List Mgmt. 2024 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

 

[Dan87]

I think Heeney was amazing as a forward and then amazing as a mid

I think he probably needs to be rotated more for his body's sake going forward

Is it lower leg stress fracture on the same side as chronic ankle or am I wrong

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Just looking at our first rounders for the last twenty years (drafts where we had a pick only). I guess we'd have to agree onwhat we consider a hit or miss. Is it picking a good player or is them staying at your club the measure of success? I'm not including Academy picks for better or worse in this.

• 2006:
  • Pick 15: Dylan O'Keefe. Miss
• 2007:
  • Pick 11: Daniel Veszpremi - 23 games - Miss
• 2008:
  • Pick 12: Lewis Johnston - 10 games - Miss
• 2009:
  • Pick 6: Gary Rohan 204 games (106 for us) Hit
  • Pick 14 Lewis Jetta 216 games (127 for us) Hit
• 2010:
  • Pick 21 Jed Lamb - 66 Games (12 for us) Miss
• 2012
  • Pick 22: Dean Towers 57 Games Miss I guess but not a lot was going on in that section of this draft.
• 2013
  • Pick 15: Zac Jones - 150 games (90 for us) Hit
• 2016
  • Pick 11: Ollie Florent - 168 games and counting. Hit
  • Pick 21: Will Hayward - 163 games and counting. Hit
• 2017
  • Pick 14: Matthew Ling - O games. Miss
• 2019
  • Pick 5 Dylan Stephens - 59 Games (43 for us) Miss
• 2020
  • Pick 4: Logan McDonald - 68 Games - Jury out
• 2021
  • Pick 19: Angus Sheldrick - 9 Games - Jury out
• 2022
  • Pick 20: Jacob Konstanty - 0 Games - Miss
• 2023
  • Pick 16: Will Green - 0 Games - Jury out.

If you look through the rankings on Draftguru, there are very few of our first round picks that are judged to have been much poorer than those around them. Another thing to consider is that most of our live first rounders have been at the tail end of the first round. Five of them in the last twenty years were outside what would be the first round in a pure draft. Of our live picks inside the top ten, we've had a bad miss (Stephens), a 200 gamer, and McDonald, who looks to be on track for 150 games or more.

I guess my question is, what does a good record with these picks over this period look like? Would definitely have been great to have nailed 2019, but who's doing a great deal better when they're starting their draft in the late teens / early 20s?

Awesome post. One of my favourites of the year.

Missed first round picks are probably like red lights. You remember them more than green lights and always think you are getting a bad run.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Probably what a lot of Lions fans thought after last year's defeat to Collingwood. Brisbane had been in the mix for a number of years but couldn't get over the hump. Now it's our turn to overcome the same narrative.

We have the talent to be premiers but we have to get our mindset right to reach the next threshold. Our GF performance was symptomatic of our first quarter debacles this year so until we fix that, it's gonna keep happening.

Our forward line could use tinkering and I hope Buller and Hamling get a shot next year at least to give the current line up a good wake up call.

This year feels like a failure but our organisation is professional enough to review and reform where required.

Geelong also had the same narrative to overcome.

It is amazing how one GF win can completely change how everyone thinks of team.

Chris Scott would probably not be considered a really good coach if he lost in 2022 (which may well have happened if Collingwood managed to get over us in the prelim).

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I don't think Heeney becoming an A+ on baller was on the radar at the start of the season.

I can't really predict who that will be to make the big jump in 2025 but let's hope there are a few who will make a big improvement.

I am hoping Mills is the big surprise packet. No one, and I mean no one in the AFL should be more motivated than him next year.

Mills in the mids also lets Rowbottom be more dynamic (so I also see Rowbottom surprising) and Heeney to play a little bit more outside. Together the three will make a mid core that is hard at it and two-way running. Each week their opposition mids will know they have played a game.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Long post incoming on the culture of the list.

With Parker moving on and Rampe nearing the end, there is a great opportunity for this list to own the Bloods culture. I suspect more than a few have felt like they have needed to adopt it, but they have also done this in the context of receiving it from a small number of ageing leaders, who also weren’t the leaders that got it started. As a result the Bloods culture got watered down and stale. A refresh is needed.

The Bloods culture was started in the context of the Swans not winning a GF in 70 odd years and the list having limited talent. So they went for grit and hardness as their defining features. And succeeded.

