a problem if we start taking a lot of marks against them.

- Two good tall forward. There aren't many sides who run two tall forwards well. We are on Brisbane is another. I think we will keep their defence honest.

- A giant is awakening. Perhaps all we needed was two tough games, a bit of luck to win them and we get back on our feet. Walsh and Cripps woke up last week. Cerra and McKay could wake up this week. We haven't been firing on all cylinders. Perhaps this is the game everyone clicks and plays well. We have had a few games this season where every player has played really well. This could be our moment, it's setup to be.

- This feels a little bit like '99. Yeah we have come from the dumps, we finished the season well to get into finals, we have played ok, got the job done and got here. Everyone is expecting the the quality of opposition and the challenge is now too great and this is the end of the road for us. It doesn't have the big rivalry 1999 had nor the jabs from our president over past incidents but it has all the rest. A different kind of history behind it that brings about the same feeling. Deep down you would feel that Vossy may have something to prove. Knock out his old side who sacked him. More to the point we as a club have a lot to prove, for where we have been and where we have come from this means everything. There is a difference between getting a Carlton into a grand final and a Sydney or a Geelong. This has to mean more to everyone for where we have come from. No one expects us to win this, and that can be a big reason we will.

- While the Lions are really good, 2nd on the ladder, they have shown weakness. In their last two months of footy they only got home against St Kilda by 2 goals, only beat Adelaide by 1 goal, beat Freo by 3 points, Beat Geelong by 11 points, Lost to the suns by 43 points and lost to Melbourne by 1.

- A big heavy physical side may not have been ideal against Melbourne and Sydney but could be ideal for Collingwood and Brisbane? Perhaps this has been our plan all along. Build a team to beat the top 2 and hope we can get there with that team. Perhaps this is where we are coming from. This is a similar team that beat Collingwood.

- We are hungry. 10 years out of finals, most haven't played finals, we are close to the big one, what's another two wins in a row? 23 years in the wilderness as a club. Last year's heartbreaking finish. Playing at a club which clearly measures success in premierships and nothing else. Make no mistake, we are hungry.

- Injuries. Payne is a big out and not one you want to be playing hurt. Ashcroft, Gunston. They would probably want them playing and not being under injury concerne.

Reasons we lose

- We have had a lot of luck and we have come this far on luck. It's fair to say we should have lost both our finals. 11.8 to 19.14 and 9.17 to 11.7 it's fair to say that we were gifted both these wins by opposition who outplayed us but couldn't finish their work off. Brisbane kicked 19.9 in their last match so it's only natural to assume that we will not be gifted the opportunity to win again from poor kicking from the opposition. You could fairly argue we are lucky to be there.

- Winning the last two games has glossed over some major deficiency in our sides. While they were wins it wasn't because we out played the opposition, it was because the opposition made mistakes. While our defencive aspects have been excellent, our old problem of ball movement issues has reared its ugly head. The ball movement that helped turn our season around has hardly been seen this finals series. A lot of which was generated by fast runners and elite kicks at half back as well as forward run from stoppages. With Dow playing no part and Saad our only recognised runner at half back there is no doubt we have missed these aspects of the game. When we were carrying the footy, going up the middle and switching play a lot the opposition struggled to keep up with us and we burnt teams out. We moved it quickly, beat the zone and went into an open forward line a lot where we scored heavily. We haven't done that this finals series. I'm worried our obsession with contested footy has killed our run and carry and ball movement. I've been saying it all season. The game is more outside than it has been in years. It's less contested and more about speed. Teams who have embraced leg speed to run the ball and run down the man and apply pressure have done well all season and Brisbane, GWS and Collingwood, the remaining sides are teams who have this finals series demonstrated that this game can be played in finals. I have some major doubts over our team structure/selection. Our tactics and team selection IMO do not include enough leg speed run and carry for modern football IMO. They did, through our whole winning streak but currently they do not. In the middle Walsh is generating enough run and carry but Cerra hasn't. But that can change. Fisher and Boyd have been massive in our streak at generating fast play but have been replaced with a medium/tall. Dow has been dropped, a player who was massive with run and carry in the middle, Cerra hasn't come back with a run and carry game and has looked gassed a lot of the time. Running forward with the ball is important because if you can run it quickly and kick it long it's more than likely going to go over the zone and into space where our forwards can get one on one in space and kick goals. This also makes the opposition run extra hard defensively, which slows them up and burns them out if you keep playing this way. Again, I think not enough run in defence, not backing Hollands, Not backing Fisher/Boyd and not using Dow has been a mistake we have gotten away with.

Long story short, is our leg speed and our ball movement going to be good enough to put them under real offensive pressure? Are we going to be able to kick a good enough score, run them out of steam by moving the ball quickly and have the closing speed to apply elite pressure on them? Or is our bigger, heavier side the side that is setup to beat them?

