Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup Day (3200m)no after timing posts.

[Areyoufireal]

Race order fore those on the same race multi places..

Winner: Knight's Choice
2: Warp Speed
3: Okita Soushi
4: Zardozi
5: Absurde
6: Circle of Fire
7: Fancy Man
8: Land Legend
9: Buckaroo
10: Kovalica
11: Vauban
12: Onesmoothoperator
13: Valiant King
14: Sea King
15: Interpretation
16: Sharp 'N' Smart
17: Trust In You
18: Mostly Cloudy
19: Manzoice
20: Positivity
21: The Map
22: Saint George
23: Just Fine

 

[Chism]

Take George off these power rankings and it is a one paced plodder. You need some turn of foot to win a MC.

 

[balmainforever]

Take George off these power rankings and it is a one paced plodder. You meed some turn of foot to win a MC.

Didn’t look like it handled the wet.

 

[toxic]

Didn’t look like it handled the wet.

Didn't look like it handled
The grass
The wet
The barrier
The jockey
The strapper
The saddle

 

[Lunchtime]

Bart Cummings/Melbourne Cup Double

2016: Almandin
2000: Brew
1970: Baghdad Note

 

[Chism]

Didn’t look like it handled the wet.

Track is still a Good 4.

If a bit of spit on the track means it turns in a performance like that just put the screen up or take it back to the UK where it seems to go well.

Bates gave it a good ride as well from #19 and it had cover and every chance to run on.

 

[FFB1]

Bart Cummings/Melbourne Cup Double

2016: Almandin
2000: Brew
1970: Baghdad Note

None of them led them the whole way like it did. Rapt for my mate who has a small share in it, not for my MC bet George

 

[Lunchtime]

None of them led them the whole way like it did. Rapt for my mate who has a small share in it, not for my MC bet George

I wouldn't have thought Just Fine wasn't as good as Almandin.

But as history shows, the race really isn't that good of a guide for the Melbourne Cup.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Track is still a Good 4.

If a bit of spit on the track means it turns in a performance like that just put the screen up or take it back to the UK where it seems to go well.

Bates gave it a good ride as well from #19 and it had cover and every chance to run on.

Track is a Soft 6. The SB app, if you’re going off that, has been cooked for weeks and shows every track as a Good 4.

 

[Chism]

Track is a Soft 6. The SB app, if you’re going off that, has been cooked for weeks and shows every track as a Good 4.

Yeah i was.

I want my money back Shitbet!

 

[FFB1]

That 7mm they put on last night the difference

 

[mcs095]

St George looked like the rugby league team - just a plodder when the heat was turned on. Was well placed and had a good run and offered zilch.

 

[FFB1]

I wouldn't have thought Just Fine wasn't as good as Almandin.

But as history shows, the race really isn't that good of a guide for the Melbourne Cup.

Only saving grace for George is that relatively poor double record. Needed him to show more than he did given he’s borderline without attrition (if he progresses).

 

[Jugada]

St George going full Lionel getting progressively more and more shit out here

 

[Jugada]

Not feeling good about the locals chances in any features at the moment tbh

 

[cruskits]

We need a full Paris rundown of remaining horses… brutal examination of what’s left with no holding back.

 

[Lunchtime]

Three horses receive weight penalties after weekend feature wins

Racing Victoria (RV) Head of Handicapping David Hegan has announced weight penalties in the Sportsbet Caulfield Cup (2400m) and/or Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) for Ceolwulf, Just Fine and Land Legend after their feature race triumphs on Saturday, 5 October.

www.racingvictoria.com.au

 

[FFB1]

We need a full Paris rundown of remaining horses… brutal examination of what’s left with no holding back.

Jugada doing his best.

Sounds like George won’t be progressing, doesn’t come as a surprise (Interpretation ran better and it’s got none). V King was a good run. Struggling to rate the locals now.

 

[cruskits]

Jugada doing his best.

Sounds like George won’t be progressing, doesn’t come as a surprise (Interpretation ran better and it’s got none). V King was a good run. Struggling to rate the locals now.

Yeah no knock on Jugada at all. Had a couple of frothies before I wrote that. Really appreciate all the contributions on here this time of year.

