Prediction 2024 - Best 23 + Emergencies - Rolling

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I'm hoping Kemp can do a Brett Ratten of sorts, and become an inside mid, but with some breakaway pace/sidestep.
 
B: Boyd, Weitering, Crozier
HB: McGovern, Marchbank, Saad
C: Hollands, Kennedy, Acres
HF: Martin, McKay, Williams
F: Motlop, Curnow, Silvagni
Foll: De Koning, Cerra, Walsh

Int: Cripps, Docherty, Hewett, Kemp

Sub: Cottrell

Emer: S Durdin, Newman, Pittonet, Cincotta


My big move is Williams to the half forward line to add more pace and the ability to lower the eyes and spot up short targets inside 50. I'm going with the rumour mill and adding the experienced Crozier who can rebound with pace and who can take a mark. I like having the run of Boyd, Crozier and Saad in our defence.

I'm not satisfied with either Marchbank or Kemp taking a key defensive post and if and when we can get a 200cm KPD ready to walk into the side, I'm all over it. Marchbank gets it for now as the more experienced player and Kemp can be the bench utility.

I'm backing Hollands in as our full time winger opposite Acres. I'd prefer our elder statesmen in Cripps and Docherty to be part of the midfield rotation but coming in when the game slows down a little to do their damage.

I have backed in the TDK/Silvagni ruck combo for now. Both can rest forward and if Silvagni is an 80/20 forward/ruck split, he will do damage up forward and create goals for the smalls. McKay should do the forward ruckwork to give TDK more of a break.

S Durdin is an emergency call up for an injured KPD and perhaps a horses for courses selection when the opposition have a dangerous giant forward.

I know Newman will get a walk up start next year but this is my team. I want the pace and the ability to play tall in my backline. I think our balance is wrong. No more playing medium defenders who lack a yard on speedy opposition small forwards. He's still a good, experienced player and he may well win our B&F this year, so no need to argue the point. I get it, but I'm all about balance.

The rest all have more to prove and I hope they do.
 

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Boyd. Weitering. Saad.
Williams. McGovern. Marchbank.
O Hollands. Cripps. Acres.
Martin. Harry. Cuningham.
Motlop. Charlie. Kennedy.
R. TDK. Walsh. Cerra.
I. Docherty. Newman. Hewett. JSOS.

E. Cottrell. Kemp. Cowan. Pittonett.

Others: Cincotta, Owies, Fogarty, C Durdin, Carroll, Philp, S Durdin

Untried: Lemmey, Binns, O’Keeffe and 2 x Irishmen



Based on current list with Ed and Plowman retired and assumes Fisher and Dow take opportunities elsewhere

TDK to ruck with JSOS to chop out.

Can’t see us retaining Honey, Mirkov, Akuie

To be shopped / traded: Young and L’Ob (yes I know both are contracted).

Backing in C Durdin, Carroll and Philp (Durdin seems to be the 4th in line for small forward after Motlop, Cuningham/Fogarty and Owies, I am guessing he trains with the midfield group, Philp has pace which is one thing we most need but has to get continuity - let’s say next year’s Marchbank - and Carroll as midfield depth).
 
Boyd. Weitering. Saad.
Williams. McGovern. Marchbank.
O Hollands. Cripps. Acres.
Martin. Harry. Cuningham.
Motlop. Charlie. Kennedy.
R. TDK. Walsh. Cerra.
I. Docherty. Newman. Hewett. JSOS.

E. Cottrell. Kemp. Cowan. Pittonett.

Others: Cincotta, Owies, Fogarty, C Durdin, Carroll, Philp, S Durdin

Untried: Lemmey, Binns, O’Keeffe and 2 x Irishmen



Based on current list with Ed and Plowman retired and assumes Fisher and Dow take opportunities elsewhere

TDK to ruck with JSOS to chop out.

Can’t see us retaining Honey, Mirkov, Akuie

To be shopped / traded: Young and L’Ob (yes I know both are contracted).

