Preview 2024 Elimination Final Carlton vs Brisbane Saturday 7th September 7:30PM AEST @ The Gabba

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …

AFL team news: Blues welcome back six

Tom De Koning is one of half a dozen of Carlton inclusions for the elimination final.

www.carltonfc.com.au

6 Changes :-

 

[jimsta10]

Carrol dropped? ITK?

 

[jimsta10]

I get a Dogs of 2016 vibe

Your not alone, half of the northern suburbs are feeling that way atm.

 

[sosos]

Young is like a big old oil tanker,

He needs a few tugs (Saad & Newman) to guide him though the shallow waters…

Lest he go to ground & spring a leak!

Might tire him out.

 

[Stamos]

I get a Dogs of 2016 vibe

We're going to get an armchair ride from the umps?

 

[bourbons]

Why? Are you saying we can't win without Charlie?

I 100% disagree

They can, assuming McKay is right to go. No Owies to go along with no Charlie (or even an injured Charlie) is a big issue though.

But its more the lack of continuity for half the team and the way we finished the season. Better signs/pressure vs West Coast and St Kilda for sure, but its too little too late - essentially we're hoping that they instantly somehow re-capture the form/confidence of early/mid-season with about 6 underdone players coming in, which is what would be needed to beat Brisbane.

I'll be amazed if we get within 6 goals to be honest.

 

[gbatman]

We are the team everyone expects to be beaten easily and exit finals week one. I'm hoping that is not the case. The longer we can survive in this finals series the better we will get.

Brisbane haven't had the best season, but remember they nearly won the premiership last season.

This will be a good win if we get it.

 

[agro]

I get a Carlton of 2024 vibe!!!

 

[Michael Jezz]

Don't need talent to bring intent

But you need to be fit to play with intent

 

[Gethelred]

A part of me loves the romance of it: Doc coming back in, the player who left Brisbane for us, the player who could've been our captain but for injury, the spiritual leader; he beat cancer and injury to lead us to a well deserved victory. It's heady stuff, and it'll tug on the heartstrings; don't you just want to believe it might happen, if only for a moment? Don't you feel it in your bones to the extent that it's inevitable?

The other part of me is filled with dread. If he redoes it, that's his career. Rushing him back is - medically speaking - deeply unwise; your chance of reinjury is significantly higher pre 12 months. I'm not a doctor, but I pay attention. A huge part of the reason we started losing is injuries in matches, and the precise level of motivational lift we regain by his inclusion we risk dropping again should he go down.

It's the script to a sports film, but our cold, ugly world doesn't often run accordingly.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

We're going to get an armchair ride from the umps?

And the injury gods?



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[Manhattanite]

As a diehard and also realistic supporter, I do believe we can win. BUT - those who'll be playing because Owies, Charlie and TDK won't be back (Pitto, Kemp up fwd, Harry, Motlop) need to not just fire, but bring extreme heat. Give Moir a full game, show motlop his own highlights from last year.

Could be the greatest of wins, even better than the SF last year.

Speaking of the Semi - we did beat the Dees in the home and away season by 4 points with a great win only to be topped by the Semi when we beat them by 2 in an even better finish - Melbourne were strong favorites in the Semi and rightly so as they were the better team the week before against Collingwood - but we showed real heart and got it done

Going into the Elimination Final we know that we can and have beaten the Lions at the Gabba - and in quite spectacular fashion too from 46 points down - with Harry kicking it from 45 metres out with 90 seconds to go and us down 5 points

The Lions had won 14 straight at the Gabba until we beat them - and we hadn’t won at the Gabba since 2013 - so this is different to our last 8 interstate finals losses - this team believes


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[Sweet Seventeen]

Hoping to see all of Lord, Binns and Moir in our 23. Just a terrific opportunity for them to experience this game. They have

all played their roles well over the last couple of games. Like to see Jack Martin

21

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

play, proven goal kicker and without

Charlie, we will need him. A forward line like this looks pretty dangerous imo.

