List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[Snuffaluphagus]

Its a very simple scenario really. It's Oct 2025. Warner wants to go home to Perth. Nominates Freo because he doesn't want to go to a team that's been in the bottom 4 for 4 seasons. Freo have pick 16 because we lost a prelim, and an F1. WC have 3 and and an F1 plus a high second. Our best offer therefor is basically 16 and 16. Now its a situation where Sydney can just flat out refuse to trade him to Freo on those terms and say to his management "Well he wants to go Perth, and he can still go, but he's going to WC unless you want a shitfight game of chicken about the PSD, or Freo cough up a player we want."

If one of our picks is top 8 or 10 then all this goes away.

No, they cant, show me when that has ever happened. Two firsts is the entry price, always has been.

 

[Heave Ho Bro]

That's not how it works, otherwise every trade would be a third rounder. What another club would offer if negotiations broke down is a factor in the price like it or not.
To get Warner we will need an offer that is the same or near enough in value to West Coasts 2025 first round pick plus some more. Two pick 15s isn't that.

Even if it has to be two firsts and a second it gets done if he chooses us. Obviously you can't just offer a third as that would be taking the piss and a tad disrespectful. But two firsts even if they are in the teens is plenty with a second chucked in.

 

[FreoMatt]

He had definitively shown more than his brother has at the same point in their career. Corey has only played 9 games total. Chad played 13 in his second season and only went out of the team through injury around the halfway mark of the year, before coming back in the finals. Averaged 16 touches and got a brownlow vote. Corey mostly toiling away in seconds.

Corey has been injured and I didn’t say Corey had shown as much as Chad, I said “Chad hadn’t shown a lot” to tell us he would be as good as he is now. I’m not really interested in your petty BS I’m just saying from what I’ve seen I think he will be ok.


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[Snuffaluphagus]

Even if it has to be two firsts and a second it gets done if he chooses us. Obviously you can't just offer a third as that would be taking the piss and a tad disrespectful. But two firsts even if they are in the teens is plenty with a second chucked in.

I mean, it's extortionate unders all things going according to plan but that's Sydney's choice for not doing it this year

 

[Heave Ho Bro]

I mean, it's extortionate unders all things going according to plan but that's Sydney's choice for not doing it this year

A lot can change in 12 months. I hate the idea of trading into next year and he doesn't come anyway and we've lost 12 months of potential development into a draftee.

 

[wakojako]

No, they cant, show me when that has ever happened. Two firsts is the entry price, always has been.

I think y'all are getting caught up on the wrong issue regarding Warner. We have the picks to get it done next year.

West Coast can easily out bid us in salary. There is a scenario where they offer $300k+ a year more than what we offer to Warner. Suddenly, any guarantees made to Freo are suddenly worth nothing because who wouldn't take that offer? Not to mention who knows if we have to pay for Corey's salary as well.

 

[DocT]

I think y'all are getting caught up on the wrong issue regarding Warner. We have the picks to get it done next year.

West Coast can easily out bid us in salary. There is a scenario where they offer $300k+ a year more than what we offer to Warner. Suddenly, any guarantees made to Freo are suddenly worth nothing because who wouldn't take that offer? Not to mention who knows if we have to pay for Corey's salary as well.

Who wouldn't take that offer? Someone who is already satisfied with a s**t load of money and would rather play for a premiership than for the middle of the table for their prime years.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think y'all are getting caught up on the wrong issue regarding Warner. We have the picks to get it done next year.

West Coast can easily out bid us in salary. There is a scenario where they offer $300k+ a year more than what we offer to Warner. Suddenly, any guarantees made to Freo are suddenly worth nothing because who wouldn't take that offer? Not to mention who knows if we have to pay for Corey's salary as well.

Players choose an option all the time for less money. If he wants the most money we can't compete. Not sure it's that's straightforward though.