Backing in C Durdin, Carroll and Philp (Durdin seems to be the 4th in line for small forward after Motlop, Cuningham/Fogarty and Owies, I am guessing he trains with the midfield group, Philp has pace which is one thing we most need but has to get continuity - let’s say next year’s Marchbank - and Carroll as midfield depth).
Akuei was given an extension earlier this year, he will be retained as a Cat-B list rookie. Mirkov also has a 2024 contract, though potentially that could be paid out - I think they'll hold on to him though, see how he goes over the pre-season after his op.
 
Backline
The main thing in our Backline is to keep the intercept power and athleticism but to also improve our two way run, carry and rebounding power which was sorely lacking in finals. That's how we get our forward line really humming. Fixing our ball movement, our connection between our defence and our forwards. This is the first step to becoming less reliant on contested ball and clearances.

Weitering and Marchbank as key talls. McGovern as the athletic smart third tall and three running defenders who can run hard at half back, and have a rest in the back pocket when needed. Newman being a hybrid type. That structure works and should work well for us.

B: Boyd Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
IC: Newman

Depth Kemp, Cowan, Docherty, Cincotta, Fisher, Young, Durdin

Our backline depth is a little frail if Fisher goes and Docherty is not in the defensive plans. Quality running defenders, 20+possessions of fast two way run and good kicking could be gone in the blink of an eye with an injury or two. We will need Cowan and Cincotta to step up their games to a new level and/or Fisher to stay to keep our run up to top 4 standards. Williams back is a huge bonus. Boydy will no doubt get suspended at times. But that there is a good backline, the issue is depth, who can we bring in to play at a high level off half back when we lose players? We have the lower level and medium level options so we are just ok there.

Midfield

C:
Acres Cripps Hollands
OB: DeKoning Walsh Cerra
IC: Silvagni Hewett Docherty

Depth: Kennedy, Binns, Carroll, O'Keefe, Pittonet, Dow

Our starting midfield is really good. Strong wings and onball group. Where things drop away is on the bench and even further in the depth department are change mids and in the reserves. Depth is an issue. The midfield is borderline for lack of leg speed, agility and two way run. We keep swaying to the wrong side of the border in those departments.

Cripps, Hewett and Kennedy are one way runners who lack agility and pace. They bring a strong inside game but having too many in the side exposes our defence and leaves us vulnerable to sides who are quicker on the outside and more agile on the inside. Mid season we dropped one of these 3 out and gave the remaining 2 the license to one way run. Worked well while we were winning clearance and rebounding from defence well, particularly with Kennedy who is strong forward of the ball but it doesn't hold up too well against the really strong midfield's of the game.

In an ideal team structure Cripps would be the only slow immobile mid. We would surround him with lower set, quicker, two way runners with Cerra being the other big bodied mid. We don't have the quality of depth to do that currently. We also lack a forward who is good enough to go into the middle for long durations and have an impact. What Rayner did to us when he went into the middle in that prelim is what I am talking about. Cuningham and Fogarty have allowed our mids to rest which has improved the team but have been low to medium impact.

Binns is a player who will likely spend some time developing on the ball in the VFL. A lower set ball magnet with nice leg speed, good tackler and good agility could be the answer. Dow likely goes but in his short time offered both pace and agility which must be priority 1 when it comes to fixing things in there. Carroll probably develops more into a Cerra type mid which is ok. One thing is for sure our onball group needs a tune up from the bottom end. A little more two way run, leg speed, run and carry from stoppage and agility in there would improve us significantly.

The type of player we need is not necessarily fast in the open but has the agility to sidestep into another universe so to speak. Elite agility. Lachie Neale, Greg Williams, Sam Mitchell etc. Fast in close. That is what we lack from our onball group badly. I keep bringing Dow up because he has that and leg speed as well which would also be very good for us. But the coach has kept him out of our plans. I think Binns is a wait and see here, he may not be ready yet but could be a solution down the track. Thing is we need to strike now.

Either way our bottom end of our onball group is weak and it lacks depth. Best 22 we compete with most sides but this is an area of improvement for us.

