2024 Draft Thread.

[Ricmel]

10 weeks to go to the Draft

Unfortunately that is not enough time for us to debate every crazy permutation mathematically available to us. I'm thinking trade season is way to short. Should be 17 weeks plus 3 weeks so we can devote a week to every other club's gettables then do a quick 3 week final wrap.

Weird how the footy season is 25 weeks but trade season is only 12 weeks. AFL has it all backwards.

 

[Ricmel]

I'm a lot more confident about Phillipou reaching elite levels than I am about Owens doing the same.

Even less bullish than you. Owens season was maybe the biggest disappointment on the list in terms of development. I see some really worrying traits in his game, the biggest are his hands are just not clean and for a potential mid, his balance and ability to stay on his feet is ordinary.

Hope I am wrong.

 

[botts]

Even less bullish than you. Owens season was maybe the biggest disappointment on the list in terms of development. I see some really worrying traits in his game, the biggest are his hands are just not clean and for a potential mid, his balance and ability to stay on his feet is ordinary.

Hope I am wrong.

I can’t undersell how bad his life at home would have been. Very close family and his dad got up and left. His mum is devastated and isolated and they arnt speaking to him. He still lives at home with her but they are selling the family home. He will be better next year but with what went on I’m surprised he played some good footy at all.

 

[MightySaint]

Pou's 4 games since he came back from the VFL:
Sydney - 26 and a goal, 5 tackles, 6 contested
Adelaide - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 15 contested
Brisbane - 24 and a goal, 3 tackles, 7 contested
Carlton - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 7 contested
Playing a mix of on ball and half forward. 9 shots on goal during that span. Unfortunate that he had two breaks in between with injury.
Either way, he looked like a goal kicking impact mid. And he got outside ball, so it wasn't just grunt work.
If this is the base, as a 19 year old, we've got an all australian midfielder in the future. Fingers crossed.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I can’t undersell how bad his life at home would have been. Very close family and his dad got up and left. His mum is devastated and isolated and they arnt speaking to him. He still lives at home with her but they are selling the family home. He will be better next year but with what went on I’m surprised he played some good footy at all.

This is a great example of none of us knowing what is going on in the lives of the young men who represent our club.

They go through exactly the same shit that anyone else in the community can go through.

 

[gringo2011]

My equivalent to your parable is Bartel and Heppell both hitting at pick 8. One much more accomplished than the other, sure. However, I am not concerned with how much of a hit someone is, just whether it is a hit for that pick based upon an obvious median benchmark.

Anyway, yes it is a guide but it I’ll back history until history changes (thanks Hoyne).

Last 12 years; (excluding undraftables)

2022 - 2
2. Sheezal vs 7. Clark 8. Ginbey
2021 - 2 (only just)
2. Callaghan vs 7. Amiss 8. Gibcus
2020 - Draw
2. Phillips vs 7. Hollands 8. Cox
2019 7+8
2. Anderson vs 7. Young 8. Serong
2018 - Draw
2. Lukocius vs 7. Smith 8. Thomas
2017 - 2
2. Brayshaw vs 7. Clark 8. Coffield
2016 - 2
2. Taranto vs 7. Scrimshaw 8. Logue
2015 - Draw
2. Shache vs 7. Ah Chee 8. Weirder man
2014 - 2
2. Petracca vs 7. Ahern 8. Wright
2013 - 2
2. Kelly vs 7. Aish 8. McDonald
2012 - 7+8
2. O’Rourke vs 7. Wines 8. Mayes
2011 - 2
2. Coniglio vs 7. Haynes 8. Longer

Scoreboard:

Pick 2 = 7/12
Draw/wash = 3/12
Pick 7+8 = 2/12

With so much more vision available currently, there’s a lot less doubt and more opportunity to assess players. Much more of an exact science compared with the previous decade which was much closer to 50/50.

I think my final thought (I’m sure everyone is sick of me flogging the Lilly) would be that every year differs as you say but ultimately the stats prove it’s better to have the higher pick because perceptions can and have been wrong.

A top few will crystallize by draft night and we will be fumbling about trying to shuffle 8 back or trading it for a soon to be has been. Could just take the punt on who’s available but we could take less of a punt by moving on up and taking best available.

Pretty subjective but I'm rating nearly every 7 and 8 over one pick 2 except when we picked two spuds out of a draft that ran very deep like this one. Petracca and Coniglio drafts also. Not many clubs let the best player in the draft go to pick 2 though.

How did you equate Schache over Ah Chee? Ah Chee isn't a champion but he's a good solid player. Schache is a spud.

Also I love Anderson but I'm taking Young and Serong as a combo every time over one Anderson.

Bailey Smith over Luko easily.

Amiss and Gibcus are a great combo and as good as Calaghan is I'm taking the two talls. Amiss looks a star tall forward and if Gibcus gets his body right that's an insanely good pair of book ends.