- Brisbane at the GABBA have appeared unbeatable. Haven't lose there all season. A good side with a dedicated home ground is always a greater challenge as we have seen with Geelong for years. This is a huge challenge.

- Our record against the Lions is really poor. 26, 33, 18, 17 are our margins in the last 4 games against them. All losing. You have to go back to 2019 when we won by 15 points ar Marvel to find our last win against them.

- Are the Lions fresher? We are coming off two hard games and have a number of players playing with injuries. Not uncommon, especially in finals, but are the Lions fitter and fresher?

- They can beat us at our own game. If they beat us out of the middle and out of contests, we probably have the defence to hold them off but we don't have the rebound, leg speed and ball movement to play rebound footy and beat them that way. We pretty much have to beat them in the contests or we lose IMO. I think we could beat them here but lets not get ahead of ourselves, they are elite in the contested and clearance game, easier said than done.

- Two tall forwards V 1 tall defender and a group of medium/tall defenders. Not sure how this will go, keep the ball on the ground and we will do ok but Hipwood to me feels like a threat. Whoever plays on him is going to have to be good and is going to have to have a little help.

- The Lions are a genuinely good side. They finished 2nd, they earn the right to be one of the real premiership contenders. Forget the home ground and all of that, they are the real deal and genuinely a very good side. Their thrashing of Port Adelaide suggests they have some form and are hungry for finals.

- After a few failed finals campaigns, they will feel they have their shit together. One home win away from a grand final. The Lions would have to be hungry for this. They haven't tasted a premiership yet, they have had their own disappointment.

- Injuries. Acres and Docherty playing hurt. Yeah, better than them missing. But you'd love them to be 100%. We'd probably want Williams out there too but haven't had him all season. How match fit is McKay? Did I hear Owies, Marchbank and Cincotta are sore?

 

[Soapy V]

My call

B: Boyd Weitering McGovern
HB: Newman Kemp Saad
C: Acres Cripps Hollands
HF: Cottrell McKay Docherty
F: Martin Charlie Fogarty
Foll: TDK Hewett Walsh
Int: Cerra Pittonet Motlop Cincotta/Marchbank (Dow or Owies)

I just feel there will be some changes. Bloody good side that can win

 

[HarryFlashman]

I’m not saying it is the case, but Voss saying this could also be a case of not wanting to give too much away regarding strategy when we are a straight kick from the lead in the dying minutes. Kemp had also wandered forward

Don’t disagree with that - it’s a little more “hear hoof beats think it’s a Zebra”
Where as I think “Horse” -I don’t doubt that the players were likely under instruction to follow there man - so as not to allow a loose (why Gov was there) & Acres gravitates towards goal lines (& was screamed at from the bench to run forward)

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Don’t want to start anything here but I’m pretty sure Voss said in one of the press interviews he had no idea how Acres & Gov ended up down there, but was very happy they did!

Gov was following Fritsch (who dropped deep for extra cover) & Acres was coming off the ground (after being crunched running back with the flight just before) and then doubled back to the forward line.

Smart players, doing smart things

I think Voss is pulling your leg on Acres, he was coming off the ground until told by someone to stay on and go deep after he was smashed…Voss was on the bench, could only have been him


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[YamandU]

That leaves us with 24 players so has to be one more out and another made the sub

That’s what will be named this arvo apparently

 

[Aphrodite]

Owies. Cincotta out

Boyd. Martin. Mackay in.

That’s what will be named this arvo apparently

Where is that coming from?

 

[teagueyubeauty]

From what I can gather via this forum and socials it looks like we have carlton members in these bays. I have seen posts saying we got allocated 10,000 tickets. Any other sections out there not circled?


View attachment 1809434

Yep, four of us in 207


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Coops93]

I'm not sure it will matter so much or not but thought it may be worth pointing out

It's a scorcher up here today. 33 degrees if not more. Either the Brisbane fellas do a normal training regime and will get cooked or they'll keep it light due to the heat and maybe haven't had a solid session going into the game.

I recall seeing mention of them keeping it light but not 100% sure. Wonder if it could be a little 3 or 4%er our way if there touch is just off a tad more after bye

 

[BIuebagger]

Nerves kicking in a little more just now. I’m gonna be a nervous wreck on Saturday night. Even doing the ballot was surreal in itself!!!

 

[JustaBattler]

Kemp was 15 meters away from the Acres goal as well - the moids kept between the arcs shape, and the mobile tall backs ran forward hard..haven't seen it before Kemp being there along with McGovern means (to me) - another lucky 'accident' - this play was just like getting Charelie back to defend in the last two minutes and Martin ...they are match sim trained 'plays'

anyway no biggie if these never seen before things are made up by players on the go and they win 'lucky' games for us - good.

 

[Matty411]

Gee Matty Owies and Cinc are still - anyone is if they're omitted.

INs are obvious, but outs less so.