We are now a very different team, full of talent and pace. So what should modern day Bloods culture look like?

I think first we need to start with what the current team’s culture currently looks like (which I and many others would say is not fitting of a bloods culture). The positive characteristics that jump out to me are fighting to the end (yes, even in the GF), running hard all day, backing their skills, and caring for one another. The negative characteristics are being cocky, sporadic, soft at times, and suffering from stage fright.

The characteristics I think they should aim for going forward are:

1. Hard at it and relentless - be the hardest team to play against. Seek out contact and win the point of contact. Run harder and longer than the opposition does. This combines contact and running as two ingredients of hardness that are both non-negotiable. It also excludes the faux tough guy push and shove the team toyed around with in 2020 and 2021, and which still persists to some degree (it’s fine if this is some players natural way of being, but it has to follow and then be backed up by actual hardness).

2. Desperate in defence, across the whole team. The most joy I got in 2022 was the team’s defensive efforts. Just like SCG crowds appreciate spin bowling in cricket more than any other, we also adore defensive efforts in AFL. Rampe mentioned at the time that mantra was desperation in defence. How I feel this slid away this year, so the team needs to bring it back, but also celebrate defensive plays by our forwards as well. For example, Amartey made some terrific tackles this year (esp for a KPF) but I didn’t see the team lift around them.

3. Ruthless with our skills - punish teams brutally with silky smooth ball movement that turns opposition lapses into immediate pain. But don’t celebrate the razzmatazz, celebrate the pain and doubt it creates for the opposition. Relish dominating them and never take the foot of the throat. Never get too cute and let them back in the game. Make them feel hopeless and then hurt them (on the scoreboard) some more.

4. Deep respect for the opposition, the guernsey and the supporters. Never forget you are playing against others who have also devoted themselves to the goal premiership glory, regardless of where they sit on the ladder or their current injuries and form. Never forget the history of this great club and what it stands for. And never forget the supporters who are the most crucial element in carrying the club forward. Never be arrogant.

You might notice that each of these values references the opposition. I think a big problem with the team this year what that its focus become about itself. It first became insular, then cocky, then lost, then nervous. Better to focus on beating the opposition and winning, and what needs to be done to make this happen. This mindset makes it hard to have stage fright, as the focus is external, not internal.

 

[rustycrate]

Long post incoming on the culture of the list.

With Parker moving on and Rampe nearing the end, there is a great opportunity for this list to own the Bloods culture. I suspect more than a few have felt like they have needed to adopt it, but they have also done this in the context of receiving it from a small number of ageing leaders, who also weren’t the leaders that got it started. As a result the Bloods culture got watered down and stale. A refresh is needed.

The Bloods culture was started in the context of the Swans not winning a GF in 70 odd years and the list having limited talent. So they went for grit and hardness as their defining features. And succeeded.

We are now a very different team, full of talent and pace. So what should modern day Bloods culture look like?

I think first we need to start with what the current team’s culture currently looks like (which I and many others would say is not fitting of a bloods culture). The positive characteristics that jump out to me are fighting to the end (yes, even in the GF), running hard all day, backing their skills, and caring for one another. The negative characteristics are being cocky, sporadic, soft at times, and suffering from stage fright.

The characteristics I think they should aim for going forward are:

1. Hard at it and relentless - be the hardest team to play against. Seek out contact and win the point of contact. Run harder and longer than the opposition does. This combines contact and running as two ingredients of hardness that are both non-negotiable. It also excludes the faux tough guy push and shove the team toyed around with in 2020 and 2021, and which still persists to some degree (it’s fine if this is some players natural way of being, but it has to follow and then be backed up by actual hardness).

2. Desperate in defence, across the whole team. The most joy I got in 2022 was the team’s defensive efforts. Just like SCG crowds appreciate spin bowling in cricket more than any other, we also adore defensive efforts in AFL. Rampe mentioned at the time that mantra was desperation in defence. How I feel this slid away this year, so the team needs to bring it back, but also celebrate defensive plays by our forwards as well. For example, Amartey made some terrific tackles this year (esp for a KPF) but I didn’t see the team lift around them.

