Preview 2024 Elimination Final Carlton vs Brisbane Saturday 7th September 7:30PM AEST @ The Gabba

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …

AFL team news: Blues welcome back six

Tom De Koning is one of half a dozen of Carlton inclusions for the elimination final.

www.carltonfc.com.au

6 Changes :-

 

[Gointocarlton]

Dont believe all that media bs saying Brisbane is a sure thing..

Apply pressure at every contest, win the ball, advance it forward and stay front and centre. The boys should have enough juice in the tank to do this for 4 qtrs - no excuses.

Finals fever is different, just get it done fellas!

Hoyne said as much, apply pressure to Bris at 180 or more and they only win 40% of their games.
Hunt, pressure, tackle hard, win contested footy.

 

[Matty411]

Referring to the return of players for the first final, and playing away from home

Ah yep. What chance do you give us?

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Why? Are you saying we can't win without Charlie?

I 100% disagree

Maybe we can win without Charlie. But without Charlie, TDK and the Temu version of Walsh, we are no chance.

 

[Arr0w]

Ah yep. What chance do you give us?

Strong chance, but still a 50/50 game

 

[RPCB]

We're going to get an armchair ride from the umps?

 

[Arr0w]

Andrews appears to play a bit like Moore - unaccountable.

That's Andrews strength when allowed to peel off unopposed, but struggles somewhat when being engaged by a negating opponent

 

[Coops93]

Hoyne said as much, apply pressure to Bris at 180 or more and they only win 40% of their games.
Hunt, pressure, tackle hard, win contested footy.

I'm not sure it's quite as simple as that - it's not as though teams haven't tried or wanted to apply pressure, but when playing the chip mark game the pressure numbers will be 0 until the ball hits the deck. The pressure being higher or lower than 180 is as much about Brisbane as it is about the opposition.

Pressure, tackling and winning contested footy won't help when they're just chipping it around. Structure and system will be as, if not more, important to winning. Our structure has to shut down the uncontested marking to allow the contested and tackling game to have an impact.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Maybe if they just don't kneecap us like they did against the Saints we'll go ok.

I’m very confident none of those 4 peanuts will be umpiring in the finals series


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[teagueyubeauty]

If it wasn't for Andrews in the first qtr of the final last year we would have put the game to bed at qtr time.

Precisely, we should have been 7/8 goals up. Andrew’s was immense in that first quarter


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[Stamos]

Precisely, we should have been 7/8 goals up. Andrew’s was immense in that first quarter

Although we helped him out by kicking it straight to him

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Although we helped him out by kicking it straight to him

This is true but their team defence really helps

I am by no means a good footballer, but I always got heaps of the ball playing in defence (I’m just frankly not a good user at all) and it’s because in lower leagues it’s easy to see where a kick is going to go as they play in straight lines

Brisbane are great at making you play in straight lines too, and Harris has really good closing speed to tease space that isn’t really there

I really think if we have an accountable, self sacrificing forward who can play on him it’ll really aide our chances

 

[haveago]

We were rank outsiders in Rd 0 also and that worked out OK.

Arguably a better line up going to play Saturday night.

Rd 0 No Weiters, Walsh, Elijah to name just three.

Not sure how these posters who are saying that TDK and Charlie won't play know this?

We won't know till they run out 100% who is in or out and that is how it should be in a final.

Every chance there could be late changes.
Be interesting who gets on the plane........I imagine that will be tomorrow?

 

[Coops93]

Although we helped him out by kicking it straight to him

We seem to have a habit of doing that to intercept defenders. Hopefully we keep playing like we did without H and Charlie even when they're back and look for short targets or leads instead of bombing it right to the interceptors.

 

[Pinnell]

Three things that got us last season in the prelim.

1. Their mobility in the centre. Shorter more mobile mids have taken advantage of our midfield being bigger, taller and less agile. Brisbane made us look like witches hats in last year's final. Can we avoid that? I think Lord provides a real point of difference for us. In the OR Jack Carroll came on and was a really big point of difference.