If Cinc and Owies go, does that mean Cuners survives? What happens with Ollie?

Either way - who cares! Back in the 23, and give it our best shake.

 

[gbatman]

This has been a crazy week for team selections lol

Can't tell if Boyd is a surprise in for a tall, or just the Cincotta replacement

We have definitely lacked some run, carry and precision kicking from defence. Boyd brings that. Before his suspension he was one of my favorites. Tough as nails, quick, hits hard targets, defends well one on one, competes fiercely and was taking some nice intercept marks. Think he comes in for Cincotta and is possibly even an upgrade. Lots of faith in Boyd.

If Owies misses then it's for Martin, that's ok.

Think Hollands will stay in and Docherty will go back to defence, but not as a permanent defender, probably as a back pocket who spends time at half back and goes into the middle as well.

Docherty Weitering Kemp
Boyd McGovern Saad
Acres Cripps Hollands
Cottrell Martin Cuningham
McKay Curnow Motlop
Pittonet Cerra Walsh
Newman Hewett Fogarty DeKoning
Dow

This is if we want a bit more run in defence and a better quality onball rotation and Cincotta, Marchbank and Owies aren't getting up for this one.
Dow as the tactical sub. Been probably the best sub in the league all season, not just Carlton.
Docherty back pocket spending time at half back and in the centre.
Hollands to remain on a wing.
Cuningham and Fogarty to still get some midfield minutes. We need to rest the boys in there a bit more.

This is if rumors of Boyd coming in and Marchbank, Cincotta and Owies missing are true.

Effectively Boyd for Cincotta, Docherty for Marchbank, Martin for Owies and McKay for Kennedy and a sub we can genuinely use tactically who when he has come on as sub has always done damage.

Just on Dow. If Walsh or Cerra pings a hammy which has happened a few times this year. He's super important. No Dow as sub, if we lose any of those midfielders we aren't getting home so IMO he has to be Sub. Reckon Dow as sub. We lose a forward we can get through with a mid resting there. Lose a defender we will get through with 6, maybe Cuningham goes back. Lose one of our mids and Dow isn't sub then Docherty has to go in there full time.

We are going to have to go up there and run this game out really well.

 

[BIuebagger]

Hope Cinc gets up and is fit enough. Keeping trust Boyd can do the job if he comes in. Has the attributes, just Cinc with the bigger body.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

I think that's overstating it.
Only managed 5 touches against the Swans, and he was pretty poor against the Dees.
A good goal, but only 4 effective disposals and 6 clangers.

Agree - stiff in that he's been in the side most of the year but he's just not getting enough of the ball.

 

[Arr0w]

Think Cincotta plays

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Message that Marchbank Cincotta are sore and may be a late test if selected

Wasn't Marchbank a test last week too? There was vision of him being tested as part of the Jsos story.

 

[HarryFlashman]

We have definitely lacked some run, carry and precision kicking from defence. Boyd brings that. Before his suspension he was one of my favorites. Tough as nails, quick, hits hard targets, defends well one on one, competes fiercely and was taking some nice intercept marks. Think he comes in for Cincotta and is possibly even an upgrade. Lots of faith in Boyd.

If Owies misses then it's for Martin, that's ok.

Think Hollands will stay in and Docherty will go back to defence, but not as a permanent defender, probably as a back pocket who spends time at half back and goes into the middle as well.

Docherty Weitering Kemp
Boyd McGovern Saad
Acres Cripps Hollands
Cottrell Martin Cuningham
McKay Curnow Motlop
Pittonet Cerra Walsh
Newman Hewett Fogarty DeKoning
Dow

This is we want a bit more run in defence and a better quality onball rotation and Cincotta, Marchbank and Owies aren't getting up for this one.
Dow as the tactical sub. Been probably the best sub in the league all season, not just Carlton.
Docherty back pocket spending time at half back and in the centre.
Hollands to remain on a wing.
Cuningham and Fogarty to still get some midfield minutes. We need to rest the boys in there a bit more.

This is if rumors of Boyd coming in and Marchbank, Cincotta and Owies missing are true.

Effectively Boyd for Cincotta, Docherty for Marchbank, Martin for Owies and McKay for Kennedy and a sub we can genuinely use tactically who when he has come on as sub has always done damage.

Just on Dow. If Walsh or Cerra pings a hammy which has happened a few times this year. He's super important. No Dow as sub, if we lose any of those midfielders we aren't getting home so IMO he has to be Sub.

We are going to have to go up there and run this game out really well.

When the chips are down & u need to score, there’s a lot to be said for having the leading centre clearance player come on & win a clearance to the best tall forward combo in the league.
Give them a chance one out & they will deliver.
Go back to the centre & do it again & you’re back in it.

We’ve proven we only need a sniff to start charging back but u need the ball to do that.

 

[JoeyPBLUES]

Like Skinny’s take here.

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