3. Ruthless with our skills - punish teams brutally with silky smooth ball movement that turns opposition lapses into immediate pain. But don’t celebrate the razzmatazz, celebrate the pain and doubt it creates for the opposition. Relish dominating them and never take the foot of the throat. Never get too cute and let them back in the game. Make them feel hopeless and then hurt them (on the scoreboard) some more.

4. Deep respect for the opposition, the guernsey and the supporters. Never forget you are playing against others who have also devoted themselves to the goal premiership glory, regardless of where they sit on the ladder or their current injuries and form. Never forget the history of this great club and what it stands for. And never forget the supporters who are the most crucial element in carrying the club forward. Never be arrogant.

You might notice that each of these values references the opposition. I think a big problem with the team this year what that its focus become about itself. It first became insular, then cocky, then lost, then nervous. Better to focus on beating the opposition and winning, and what needs to be done to make this happen. This mindset makes it hard to have stage fright, as the focus is external, not internal.

You amaze me. I wish I had your gift to write like this.

Love your posts.

Makes me think.

 

[Andyjh]

Since the improvement has to come from within, who out of the players we have currently will be able to go up another level next year?

Only ones I can see going on natural trajectory are McDonald, Roberts and maybe Mcinerney.

AFL players tend to Peak at 27, we have a lot of Talent that are younger than that. This group could be scary if they play to full potential

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

You amaze me. I wish I had your gift to write like this.

Love your posts.

Makes me think.

Thanks Rusty my man. The feeling is mutual

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Probably more in the ‘way forward’ thread. However, our GF performance certainly does make one evaluate the shape and composition of the team and overall list leading into the draft. Otherwise, we’re doomed of repeating the cycle…again.

I agree sometimes discussion can be blended between both threads.

In regards to the list generally you get a 5-6 year window at the top before natural decline and taping off occurs I think we started our descent as a contender end of 2021.

 

[Tedeski]

Love it Rusty

Not too angry about the result if I'm honest. Little bit liberating in some ways. Will continue to watch less.

Important to realise it's entertainment

But I think there's some list realities people don't want to admit and just love the boys and the highlight clips

Fingers crossed

I got my membership email & am excited by the prospect of watching some more one way, front running finger twirling goals from our great home & away players. I’m just reconsidering whether I stop paying for the extra portion called “The Premiership Club” which in my eyes now is fraudulent marketing from the club.
Maybe the should offer a discounted rate & introduce another type of membership & call it “Front Runners Club” for those long time loyal members who only want to show up every now & again.

 

[Tedeski]

I see the frustration in your post. Every year some teams come from nowhere and surprise you. This could still be us too.

I will answer your questions and then make comment. I know your questions are not exhaustive. I also know you are still angry and I understand that too. Like I said in my previous post. I am a glass half full person at the worst of times.
McCartin can indeed be our number 1 defender.
Amartey did kick 9 goals in one game this year. I know our three KPFs had an average year as a unit. Amartey apparently had his first full preseason at the start of this year. Hopefully he has another and can improve again.
McDonald has the ability to get up the ground. He is a KPF who can cover a lot of distance and take those chop out marks.
How do we replace Rampe? Impossible. But sometimes you can't. He may play every game next year so it may not be an issue next year. When he does leave he will create a hole in the team. I agree. Fox is a very very very poor man's Rampe. That is all I can think of.

My glass half full stuff. I know you are still raw so I hope my hopefulness does not offend.
The mids are still improving.
We have contested mids like Mills, Adams, Sheldrick and Cleary that did not play in the GF. All will feature I hope more prominently next year.
We were good enough to make a GF. You don't lose talent.
We did not bring in established players because we endeavored to sign up the majority of players we have. I know this grates on supporters like you who would want to see more change after the GF debacle. List spots are pretty tight.

I am still hopeful. Sometimes a few subtle changes can dramatically change a side. We were not totally disgraceful through the home and away finishing first.

I do not have the answers for our GF performance except to say I think we needed to play more contested players to get more first use of the ball. The Swans may uncover other reasons. I think they will be stung into action to rectify things as they see it.

I know a lot on here are not as positive as I am. But that is just the way I am. I always try to see the positive way forward.

I used to be positive like you Rusty. I hope they don’t turn you into a bitter prick like they have me.

 

[Tedeski]

I don't think Heeney becoming an A+ on baller was on the radar at the start of the season.

I can't really predict who that will be to make the big jump in 2025 but let's hope there are a few who will make a big improvement.