 

[guidodp15]

Players choose an option all the time for less money. If he wants the most money we can't compete. Not sure it's that's straightforward though.

When Kelly went to Weat Coast quite a few players took pay cuts to get him more money. I don’t see our boys saying no if that takes us to the next level.

Before anyone calls me out for BS I had a friend who is best friends with a current west coast players

 

[dont bowl there]

Players choose an option all the time for less money. If he wants the most money we can't compete. Not sure it's that's straightforward though.

It will be a factor but if he wants to come to Fremantle he will be accepting less cash, we will still need to pay him big bucks though.

 

[Heave Ho Bro]

If it comes down to purely money we have no shot anyway. WC can offer 1.5m a year easily.

But judging by his reaction to losing that GF I'd bet he wants to win not play in a bottom 4 team during his prime years.

 

[CapitalA]

Its a very simple scenario really. It's Oct 2025. Warner wants to go home to Perth. Nominates Freo because he doesn't want to go to a team that's been in the bottom 4 for 4 seasons. Freo have pick 16 because we lost a prelim, and an F1. WC have 3 and and an F1 plus a high second. Our best offer therefor is basically 16 and 16. Now its a situation where Sydney can just flat out refuse to trade him to Freo on those terms and say to his management "Well he wants to go Perth, and he can still go, but he's going to WC unless you want a shitfight game of chicken about the PSD, or Freo cough up a player we want."

If one of our picks is top 8 or 10 then all this goes away.

Scenario 2:
Freo pick up Bolton and Berry. Both make a significant impact in our forward half. O'Driscoll becomes a solid contributor in Warner's role so much so that the slight upgrade we get from Warner is not worth giving up two 1sts let alone a norf top 3 pick.
We make a preliminary.
We now no longer need to sell the farm for Warner and can either target another need or go to the draft with our full suite of picks.

 

[Ge3ks]

Scenario 2:
Freo pick up Bolton and Berry. Both make a significant impact in our forward half. O'Driscoll becomes a solid contributor in Warner's role so much so that the slight upgrade we get from Warner is not worth giving up two 1sts let alone a norf top 3 pick.
We make a preliminary.*
We now no longer need to sell the farm for Warner and can either target another need or go to the draft with our full suite of picks.

*We win the grand final.

 

[Paracleet]

Scenario 2:
Freo pick up Bolton and Berry. Both make a significant impact in our forward half. O'Driscoll becomes a solid contributor in Warner's role so much so that the slight upgrade we get from Warner is not worth giving up two 1sts let alone a norf top 3 pick.
We make a preliminary.
We now no longer need to sell the farm for Warner and can either target another need or go to the draft with our full suite of picks.

My actual view is I don't see us getting Warner, I was just talking hypotheticals. Whatever the trade price I don't see how he fits in our cap compared to what WC would be prepared to shell out.

 

[Shoeless Joe]

My actual view is I don't see us getting Warner, I was just talking hypotheticals. Whatever the trade price I don't see how he fits in our cap compared to what WC would be prepared to shell out.

Agree they can blow us out of the water regarding contract price but I'm pretty sure Warner has committed to us

My biggest concern is that WC somehow performs a miracle in 2025 and do a last to top four as in 2010/11.

Remember- they do have the messiah playing for them


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[wakojako]

It will be a factor but if he wants to come to Fremantle he will be accepting less cash, we will still need to pay him big bucks though.

If the max we can offer is $1.2m and they offer $1.5m for 8 years, that's an extra $2.4m dollars. That's also not including the sponsorship money from HJs. Eagles will make him filthy rich and idk if winning a premiership as a player is worth $2.5m plus. We aren't even guaranteed to win one. That's why we shouldn't be banking on any guarantees made.

 

[WilloTree]

Needs more Bontempelli

 

[Moo]

If he nominates us it doesn't matter what WC offer. Sydney have to take what we have.

It does matter.

If we offer pick 16 and WC offer pick 2 - Sydney may be able to convince him to stay or just make it a drawn out battle.