Lij Harry Martin

Kennedy Kemp Willo

 

[Juddrockz]

Backs against the wall stuff for the Blues and anything can happen. It's when the pressure is on,we usually buckle.
Blues kick accurately and the Lions kick inaccurately as they often do and we have a massive chance to win.

 

[Coops93]

A part of me loves the romance of it: Doc coming back in, the player who left Brisbane for us, the player who could've been our captain but for injury, the spiritual leader; he beat cancer and injury to lead us to a well deserved victory. It's heady stuff, and it'll tug on the heartstrings; don't you just want to believe it might happen, if only for a moment? Don't you feel it in your bones to the extent that it's inevitable?

The other part of me is filled with dread. If he redoes it, that's his career. Rushing him back is - medically speaking - deeply unwise; your chance of reinjury is significantly higher pre 12 months. I'm not a doctor, but I pay attention. A huge part of the reason we started losing is injuries in matches, and the precise level of motivational lift we regain by his inclusion we risk dropping again should he go down.

It's the script to a sports film, but our cold, ugly world doesn't often run accordingly.

So what I've learned about Docs most recent procedure is that it was a Quad graft (QT) as opposed to a more traditional hamstring graft (HS).

What I understand from that is that the QT has been found to actually be stronger and with a potentially faster recovery time than the Hamstring. Dan McStay also had a QT and managed to play in season despite doing his pre-season and in a timeframe that would normally not be realistic. So, both had the same procedure, and both came back well before traditional methods would suggest.

I think a lot of the anxiety around Doc specifically is perhaps the layman understanding of ACLs - I include myself in this, I've only learned about it since Doc had it.

A brief overview from some reading I've done (mashed together from 2 or 3 journals):

The biomechanical properties of a QT autograft are favorable compared to a bone-patellar tendon-bone (BPTB) or a doubled hamstring (HS) autograft. A QT autograft is associated with less donor site morbidity, such as anterior knee pain and difficulty with kneeling, than a BPTB autograft. It can be harvested as a full or partial thickness graft with or without a bone block (BB).23 Compared with a BPTB autograft, QT is longer, wider and has a higher tensile strength and about 50% more mass.62 Its cross-sectional area is also nearly twice as big as that of a BPTB autograft. Other advantages include less risk of infection compared with HS,64 less anterior knee pain,65 less donor site morbidity, less risk of injury to the infrasaphenous branch and low rate of quad strength deficit

More favourable biochemical connection, stronger thicker and larger & less associated side effects on the knee would suggest faster recovery and quicker strength regeneration due to being able to start rehab sooner and perhaps with more vigour. The downside to this surgery seems to be reduced quad strength - though only nominal. One journal said it's common, another (pasted in the above) says it's minimal, so perhaps that's down to the individual more than an overall side effect.

They've emphasised several times that he's being hitting his strength markers for a little while now so you'd think that weakness has been alleviated. The seemingly stronger graft with a guy who's had the most expert of expert rehab training and education in combination perhaps is the simple answer to an anxiety inducting proposition. Obviously the extra x-factor here is Docs individual professionalism and mindset, which we know is off the charts.

Given all that perhaps this isn't quite the remarkable risk we think it is, but rather a more modern technique combined with an uber professional leading to exceptional outcomes.

edit just came across this nugget. We may even see more of this in the future -

In addition to anatomical individualised surgery, it is likely that, in the near future, there may be a decrease in the use of HS autograft ACLR, given its inferior results,53, 54 and a rise in QT autograft, given its versatility and good outcomes.

Just want to caveat all that with that I work in the medical industry but am not an expert in these areas, the above is just on a couple journals and other more superficial articles I've been able to find.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Hoping to see all of Lord, Binns and Moir in our 23. Just a terrific opportunity for them to experience this game. They have

all played their roles well over the last couple of games. Like to see Jack Martin play, proven goal kicker and without

Charlie, we will need him. A forward line like this looks pretty dangerous imo.