 

[Leap of Faith]

Pou's 4 games since he came back from the VFL:
Sydney - 26 and a goal, 5 tackles, 6 contested
Adelaide - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 15 contested
Brisbane - 24 and a goal, 3 tackles, 7 contested
Carlton - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 7 contested
Playing a mix of on ball and half forward. 9 shots on goal during that span. Unfortunate that he had two breaks in between with injury.
Either way, he looked like a goal kicking impact mid. And he got outside ball, so it wasn't just grunt work.
If this is the base, as a 19 year old, we've got an all australian midfielder in the future. Fingers crossed.

Thanks for the stats. Appears to me to be the most likely on our list to become an elite mid. Not yet 20 y.o

 

[gringo2011]

Even less bullish than you. Owens season was maybe the biggest disappointment on the list in terms of development. I see some really worrying traits in his game, the biggest are his hands are just not clean and for a potential mid, his balance and ability to stay on his feet is ordinary.

Hope I am wrong.

He had the second year blues a year late. He had moments where he looked back to his best still. Phillipou could easily do the same next year. Development isn't linear and if they are carrying an injury or need a clean out it can derail a season.

 

[Ricmel]

He had the second year blues a year late. He had moments where he looked back to his best still.

As I said, I hope I am wrong but usually clean hands are clean hands.

 

[g_TRAIN]

He had the second year blues a year late. He had moments where he looked back to his best still. Phillipou could easily do the same next year. Development isn't linear and if they are carrying an injury or need a clean out it can derail a season.

I think the key thing to remember is guys who show what Owens and Pou have shown at such a young age usually tend to go on and become excellent players even if they do suffer inconsistency in their early 20s.

Their peak won't be for another 5-7 years or so.

 

[SteeleSaints]

He had the second year blues a year late. He had moments where he looked back to his best still. Phillipou could easily do the same next year. Development isn't linear and if they are carrying an injury or need a clean out it can derail a season.

I thought Owens had a poor year and didnt improve given how he had been projecting during 2023. Perhaps clubs put a bit more work into him but he needs to learn how to get separation on his opponents. He was playing very much like a kid relying on his physical attributes and had become easy to play on. Im sure he will learn and improve but he needs a coach to teach him more about his forward craft. Mitch has a lot to improve on but Im not sure Harvey is the coach to be teaching marking players and forwards how to improve their games.

 

[gringo2011]

Pou's 4 games since he came back from the VFL:
Sydney - 26 and a goal, 5 tackles, 6 contested
Adelaide - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 15 contested
Brisbane - 24 and a goal, 3 tackles, 7 contested
Carlton - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 7 contested
Playing a mix of on ball and half forward. 9 shots on goal during that span. Unfortunate that he had two breaks in between with injury.
Either way, he looked like a goal kicking impact mid. And he got outside ball, so it wasn't just grunt work.
If this is the base, as a 19 year old, we've got an all australian midfielder in the future. Fingers crossed.

Since the VFL stint he's been exceptional. Losing players like that is how you stay in perpetual shitness. King I get the chatter even if I would be unlikely to want to trade him. He's had a good run to prove himself and we aren't getting maximum return from the investment yet but Phillipou looks as blue chip and any kid we have had since our golden generation was coming through 20 years ago. Luckily Wilson looks nearly as good and probably tracking even better at the same age.

 

[gringo2011]

I thought Owens had a poor year and didnt improve given how he had been projecting during 2023. Perhaps clubs put a bit more work into him but he needs to learn how to get separation on his opponents. He was playing very much like a kid relying on his physical attributes and had become easy to play on. Im sure he will learn and improve but he needs a coach to teach him more about his forward craft. Im not sure Harvey is the coach to be teaching marking players and forwards how to improve their games.

I think people forget how many injuries we had for a while. Having no midfield and even players like Wood, Henry, Sincs all coming back from injury or missing make delivery inside 50 harder, add the loss of King that then sends a better defender to Owens and it gives him a few excuses. Membrey seemed to go from a reliable player his whole career to unreliable in the same period. Once we got mids back he all of a sudden returned to the guy we all expect to see.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Since the VFL stint he's been exceptional. Losing players like that is how you stay in perpetual shitness. King I get the chatter even if I would be unlikely to want to trade him. He's had a good run to prove himself and we aren't getting maximum return from the investment yet but Phillipou looks as blue chip and any kid we have had since our golden generation was coming through 20 years ago. Luckily Wilson looks nearly as good and probably tracking even better at the same age.

King has still kicked the biggest bags of any tall forward we have, but had a bad year this year.
To me its a matter of getting our forward line organised properly.
If King is being locked down, we have other competent talls we should be using . Don't kick it to the locked down guy.
If all of our forwards can be "dangerous" they won't be able to focus on one guy, but its the guys kicking into 50 who have to make our other forwards dangerous.