I think Docherty has to become a part of our onball unit. Two way runner with some leg speed and a great tackler. He has to be in there.

We need to up our rotations. Cerra is a mid who needs to rotate. He has to be a two way runner in that team. He is not an elite endurance player player like Walsh and our wingers. He does hamstrings. It's better to keep him fresh so his impact is high. We need to look after him more with stints forward. He did this at Freo, he's quite a good forward.

Forward

HF: Martin McKay Cuningham/Cottrell
F: Owies Curnow Motlop

Depth: Fogarty, Durdin, Lemmy, Cottrell

The forward line is ok. Two Coleman medalists. The smalls work well when the ball comes down quick. This forward line has proven with good ball movement it kicks goals against all quality of teams. Motlop needs to get fitter. It lacks a player who can genuinely go into the middle and have an impact. I'd like to see Durdin develop into a forward mid. He's that quick lower set player we could do with in there and he does find the footy when he's on the ball.

I don't think our forward line is a huge problem. I think the talent is there. I think the ball movement is the problem. Asking forwards to kick goals against the oppositions press is too much. We simply do not get the ball past the press enough and go inside 50 with space to work in enough. That starts down the back and in the middle with run and carry and come finals we were not good enough at these things to do that. Hence why our forward line was not functioning and why the league's best and most form forward could not kick goals.


Predicted coach's Best 22
B: Boyd Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
C: Acres Cripps Hollands
HF: Martin McKay Cuningham/Cottrell
F: Owies Curnow Motlop
OB: DeKoning Walsh Cerra
IC: Silvagni Hewett Docherty Newman
SUB: Cuningham/Cottrell

I think the weak spots in the team are probably the rotations and the bench. Silvagni is just an ok forward/ruck. Hewett adds some grunt but also adds to our issues with agility, two way run and lack of leg speed. Docherty is a strong rotation. Newman is a very good player. Our onball group is weak on the outside and slow on the inside and that's a problem against the better teams and will be a problem next season as teams adjust to being quicker and better two way runners in there. Our backline is an improvement. Our forward line lacks a genuine forward/mid.

If was coaching Carlton I'd go with the following side but I doubt we will go that way and I doubt Dow will be at Carlton next season. Should we find a similar player to Dow this is how I would go, just insert their name on the ball there.

My Best 22
B: Boyd Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Marchbank Williams
C: Acres Cripps Hollands
HF: Martin McKay Cerra
F: Owies Curnow Motlop
OB: DeKoning Walsh Dow
IC: Silvagni Hewett Docherty Newman
SUB: Cuningham or Cottrell

Wing rotations can be split between Docherty, Williams and Cerra.

Dow gives us the speed, agility and ball carry from stoppage. Cerra gives us a genuine forward mid who can impact both areas. Both these players need to rotate to be two way runners as neither have elite endurance which is fine, it's normal to have guys in your midfield like that. IMO they would rotate really well together. Cerra was a good forward for Fremantle when he played forward and for periods this year he gave us plenty up forward as well. He's a massive upgrade on Fogarty and Cuningham.
 
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B: Boyd, Weitering, Crozier
HB: McGovern, Marchbank, Saad
C: Hollands, Kennedy, Acres
HF: Martin, McKay, Williams
F: Motlop, Curnow, Silvagni
Foll: De Koning, Cerra, Walsh

Int: Cripps, Docherty, Hewett, Kemp

Sub: Cottrell

Emer: S Durdin, Newman, Pittonet, Cincotta


My big move is Williams to the half forward line to add more pace and the ability to lower the eyes and spot up short targets inside 50. I'm going with the rumour mill and adding the experienced Crozier who can rebound with pace and who can take a mark. I like having the run of Boyd, Crozier and Saad in our defence.

I'm not satisfied with either Marchbank or Kemp taking a key defensive post and if and when we can get a 200cm KPD ready to walk into the side, I'm all over it. Marchbank gets it for now as the more experienced player and Kemp can be the bench utility.