Was reading through the 2023 thread the other day. Great stuff.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

​

Just started to get serious about some proper study for the cup and it appears Jan Brueghel has lengths on the rest of the field. Granted the UK 3 year olds get a bit more weight after the wins of Rekindling 51.5 and Cross Counter 51 but neither horse had won a group 1 and were unbeaten yet won stronger cups than the likely 2024 edition.

Rekindling had 1 kg less than JB in the St Ledger and only ran 4th in St ledger.
The 54 kgs allotted to JB a St Ledger winner is a very winnable weight going into the race with a lot of superior form to Rekindling and CC.

The other big plus is Blue Stocking 2024 Arc winner won a Group 1 in the UK on the same day as JB won a group 3 over 2000 metres and JB ran over second quicker than Blue Stocking.

If he runs anywhere near his UK form he just wins.

 

[Jugada]

​

Just started to get serious about some proper study for the cup and it appears Jan Brueghel has lengths on the rest of the field. Granted the UK 3 year olds get a bit more weight after the wins of Rekindling 51.5 and Cross Counter 51 but neither horse had won a group 1 and were unbeaten yet won stronger cups than the likely 2024 edition.

Rekindling had 1 kg less than JB in the St Ledger and only ran 4th in St ledger.
The 54 kgs allotted to JB a St Ledger winner is a very winnable weight going into the race with a lot of superior form to Rekindling and CC.

The other big plus is Blue Stocking 2024 Arc winner won a Group 1 in the UK on the same day as JB won a group 3 over 2000 metres and JB ran over second quicker than Blue Stocking.

If he runs anywhere near his UK form he just wins.

Obviously a quality horse but my biggest knock on him is that fact he lacks tactical speed and doesn't have a fast change up of gears which is far from ideal for Australian racing.

All three races since his debut he has been a short favourite in small fields and pumped along from a long way out and just out toughing them by a neck in all three races.

54kg is a lot for a 3yo as well. There were plenty on here that thought DL was put in take out in his year despite the weight

 

[cruskits]

Current Rankings

1. Via Sistina
2. Jan Brueghel
3. Point King
4. Absurde
5. Warp Speed
6. Land Legend
7. Buckaroo

What races have we got left over the next 4 weeks:

• Herbert Power
• Caufield Cup
• Geelong Cup
• MV Cup
• Cox Plate
• the time honoured Bendigo Cup

 

[Jugada]

Current Rankings

1. Via Sistina
2. Jan Brueghel
3. Point King
4. Absurde
5. Warp Speed
6. Land Legend
7. Buckaroo

What races have we got left over the next 4 weeks:

• Herbert Power
• Caufield Cup
• Geelong Cup
• MV Cup
• Cox Plate
• the time honoured Bendigo Cup

The chances of Via Sistina lining up would have to be pretty much zero and Buckaroo probably not that much more likely

 

[Jamz]

If Land Legend is in your calculations Zardozi has to be there too.

Deadset sat 3 wide in the Metrop and had the temerity to go hammer and tong down the Randwick straight to only get outbobbed by Land Legend who had her back in the run (they gapped the rest). You could argue she should have won it in the protest room.

 

[cruskits]

The chances of Via Sistina lining up would have to be pretty much zero and Buckaroo probably not that much more likely

Yep agree about Via Sistina, just weird that her runs are pretty much identical to Veery Elleegants 2021 MC win. Same weekend gaps as 2021, 3 WFA races and 1 handicap. Both quality mares.

Would be a long shot but he has done last minute in the past….

‘I didn’t want to run her’: Waller’s startling admission over Verry Elleegant’s Cup triumph

While other Sydney-based trainers and even Ireland’s Joseph O’Brien made last-minute dashes to Melbourne, the champion conditioner watched his first Cup victory from home.

www.theage.com.au

 

[cruskits]

Y

If Land Legend is in your calculations Zardozi has to be there too.

Deadset sat 3 wide in the Metrop and had the temerity to go hammer and tong down the Randwick straight to only get outbobbed by Land Legend who had her back in the run (they gapped the rest). You could argue she should have won it in the protest room.

Yeah Zardozi was a ripper run, probably the best bet at the moment for the CC at $12. Just went Land Legend for now as it comes out of a son of Galileo and Zardozi is out is out of Kingman.

Zardozi to meet LL 3kg better at the MC (as long as it doesn’t win the CC). Can easily see this flipping after CC but will wait and see.