 

[gringo2011]

As I said, I hope I am wrong but usually clean hands are clean hands.

He's not a clean player but that doesn't man he can't be a star. Just needs to maximise his strengths which is his contested work. Even guys that halve a contest and bring the ball to ground are super valuable in footy. He can then win the ball back through his size and ability grunt in close. If we get him back to his 2023 form we have a really solid contributor and if he can get 20% better on top of that he could be a gun.

 

[Ricmel]

Since the VFL stint he's been exceptional. Losing players like that is how you stay in perpetual shitness. King I get the chatter even if I would be unlikely to want to trade him. He's had a good run to prove himself and we aren't getting maximum return from the investment yet but Phillipou looks as blue chip and any kid we have had since our golden generation was coming through 20 years ago. Luckily Wilson looks nearly as good and probably tracking even better at the same age.

Well you have to throw NWM in there as well. Had a better year than Pou's second by a stretch. But agree, Pou's last 5 or 6 games were very exciting and I think he will go on with it. Hope with him is we can keep him.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Ivan Soldo's "girlfriend"

Nar, definitely a salary dump situation.
3rd round pick with a 4th coming back IMO.

 

[akaifu]

Do we prefer power, class, or speed from our round one picks?

Power for me

You see power in Murphy Reid?

 

[akaifu]

Class and Power.

You can train and develop speed to a degree, you can’t teach class.

Why is Clark still a slug then

 

[akaifu]

Spoke briefly with a friend in club circles and it was interesting to hear the fairly definitive notion of “if you take a top 10 pick you’re wanting them playing/eligible straight away”.

Who would we draft at 7/8 that we could feasibly see playing instantly in 2025?

Literally any of them tbh

Langford probably starts in the Wilson role as a wing/fwd
Smillie would be mid/fwd - very mature body already
Lalor probably starts similar to Trac's initial fwd role
Trainor maybe as a half back or third tall depending on his defensive work. Maybe even as a forward or winger depending on running power
Reid starts as a half back Sheezel-type rebounder
Travaglia might take a bit of time but still could play as a winger
Lindsay is a lock on the wing

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Going to sound completely contradictory here, but I agree with you, which might say more about Owens than anything (and don't worry I love him too and don't want to trade him - that would be selling low). I don't have any issues with his attitude or professionalism, but it certainly feels like he regressed this year.

I'm quietly hoping he was dealing with some OP issues or something of that nature, looked like he was dragging a tyre from the waist for most of the year. Would explain some of the reluctance to run him through the middle as well. The year prior had me as excited about a young player as I can remember. Shows how quickly things can change, but he still has plenty of time

To some extent he’s almost a second year given first year disruptions. Perhaps the quite delayed start to pre-season. Certainly looked to have dropped confidence.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Pou's 4 games since he came back from the VFL:
Sydney - 26 and a goal, 5 tackles, 6 contested
Adelaide - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 15 contested
Brisbane - 24 and a goal, 3 tackles, 7 contested
Carlton - 20 and a goal, 9 tackles, 7 contested
Playing a mix of on ball and half forward. 9 shots on goal during that span. Unfortunate that he had two breaks in between with injury.
Either way, he looked like a goal kicking impact mid. And he got outside ball, so it wasn't just grunt work.
If this is the base, as a 19 year old, we've got an all australian midfielder in the future. Fingers crossed.

Agree. Magic hands inside. Clever. And can mark and kick goals.

 

[SteeleSaints]

King has still kicked the biggest bags of any tall forward we have, but had a bad year this year.
To me its a matter of getting our forward line organised properly.
If King is being locked down, we have other competent talls we should be using . Don't kick it to the locked down guy.
If all of our forwards can be "dangerous" they won't be able to focus on one guy, but its the guys kicking into 50 who have to make our other forwards dangerous.

King needs to work through or work over opponents. He is too easily screened and shut out of games when he plays the goal square post. It has been suggested but the best position for Max and the team to improve is Max at CHF. Force him to keep moving and keep leading up at the ball, thats when he plays his best footy.

 

[L_W_P]

After all the rumors, all the posts, all the hype...

Watch this be the year we finally get Heeney to nominate us. 15 year, $45m contract plus a promise that he gets to takeover as club president when he retires.

Will cost us 7, 8, Pou, Steele and Marshall as well as our future 2nd + 3rd rounders for the next 3 years but with Heeney and Soldo's missus coming in we will be OK.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

After all the rumors, all the posts, all the hype...

Watch this be the year we finally get Heeney to nominate us. 15 year, $45m contract plus a promise that he gets to takeover as club president when he retires.

Will cost us 7, 8, Pou, Steele and Marshall as well as our future 2nd + 3rd rounders for the next 3 years but with Heeney and Soldo's missus coming in we will be OK.

We should get Shiel for depth i reckon.