Last year we jumped out to a 5 goal lead with our midfield on top. When they had their turn on top in the midfield, which happens in most games, they hurt us more than we hurt them and for longer. All we needed to do was be really good defensively and apply pressure when they were winning the ball but we were unable to do so. This year that needs to chance.

2. Their ruck dominance. It was on at the very first bounce last year as McInerney reached over Pittonet to hit a long and controlled hitout to their advantage. McInerney is really tall and has a massive reach. He's on of the leading hitout ruckmen in the league. His control, putting the ball out wide and to advantage of their mids when we wanted it in close and to our advantage or 50/50 was a massive reason we lost. We know we are weak when the opposition get it in their hands at stoppage. Particularly shorter more agile players like Neale.

We aren't going to beat them in the ruck but the hitouts need to be uncontrolled. They need to go to 50/50 situations. In this year's OR we were able to do that with DeKoning jumping into McInerney and breaking even with him.

Will we have TDK or will Pittonet be able to give us what we need to win this game?


3. Their half back line. McKenna and Coleman ripped us apart with run and dash off half back. I felt at the time that dropping Cuningham and Owies, who are accountable was a blunder. This year things will be different but will we be better? The top sides have excellent two way running half back lines and if you can stop that, you can beat them.

Our half forwards need to be accountable. They have a big job, to kick and setup goals but also run hard defensively. I feel Cincotta could have a big role to play here if he returns to the forward line. I think Wilmot and Zorko will be the players we need to be keeping an eye on that they aren't getting too much of it.

Cuningham, Fogarty and Owies played in the OR who are good defensively. Coleman was injured. So we had a point of difference here. Will we be as strong defensively? I can see us playing Fantasia and Cincotta at half forward if problems arise however this does take a fair bit away from our offensive game. I can't be sure what Williams is like defensively.

In the first Q our pressure was well over 200 according to CD. We smashed them. It dropped below 160 from that point and beyond. Personally, I think it was fatigue that cost us the game more than anything, aside from Coleman cutting us to pieces off half back. We were spent from the two weeks prior (and 10 weeks before that). If we can maintain that sort of pressure on Saturday we can knock them off for sure.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Umps will be doing a hell of a lot more heavy lifting to get us on the podium.

That’s reminds me - has the bank transfer been made?

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

So what I've learned about Docs most recent procedure is that it was a Quad graft (QT) as opposed to a more traditional hamstring graft (HS).

What I understand from that is that the QT has been found to actually be stronger and with a potentially faster recovery time than the Hamstring. Dan McStay also had a QT and managed to play in season despite doing his pre-season and in a timeframe that would normally not be realistic. So, both had the same procedure, and both came back well before traditional methods would suggest.

I think a lot of the anxiety around Doc specifically is perhaps the layman understanding of ACLs - I include myself in this, I've only learned about it since Doc had it.

A brief overview from some reading I've done (mashed together from 2 or 3 journals):



More favourable biochemical connection, stronger thicker and larger & less associated side effects on the knee would suggest faster recovery and quicker strength regeneration due to being able to start rehab sooner and perhaps with more vigour. The downside to this surgery seems to be reduced quad strength - though only nominal. One journal said it's common, another (pasted in the above) says it's minimal, so perhaps that's down to the individual more than an overall side effect.

They've emphasised several times that he's being hitting his strength markers for a little while now so you'd think that weakness has been alleviated. The seemingly stronger graft with a guy who's had the most expert of expert rehab training and education in combination perhaps is the simple answer to an anxiety inducting proposition. Obviously the extra x-factor here is Docs individual professionalism and mindset, which we know is off the charts.

Given all that perhaps this isn't quite the remarkable risk we think it is, but rather a more modern technique combined with an uber professional leading to exceptional outcomes.

edit just came across this nugget. We may even see more of this in the future -



Just want to caveat all that with that I work in the medical industry but am not an expert in these areas, the above is just on a couple journals and other more superficial articles I've been able to find.