I'm backing Hollands in as our full time winger opposite Acres. I'd prefer our elder statesmen in Cripps and Docherty to be part of the midfield rotation but coming in when the game slows down a little to do their damage.

I have backed in the TDK/Silvagni ruck combo for now. Both can rest forward and if Silvagni is an 80/20 forward/ruck split, he will do damage up forward and create goals for the smalls. McKay should do the forward ruckwork to give TDK more of a break.

S Durdin is an emergency call up for an injured KPD and perhaps a horses for courses selection when the opposition have a dangerous giant forward.

I know Newman will get a walk up start next year but this is my team. I want the pace and the ability to play tall in my backline. I think our balance is wrong. No more playing medium defenders who lack a yard on speedy opposition small forwards. He's still a good, experienced player and he may well win our B&F this year, so no need to argue the point. I get it, but I'm all about balance.

The rest all have more to prove and I hope they do.
Crozier over Newman. Boy oh boy.... wowwewwwwe
 
Current thoughts:

FB: Marchbank, Weitering, Boyd
HB: Williams, McGovern, Saad

C: Acres, Cripps, O Hollands
R: De Koning, Cerra, Walsh

HF: Martin, Kemp, E Hollands
FF: McKay, Curnow, Motlop

Int: Newman (def), Kennedy (inside), Docherty (mid/wing), C Durdin (fwd)

Sub: Binns

Hewett, Silvagni, Pittonet

Sub & emg picked around being actual 'emergency' selection, not necessarily the next in-line to be in the 22. Binns for run as sub, could be a tactical replacement for Kennedy, Durdin or even one on the 3rd talls.

Mid rotations:
Cripps 65%
Walsh 60%
Cerra 65%
Kennedy 50%
Docherty 40%
Williams 15%
E Holland 15%

De Koning 85%
McKay 15%

Obviously works on the assumption that Harry can learn to ruck and pinch hit for 3 mins a quarter (time on), as well as Elijah making his way across (& getting ahead of the other mid/fwds), Kemp transitioning to 3rd tall forward (if we're wedded to Marchbank being #2 down back ahead of him), Durdin stepping up ahead of Owies, Fog, DC, etc.
 
Don’t see Corey Durdin in our best 22 competing with the likes of Motlop, Cunningham, (NEW) Hollands, Martin, Fogarty I’d say he behind them all
 
More of a prediction based on the summer then best 22 right now.

B: McGovern Weitering Newman
HB: Williams Kemp Saad
C: Acres Cripps Docherty
HF: Hollands (E) Curnow Cottrell
F: Martin McKay Motlop
OB: TDK Cerra Walsh
IC: Cowan Hewett Hollands (O) Durdin (C)
 
AS much as we did really well during our winning streak, imo we do need a KPD to support Weiters, maybe not for every game but definitely against the teams that require the 200cm types matchup…

Marchbank who had a great Preliminary final v Kemp who hopefully elevates his game another level, preseason games will tell us…

Sam Durdin hopefully has a strong preseason, would really like Young to get his game back on track, firstly simply really needs to develop his defensive one on one game and play with a greater controlled aggression, there’s a good KPD in there if he can iron out these two things alone…

Boyd Weitering McGovern
Williams Durdin Saad
Acres Walsh O.Hollands
Motlop McKay Martin
Silvagni Curnow Durdin

DeKoning Cripps Cerra

Cuningham Docherty Hewett Newman

SUB: Cottrell

Cincotta Young Kemp
Monahan* Marchbank Cowan
Binns Kennedy J.Sinn*
E.Hollands* Lemmey Fogarty
Duffey* O’Keefe Owies

Pittonet Carroll ****

Mirkov *. * Akuei

Midfielders
Medium Forwards
Key Defender
Key Forward/Ruck
Small Forward
 

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Current thoughts:

FB: Marchbank, Weitering, Boyd
HB: Williams, McGovern, Saad

C: Acres, Cripps, O Hollands
R: De Koning, Cerra, Walsh

HF: Martin, Kemp, E Hollands
FF: McKay, Curnow, Motlop

Int: Newman (def), Kennedy (inside), Docherty (mid/wing), C Durdin (fwd)

Sub: Binns

Hewett, Silvagni, Pittonet

Sub & emg picked around being actual 'emergency' selection, not necessarily the next in-line to be in the 22. Binns for run as sub, could be a tactical replacement for Kennedy, Durdin or even one on the 3rd talls.