If we have our 1st and a top 8 pick next year - it's a lot easier.

I'm not suggesting stockpiling a ton of future picks - however floating the remaining picks on draft night as gettable ....if I can convert 10 into a F1 and perhaps more or 27 into a late F1 - I'm doing it.

I'm actually advocating having your cake and eating it too. If we get to 10 and there is a player we really rate ....we take them.

 

[Paracleet]

No, they cant, show me when that has ever happened. Two firsts is the entry price, always has been.

Because its not a thing that actually happens literally, its just something everyone involved understands as being part of the framework of the negotiation. Same way that the preseason draft threat helps to shape trade prices despite it very rarely ever actually being actually used in practice.
In my view this sort of thing is the only reasonable explanation for why the trade prices for Kelly and later Jackson were as high as they were. Just saying it was bad trading because they're bad at it doesn't seem like a powerful explanation to me.

 

[Superkoops]

A lot can change in 12 months. I hate the idea of trading into next year and he doesn't come anyway and we've lost 12 months of potential development into a draftee.

I agree. Whilst at this point it appears more likely than not that Warner will request to return to WA but circumstances change and Sydney accommodate a few things, the girlfriend gets a local new job etc. No guarantee that he doesn’t change his mind and extend.

Then as you say WC may go all chips in and regardless of pick exchange giving us a top 10 pick for 2025 we will be outbid from a trade price perspective by WC. Also as mentioned you make it work with what you got. Two first round picks plus change.

If Kossie is no go then I’d rather we go to the draft with pick 10 and pick best available. A F2 to death ride might be useful but rather we did whilst retaining pick 10.

 

[Paracleet]

Agree they can blow us out of the water regarding contract price but I'm pretty sure Warner has committed to us

My biggest concern is that WC somehow performs a miracle in 2025 and do a last to top four as in 2010/11.

Remember- they do have the messiah playing for them


On SM-G996B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'm not too concerned about that, but them showing 'improvement' is a real risk (I.E. dead cat bounce improvement driven by a bunch of 30 year old mids staying on the park).

 

[Moo]

Who cares, the Swans can't trade Warner to the Eagles if he wants to come to Fremantle regardless of the picks. We won't miss out on Warner due to picks, we might due to salary which is why it's so important for the Tigers to pay part of Boltons.

He could also decide to stay....especially if we crap the bed and sack the coach.

Bolton in would be one big piece.

I just pray Melbourne flick the switch on a rebuild.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Because its not a thing that actually happens literally, its just something everyone involved understands as being part of the framework of the negotiation. Same way that the preseason draft threat helps to shape trade prices despite it very rarely ever actually being actually used in practice.
In my view this sort of thing is the only reasonable explanation for why the trade prices for Kelly and later Jackson were as high as they were. Just saying it was bad trading because they're bad at it doesn't seem like a powerful explanation to me.

Jackson seems a fine comparison, still got done despite where we finished and how do you justify what Adelaide and Geelong paid for Dawson and Cameron?

Seriously, if it happens to us I'll be almost done with the AFL. It would be absolute horseshit and doesnt happen to anyone else

 

[dont bowl there]

He could also decide to stay....especially if we crap the bed and sack the coach.

Bolton in would be one big piece.

I just pray Melbourne flick the switch on a rebuild.

Exactly, it's another reason why I wouldn't push any of the 2024 first round picks into 2025. Better off getting talent in ASAP in what is considered a very good draft.

 

[Alfonz]

I'm not too concerned about that, but them showing 'improvement' is a real risk (I.E. dead cat bounce improvement driven by a bunch of 30 year old mids staying on the park).

It could happen. They were conditional in their effort last year. When they did try, they could be competitive. Both times they played us, plus the odd game like against Brisbane in their first (?) game with Schofield. If they played like that all year, they would win quite a few games and look like they are on the rise.