 

[Kernafides]

I liked the hoyne stat last night we have played in 20 180 rating games.... they have played in 10 and won only 4.... bring the heat

 

[Stamos]

I liked the hoyne stat last night we have played in 20 180 rating games.... they have played in 10 and won only 4.... bring the heat

8 – Carlton
“Carlton’s pressure this year is the third best of any team in the competition. 180 is the is the AFL average for pressure rating, and in 20 of their 23 matches, Carlton has rated higher than 180 which is significant. But Brisbane has only been on the other side of a pressure rating of 180 or more 10 times this year. In those 10 games, they only have a 40 per cent win rate. If Carlton brings their pressure and have the rating above 180, it’ll give them a chance of beating Brisbane. But if they don’t do that, I think it's going to be a pretty bleak night.”

Why not us? Champion Data details the reasons why each top 8 team can win the flag

“They’ve got the best profile in the game.”

www.sen.com.au

 

[Big Red is back]

Hoping to see all of Lord, Binns and Moir in our 23. Just a terrific opportunity for them to experience this game. They have

all played their roles well over the last couple of games. Like to see Jack Martin play, proven goal kicker and without

Charlie, we will need him. A forward line like this looks pretty dangerous imo.

Lij Harry Martin

Kennedy Kemp Willo

Based on that we will be playing about 28 players.....

 

[Ezayyak]

I liked the hoyne stat last night we have played in 20 180 rating games.... they have played in 10 and won only 4.... bring the heat

Our heat is usually generated from forward pressure. That's the only concern of playing Charlie, he isn't so he will be a liability defensively. No Fogarty as well, who I think is our number 1 pressure forward. Our pressure has been terrific the last 2 weeks, we come with the same that's half the battle. The other half is to maintain what we've learned about not bombing it inside 50 the last few weeks.

Reckon we get those two in order, we will win.

 

[SurreyBlue]

I liked the hoyne stat last night we have played in 20 180 rating games.... they have played in 10 and won only 4.... bring the heat

If this group is switched on (as per last year's finals against Sydney and Melbourne) we are a hard team to beat.
The downside is - we have struggled to get our minds right this year.
I'm still confident, even without Charlie or TdK or etc, we will be up for this.
We have some real talent to go far......

 

[Soapy V]

Maybe we can win without Charlie. But without Charlie, TDK and the Temu version of Walsh, we are no chance.

The way we have played last 2 weeks has given me real hope.

We can talk about who's out BUT IMO any team that has Cripps McKay Walsh Weitering McGovern Acres Docherty Elijah in their side can beat anyone

 

[xDQ82x]

Interesting. I was just about to post message I got is that will be likely be named and given until Saturday to prove himself.

I keep being told he needs 6-8 weeks rest

Whatever is happening it’s obvious he won’t be near 100% fit.

What's the bet he is named but pulls out late. Not sure why teams bother with the ducks and drakes.

But I'm told they didn't get up.

Things change so could be wrong.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Been thinking about if Charlie is out, how we go about it and think Kennedy may play forward with stints in the midfield. I don’t think I’d be bringing Martin in unless he is extremely close to 100%

HF: EHollands Harry Kennedy
F: Williams Kemp Motlop

I really like what Kennedy brings and although not a true forward, he is smart and we need that in our forward line this week

 

[Soapy V]

What's the bet he is named but pulls out late. Not sure why teams bother with the ducks and drakes.

But I'm told they didn't get up.

Things change so could be wrong.

You could well be right. Apparently at training he did some light runs throughs and a bit of kicking but nothing strenuous.

I'm confident that what I am told about needing rest is correct.

Personally, I hope they don't play him. He has really struggled with it and Lions will work off him and he becomes predictable. I like the idea of a smaller more mobile forward line with McKay Kemp & Kennedy/Cripps supported by Elijah Williams Durdin & Fantasia