Heens will be 29 in May next year. Finished the year badly hurt playing that role. He has max 50 games in him playing that hard contested role or 150 games as a forward.
The only improvement from the group I see is if Mills practices his wrestling at the contest & Heens replaces McDonald forward & McDonald goes back.
I just know Longmire will try & turn Logan into a defender going forward. I can see Logan becoming a McGovern type interceptor & that’s it really.

 

[SeanM]

Heens will be 29 in May next year. Finished the year badly hurt playing that role. He has max 50 games in him playing that hard contested role or 150 games as a forward.
The only improvement from the group I see is if Mills practices his wrestling at the contest & Heens replaces McDonald forward & McDonald goes back.
I just know Longmire will try & turn Logan into a defender going forward. I can see Logan becoming a McGovern type interceptor & that’s it really.

It will be interesting if we have to manage Heeney's time in the midfield to preserve his body. It might be like how Geelong have to look after Dangerfield throughout the season to make sure his body is ok for the finals.

So we might have to look within the squad to have that midfield depth to rotate with Heeney.

 

[The King!]

Probably what a lot of Lions fans thought after last year's defeat to Collingwood. Brisbane had been in the mix for a number of years but couldn't get over the hump. Now it's our turn to overcome the same narrative.

We have the talent to be premiers but we have to get our mindset right to reach the next threshold. Our GF performance was symptomatic of our first quarter debacles this year so until we fix that, it's gonna keep happening.

Our forward line could use tinkering and I hope Buller and Hamling get a shot next year at least to give the current line up a good wake up call.

This year feels like a failure but our organisation is professional enough to review and reform where required.

Could go back and post this in 2014 or 2016 or 2022.

I believed it this year but then I saw how mentally stuffed they looked from the first bounce.

Brisbane killed us , the margin was flattering. 30-15 scoring shots and let's be honest if not for Parker finally turning up in junk time it was basically heading for a 100 point loss.

Even the first quarter our goals were mostly arse.

My point is they already showed they couldn't get back from 22.

Yes it's one more win, but mentally this group is stuffed imo

 

[The King!]

List changes don't matter much mind you, we don't have a good coach

 

[Wheresbuddy]

Could go back and post this in 2014 or 2016 or 2022.

I believed it this year but then I saw how mentally stuffed they looked from the first bounce.

Brisbane killed us , the margin was flattering. 30-15 scoring shots and let's be honest if not for Parker finally turning up in junk time it was basically heading for a 100 point loss.

Even the first quarter our goals were mostly arse.

My point is they already showed they couldn't get back from 22.

Yes it's one more win, but mentally this group is stuffed imo

I agree. Watching live at the ground, I was shocked at how flat the team looked pretty much from the start. In my heart, I still had hope at the start of the third but my brain knew we were cooked at the end of the first.

 

[Punts]

Imagine if they kick straight

Like most said

Score board flattering

 

[Wheresbuddy]

Heens will be 29 in May next year. Finished the year badly hurt playing that role. He has max 50 games in him playing that hard contested role or 150 games as a forward.
The only improvement from the group I see is if Mills practices his wrestling at the contest & Heens replaces McDonald forward & McDonald goes back.
I just know Longmire will try & turn Logan into a defender going forward. I can see Logan becoming a McGovern type interceptor & that’s it really.

This is a long shot, but I remember being impressed by Jack Buller's start at the club after being picked up midseason. In particular, his work rate in the VFL was excellent and he showed good mobility to work up the field, complimenting his F50 craft. He was also pretty handy as a chop out ruck. If he can remain injury free and make some good strides early in 2025, he could become a tall forward option.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

List changes don't matter much mind you, we don't have a good coach

We have a good coach without analyzing to deeply you dont consistently fail on GF day if you dont.

 

[bedford]

AFL players tend to Peak at 27, we have a lot of Talent that are younger than that. This group could be scary if they play to full potential

How old is Lachie Neale

 

[bedford]

This is a long shot, but I remember being impressed by Jack Buller's start at the club after being picked up midseason. In particular, his work rate in the VFL was excellent and he showed good mobility to work up the field, complimenting his F50 craft. He was also pretty handy as a chop out ruck. If he can remain injury free and make some good strides early in 2025, he could become a tall forward option.

THIS

 

[Dan87]

List changes don't matter much mind you, we don't have a good coach

What a cop out