Mid rotations:
Cripps 65%
Walsh 60%
Cerra 65%
Kennedy 50%
Docherty 40%
Williams 15%
E Holland 15%

De Koning 85%
McKay 15%

Obviously works on the assumption that Harry can learn to ruck and pinch hit for 3 mins a quarter (time on), as well as Elijah making his way across (& getting ahead of the other mid/fwds), Kemp transitioning to 3rd tall forward (if we're wedded to Marchbank being #2 down back ahead of him), Durdin stepping up ahead of Owies, Fog, DC, etc.
I like it

Personally, I like Hewett more than Kennedy - but, that’s marginal

Adding these guys will make our team more zippy: ZWilliams, EHolland, CDurdin & Binns - bring on 2024!

FB: Marchbank, Weitering, Boyd
HB: Williams, McGovern, Saad

C: Acres, Cripps, O Hollands
R: De Koning, Cerra, Walsh

HF: Martin, Kemp, E Hollands
FF: McKay, Curnow, Motlop

Int: Newman (def), Hewett (inside), Docherty (mid/wing), C Durdin (fwd)

Sub: Binns
 
B: Boyd, Weitering, Crozier
HB: McGovern, Marchbank, Saad
C: Hollands, Kennedy, Acres
HF: Martin, McKay, Williams
F: Motlop, Curnow, Silvagni
Foll: De Koning, Cerra, Walsh

Int: Cripps, Docherty, Hewett, Kemp

Sub: Cottrell

Emer: S Durdin, Newman, Pittonet, Cincotta


My big move is Williams to the half forward line to add more pace and the ability to lower the eyes and spot up short targets inside 50. I'm going with the rumour mill and adding the experienced Crozier who can rebound with pace and who can take a mark. I like having the run of Boyd, Crozier and Saad in our defence.

I'm not satisfied with either Marchbank or Kemp taking a key defensive post and if and when we can get a 200cm KPD ready to walk into the side, I'm all over it. Marchbank gets it for now as the more experienced player and Kemp can be the bench utility.

I'm backing Hollands in as our full time winger opposite Acres. I'd prefer our elder statesmen in Cripps and Docherty to be part of the midfield rotation but coming in when the game slows down a little to do their damage.

I have backed in the TDK/Silvagni ruck combo for now. Both can rest forward and if Silvagni is an 80/20 forward/ruck split, he will do damage up forward and create goals for the smalls. McKay should do the forward ruckwork to give TDK more of a break.

S Durdin is an emergency call up for an injured KPD and perhaps a horses for courses selection when the opposition have a dangerous giant forward.

I know Newman will get a walk up start next year but this is my team. I want the pace and the ability to play tall in my backline. I think our balance is wrong. No more playing medium defenders who lack a yard on speedy opposition small forwards. He's still a good, experienced player and he may well win our B&F this year, so no need to argue the point. I get it, but I'm all about balance.

The rest all have more to prove and I hope they do.
Newman's efficiency with his kicking is part of the fast play that allows us to break from half that and even setting up goals to the forwards...... For example both of Silvagni's Port Adelaide goals in the first quarter were from precise wheel and go precise placement kicks from Nick Newman
the goal that got us within a kick in the semifinal against Melbourne to \Motlop who was another example of Nick Newman precisely weighing his kick
and you don't measure pace nearly by straight line running however running effectively to get into space or to make a tackle and apply pressure.... To get into position to make an interception
The ability to read the play first because he can anticipate the drop of the ball with superior judgment is also a Nick Newman speciality
making tackles stick because of the extra determination and technique is also a Nick Newman special
under those circumstances how can you rate Hayden Crozier in front of Nick Newman even when you are looking at Pace and break away attacking football
Nick Newman is also the captain of the backline in setting up the entire setup behind the ball together with Jacob Weitering
 