Lij Harry Martin

Kennedy Kemp Willo

i'd rotate Kemp and Harry out of the square....both are quick and mobile.

Both well capable of leading - we must avoid the bomb it onto the forwards' heads play!!!

Both can take a grab.

Martin, Williams as the front and centre types. Moir as the sub?

Kennedy, Hollands other marking options.

 

[Arr0w]

i'd rotate Kemp and Harry out of the square....both are quick and mobile.

Both can take a grab.

Martin, Williams as the front and centre types.

Kennedy, Hollands other marking options.

I'd get Kemp to harass Andrews, generally playing 30-50 metres out, which would also suit our setup

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I'd get Kemp to harass Andrews, generally playing 30-50 metres out, which would also suit our setup

Andrews appears to play a bit like Moore - unaccountable.

 

[passmark]

We're going to get an armchair ride from the umps?

Umps will be doing a hell of a lot more heavy lifting to get us on the podium.

 

[passmark]

I'd get Kemp to harass Andrews, generally playing 30-50 metres out, which would also suit our setup

Seems often the defensive forward becomes even more effective than if he played the traditional role.

 

[Stamos]

Umps will be doing a hell of a lot more heavy lifting to get us on the podium.

Maybe if they just don't kneecap us like they did against the Saints we'll go ok.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I'm thinking that Brisbane in Brisbane, and with a lot of changes in our team this week - will be our biggest hurdle for this finals series.

Just win this one - I don't mind how - and then we'll go from strength to strength

Just looking at the team, this week's team may be our best team that we've fielded all year.

Let's go Baggers!!!

 

[Ezayyak]

Andrews appears to play a bit like Moore - unaccountable.

If it wasn't for Andrews in the first qtr of the final last year we would have put the game to bed at qtr time.

 

[myblueroan]

I like it better when we’re the hunters

I think that's because our boys prefer it.

 

[Chief]

 

[gbatman]

Three things that got us last season in the prelim.

1. Their mobility in the centre. Shorter more mobile mids have taken advantage of our midfield being bigger, taller and less agile. Brisbane made us look like witches hats in last year's final. Can we avoid that? I think Lord provides a real point of difference for us. In the OR Jack Carroll came on and was a really big point of difference.

Last year we jumped out to a 5 goal lead with our midfield on top. When they had their turn on top in the midfield, which happens in most games, they hurt us more than we hurt them and for longer. All we needed to do was be really good defensively and apply pressure when they were winning the ball but we were unable to do so. This year that needs to chance.

2. Their ruck dominance. It was on at the very first bounce last year as McInerney reached over Pittonet to hit a long and controlled hitout to their advantage. McInerney is really tall and has a massive reach. He's on of the leading hitout ruckmen in the league. His control, putting the ball out wide and to advantage of their mids when we wanted it in close and to our advantage or 50/50 was a massive reason we lost. We know we are weak when the opposition get it in their hands at stoppage. Particularly shorter more agile players like Neale.

We aren't going to beat them in the ruck but the hitouts need to be uncontrolled. They need to go to 50/50 situations. In this year's OR we were able to do that with DeKoning jumping into McInerney and breaking even with him.

Will we have TDK or will Pittonet be able to give us what we need to win this game?


3. Their half back line. McKenna and Coleman ripped us apart with run and dash off half back. I felt at the time that dropping Cuningham and Owies, who are accountable was a blunder. This year things will be different but will we be better? The top sides have excellent two way running half back lines and if you can stop that, you can beat them.

Our half forwards need to be accountable. They have a big job, to kick and setup goals but also run hard defensively. I feel Cincotta could have a big role to play here if he returns to the forward line. I think Wilmot and Zorko will be the players we need to be keeping an eye on that they aren't getting too much of it.

Cuningham, Fogarty and Owies played in the OR who are good defensively. Coleman was injured. So we had a point of difference here. Will we be as strong defensively? I can see us playing Fantasia and Cincotta at half forward if problems arise however this does take a fair bit away from our offensive game. I can't be sure what Williams is like defensively.