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Newman's efficiency with his kicking is part of the fast play that allows us to break from half that and even setting up goals to the forwards...... For example both of Silvagni's Port Adelaide goals in the first quarter were from precise wheel and go precise placement kicks from Nick Newman
the goal that got us within a kick in the semifinal against Melbourne to \Motlop who was another example of Nick Newman precisely weighing his kick
and you don't measure pace nearly by straight line running however running effectively to get into space or to make a tackle and apply pressure.... To get into position to make an interception
The ability to read the play first because he can anticipate the drop of the ball with superior judgment is also a Nick Newman speciality
making tackles stick because of the extra determination and technique is also a Nick Newman special
under those circumstances how can you rate Hayden Crozier in front of Nick Newman even when you are looking at Pace and break away attacking football
Nick Newman is also the captain of the backline in setting up the entire setup behind the ball together with Jacob Weitering

Well my post is nearly a month old and Crozier isn't coming. Aside from that, it's an opinion whereby we see different things. I respect your opinion. I'm just not as bullish going forward.
 
B: McGovern-----------Marchbank--------------Newman

H: Williams-------------Weitering----------------Saad

C: Docherty-------------Cripps------------------Acres

H: Martin---------------C.Curnow--------------Cuningham

F: Motlop----------------McKay-----------------Owies

Foll: De Koning, Cerra, Walsh

Bench: Kemp, Hewett, Silvagni, Fogarty

Sub: O.Hollands

Emerg: Pittonet, Young, Boyd, Cincotta, Cowan, Kennedy, *E.Hollands, Cottrell, Durdin
 
Predicted Best 22
B: Newman Weitering McGovern
HB: Saad Kemp Williams
C: Acres Cripps O. Hollands
HF: Cuningham McKay E. Hollands
F: Martin Curnow Motlop
OB: DeKoning Walsh Cerra
IC: Silvagni Kennedy Docherty Boyd
SUB: Cottrell
EMG: Hewett Owies Fogarty Marchbank

Comments:
-I think O. Hollands and Kemp will take the next step and be best 18
-I like having flankers who can legitimately pinch hit in the midfield now. Older Hollands, Cunners, Williams, Doch, Newman...our mid rotations will be deeper and more dynamic.
 
Here’s a best 18 Depth chart. Bold is main 18 and the regular font is the depth 18.

Williams Weitering Newman
Cincotta Young Cowan

Saad Marchbank McGovern
Boyd Durdin Kemp

Docherty Cripps Acres
Binns Kennedy Hollands

Cottrell McKay Martin
Cunners Lemmey Hollands

Motlop Charlie Fogarty
Owies Silvagni Durdin

TDK Walsh Cerra
Pitto Carroll Hewett

This is based off the prelim team (Williams straight in) so it’s still fluid on who gets picked in 2024 and obviously 5 players from the depth 18 will get selected to the bench. Let me know if I’ve missed anyone.
 
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My final prediction

B: Newman Weitering McGovern
HB: Williams Kemp Saad
C: Acres Cripps Docherty
HF: E.Hollands McKay Durdin
F: Motlop Curnow Martin
OB: Dekoning Cerra Walsh
IC: Cowan Hewett Cottrell O.Hollands

  • McKay to become our backup ruck. Makes us a much more flexible team.
  • E.Hollands and Durdin to replace Fog and Cunners as our high half forwards who rotate onball.
  • Cottrell to play mainly as a defensive forward
  • O.Hollands to play wing and high half forward
  • Prefer Cowan to Boyd as he is more of a hybrid type for our 7th defender.

Reserves
B: Marchbank Durdin VFL / Draftee
HB: Cincotta Young Boyd
C: Binns Carroll VFL / Draftee
HF: Fogarty Silvagni VFL / Draftee
F: Owies Lemmey O'Keefe
OB: Pittonett Kennedy Cunningham
IC: Akuie Mirkov VFL / Draftee VFL / Draftee
 
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